1 1a-share bank mortgage concentration "crossed the red line" and the mortgage quota was tightened.

The landing of new regulations on real estate loans has caused waves in the personal mortgage loan market.

A few days ago, every time a reporter visited Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places, he found that the personal mortgage quotas of many banks were tightened.

"At present, there is no loan amount for the first suite of individuals, and it is impossible to lend money now, at least until June."

"Our quota here is quite small now. If the customer decides to do it now, we are not sure when we can lend money, and the reply can only be uncertain. "

"March (lending) may be the fastest. This year's situation is particularly grim. On the whole, the central bank will reduce the amount of mortgage loans. "

Some bank staff mentioned that after the new mortgage regulations came into effect, their bank set a very tight mortgage quota, and now lending is very slow.

So under the new regulations, which banks' real estate loans exceed the standard? How many real estate loans will be "squeezed out" of the market? Will the new regulations have an impact on ordinary homebuyers' loans to buy a house? The reporter of National Business Daily counted the proportion of individual housing loans (mortgage loans) and real estate loans in the total loans of 37 listed banks by the end of June last year, and found that the proportion of individual housing loans or real estate loans of 1 1 banks crossed the "red line".

How many banks "exceed the standard"? Nearly 30%!

Nine real estate loans exceeded the standard and eight personal housing loans exceeded the standard.

In recent years, "housing without speculation" has become the main tone of real estate regulation. On the last day of 2020, the People's Bank of China, together with the China Banking Regulatory Commission, released the Notice on Establishing the Management System of the Concentration of Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions (hereinafter referred to as the Notice) to restrict the real estate loans of banking financial institutions.

In the Notice, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission classified the concentration of real estate loans into five levels according to the asset size and institution type of different banks.

Specifically, the first file is large Chinese banks, including six state-owned banks of industry, agriculture, China, construction, communications and postal services and China Development Bank. These seven banks have a ceiling of 40% for real estate loans and 32.5% for personal housing loans. It is worth noting that the real estate loans referred to here include real estate loans in bank corporate loans and personal housing loans in personal loans.

According to the semi-annual report of A-share listed banks, National Business Daily found that by the end of June 2020, among 37 banks, 1 1 had exceeded the "red line" in personal housing loans or real estate loans, accounting for 29.73%. Specifically, 9 banks' real estate loans exceeded the standard, 8 banks' personal housing loans exceeded the standard, and 6 banks' two loans exceeded the standard.

Among the first batch of large Chinese banks, the balance of real estate loans of six state-owned banks did not cross the red line, but the balance of personal housing loans of two banks slightly exceeded the indicators stipulated in the new regulations, namely China Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank. The concentration of individual housing loans in these two banks was 34.03% and 33.64%, respectively, which exceeded the red line of 32.5% 1.53 percentage points and 1.53 percentage points respectively.

Among the second medium-sized Chinese banks, China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, two national joint-stock banks, both exceeded the standard at the end of June 2020. Among them, China Merchants Bank's personal housing loans and real estate loans accounted for 24.74% and 33.24% respectively, which exceeded the regulatory ceiling by 4.74 and 5.74 percentage points respectively.

Industrial Bank's personal housing loans and real estate loans accounted for 25.73% and 33.73% respectively, exceeding 5.73 and 6.23 percentage points. In addition, the proportion of real estate loans of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank also slightly exceeded the red line by 0.43 percentage points.

Among the third small Chinese banks and non-county rural cooperative institutions, the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans of four city commercial banks, including Bank of Zhengzhou and Qingdao Bank, exceeded the standard.

It is worth noting that the regulatory authorities have given certain flexibility to the red line indicator of concentration. According to the circular, the branches above the sub-provincial city center branch of the People's Bank of China, together with the branches of the local CBRC, can raise or lower the management benchmark of the concentration of Class III, IV and V real estate loans by 2.5 percentage points on the premise of full demonstration and in light of specific conditions.

The upper limit of real estate loans and the "red line" of personal housing loans corresponding to the tertiary banking institutions where Hangzhou Bank is located are 22.5% and 17.5% respectively. If the supervision determines the upper limit within the range of 2.5 percentage points (that is, real estate loans account for 20%~25% and personal housing loans account for 15% ~ 20%), then from the data disclosed in the semi-annual report,

How much real estate loan funds will be squeezed out in the future?

