Behind the lifting of the ban on Foshan's purchase restriction: 98,000 new houses are now in stock because of the warning that house prices are rising too fast.

Landscape of Qiandeng Lake in Nanhai, Foshan. Vision china data map

After a lapse of seven years, Foshan once again completely withdrew from the property market.

On February 9, 65438, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Foshan City, Guangdong Province issued the Notice on Further Optimizing the Real Estate Regulation Policy. The New Deal makes it clear that from February 10, 2022, newly-built commercial housing purchased in Zumiao Street, Guicheng Street, Nanhai District, Foshan City and Daliang Street, Shunde District will not be listed for trading until three years from the date of online signing of commercial housing sales contracts. The housing purchase restriction policy was suspended in the above areas.

This also means that under the premise of canceling the purchase restriction policy of the eight major towns and streets in June this year, Foshan once again canceled the purchase restriction policy of the central towns and streets in the three main urban areas of Zumiao, Guicheng and Daliang, and Foshan has cancelled the purchase restriction in the whole district.

Behind the lifting of the ban on purchase restriction in Foshan, the inventory of new houses in Foshan has always been higher than the inventory warning line recognized by the industry; At the same time, the property market lacks motivation.

Because the house price rose too fast, it was warned by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.

The last time Foshan fully liberalized the purchase restriction was in 20 15 years. This made the transaction volume of commercial housing in Foshan reach 1, 436,5438+0,000 square meters, a substantial increase of 43% year-on-year, higher than that in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and became the sales champion in Guangdong.

On 20 16, Guangzhou buyers overflowed Foshan, and the Foshan property market ushered in a new year's sales. The transaction area of commercial housing sales reached19.28 million square meters, a record high. In order to cope with the overheating of the market and the rapid rise of housing prices, Foshan implemented a differentiated housing purchase restriction policy in June+10 of that year.

20 16, 16 On June 7, the office of Foshan Municipal People's Government issued the Notice on Several Measures to Further Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of Foshan Real Estate Market, and implemented new commercial housing in all areas of Chancheng District, Guicheng Street in Nanhai District, dali town, Feishui, Daliang Street, Chencun Town, Beijiao Town and Lecong Town in Shunde District.

On May 3 1, 2065438, the office of Foshan Municipal People's Government issued the Notice on Further Strengthening the Regulation of the Real Estate Market, announcing that second-hand houses will be included in the scope of purchase restriction from 0: 00 on June 1, 20 17, further strengthening the housing purchase restriction policy and further strengthening the regulation of the real estate market.

Due to the restricted purchase policy, the transaction volume of commercial housing in Foshan decreased in 20 17, and the transaction area of commercial housing in Foshan fell to11860,000 square meters in 20 17.

However, with the continuous spillover of buyers to the restricted purchase area, the transaction volume of Foshan property market has picked up at 2014,740,800 square meters, which is the second "big year" of sales since 2003, second only to 20 16. Around May 1 this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development intensively talked about 12 cities, including Foshan.

The trend of market recovery continues. On May 2019 18, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued an early warning to four cities across the country, and Foshan was once again among them. Subsequently, under the leading idea of "housing without speculation", the supply and demand of commercial housing in Foshan gradually stabilized.

At the beginning of 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the overall transaction volume of Foshan property market also declined. By the second half of 20021year, under the background of industry cooling, some housing enterprises were exposed to credit risks, superimposed with factors such as rising mortgage interest rates and tightening quotas, and buyers were in a strong wait-and-see mood.

On June 2, 2022, Foshan issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Real Estate Control Policy with Urban Policy", which clearly adjusted the restricted purchase area of commercial housing in Foshan to Zumiao Street in Chancheng District, Guicheng Street in Nanhai District and Daliang Street in Shunde District. Dali town, Feishui, Chencun Town, Beijiao Town, Lecong Town, nanzhuang town, Shiwan District and Zhangcha Street in Chancheng District are no longer restricted.

This time, with the cancellation of the purchase restriction policy of Zumiao, Guicheng and Daliang Street, the purchase restriction policy implemented in Foshan for nearly 7 years was completely lifted again.

The inventory of new houses is 98,000 sets, and the decontamination cycle is higher than the warning line.

Behind the release of the purchase restriction in Foshan this time, the inventory of Foshan property market is high and the transaction motivation is insufficient.

Insiders in Foshan pointed out that Foshan is a market dominated by first-hand new houses. However, due to the downturn in Foshan's property market this year, the city's inventory pressure has increased sharply.

Ke Rui data show that by the end of June this year, 98,000 sets of first-hand houses had been sold in Foshan. Although the inventory of new houses in Foshan has shown a downward trend since this year, its decontamination cycle is getting higher and higher due to the weakening of decontamination ability. It takes 17. 1 month to digest the current inventory, which is higher than the recognized inventory warning line (12 months).

"The new house is the main force in the Foshan market, and the transaction ratio is around 70%." However, due to the risk of unfinished new houses, the transaction ratio of stock houses has increased this year. According to the data of Foshan Zhongyuan Strategy Center, the transaction volume of Foshan stock houses accounted for 42% of the residential market this year, while the proportion in the past three years was between 27% and 35%.

Xie Ranfeng, head of Foshan Zhongyuan Strategy Research Center, pointed out that compared with new houses, the stock houses are more certain and can guarantee the delivery of houses, that is, buy and use them; At the same time, the price of stock houses is more competitive. Customers can buy the house in the center plate at a lower price, and they can enjoy the mature facilities around them without waiting, especially the education and business circle facilities.

