22: Recognize the situation clearly and give up fantasy.

The following article comes from the trend of Zhigu. The author Zhigu Jun

Deep thinking under the brilliant lights

In one year, China people will say goodbye to the whole and poverty.

Ma Yun said that he had to receive loan calls from five friends in the last day, and 1 friends were selling houses in a week. Compared with Ma Yun's friends, the order of magnitude of listed companies queuing to sell several suites for shell protection is slightly weaker. It's really not easy for everyone. It's Sun Yuchen's turn to help Wang Sicong pay his debts. Dilraba, a first-line flower, has blown herself up for eight months, and even Liu Yonghao, who made a fortune, feels that 219 is so difficult.

Anyway, ordinary people dare not say anything or ask anything, and they just want to take the whole family out of poverty and run towards a well-off society.

When you get rich, you should also pay attention to your posture, and you can't show off too much as cannon fodder. Recently, I talked with many friends about how to live in 22, and found that the anxiety of the rich, the middle class and the bottom class is completely different, and the coping strategies are also very different. This is also what I want to talk to you today.

Recently, I have always heard that in the era of negative interest rates, there is an opportunity to counterattack. In this regard, I just want to throw this picture away.

recognize the situation and give up the illusion

In the era of low income, no class can sit back and relax.

1219 is just a difficult beginning.

You have no idea how excellent and strong you are to successfully survive this turbulent year.

The flame of "Yellow Vest" has gone out of Paris, France, which loves revolution, and the street protest movement has evolved into a global wave. If you don't accept it, you will do it, and if you are unhappy, you will be scared to death.

The United States tore up Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and "the landmark US-Russia arms control treaty is dead", and the fairy is out of control, and the imp suffers at any time;

I don't know how many times the big countries fought back and forth. Huawei's spare tire chips all turned positive overnight, and the industrial chain was disrupted. It seems that the hook is not far away.

The neighbors next door were caught in a scuffle, and Japan kicked South Korea out of the "white list" of trade, so we didn't even care to watch the movie. The future of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area is still so difficult.

The Federal Reserve made a 18-degree U-turn and sent out a gift package to cut interest rates for the first time in 1 years, which started the global interest rate cut tide. In fact, the major central banks are at the end of the road ...

Fortunately, at the end of the year, the two major time bombs of the global economy, Brexit and Sino-US negotiations, all received good news.

At this time, only a few rational people can convince us that human beings are still looking up at the starry sky-when astronomers captured the world's first photo of a black hole, and when Musk's Falcon heavy rocket brought human beings closer to Mars. It is never power or money that deserves our respect.

"Maybe you have no interest in politics, but politics is very interested in you." Now is such a passive era.

Let's see what we have passively experienced-

A shares have once again experienced a familiar 1,-share limit. Fortunately, loyal leeks have stood the test and can still eat meat structurally;

The property market turned against each other at the beginning of the year, and it was like a dream to get rich from real estate investment. The 1 suites in Hegang could not be exchanged for a bathroom in Shenzhen Bay.

both onshore and offshore RMB once broke the psychological barrier of 7., and I dare not think how much money it is in my hand;

The money for raising a national football team might as well be spent on raising pigs that were robbed in this animal year. However, on second thought, it is the national football team that is the most difficult certainty in this era, and it can even bring peace and laughter to war-torn Syria.

Last year, Wang Xing of Meituan exported a famous saying to China, which has been sung for a whole year. "219 is the worst year in the past ten years, but it is the best year in the next ten years." It's really frustrating with a little provocative flame.

What tickles people most is the prediction of Nicholas Jin Tao, the "king of cycles". He said that 219 is the year of the Compaq cycle. When the crisis comes, global assets will fall to the lowest point. Life depends on Kangbo to make a fortune, so 219 is also a rare opportunity among the only three wealth opportunities in life. The first opportunity after 85 will become a middle class if you seize it.

It's not good to have a god's fingers to count. In recent years, there have been many human factors in the intervention cycle, such as Trump's election, so it has to be postponed again in the year of eternal doom. Does this mean that the opportunity to make a fortune is still waiting for us in the distance, or that the fearful 219 is just a gradual climax.

The situation is better than that of people, but this year, it is popular that "my life is up to me". Everyone must keep this spirit. Ma Yun said that 219 is just a difficult beginning.

22 is still calling you to fight.

2 The poor just want to keep their jobs.

The elite export economic data, but the brothers and sisters of the proletariat don't care.

