Preliminary Accounting of China's Gross Domestic Product in the First Three Quarters of 2020

According to relevant basic data and gross domestic product (GDP) accounting methods, after preliminary accounting, the results of China's GDP accounting in the third quarter of 2023 are as follows.

Table1Preliminary Accounting Data of GDP in the Third Quarter of 2023

Absolute amount (100 million yuan)

An increase of% over the same period last year.

three-fourths

The first three quarters

three-fourths

The first three quarters

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

307627

870269

3.9

3.0

primary industry

25642

54779

3.4

4.2

Secondary industry

12 1553

350 189

5.2

3.9

service industry

160432

465300

3.2

2.3

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

26750

57393

3.6

4.4

industry

99590

293475

4.6

3.7

8 1850

244 165

4.0

3.2

construction industry

22450

58025

7.8

4.8

Wholesale and retail trade

295 16

82883

One point six

1.2

Transportation, warehousing and postal services

13 157

3570 1

2.6

0.3

Accommodation and catering industry

4837

12504

2.8

-0.7

Financial industry

248 13

73786

5.5

5.5

realty business

18030

55565

-4.2

-4.4

Information transmission, software and information technology services

10959

35426

7.9

8.8

Leasing and business services

9433

257 14

5.4

2.5

Other industries

48092

139798

4.4

3. 1

note:

1. The absolute quantity is calculated at the current price, and the growth rate is calculated at the constant price;

2. Three industrial divisions are based on the Regulations on Three Industrial Divisions revised by the National Bureau of Statistics 20 18;

3. Industry classification adopts National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T 47542017);

4. Some GDP data in this table are not equal to the sum of all industries (industries), which is due to rounding error and no mechanical adjustment.

Click: related data sheet.

Table 2 Year-on-year 2GDP growth rate

Unit:%

age

tighten the spring

Second season

three-fourths

Fourth quarter

20 17

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.8

20 18

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.5

20 19

6.3

6.0

5.9

5.8

2020

-6.9

3. 1

4.8

6.4

202 1

18.3

7.9

4.9

4.0

2022

4.8

0.4

3.9

Note: The year-on-year growth rate is the growth rate compared with the same period of last year.

Table 3 GDP growth rate

Unit:%

age

tighten the spring

Second season

three-fourths

Fourth quarter

20 17

1.8

1.7

One point six

One point six

20 18

1.9

1.7

1.4

1.4

20 19

1.7

1.4

1.3

1. 1

2020

- 10. 1

1 1.6

3.2

2.4

202 1

0.8

1.4

0.4

1.3

2022

1.6

-2.7

3.9

Note: The chain growth rate is seasonally adjusted compared with the previous quarter.

Other related accounting results can be found in the database of the National Bureau of Statistics ().

Attachment:

China GDP Quarterly Accounting Description

1. Overview of quarterly GDP accounting

The basic concept of 1. 1

GDP is the final result of the production activities of all permanent units in a country in a certain period of time. GDP is the core index of national economic accounting, and it is also an important index to measure a country's economic situation and development level.

There are three methods of GDP accounting, namely, production method, income method and expenditure method, which reflect the results of national economic production activities from different angles. Production method is a method to obtain added value by excluding intermediate goods and services from the value of goods and services created in the production process. The formula for calculating the added value of production modes in various industries of the national economy is: added value = total output-intermediate input. Add up the added value of modes of production in various industries of the national economy and get the GDP of modes of production. Income method is to calculate the results of production activities from the perspective of income generated by production process. According to this calculation method, the added value consists of four parts: workers' remuneration, net product tax, depreciation of fixed assets and operating surplus. The calculation formula is: added value = remuneration of workers+net product tax+depreciation of fixed assets+operating surplus. The sum of the added value of income method in all industries of national economy is equal to the gross domestic product of income method. Expenditure method is a method to calculate GDP from the perspective of the final use of production activities. End-use includes final consumption expenditure, total capital formation and net export of goods and services.

The quarterly GDP released by the National Bureau of Statistics is based on the results of production method accounting.

1.2 accounting range

1.2. 1 production range

The production scope of GDP accounting includes the following four parts: first, the production of goods or services provided or prepared by producers to other units; Second, the self-sufficient production of all commodities formed by producers for their final consumption or fixed capital; The third is the self-sufficient production of knowledge carrier products by producers for their final consumption or the formation of fixed capital, but it does not include similar activities carried out by family departments; Fourth, the self-sufficient production of housing services provided by self-owned houses and family and personal services provided by paid family service personnel. The scope of production does not include unpaid family and personal services, natural activities without unit control (such as the natural growth of wild, uncultivated forests, wild fruits or berries, and natural growth of fish on the high seas).

1.2.2 Scope of main production activities

The main scope of GDP production activities includes all permanent units with economic interest centers within the economic map of China. The quarterly GDP data in this report is the national data calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics, excluding the regional GDP data of Hongkong, Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province Province.

1.3 accounting unit

GDP accounting mainly takes legal entity as accounting unit. In accounting, enterprises are divided into different industries according to their main activities, and the added value of each industry is calculated respectively, and then the added value of each industry is summarized to get GDP.

