Research study of Wenchuan earthquake

Wenchuan in May was full of injuries. But the wheat is already being harvested, and the new green in June is just around the corner.

On May 19, the first day of national mourning, the teachers and students of Beichuan Middle School in the earthquake-stricken area sang the national anthem and reopened school.

On June 1 day, International Children's Day, the children in the disaster area said that the most wanted gift was "happiness".

This is a tribute to tenacious life and a symbol of unyielding China.

Engels said, "There is no historical catastrophe that is not compensated by historical progress". Maybe we can't avoid disasters, but we can choose how to face them. It is the courage of the living that has built countless disasters into a long river of civilization evolution.

From the Yellow River civilization, which flourished because of river management, to modern China, which was reborn from the blood; From the Tangshan earthquake 32 years ago to the flood fighting and emergency rescue of 1998; From the fight against SARS in 2003 to the fight against ice and snow at the beginning of this year, it was a severe test of disasters and worries, which strengthened the great spirit of the Chinese nation and pushed China society forward in setbacks and adversity.

"One party is in trouble and all parties support it; Self-reliance and hard work. " In the depths of Daba Mountain, General Secretary Hu Jintao wrote 16 Chinese characters for children on the blackboard in a simple earthquake-proof shed.

Drawing confidence from disasters and drawing strength from disasters is a tragic past and a great beginning for the suffering Chinese nation.

Since May of 15, China Geological Survey has convened authoritative experts in China to conduct "consultation" on the Sichuan earthquake, and initially formed three conclusions.

First, the Indian plate subducted into the Asian plate, which caused the rapid uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and triggered an earthquake. The plateau material slowly flows eastward and squeezes eastward along the Longmenshan structural belt on the eastern edge of the plateau, encountering the tenacious resistance of the rigid block under the Sichuan basin, resulting in the long-term accumulation of tectonic stress energy, and finally suddenly released in Beichuan-Yingxiu area of Longmenshan.

Second, thrust, dextral and compressional fault earthquakes. First, the seismogenic structure is the central fault zone of Longmenshan structural belt, which is thrust from southwest to northeast under the action of compressive stress. Second, the earthquake was a one-way rupture earthquake, which moved from southwest to northeast, causing the aftershocks to spread to the northeast. Thirdly, after the main earthquake, the stress propagation and release process of the compressional thrust fault earthquake is slow, which may lead to strong aftershocks and long duration.

The third is shallow earthquakes. The Sichuan earthquake occurred in the brittle-ductile transition zone of the crust, with a focal depth of 10 km-20 km and a long duration, so it was extremely destructive.

According to the preliminary estimate of Southwest Securities, the indirect economic losses in relevant areas may be between 30 billion and 60 billion yuan. The total loss caused by this disaster may be between 654.38+005 billion yuan and 654.38+09 billion yuan, which may reduce the economic growth in the second and fourth quarters by 0. 15-0.2 percentage points. This has not taken into account the indirect effects (such as supply, sales, investment and financial expenditure) that other regions may suffer. ).

Earthquake prediction is to predict the time, place and intensity of future earthquakes according to the understanding of the law of earthquake activity. The purpose of earthquake prediction is to avoid or mitigate earthquake disasters. Therefore, it should be highly reliable, and inaccurate predictions will cause unnecessary panic among residents and bring losses to society and economy. The basis of earthquake prediction is to understand the physical process of earthquake preparation and the changes of physical properties and mechanical state of crustal rocks during this process. However, it is very difficult to predict reliably because human beings do not know enough about the causes and laws of earthquakes. The technology that earthquake prediction research relies on cannot directly observe the interior of the earth, so there is a lack of direct observation data on the process of earthquake preparation and various factors affecting this process. Therefore, although the problem of earthquake prediction has been raised for a long time, the progress is slow. Scientists all over the world have made great efforts to this end, but so far they still can't accurately predict earthquakes, and at best they can only make very rough estimates.

A, the location of the new town construction:

There are two ways to choose a site: one is the Tangshan model, which is built on the original basis, and the other is to re-select a new address. This depends on the actual situation and comprehensive factual analysis.

The premise is to respect science. Through this earthquake, we all know that Wenchuan and other surrounding towns are located on the fault zone. It is suggested that the government and the state relocate the severely affected counties and towns. The reconstruction of new houses needs to be cautious, and the location must be far away from the earthquake zone and hillside. The country can learn from the way of Three Gorges immigrants, build the same community, choose new sites to build new towns, improve living standards and consider sustainable development. Only in this way can it be true in the long run.

If it is built on the original basis and it is difficult to move out for a while, it should be strengthened first, and then the scale should be strictly controlled, and reasonable arrangements should be made to minimize losses.

Second, determine the development orientation of each new city.

No matter what the post-earthquake reconstruction of the new towns established by the government is like, we must define the development orientation of each town in the re-planning. It is the primary task of urban construction and the foundation of all construction. People all over the country are concerned about your development.

Make clear the characteristics of each town, combine the post-earthquake resources, and plan according to the scale and functional characteristics. People can also make suggestions for each town, make clear the development direction, and smoothly carry out the next work after having a clear positioning. By reshaping the image of the new town, we can attract more people and give them confidence. People will participate in the construction of new homes in terms of manpower, technology and financial resources.

Take Wenchuan County as an example, establish a self-improvement county with the theme of self-improvement and set an example of self-improvement after the disaster.

…….

Three, combined with the current situation of China new town construction, Wenchuan new town construction should take fewer detours.

After decades of modern urban construction, China has encountered many obstacles in the process of implementation. Some towns have encountered bottlenecks, and some towns have stopped developing, mainly in the following aspects:

1, the layout is scattered, and the overall urban planning is relatively backward. In the urban-rural fringe

2. Infrastructure such as road traffic and public services is relatively insufficient and backward.

3. The humanistic problems in urban construction are serious.

For the new towns around Wenchuan after the "broken window", as long as the funds are guaranteed in place, as long as the planning is done well and problems are avoided, from the perspective of long-term sustainable development, Qi Xin will work together to build a good home. With more people's attention and the care of the CPC Central Committee, the construction of new towns around Wenchuan will definitely leave a wonderful stroke that will live up to expectations in the long history.

Fourth, improve the function and do a good job in the infrastructure of the new city.

Take a road as an example. From this earthquake, we learned that an important reason for the delay in rescue is that the traffic lines in several severely affected counties are single, roads and railways are impassable, and rescuers and materials cannot reach the scene of the accident quickly. It is suggested that when planning and building new towns, roads and railways should be built into a network structure, which can be lower than the main roads. Even if some of them are damaged, other parts can be bypassed.

After the earthquake, the government and the market operated together, mainly led by the government, such as supporting public facilities, such as transportation network, water supply and drainage, power supply, communication security, culture, education, health, social security and environmental protection measures. This is the responsibility of the government. To improve the level of urban and rural economy and infrastructure construction, urban infrastructure is to improve the functions of urban residence, public service and community service.

The Wenchuan earthquake was shocking, and its destructive power exceeded that of the Tangshan earthquake in the 1970s. This is really a rare human disaster. However, the practice of earthquake relief since May 12 has solemnly shown to the world that earthquakes can destroy roads and homes, but they cannot destroy the great spirit of the Chinese nation! This extremely valuable spirit includes patriotism, courage, self-improvement, selfless dedication, unity and cooperation.

No revelation can save the pain of losing loved ones. We can only understand more that love is the power to overcome all difficulties. Those affected people are our relatives, and we should make up for their pain with our love, which is much more practical than saying some empty revelations.