The poor care about the present and are sensitive to the price changes in their rice bowls.

A colleague of mine who just graduated recently wailed every day, and now the money deposited in the bank, balance treasure and money fund has completely lost the inflation.

the CPI jumped to 4.5% in November, the highest since 212. Thanks to pork, the price rose by 11.2% year-on-year, which increased the CPI by about 2.6 percentage points.

The price of pigs is gradually stabilizing, but other meats can't bear it and want to become expensive. The meat in the restaurant is getting less and less, and the boss wants to raise the price for a day or two. The menu price is easy to go up but difficult to go down, and the cost of eating out in 22 will definitely rise.

The cost of living has increased. If the monetary environment is getting looser and looser, the money in the hands of the poor will only be gross.

in the 197s, international oil prices soared, and inflation in the United States was high. However, at that time, the chairman of the Federal Reserve believed that the core CPI excluding oil prices had no inflation, so he went his own way and set up negative interest rates. Later, another former Federal Reserve Chairman, Paul Walker, resolutely opposed the interest rate cut. He raised the federal funds rate to 19% to end the double-digit inflation.

Paul Walker believes that it is absurd for the United States, a country on wheels, to eliminate the core CPI of oil.

History is a mirror of reality. Perhaps by the same token, for a big pork consuming country, the words "eliminating pork is deflation" also make the brothers and sisters of the proletariat face a question mark, "Dare not eat meat with this mouth open?"

The rise in pork prices affects the "eight" in the February 28th effect, the basic dish of society and the vast majority of ordinary people.

There is a good saying in Yi Changyang: "A thousand tricks are useless if you can't control the currency."

Ordinary people are anxious about inflation and worried about interest rate cuts. It's nothing more than that in the era of negative interest rates, who will suffer the most, and the answer is undoubtedly the poor.

even if we don't want to admit it, we have to admit that the era of cruel low interest rates has come.

A recent report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out that the global overall interest rate will fall to the lowest level since 5, years in the next decade.

In the next decade, the global overall interest rate will drop to the lowest level since 5, years.

High-yield products have risks that life can't bear, or they are beyond the reach of all their wealth, such as Bitcoin, the asset with the highest income this year and the annual increase of more than 8%. Anyway, I can't afford it. Excuse me.

and the stock market is a "seven losses, two draws and one gain" market, and the knowledge and funds of retail investors are totally insufficient to compete with institutions.

Now the interest rate continues to fall, and the annualized rate of return of Yu 'ebao on the 7th has dropped from the high point of 6.763% in 214 to 2.354% today, even the pork in the rice bowl can't be saved.

Are the proletarians helpless? Don't mourn.

My colleague recently bought several investment-related books. The situation is changing too fast, so it is more urgent to learn financial management knowledge systematically. The way she chooses to manage money is the fund, which can not only invest with the rich and the threshold is still low, but also make a wider asset allocation. She is a prudent investment, controlling the allocation ratio of stock index funds at 1%-2%, and allocating the remaining absolute income products such as partial stock debt funds and money funds to control risks.

In fact, she has outperformed many graduates in this year's employment tide, and now there are many young people who have "flexible employment". In 219, the Baidu search index of "looking for a job" was five times the average of the past decade.

the rice bowl touches the hearts of the most people.

3 The rich seek security

Only the rich will care about the global political and economic situation.

They tend to take a long-term view and think about wealth planning and inheritance in the next ten or twenty years.

The current inflation is not terrible. What the rich are afraid of is the future asset deflation, the depression of the global economy and the exhaustion of profit opportunities.

The rich will be much more comfortable when interest rates are cut. Whoever has strong leverage is more likely to gain huge profits. At this time, you can also understand why Ren Chief will call for a rate cut. Financial real estate is a win-win industry in the relaxed era.

the day when interest rates are cut is often the day when the gap between the rich and the poor widens.

However, if negative interest rates prevail, it will also be a bad signal for the rich, which proves that the opportunities for obtaining investment income are decreasing as the economy goes down.

if we used high leverage to chase pigs at the tuyere before, now we have to prevent the pigs from exploding on the road and the tight capital chain from breaking. In 219, how many richest people exploded, the richest people went to prison, and the richest people became old ... It's magic.

On the other hand, how many points to earn is not what most rich people care about most. Rich people don't have eggs in their hands, but many hens, as long as they can lay eggs stably and ensure cash flow.