1.4 accounting frequency

The accounting frequency is once a quarter. From 1992 1 quarter to the second quarter of 20 15, China adopted the cumulative accounting method to calculate quarterly GDP, that is, 1 quarter, 1-2 quarter, 1-3 quarter and1respectively. Since the third quarter of 20 15, the quarterly accounting method has been changed, that is, the GDP data of the first quarter, the second quarter, the third quarter and the fourth quarter of each year are calculated respectively, and the accumulated data are obtained by adding the quarterly data.

From 20 1 1 quarter to 1 quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics officially released the GDP growth rate of each quarter.

1.5 legal basis and system provisions

GDP accounting strictly abides by the provisions of the Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China. At present, China's GDP is accounted according to the requirements of China National Economic Accounting System (20 16), which adopts the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of United Nations National Economic Accounting System (2008).

1.6 confidentiality

According to Article 9 of Chapter 1 of the Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China, statistical institutions and statisticians shall keep confidential the state secrets, business secrets and personal information they know in their statistical work.

Accountants in various countries keep the unpublished professional statistical data and administrative records strictly confidential when conducting GDP accounting, and also keep the current GDP data strictly confidential before the GDP accounting data is published.

1.7 user requirements

Domestic users of quarterly GDP data are mainly government departments, research institutions, universities, industry associations, media and the public. In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics regularly provides quarterly GDP data of China to the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations.

2. Quarterly GDP accounting method

2. 1 classification system

In the quarterly GDP accounting, industry classification is based on "China National Economic Industry Classification Standard" and "The Third Industry Classification Standard", and two classification methods are adopted.

The first classification is the national economic industry classification, which adopts the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-20 17) issued by the National Standards Management Department in 2017. The actual accounting adopts two-level classification.

The first-level classification is based on the categories in the industry classification of the national economy, and it is divided into agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail, transportation, warehousing and postal services, accommodation and catering, finance, real estate, information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and other industries1kloc-0/industries. Among them, the industry includes mining, manufacturing, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply; Other industries include scientific research and technical services, water conservancy, environmental and public facilities management, residential services, repair and other services, education, health and social work, culture, sports and entertainment, public administration, social security and social organizations.

On the basis of the first classification, the second classification refines some categories in the national economic industry classification into industry categories.

The second classification is the classification of tertiary industry, which is divided into primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry according to the Regulation on Classification of Tertiary Industry revised by National Bureau of Statistics 20 18. The primary industry refers to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (excluding agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery majors and auxiliary activities); The secondary industry refers to the mining industry (excluding mining majors and auxiliary activities), the manufacturing industry (excluding metal products and machinery and equipment repair industry), the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water, and the construction industry; The tertiary industry, namely the service industry, refers to other industries (excluding international organizations) except the primary industry and the secondary industry.

1. National statistical survey data refers to all kinds of statistical data obtained by the national statistical system, such as agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, real estate, service industries above designated size, population and labor wages, price statistics and other statistical survey data.

Second, administrative records of administrative departments, mainly including relevant data of the Ministry of Finance, China People's Bank, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and other administrative departments. For example, the local and foreign currency credit receipts and payments of financial institutions of the People's Bank of China, and the tax information of different industries in State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China.

2.3 accounting methods

2.3. 1 accounting method of current added value

2.3. Speed calculation algorithm of1.1correlation index

The speed calculation algorithm of related value index is to calculate the growth rate of emerging value added with the current price growth rate of related value index, and then multiply it by the calculated growth rate of current price added in the same period of last year. The calculation formula is as follows:

Current added value = current added value in the same period of last year ×( 1+ current added value growth rate)

Among them, the current value-added growth rate is determined according to the current value growth rate of relevant value indicators and the quantitative relationship between the current value-added growth rate of previous years and the current value growth rate of relevant value indicators.

2.3. 1.2 Method of calculating current price by using constant price

Firstly, the constant price added value of this period is obtained by extrapolating the quantity index, and then the emerging price added value is calculated according to the relevant price index. The calculation formula is:

Current price added value = constant price added value × price index

2.3.2 Accounting method of constant price added value

Constant price added value is to convert the added value calculated at the current price into the value calculated at a fixed period (base period), thus eliminating the influence of price fluctuation factors and making the values in different periods comparable. The added value of constant price is calculated by the fixed base period method. At present, the base period is changed every five years, and the base period of constant price increase from 202/kloc-0 to 2025 is 2020.

Quarterly constant price added value accounting mainly adopts price index reduction method and related quantitative index extrapolation method.

2.3.2. 1 price index reduction method

Use the relevant price index to directly subtract the current price added value and calculate the constant price added value. The calculation formula is:

Industry constant price added value = industry current price added value/price index

Extrapolation method of 2.3.2.2 quality index

Calculate the growth rate of constant price added value by using the growth rate of related material index, and then calculate the current constant price added value by using the constant price added value of the same period last year and the calculated constant price added value growth rate. The calculation formula is:

Industry constant price added value = industry constant price added value in the same period of last year ×( 1+ industry constant price added value growth rate)

Among them, the growth rate of constant price added value is determined according to the growth rate of related material index in this period and the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of constant price added value and the growth rate of related material index in previous years.