Static calculation is close to one trillion.

The Notice leaves a transition period for banking financial institutions to adjust their business, stipulating that if the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans exceeds the management requirements by less than 2 percentage points, the transition period for business adjustment is 2 years from the date of implementation of the Notice, that is, 65438+3 1 day in February 2022, and 4 years from the date of implementation, that is, the end of 2024.

Regardless of the regulatory requirements of increasing or decreasing the loan concentration of three or four banks by 2.5 percentage points, if we look at the data at the end of June 2020, we can statically calculate the total amount of real estate loans exceeding the standard of listed banks under the new regulations, and we can also roughly estimate the loan funds that banks will decline under the regulatory requirements of business adjustment in the future.

According to statistics, among the 37 listed banks, 1 1 bank real estate loans or personal housing loans exceeded the standard. After calculation, the total loan of this 1 1 bank has reached 9.51900 million yuan.

Xia Dan, chief real estate analyst of Bank of Communications Jin Yan Center, told the National Business Daily that although these banks are under pressure to reduce the scale of real estate loans, they have been given a transition period of 2-4 years due to the "no sharp turn" policy, which can be appropriately extended according to the actual situation. Generally speaking, the adjustment pressure is not great. It is roughly estimated that the total amount of stock to be reduced each year is about 200 billion real estate loans and 300 billion personal housing loans, which has little impact.

She further pointed out that, specifically, among banks that exceed the red line, large banks have fewer excess points, and only some medium-sized banks and city commercial banks have more excess points. Possible measures are as follows: First, "substitution", appropriate allocation of credit products with risk-return ratio similar to real estate loans, and appropriate increase in the issuance of personal loan products such as credit cards;

The second is "molecular subtraction", which collects and reduces overdue and non-performing real estate loans and increases the circulation of existing loans through asset securitization;

The third is to "add extra points" to support the real economy and expand loans in other fields.

Nearly 800 billion individual housing loans need to be reduced.

Survey: Many banks have tightened their mortgage quotas.

According to the reporter's statistics, 8 of the 37 listed banks account for more than the red line designated by the supervision.

Judging from the overall pressure drop scale, the reporter learned through static calculation that in order to adjust business compliance, banks will probably reduce personal housing loans by about 790.3 billion yuan in the future.

Banks will reduce personal housing loan funds by nearly 800 billion yuan, which makes some mortgage buyers worry about whether it will affect individuals' application for housing loans. Will it be more difficult to apply for a housing loan in the future?

Li Guangzi, director of the Banking Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the notice has limited impact on ordinary property buyers. He told reporters that mortgage loans are relatively high-quality assets of banks at present, and buyers can also turn to other banks with low concentration of real estate loans to apply for loans.

Xia Dan told reporters that banks will not reduce the pressure of individual housing loans and residents' normal demand for new housing loans will not be significantly affected if there is no abnormality in repayment. Just need, especially the first set of just need, is still the direction of strong policy support.

However, the process of qualification examination and loan approval for individual borrowers may be stricter, and the time for lending may be lengthened. In particular, the introduction of policies at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is often the node of "returning blood" to bank credit lines, vigorously increasing loans and the backlog of loans at the end of last year. In the short term, the seasonal surge in new personal mortgage loans may be stable. In addition, with the decrease in the supply of credit resources, the loan price may also increase.

A few days ago, a reporter from the National Business Daily investigated personal housing loans in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and found that the quotas of many banks were tightened, and even some stock banks in Shanghai indicated that the loan time was uncertain.

The staff of a branch of China Merchants Bank in Shanghai told the reporter that after the new mortgage regulations came out, the bank where it was located set a very tight mortgage quota. Now the loan is very slow and there is no way to guarantee the timeliness. "Our quota here is quite small now. If the customer decides to do it now, we are not sure when we can lend money, and the reply can only be uncertain. " The staff of a branch of China Merchants Bank in Shenzhen also told the reporter that if the customer handles it now, it is expected that the loan will be released in March.