The local agent in Foshan pointed out that after the comprehensive lifting of the purchase restriction, more customer consultation and house inspection began, but it will take some time for the New Deal to land. At present, there are no customers who make a decision immediately. "The liberalization of purchase restrictions has released some purchasing power, but after the policy is clear, it will take time for the overall market to recover."

With the liberalization of the policy, some second-hand housing owners began to take the lead in raising prices.

According to the data of Zhuge Housing Research Center, the purchase restriction was completely cancelled in Foshan in 65438+February 10, and then the price increase of Foshan owners was obvious. February 65438+February 1 1, the house price increased by 209 sets, which was 10/24.7% higher than that in June.

Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, believes that the moderate liberalization of policies is bound to enhance market confidence in the short term, and the increase in price-increasing housing is also expected. Secondly, this phenomenon also shows that there is a certain urgency to relax the policy in Foshan market, especially since the second half of this year, Foshan has rarely made any moves to adjust the property market policy. Once the policy gate is opened, the market side will take effect quickly. It is expected that the relaxation policy of purchase restriction will continue to play a role in the short term. At that time, the confidence of Foshan property market transaction and owner's price increase is expected to continue to rise.

In Xie Ranfeng's view, the positive effect of lifting the ban on purchase restriction on Guicheng Street is more obvious. Guicheng is close to Guangzhou, and the price advantage and planning facilities are the focus of Guangzhou spillover customers.

Taking the Qiandeng Lake plate in Guicheng Street as an example, a set of 140 square meter housing in Zhonghai Wanjinhaoyuan was listed at 7 million yuan, and the housing price was revised to 765,438+10,000 yuan on February 13.

According to the Securities Times, when the purchase restriction policy was released that night, the price of second-hand houses in the popular residential area of Qiandeng Lake was raised by 300,000 yuan.

At the same time, local media reported that after the liberalization of the purchase restriction policy, the number of customers visiting multiple new houses and properties increased, and 40 sets of projects were sold one day.

Xie Ranfeng analyzed that the loosening of ancestral halls, Guicheng and daliang town Street near Guangzhou will have a great impact on the Guangzhou property market. Especially popular sectors such as Sanshan New Town and Zumiao, due to geographical advantages and the convenience of Guangfo Line, compared with Guangzhou Steel, Haizhu and Tianhe, the purchase threshold is lower and the cost performance is higher, and part of Guangzhou's purchasing power will be diverted by Foshan.

Xie Ranfeng said that with the comprehensive relaxation of the purchase restriction policy, some housing demand that is really limited by the number of houses purchased will be released, and with the optimization of epidemic prevention, the market turnover will temporarily rebound, which will have a bottoming effect on the current downward property market. In the short term, the value of the property market in the central city remains unchanged and the house price is stable. Although the heat has increased after the lifting of the ban, the inventory of Zumiao, Guicheng and Daliang is relatively large, mainly destocking, and the house prices are stable.

Several hotspot cities adjust purchase restriction policies

China News reported that at present, more and more cities with high energy level and strong development have heard the voice of loosening the purchase restriction, which has brought new signals to the real estate market.

Li pointed out that a new round of demand-side incentive policies has entered hot cities in an all-round way, especially new first-tier cities like Foshan. Not long ago, Xi, Chengdu, Hangzhou and other places. If the city's energy level is greater than Foshan, it will start to adjust the purchase restriction. It is not surprising that Foshan withdrew from the purchase restriction. "It shows that the new round of demand-side policy rescue has fully entered hot cities."

Only since the third quarter of this year, according to the statistics of the paper, the optimization policies of core first-and second-tier cities including Qingdao, Jinan, Suzhou, Tianjin, Chengdu, Xi, Xiamen and Beijing have been introduced one after another.

Among them, Qingdao, Jinan, Chengdu, Xi and other places have successively reduced the restricted purchase area.

Taking Qingdao as an example, Qingdao optimized the purchase restriction policy on September 15. According to the Dynamic Improvement of Qingdao Real Estate Policy, Shinan District and Shibei District (except sifang district) continue to implement the purchase restriction policy; New commercial housing will be built in the restricted area. Local residents will be restricted to 2 sets, families with two children and three children will be restricted to 1 set, and foreign residents will be restricted to 1 set after living for half a year.

In the new policy, the restricted area of second-hand houses has been adjusted. First-hand houses and second-hand houses in Shinan District and Shibei District are still subject to the purchase restriction policy, and all first-hand houses and second-hand houses in other areas are restricted.

On the basis of narrowing the scope of purchase restriction in May this year, Jinan optimized the purchase restriction policies and measures again in September. On September 15, Jinan Daily reported that in order to further support the demand for rigid and improved housing, Jinan continued to optimize the real estate policies and measures, and continued to implement the purchase restriction in Lixia District and Shizhong District within the Second Ring Road, which was implemented on September 16. This also means that "in addition to these two areas, there is no need to retry the purchase restriction in other areas".

Xi 'an announced that Lintong District, Shanglin Street of Fengdong New Town in Xixian New Area, Gao Qiao Street of Fengxi New Town, Mawang Street and the non-restricted areas managed by High-tech Zone will no longer be included in Xi 'an's housing purchase restriction and sale restriction scope.

In the eyes of the industry, the comprehensive lifting of restrictions on purchases in Foshan will greatly inspire the adjustment of property market policies in cities around Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, such as Guangshen and Zhongshan, which are close to Foshan, and reduce some bearish feelings.