Is it a leak or a takeover to buy a house now?

Speaking of buying a house, it's really a big deal. While criticizing high housing prices, we have to bow to life. There is no way, we still have to buy a house, get married and have children. In short, we still have to pay for the house price in the end. Since everyone is going to buy a house, it is better to accept the fact and find a good time to make yourself feel better.

Compared with the past, this year's property market is somewhat special, because the emergence of this epidemic has disrupted the original step-by-step market rhythm. According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, in the first quarter, the sales area of new commercial housing in 60 key cities was about 38.92 million sets, which was the lowest level in the same period since 20 1 1 year, with a year-on-year decrease of over 50% and a month-on-month decrease of over 60%.

In February, many cities were affected by the epidemic and almost no transactions were made. In this context, the sales area of key cities fell by more than 70% year-on-year, reaching a record high. The approved market supply area of new commercial housing in 36 key cities monitored was about 22.58 million sets, down 43.46% year-on-year and 76.73% quarter-on-quarter.

In the case of changes in the relationship between supply and demand, whether to buy a house or sell a house will be reconsidered according to the current situation. In addition, there have been various voices in the market recently, saying that the property market is on fire, that houses are hard to buy and hard to sell, and that Japanese CDs are reappearing. Therefore, in various cases, buyers are more and more confused. I don't know whether to buy a house now is "catch up" or "pick up".

In this regard, Bian Xiao feels that buyers can be measured from two aspects:

1, official intensive attitude to see the future direction of the property market

Recently, the central bank disclosed the results of a survey on the assets and liabilities of urban households in China. The survey was conducted among more than 30,000 urban families in 30 provinces.

From the survey results, the average total assets of urban households are 3 1.79 million yuan, and the distribution of assets is obviously differentiated; Family assets are mainly physical assets, with housing accounting for nearly 70% and housing ownership rate reaching 96.0%; The proportion of financial assets is relatively low, only 20.4%.

The participation rate of urban households in debt is high, which is 56.5%. The structure of household debt is relatively simple, and the main source of debt is bank loans. Mortgage is the main component of household debt, accounting for 75.9% of the total household debt.

This result is not surprising to us. With the development of the property market for more than ten years, people have discovered the commodity attributes of houses, and more and more people have "saved" their money into houses. The recognition that buying a house can make money has become common sense, so you see, the total assets of each household are 3179,000 yuan, which may only be the house price in first-tier cities.

We can't deny that the development of the property market has promoted the economic development of China, but it has also brought some disadvantages. Once these disadvantages are infinitely magnified, they will bring even bigger problems. Because a stage has a stage attribute, the property market at this stage will bear the development needs of this stage.

Although the property market has been greatly affected this year, from the official intensive statement, the market has not relaxed. Yesterday, the Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China held a symposium on Shanghai real estate credit. The meeting demanded that in the next stage, all commercial banks should continue to implement the credit policy of the People's Bank of China to the letter.

One of the tasks is to adhere to the positioning of "housing and not speculating". It is strictly forbidden to use real estate as risk collateral, break through the requirements of credit policy in disguise through personal consumption loans and operating loans, and provide funds to property buyers in violation of regulations, which will affect the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

Therefore, in general, the property market will not change much, and house prices will not fluctuate too much. For those who have not bought a house, they can still expect it.

2. First-and second-tier cities are different from third-and fourth-tier cities, and third-and fourth-tier cities are different from fifth-and sixth-tier cities.

The first point above has already finished the overall property market situation, and it is necessary to distinguish different cities here.

Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that the birth population in China is 6.5438+0.465 million, and the birth rate is 6.5438+0.48 ‰, a record low, with a decrease of 4 million and 6 million. The reason why this data is mentioned is that population is one of the driving forces supporting the development of the property market. Demand can support supply. We should recognize this logical order.

Birth population is on the one hand, and the population aggregation effect of big cities is on the other. We should also understand why there are more and more welfare policies for talents in cities in the past two years. Because the direction of population movement also represents the development trend of the market, different levels of cities also represent different meanings, and buying a house in different cities will also lead to "missing" or "taking over".