Similarly, a credit officer of a branch of Industrial Bank in Shanghai said: "At present, there is no loan quota for the first suite of individuals, so it is not possible to lend money now, at least until June. If it is a second suite, it may be faster, but now the quota is also very tight, and it is not certain when to lend money. "

The reporter learned from a branch of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank that the bank controls the mortgage amount every month, and it takes more than one month from acceptance to lending. "This is the minimum time. Almost the same as before. We are better. We have been controlling (quotas). Now some banks (lending) take three or four months. "

The price comes after the quota. According to Yangcheng Evening News, a real estate agent said that he had received the price adjustment notice from ICBC and CCB, saying that the interest rate of the first home mortgage rose to "LPR+55 basis points"; The second home mortgage interest rate rose to "LPR+75 basis points". This price adjustment information has also been confirmed by the relevant staff of the four major banks of Guangzhou Workers and Peasants Construction.

Which over-standard banks are under pressure to adjust their credit structure?

70% of new loans in Bank of Zhengzhou depend on real estate.

For 1 1 banks that exceed the standard, although this supervision has given a transition period of 2 to 4 years, judging from the new loan structure of some banks in the first half of 2020, they will still face adjustment pressure in the future.

Judging from the structure of new loans in the first half of 2020, among the 1 1 banks, there are still 9 new real estate loans or personal housing loans, accounting for more than the upper limit set by the central bank. Specifically, the proportion of new personal housing loans and new real estate loans in five banks, including China Merchants Bank and Bank of Zhengzhou, is higher than the upper limit; The proportion of real estate loans of Qingdao Bank, Industrial Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank "exceeded the standard"; Xiamen Bank only exceeds the proportion of individual housing loans.

Overall, among the 1 1 "over-standard" banks, in the first half of 2020, 3 new real estate loans accounted for more than 50% of all new loans, and 5 banks accounted for 30%-50%.

Among the big state-owned banks, the loan ratio of CCB and Postal Savings Office did not exceed the standard.

Among the joint-stock banks, housing-related loans of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank accounted for 49.3 1%, 37.76% and 33. 18% of the total new loans in the first half of the year, among which individual housing loans accounted for 36.72%, 25.54% and 18.07% respectively.

Soochow securities's research report pointed out that limited mortgage loans have an objective impact on the operation of China Merchants Bank, because mortgage loans are the quality business of commercial banks at present. Although the rate of return is not high, the non-performing rate is very low and the capital consumption is very small (converted into 50% of risky assets). However, China Merchants Bank has a rich retail product line, and consumer loans and personal business loans may replace mortgages and become the main force of new retail loans in the next few years.

Among the small and medium-sized banks, it is noteworthy that Bank of Zhengzhou, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank and Hangzhou Bank all accounted for more than half of the new loans in the first half of the year. Specifically, Bank of Zhengzhou accounts for 7 1.9%, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank accounts for 52.96%, and Hangzhou Bank accounts for 5 1.88%.

The analysis of the new loan structure of the above three banks in the first half of the year shows that the proportion of individual housing loans in Bank of Zhengzhou is as high as 49.22%, which also means that half of the bank's new loans in the first half of the year come from individual housing mortgage loans. Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank and Hangzhou Bank account for a relatively high proportion of loans in the real estate industry.

In addition, the housing-related loans of Qingdao Bank and Xiamen Bank accounted for 25.29% and 9.32% of the total new loans in the first half of the year, and the personal housing loans accounted for 1 1.72% and 20.38% respectively.

Can banks that do not exceed the standard sit back and relax?

More than half of the new loans of Jiangsu Bank are real estate loans.

Then, in the future, can banks whose balance ratio does not exceed the standard sit back and relax? Every time the reporter noticed, statically, as of the end of June 2020, there were 26 listed banks that did not exceed the regulatory limit. According to the structure of new loans in the first half of 2020, there are 10 banks "exceeding the standard".

For example, among joint-stock banks, Ping An Bank's new real estate loans accounted for 38.77% of the total new loans, and Huaxia Bank accounted for 30.75%, both exceeding the regulatory limit of 27.5%. The new personal housing loans of CITIC Bank accounted for 25.4% of the new loans, exceeding the regulatory requirements of 20%.

