Comment on Hot Issues in China Insurance Market

Four months after the US House of Representatives passed the bill on permanent normal trade relations with China, the US Senate rejected 13 additional amendment motions, and finally passed the bill with an overwhelming majority of 83: 15.

PNTR is the basis of bilateral agreements between China and the United States. In the trade agreement 1 1 reached between China and the United States last June, China agreed to open a wide range of markets from agriculture to communications. In exchange, the U.S. Congress must grant China permanent normal trade relations, or PNTR, instead of the current annual trade relations approved by Congress. This bill, which can bring a "win-win" situation, came late because of the obstruction of a few members of Congress. However, evil did not overwhelm justice. Last week, the US Senate overcame many obstacles and vetoed the 13 PNTR amendment one after another. If any amendment is passed, the bill will be sent back to the House of Representatives for a new vote, thus greatly reducing the chances of the bill being passed by Congress.

Wise choice

Dr. Kissinger, a former US Secretary of State for four times, once said in his book Diplomacy and Strategy that the difference between China and the United States is not ideology, but interests! Interests!

PNTR will bring huge long-term economic benefits to the United States. China promised to open its market to the United States in the bilateral trade agreement between China and the United States, which will create huge business opportunities for American investment and products. For China, the United States is China's largest trade market and investment source. With PNTR, it means that China and the United States have reliable institutional conditions for further developing bilateral economic and trade relations. Only when the US Congress passes this bill can the bilateral agreement reached between China and the United States on China's accession to the WTO become a "win-win" agreement. Otherwise, in Sino-US economic and trade relations, the United States will be in an awkward position and lose many opportunities created by trade negotiations.

If the US House of Representatives passes the bill on permanent normal trade relations with China, it will be of great benefit to the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations after China's accession to the WTO. After 1994, in China's foreign trade, the trade volume between China and Japan ranked first, and the trade volume between China and the United States was only slightly different. Once the United States passes the bill of permanent normal trade relations with China, there is no doubt that the trade volume between China and the United States will further increase in China's foreign trade.

If the US Congress does not pass the PNTR bill against China this time, the "win-win" significance of the bilateral trade agreement between China and the United States will be hard to exist. There is a prerequisite in the bilateral agreement between China and the United States, that is, the U.S. government has the obligation to persuade Congress to pass the PNTR bill against China. The failure of Congress to pass the PNTR bill means that the United States unilaterally refuses to grant China market access conditions, that is, it does not grant China normal trade relations conditions. Accordingly, according to the balance and symmetry of the rights and obligations of WTO members, China can also fail to fulfill its commitment to the United States.

If so, the United States will be in an awkward position, because WTO rules stipulate that the market opening commitments reached by one member state and another member state can also be shared by other WTO members. In other words, the promise of China's market opening reached in the bilateral agreement between China and the United States can be shared by other WTO members. The refusal of the United States to grant China PNTR means that the United States cannot enjoy the fruits of its own efforts to negotiate with China in 13. On the contrary, countries that compete with the United States, such as Japan, the European Union and other WTO members, can enjoy the conditions reached by bilateral agreements between China and the United States. In doing so, the United States will certainly be at a disadvantage. The United States still can't make full use of the China market, the trade relations between the two countries are not normalized, and the export trade between the two sides will be greatly restricted, especially the opening of China's service trade market, and the United States will not get the maximum benefit, and it has a strong advantage in service trade.

Of course, as far as China is concerned, China will also be affected if the bilateral market opening conditions reached with the United States, the most powerful country in the world, are not realized. However, if the West doesn't shine in the East, China will face a diversified market. If the US bill on permanent normal trade relations with China is not passed, the economic and trade relations between China, Japan and Europe will further develop, and the American business community will really suffer, because they will lose a historic opportunity to enter China's vast market.

Even if the US Congress fails to pass the bill of permanent normal trade relations with China this time, China can still join the WTO. PNTR is not a "free" gift from the United States to China, but a normal reciprocal trade treatment between the two countries, which conforms to the basic principles of the WTO. If the US Congress does not pass the bill on permanent normal trade relations with China this year, or postpones it later, but China's accession to the WTO is a foregone conclusion, the United States will not be able to enjoy the benefits of opening its market after China's accession to the WTO at least until the bill is passed.

Although the political struggle around the PNTR bill in the United States is very fierce at present, based on the national interests of the United States, the US Congress passed the PNTR bill against China after many twists and turns.