2.4 Seasonal adjustment

The growth rate of GDP is the result of comparing the quarterly added value with the data of the previous quarter. When calculating, we must eliminate the influence of seasonal factors on time series, and use NBS-SA, the seasonal adjustment software of the National Bureau of Statistics, to adjust the time series seasonally. NBS-SA is developed on the basis of seasonal adjustment software widely used in the world at present, taking into account the unique seasonal factors in China. The software adds a new module to deal with seasonal factors unique to China, effectively eliminating seasonal factors unique to China, including mobile holiday factors such as Spring Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival, etc., and the working day is changed from the original 6-day system to 5-day system, as well as holiday changes and changes brought by holidays.

3. Revision of quarterly GDP data

3. 1 necessity of revision

The preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP is very time-sensitive, and it is generally published around 15 days after the quarter. At this time, all the basic data needed for GDP accounting cannot be obtained, so professional statistical progress data and related indicators are used for quarterly GDP preliminary accounting. After that, with the continuous increase and improvement of existing basic data, GDP data will be revised with more complete basic data, such as professional statistical annual report, industry financial data, financial final accounts data, etc., so as to more accurately reflect the actual situation of economic development.

3.2 Revision procedure

According to the latest GDP accounting and data release system reform of the National Bureau of Statistics, quarterly GDP accounting in China is divided into two steps: preliminary accounting and final verification. Usually, after the annual GDP is finally verified, the quarterly data should be revised, which is called routine revision; After the national economic census is carried out, new basic data that have great influence on GDP data are found, or the annual GDP historical data are revised after the calculation method and classification standard change, and the quarterly GDP historical data should also be revised accordingly. This revision is called comprehensive revision.

3.3 Revision method

3.3. 1 quarterly data revision

At present, the method of revising quarterly GDP data in China is proportional convergence method, that is, the method of adjusting quarterly data by using the difference between the annual benchmark value and the sum of the four quarters of the year. The basic method of proportional connection is: firstly, connect the current price and constant price added value of each industry of the national economy respectively, and GDP and the added value of the three industries are the sum of the added values of each industry after connection. The connection method between constant price GDP and the added value of constant price three industries is the same as the current price.

3.3.2 Revision of ring comparison data

Because the object of seasonal adjustment is time series data, when any quarterly data in time series changes, it will affect the result of seasonal adjustment; Adding the data of the latest quarter to the time series will also make the ring-on-ring data of the previous quarter change more or less, which is the result of automatic correction of the model. According to the principle of seasonal adjustment, in general, the data will be greatly affected in the period close to the latest data; In the period away from the latest data, the data is less affected. For the convenience of users, while releasing the current month-on-month data, the revised month-on-month data of last quarter will be released through the website of the National Bureau of Statistics.

4. Quarterly GDP data quality assessment

4. 1 basic data evaluation

Relevant departments will conduct quality inspection on professional statistical data and administrative record data used in GDP accounting to ensure that the data reasonably reflect the actual situation of economic development. After getting these basic data, the GDP accounting department will check the completeness and accuracy of the data again to ensure that these data meet the concept and requirements of GDP accounting.

4.2 Evaluation of accounting methods

In GDP accounting, the GDP accounting department will revise the quarterly GDP accounting method in China according to the reality of China's economic development and the constantly improving national economic accounting standards to ensure the rationality of the accounting method.

4.3 Evaluation of accounting results

After the quarterly GDP accounting results are obtained, it is necessary to check the coordination of GDP data, GDP data and relevant professional and departmental statistical data and macro data to ensure the coordination and matching of GDP data with other major data. A system for evaluating the basic statistical data of various industries and departments with national economic accounting as the core framework is being established.

4.4 Comparability of data

China's National Economic Accounting System (20 16) adopts the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nations National Economic Accounting System (2008), so the GDP data is internationally comparable.

The historical data of quarterly GDP was revised after the national economic census was carried out or the calculation method and classification standard changed, so the quarterly GDP time series since 1992 1 quarter is comparable.

5. Quarterly GDP data release

5. 1 release time

The preliminary accounting figures of quarterly GDP are generally released around 15 after the quarter, and the final verification figures of quarterly GDP are generally released at 1 the following year. For the release of major statistical indicators, the National Bureau of Statistics will indicate the release date in the "Major Statistical Information Release Schedule" released at the beginning of the year, and the GDP data will be released according to the prescribed schedule.

5.2 Release method

The preliminary accounting figures of quarterly GDP were published in the press conference of quarterly national economic operation, the website of National Bureau of Statistics (www.stats.gov.cn) and China Economic Prosperity Monthly. The final verification results of quarterly GDP were published in the National Statistical Database (/) and China Economic Prosperity Monthly. For the quarterly GDP data time series since 1992 1 quarter, you can query it through the national statistical database (/).

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