How did the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia split respectively?

The reasons for the disintegration of the Soviet Union can include the following aspects: First, the serious economic crisis. Since the late 1950s, the United States and the Soviet Union have been fighting for hegemony. The heavy arms burden and various drawbacks in the economic system (for example, in order to meet the military needs, the Soviet Union has always focused on developing the arms industry and heavy industry, resulting in an imbalance between agriculture, light industry and heavy industry. ) seriously affected the healthy development of the Soviet economy. Since Khrushchev came to power in the 1950s, although several Soviet leaders reformed the old economic system, little was achieved. In the 1980s, the long-term accumulated economic consequences led to a sharp deterioration of the Soviet economy. By February of 199 1 year, the gross national product dropped by 20%, the fiscal deficit reached 300 billion rubles, the loan inflation rate reached 300%, and the economy shrank in an all-round way. Second, social unrest, all kinds of thoughts that deny history and oppose Marxism are rampant. The trend of the Soviet Union's denial of history can be traced back to Khrushchev's reign in the 1950s. 1956, Khrushchev made a secret report on "Personality Worship and Its Consequences" at the 20th Congress of the Soviet Union, which criticized Stalin's mistakes, caused a shock in the society, and then triggered a political "undercurrent" that totally denied Stalin, history and socialism. 1985 after Gorbachev came to power, a second wave of reappraisal of Stalin was set off, which made the "undercurrent" develop into a trend of thinking that denied Marxism and spread further. Gorbachev's new thinking with "pluralism", "openness" and "democratization" as the core and the spread of democratic socialism in the Soviet Union further confused people's thoughts and led to a serious shake of Marxism-Leninism. At the same time, right-wing forces and ethnic separatism have risen, and social contradictions and ethnic contradictions have intensified sharply. Third, the influence of western forces. Western countries have always taken the Soviet Union as their main rival and pursued a peaceful evolution strategy of softening and dismembering. For example, in order to encourage the implementation of the internal evolution policy of "new thinking", the west gave the Soviet Union some benefits to achieve the goal of stabilizing the Soviet Union; On the other hand, the West continues to encourage Soviet nationalists to engage in independence and division, so as to eventually dismember the Soviet Union.

The disintegrated countries are Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Georgia, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

On February 26th, 2006, the Presidium of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia announced that Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia in Bosnia and Herzegovina would unite to form "Little Yugoslavia", which further complicated the situation in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

The European Union held a meeting of foreign ministers. After more than hours of heated debate in 10, it was decided to recognize the independence of Slovenia and Croatia on 1992+ 10/5. This decision is undoubtedly diplomatic recognition and international support for one of the warring parties in South Africa. Therefore, once the decision was announced, the civil war in South Africa further escalated, and even the air force and surface-to-surface missiles were used in the conflict.

Is ethnic contradiction really the cause of Yugoslavia's disintegration?

The real driving force behind the civil war in the former Yugoslavia

The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (also known as "Second Yugoslavia"), which was born after the Second World War, has developed peacefully for 45 years. Why did 199 1 disintegrate and a bitter civil war broke out? Traditionally, Yugoslavs always struggle with each other or strive for independence. After the death of Tito 1980, no leader has his prestige. In addition, with the end of the Cold War, the inherent ethnic contradictions within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia led to the conflict of economic interests, which in turn triggered a political crisis and eventually pushed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia towards division.

There is some truth in this statement, but the fact is that all ethnic groups in Yugoslavia have lived together in one country for nearly a century, established all-round contacts with each other, have close economic relations, and mixed families abound. Therefore, the extreme hatred that appeared in the 1990s was mostly the product of war and opportunistic political practice, rather than the original existence.

So, why does Slovenia want independence? Ironically, it was European integration and free trade that led to the disintegration of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. This makes Western Europe a safer and more economically attractive place for small countries. After World War I, Slovenia avoided being carved up by Italy, Germany and Austria by uniting with other southern Slavs. But by the end of 1980s, the view that Slovenia and Croatia, with relatively rich economies, were separated from other backward partners and close to Western Europe became more and more popular.