Who is blocking PNTR?

When the US House of Representatives passed the bill of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (RNTR) with China in May this year, many observers in China and the United States optimistically estimated that the Senate would vote for it in June. However, in fact, PNTR has met with resistance from all sides. It has become a tool for the struggle between the two parties in the United States, an excuse for anti-China forces, and a weapon for running for president.

China policy-the "football" of American internal politics

The United States is a two-party country. The opposition always tries to create difficulties for the ruling party. In American history, it is not uncommon for China policy to become the focus of domestic struggle in the United States.

1999 1 1 month, the United States' accession to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty was rejected by the Senate, and the two-party politics in the United States caused the Clinton administration to fail in its foreign policy and humiliated the Democratic Party. Before the House of Representatives voted on PNTR, the Clinton administration vowed to win the struggle. Clinton's cabinet mobilized and set up a war room as an office in the White House. Clinton personally talked with 100 members of Congress. He repeatedly warned that if China PNTR is not given, the United States will not enjoy the benefits stipulated in the agreement reached through hard negotiations, and "the United States will regret it for 20 years". The Clinton administration also invited former presidents and former government officials to help in the war. Obviously, the Clinton administration regards permanent normal trade relations with China as an important legislative and diplomatic measure in the last year of its term. Since this issue is so important, * * * and the Party-controlled Congress will not miss this opportunity to create difficulties for the Democratic Party.

Cold war legacy

In order to serve the party struggle, the usual practice of some members of Congress in the United States is to entangle some irrelevant things. Since 1989, the annual debate on China's most-favored-nation treatment (normal trade treatment) is such a scuffle. All kinds of anti-China forces rallied to attack China and the administration's China policy for fear of losing the leverage of pressure and the effective tool of partisan struggle.

Therefore, before the House of Representatives voted, the White House made a compromise, put forward a trade supervision plan, prepared to set up a "rapid response" team to examine China's behavior, and created a new assistant minister position in charge of China affairs in the Ministry of Commerce to investigate China's fulfillment of its trade commitments in detail. In the bill passed by the House of Representatives, it is also stipulated that a joint group of the National Assembly and the executive organs should be set up to monitor the human rights situation in China and report to the National Assembly every year.

Another thing that has nothing to do with China's PNTR is the Appropriation Bill. The US Congress is the legislature, but its main function is to take charge of the government's purse. In recent years, Congress has often been at odds with the government financially, even affecting the normal work of the government and even helping government agencies close down. The fiscal year in the United States begins on 10/month 1 day every year. July and September are also the peak seasons for debating the appropriation bill. The entanglement between the PNTR issue and the appropriation bill is also to force the Democratic government to compromise on the budget.

The Special Significance of Election Year

Every election, the partisan struggle in the United States is bound to become more intense. This year is an election year, and PNTR to China has become a problem that can serve the party struggle. But * * * and members of the Party cannot object, because it was put forward by the Democratic government, and in fact, when voting in the House of Representatives, members of * * * and the Party voted more in favor than members of the Democratic Party. The reason is that the American business community is the main force supporting PNTR, and they are the main foundation of * * * and the party. Therefore, * * * and Republicans cannot veto this bill. But they don't want to pass this bill smoothly and let the Democratic government score. The only way is to delay.

Delaying voting has another advantage for * * * and the Republican Party: it can deal a blow to Democratic candidate Al Gore. An important foundation of the Democratic Party is the Federation of Industry and Commerce, the Federation of Trade Unions and other labor organizations. They oppose free trade and interfere in any trade agreement. Now they are opposed to granting China permanent normal trade relations. Because they have quite strong grass-roots organizations, their opposition should not be underestimated. This puts Gore in a delicate awkward position: as vice president, he can't help supporting PNTR to go to China; And if he supports it, it may weaken the Democratic Party's support for his election. The Democratic National Congress was held in Los Angeles on August 14. The PNTR to China will have a certain impact on this meeting, and may even cause infighting among the Democratic Party. This is, of course, * * * and the party's welcome.

Will China's entry into WTO be postponed until next year?

At present, among the 37 WTO members that have conducted bilateral negotiations with China, only Switzerland and Mexico have not yet concluded the negotiations.