The richest people in this era are most anxious about the risk surge and wealth security.

international politics is moving towards disorder and conflicts are expanding. A member of Zhigu, who works as a family office, told me that the high-net-worth clients he contacted in the past two years are trying to find ways to put their funds in a safer place, and this demand is more urgent than in previous years.

For example, ordinary people see Brexit as a drama of death, and the rich see the opportunity of bargain-hunting and intensively increase their positions in London real estate. London has quickly recovered from the ruins of two world wars. This amazing and historically tested resilience really deserves to be an international metropolis. From 1967 to now, the biggest drop in London's housing prices is only 15%, and the waves splashed by Brexit are just insignificant little splashes in the long history. What's more, it is a foregone conclusion that Boris is taking Britain out of the EU. After being digested, it has brought a more definite sense of security to the rich.

a sense of security is a scarce commodity.

In fact, the most admirable thing for the rich to do is to "return to Jia Yueting tomorrow".

It's been noisy for two years, and the investors who have been harvested have suffocated their dreams, but Faraday still hasn't been mass-produced. As for Jia Yueting himself, he successfully filed for bankruptcy, and his left hand turned to his right hand in five sea view mansions in the United States, and his assets were also isolated by insurance trust and passed on to his daughter. Who else dares to defy him?

Hens can't be put in the same cage, which is the core investment concept of the rich.

4 The middle class is the most anxious

The middle class is a sandwich. It should not only care about the present, but also consider tomorrow. It should not only calculate the daily necessities, but also follow international current events.

The poor have not much to lose, and the rich have too many ways to hedge, leaving only the middle class unable to keep up.

There are four old people in the world to take care of, and the life track with a baby is going to cost money, and the bald one is still carrying a mortgage, and the sickle outside is one after another. The investment projects are also left after the rich have fished for a layer of oil, so the risk is big and the chance is small. The word "midlife crisis" is born for the middle class.

the middle class is an unstable class, and the upward passage has to be broken to enter, but the downward passage has always had a strong suction. All the year round, we must tighten our nerves, guard against death, and fight for the defense of assets.

In the past, real estate was the exclusive asset of China's middle class to fight inflation and achieve class jump.

However, in the past two years, house prices have been deeply adjusted, and the way of making money has changed greatly.

I have a friend who has been planted in "making money with old ideas".

After the regulation of the first-tier property market tightened in p>217, my friend immediately bought a second-hand house with high leverage in Shijingshan District, Beijing. According to his past experience, buying a house during the regulation period is the most correct choice. This was true, but his mistake was to seriously underestimate the determination of this regulation and static observation of the great changes in Beijing's urban planning. I thought that the regulation would be released soon and house prices would rise, but until now, second-hand houses in Beijing are still in winter.

Compared with the price peak in 217, his suite has dropped by more than 3%, and the down payment of one million yuan has all gone.

There are too many uncertainties in the real estate investment market now.

The threshold for settlement in big cities is gradually cancelled, while small and medium-sized cities are dead, while the transaction threshold in the most certain big cities is increasing day by day.

China's economic model is in transition, which means that the urban industry must be deeply adjusted, and the difficulty of location selection and identification is definitely increasing. If you make real estate money according to the old thinking in the past, you may not get a penny.

more importantly, the thinking of the top management has changed. In the game of great powers, China must revitalize the "world factory". Only when the real interest rate is lowered, most of the money-making opportunities in the real estate market are destroyed, and the money is no longer siphoned by real estate in the wrong direction, will the real economy have a chance.

The time when you can close your eyes and earn money while lying on the National Games is speeding away. What can the middle class do?

In recent months, the whole insurance industry has been selling well. In fact, the rate of return is 4.25%. In the eyes of the rich, it is just a small gain to avoid inheritance tax, inherit wealth or hedge the risk of borrowing.

but it was snapped up by the market. Why? In fact, most of the snapping people are middle class. Because the downward trend of interest rates has become a market knowledge, and annuity insurance can bring certain benefits and iron out the economic cycle by locking interest rates. Now the China Banking Regulatory Commission has stopped the annuity insurance products with a yield of 4.25%. As a result, the middle class is even more anxious, because-< P > the future with low yield is naked in front of us.

The stock market and funds, which can be invested by the working class, the middle class and the rich, will increasingly require you to accumulate investment knowledge and have the ability to identify risks in order to avoid being cut off.

We often forget that there is no shortcut to getting rich.

Controlling risks, learning knowledge and exercising are the most down-to-earth ways to survive this long down cycle and find out the low point of assets.

focus on the future and work hard.