Discuss and judge the current situation

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing 65438+February 17 (Xiong Yuan) recently held the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference, which once again clarified the policy orientation of 20021,adhered to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability, constructed a new development pattern, better coordinated development and security, implemented the task of "six stabilities", adhered to the strategy of expanding domestic demand, and strengthened the strategic support of science and technology. In terms of specific ideas, stable employment and steady growth are still hard requirements, and there are also new requirements such as "paying attention to demand-side reform, strengthening anti-monopoly and preventing disorderly expansion of capital, and doing a good job in resolving various stock risks and preventing incremental risks".

The meeting is both confident and worried about the economy next year. The meeting held that "China's economic operation has gradually returned to normal, but there are still many uncertainties about the COVID-19 epidemic and the external environment", and reiterated that "efforts should be made to keep the economy within a reasonable range", indicating that steady growth is still a hard requirement, indicating that NPC and CPPCC may still set specific economic growth targets next year.

Demand-side reform is a new idea of next year's policy, and the core is to expand domestic demand. Compared with the past, the meeting put forward "focusing on demand-side reform" for the first time on the basis of continuing to emphasize deepening supply-side structural reform, which is a more important change of thinking. Combined with the previous "we should attach great importance to demand-side management, adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, and always organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening the structural reform of the supply side" and the "Tenth Five-Year Plan", it is not difficult to judge that the focus of demand-side reform is to do everything possible to expand domestic demand, and the main starting points may include: First, dredging the domestic cycle, including "improving the adaptability of the supply system to domestic demand; Form a higher level dynamic balance of demand pulling supply and supply creating demand "; The second is to further promote consumption, including "promoting the transformation of consumer goods such as automobiles from purchase management to use management; Promote the healthy development of housing consumption; Open up urban and rural consumer markets; Improve the vacation system and so on. ; Third, promote institutional reform, including "taking expanding the size of middle-income groups as an important policy goal and optimizing the income distribution structure;" "Break the institutional and institutional barriers that hinder the market-oriented allocation of production factors and the circulation of goods and services, and relax market access in the field of service consumption.

Strengthening anti-monopoly and preventing disorderly expansion of capital are the new requirements of next year's policy. Combined with the spirit of the special meeting of the State Council Financial Stability and Development Committee on June 5438+1October 3/KLOC-0, the proposal draft of the 14th Five-Year Plan put forward a series of requirements, such as "strengthening anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition law enforcement and justice". The anti-monopoly guide (draft for comments) recently issued by the State Administration of Market Supervision predicts that the state will try its best to prevent and stop monopolistic behavior in order to protect fair competition and maintain the market.

Risk prevention has once again become the focus of next year's policy. As one of the three tough battles, preventing financial risks has always been the focus of policy in recent years. In view of the fact that China's economy is expected to stabilize and improve next year, the meeting also foresaw that "it is necessary to do a good job in resolving all kinds of stock risks and preventing incremental risks". Among them, stock risk should refer to high leverage ratio, debt risk and economic transformation pain. And incremental risk should refer to the risk of handling, the risk of policy withdrawal and the risk that the external environment may deteriorate.