China's entry into the World Organization's ultramarathon is drawing to a close. However, perhaps just as the saying goes, China's accession to the WTO is far from as easy as some people think. Experts believe that even under the best circumstances, China's accession to the WTO this year still faces the problems of very tight time and huge remaining workload. People can't help but ask, will the last online time be postponed until next year?

On June 5438+065438+ 10/5 last year, when China and the United States signed a bilateral agreement on China's accession to the WTO, Shi Guangsheng, Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, already said: "China is looking forward to joining the WTO within this year". However, many things happened, and China's wish to join the WTO last year did not come true.

In May this year, China and the European Union signed a bilateral agreement on China's accession to the WTO. Shi Guangsheng said: "The conclusion of the China-EU bilateral agreement marks the conclusion of the bilateral negotiations on China's accession to the WTO, and China's accession to the WTO will enter the final stage of accession procedures."

At that time, among the 37 WTO members that requested bilateral negotiations with China, China had signed agreements with 32. The signing of the China-EU agreement makes people feel that the main obstacles on the road to China's accession to the WTO have been completely removed, and China's accession to the WTO is just around the corner.

In June this year, Minister Shi Guangsheng said at the 2000 meeting of the "2 1 Century Forum" that the bilateral negotiations on China's accession to the WTO are stepping up and all bilateral negotiations will be concluded in the near future.

In the same month, the 10 meeting of the WTO working group in China was held in Geneva. Long Yongtu, chief negotiator of China's Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, said that the multilateral negotiation process of China's accession to the WTO has shown a good momentum, and the basic framework of the main legal documents, protocols and working group reports of China's accession to the WTO has been formed. Gillard, Chairman of the WTO Working Group in China, said at the end of the meeting that the long process of China's accession to the WTO has entered the final stage.

In July, WTO Director-General Moore expressed the hope that China would join the WTO before the end of this year.

From all aspects, the moment of collision is coming, and China is only one step away from joining the WTO. China people seem to be used to the news media's mantra of China's entry into WTO-"entering the final stage". However, looking back today, we will find that this mantra has been used for several months.

After 14 years of marathon running, the last threshold of China's entry into WTO is actually not low.

According to the WTO accession procedure, the applicant should hold bilateral market access negotiations with WTO members who request bilateral negotiations, and at the same time, the relevant working group composed of members who request bilateral negotiations and members who are willing to participate in multilateral negotiations will also hold multilateral negotiations on the protocol and working group report of the applicant's accession to the WTO. After completing all bilateral and multilateral negotiations, the Working Group summarized all agreements into a schedule of concessions on trade in goods and services attached to the Protocol, and submitted the Protocol and the report of the Working Group to the WTO General Council. Then, the General Council convened a general meeting to decide whether to adopt the protocol and the report of the working group.

The General Council generally adopts relevant decisions according to the principle of "consensus". If no agreement can be reached, a vote shall be taken, and more than two thirds of the members agree that the vote is valid. After the approval of the General Council, the legislature of the applicant country will approve it, and then the government representative will deposit the ratification with the Director-General of WTO. Thirty days later, the country officially became a member of the WTO.

Looking at these procedures and calculating the time, it is not difficult to see that the last leg of China's accession to the WTO is not a one-day or two-day journey.

According to experts familiar with the matter, China and Mexico have similar productivity levels and product structures. Mexican industrial enterprises, especially textile, toy and footwear companies, are worried that China's accession to the WTO will threaten the domestic and export of their products. However, in the negotiations between China and Switzerland, there is still controversy about the openness of China's insurance market.

According to another source, some countries that signed bilateral agreements with China before the United States and the European Union now propose to revise their earlier decisions. In this regard, Long Yongtu made it clear that "we don't even want to change a period or a comma" for the bilateral agreements that have been reached.

Another issue is the drafting of a package of documents. In the view of Ms. Liang Yanfen, director of the World Economic and Trade Research Department of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of China, it is also a great workload to reflect all the agreements reached in bilateral negotiations in the most concise and accurate words, and it is also necessary to make a specific concession list for all the commitments in bilateral agreements and submit it to the General Council in the form of a commitment list, which is not "desirable".

Assuming that China can complete the package of documents on China's accession to the WTO in time before the meeting of the China Working Group 12 in September, these documents will be submitted to the WTO General Council or ministerial meeting for consideration. Only then did China really enter the final stage of WTO accession. Complicated circumstances may delay China's accession to the WTO until next year.

Further reading: How to buy insurance, which is good, and teach you how to avoid these "pits" of insurance.