Slovakia and Croatia held several rounds of negotiations with Serbia led by Milosevic, but failed to reach an agreement. At that time, except Germany, European powers and the United States clearly opposed the secession of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in order to maintain stability in the Balkans. "But it is puzzling that almost at the same time, a public report of the US Central Intelligence Agency made people seem to see the contradiction of the US policy toward Yugoslavia. Some historians now analyze that it was the CIA report that made the avoidable disintegration irreversible. "

1At the end of 990, the CIA submitted a forecast report on the situation in Yugoslavia to President Bush, who was deadlocked in the Gulf War. The report said: "Yugoslavia will disintegrate in the next 18 months." This prediction caused an uproar in the world, and the Yugoslav authorities immediately issued a statement, strongly protesting and condemning it. Most international public opinion thought it was sheer nonsense. It is by no means out of goodwill or accident that the United States issued this report at a delicate time in Yugoslavia. At first, the international community generally expressed doubts about its prediction, but in less than a year, the development of the situation fulfilled the CIA's statement. It was also said that it was this report that inspired the ethnic separatists in the former Yugoslavia and accelerated their actions to split the Yugoslav Federation.

Serbs have a bad reputation.

During the civil war in the former Yugoslavia, "ethnic cleansing" occurred frequently, and all parties were responsible. But why did the Serbs end up with the notoriety of "doing SS business"? Even the later Serbian Prime Minister Kim Miracle (who was assassinated) himself admitted that "we Serbs really have a bad reputation".

Throughout the civil war in the former Yugoslavia, the warring parties took international assistance, including the support of international public opinion, as their goal. Even spend a lot of money to invite public relations companies in the United States and Canada to create a "good international image" for themselves and vilify their opponents. Molino, editor-in-chief of France TV 2, once interviewed harff, president of Ludwig PR Company, the most influential public affairs organization in the world, and told the whole story of the "manufacturing process" of public opinion. Morinaud described harff's answer in his book "The reality of Yugoslavia is hard to say":

"We succeeded in getting Jews on our side ... because Croatian President tudjman was careless in his book The Wrong Way of Historical Facts, anyone who read this book would accuse him of being anti-Semitic ... Besides, there was indeed cruel persecution of Jews in Croatia and Bosnia in the past. Therefore, our work is excellent. On August 2nd and 5th 1992, it happened that new york's news daily broke the news that Serbs had set up concentration camps with the titles "Death Camp" and "Serb Death Camp". We took this opportunity to win over three huge Jewish organizations to our side. ...

"You know, the Yugoslav problem is extremely complicated, and no one knows what happened there. In fact, most Americans will ask,' Where is Bosnia in Africa?' ? In an instant, we made up a simple story about good people and bad people.

"Our task is not to examine whether the content of the news is true ... people pay us not to promote moral theory, even if we are responsible, we are very calm. If you want to prove that Serbs are victims, you might as well try. Your situation must be very isolated. "

In fact, without the support of hegemonic forces, no matter how powerful a public relations company is, it is impossible to dominate the world. 1On August 28th, 1995, a mortar shell exploded in the center of Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, killing 100 innocent civilians. The peacekeeping force did not reach a conclusion after the investigation that day, but the next day announced that the massacre was committed by Serbs. To this day, it is still a mystery who fired this shell. Ballistics experts believe that Serbian armed forces located in the high mountains of Saskatchewan province can't have such bullet marks. Newspapers in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia even think that this is a "bitter plan" staged by the Mu nationality at the instigation of American intelligence agencies.

Overthrow Milosevic's regime

After the Kosovo war, intelligence agencies such as the CIA and MI6 re-entered Yugoslavia. At this time, their purpose is clear, that is, to overthrow the Milosevic regime.