In addition, there is also a phenomenon of "exceeding the standard" in the new loans of seven small and medium-sized banks. For example, Nong Yu Commercial Bank, Changsha Bank and Zhangjiagang Bank accounted for 19.22%, 17.56% and 14.27% of all new loans in the first half of the year, and the corresponding upper limits were 17.5% and17.27% respectively. New real estate loans of Guiyang Bank accounted for 36.37% of all new loans, exceeding the regulatory requirements of 22.5%.

The two loans of Jiangsu Bank, Suzhou Bank and Jiangyin Bank all exceeded the standard. It is worth noting that in the first half of 2020, the proportion of real estate loans of Jiangsu Bank was the highest among the 26 banks that did not exceed the standard. Personal housing loans and real estate loans accounted for 29.36% and 56.97% of new loans, respectively, far above the regulatory upper limit of 20% and 27.5%.

It should be noted that from the perspective of the new loan structure in the first half of the year alone, some banks will be close to the edge of "exceeding the standard". For example, China Bank's new real estate loans accounted for 36.86% of the new loans in the first half of the year, which was close to the regulatory requirements of 40%. According to soochow securities's research report, it is expected that the credit resources of state-owned banks will continue to tilt towards small and micro loans in the process of adjustment, so as to meet the mortgage control policy and encourage small and micro loans.

Followed by Zheshang Bank, China CITIC Bank and Minsheng Bank, accounting for 26.93%, 26.82% and 26.42% respectively, close to the regulatory requirements of 27.5%.

At the same time, many banks have not exceeded the standard, and real estate loans account for a relatively small proportion of new loans. For example, Wuxi Bank, Nanjing Bank, Changshu Bank and Sunong Bank accounted for 65,438+00% ~ 65,438+05% of the total new loans in the first half of the year. Bank of Ningbo and Shanghai banks accounted for less than 10%.

Guo Sheng Securities pointed out in the research report that the overall level of institutions without adjustment pressure will be maintained, and there is limited room for future real estate loan growth. The circular stipulates that banking financial institutions whose real estate loan concentration meets the management requirements should steadily carry out real estate loan-related business and keep the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans basically stable. It reflects the intention of supervision to reasonably control the scale of real estate loans.

What changes have taken place in the real estate loans of financial institutions?

The growth rate continues to decline.

After analyzing the loan structure data of 37 listed banks, let's look at the changes in the scale of real estate loans of financial institutions across the country. According to the statistical report on the loan investment of financial institutions of the central bank, the growth rate of real estate loans of financial institutions in China has continued to decline in the past year.

Specifically, from the end of 20 19 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the balance of RMB real estate loans of financial institutions was 44.4 1 trillion yuan, 46. 16 trillion yuan, 47.40 trillion yuan and 48.83 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.8%.

In addition, the balance of RMB real estate loans accounted for 29%, 28.8 1%, 28.69% and 28.83% respectively.

Looking at the incremental data of real estate loans of financial institutions, it increased by 1.75 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2020, 2.99 trillion yuan in the first half of the year and 4.42 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, accounting for 24.6%, 24.7% and 27.2% of RMB loans in the same period respectively.

However, it is worth noting that new real estate loans in the first three quarters of 2020 were lower than the same period last year. The data shows that 20 19 increased by 1.82 trillion yuan in the first quarter, 3.2 1 trillion yuan in the first half of the year and 4.59 trillion yuan in the first three quarters.

From the fourth quarter of 20 19 to the third quarter of 2020, the RMB real estate loans increased each quarter were 1. 1.02 trillion yuan, 1.75 trillion yuan, 1.24 trillion yuan and1.

In addition, in the first three quarters of 2020, the growth rate of the balance of real estate development loans and personal housing loans of financial institutions showed a slowing trend. According to the report of the central bank, from the end of 20 19 to the third quarter of 2020, the balance of real estate development loans of financial institutions was 1 1.22 trillion yuan,1/0.89 trillion yuan and1respectively. In the same period, the balance of individual housing loans was 30.07 trillion yuan, 3 1. 1.5 trillion yuan, 32.36 trillion yuan and 33.59 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.06%,1.