The United States also provided a large amount of funds to the Serbian opposition through the National Foundation for Democracy, which reached $65.438 billion in 1999 and increased to $365.438 billion in 2000. Many Americans who participated in the anti-rice movement revealed that the State Council and aid played a leading role in this activity. The distribution of funds was handed over by GFAA to the National Democratic Promotion Consortium through commercial contracts, and then non-profit organizations such as the National Democratic Institute and the International Institute for Democracy and Political Power were responsible for the specific operation.

Doug Shawn, a polling expert of Payne, Shawn and Burland Polling Company, a large American professional election company, also made an in-depth analysis of the poll results of Serbian voters, in order to help the Serbian opposition Coalition find a way to overthrow Milosevic, the "immortal bird" in European politics. After analysis and research, Sean gave advice to the Serbian opposition party, which has been in a state of disintegration: Michaelis, a "survivor" who has experienced four war failures, two large-scale demonstrations, 78 days of NATO bombing and international sanctions in the past 10 year, will be "absolutely vulnerable" if he faces another well-organized campaign challenge. Later, the State Council and the CIA made up their minds to adopt Sean's suggestion and unite the divided Yugoslav opposition party.

Since then, western intelligence agencies have begun to invest a lot of money in Yugoslavia to support the rebels. Similarly, a large number of broadcasting equipment, computers and even small printing equipment have been flowing into Serbia. By the beginning of the general election, the United States had also paid 5,000 cans of paint for Serbian student movement organizations, allowing them to scribble anti-rice slogans and slogans at will all over Serbia. From July 2000 to June 10, the United States sponsored 2.5 million stickers with the words "Gotovje" (Serbian means "he is finished", and this slogan later became the slogan of the whole "rice throwing campaign"), weighing 80 tons. During this period, these stickers were posted all over Serbia, and even covered Mie's campaign advertisements with them. Similarly, the "OTPOR" (resistance) movement organization logo printed with American funds-clenching fists can also be seen everywhere.

By the end of the election in 2000, the United States, Britain and Germany had provided more than 60 million dollars for the activities of the Yugoslav opposition.

Shortly after the Kosovo war, an official of the Serbian government said that the Americans had contacted the Yugoslav army and threatened them: "(We) will increase the number of war criminals to 600, so you can either tell me when to betray your boss or go to The Hague (for trial)." An American intelligence official confirmed that American intelligence personnel have been looking for defectors who can bring down Milosevic.

At the same time as the political war, the western countries led by the United States also strengthened their economic sanctions against Yugoslavia. In the Stability Pact for South-Eastern Europe adopted in July 1999, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia also received no assistance of one dollar. In addition, South African enterprises are blacklisted and whitelisted according to whether they support Michaelis regime or not, and blacklisted South African enterprises will not be able to do business with enterprises in EU countries.

In July 2000, Milosevic made a decision to advance the presidential election of Yugoslavia on September 24 of that year because of his misjudgment of these matters. On September 28th, the Election Commission of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia announced the results of the presidential election: opposition candidate Kostunica won 48.96% of the votes and Milosevic won 38.62%. Therefore, a second round of elections will be held in two weeks. But the opposition believes that this is the result of Michaelis' "political fraud". In fact, Kostunica won the election in the first round with more than 52% of the votes. Therefore, the opposition party called for a national resistance movement. 6543810.5, a large-scale action against the party organization hit the parliament, ending with the defection of the "red beret" of the South Special Forces and the "non-interference" of the South Military in the democratization process. Milosevic lost the presidency.

The New York Times and Washington post later reported that the US Congress allocated $77 million to directly intervene in Yugoslavia's domestic politics. The day after Yugoslavia's general election, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the bill again, approving the allocation of 654.38+0.5 billion dollars to help the Yugoslav anti-Milosevic faction.

On April 1 2006, Milosevic was arrested and sent to The Hague War Crimes Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia for trial. Before Michaelis was sent to The Hague, U.S. Ambassador to Yugoslavia Montgomery officially informed Yugoslav President Kostunica that if the Yugoslav government did not cooperate with The Hague Tribunal, the United States would cancel its plan to provide South Africa with 1 billion dollars in aid this fiscal year.

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