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The classic material of college entrance examination composition: financial crisis

Crisis and opportunity coexist.

Professor Schroeder, then president of the Free University of Berlin, believes that the financial crisis has had a two-way impact on the global response to climate change. On the one hand, the financial crisis has caused huge losses to the global economy and will weaken the financial resources and political will of governments to deal with climate change. On the other hand, the financial crisis has made global investors pay attention to those investment fields with long-term growth prospects, such as new energy. The financial crisis makes people pay more attention to the improvement of energy efficiency, because improving energy efficiency means reducing costs.

At the same time, she also believes that the financial crisis has provided opportunities for China to increase investment in new energy. "In recent years, China has made great progress in improving energy efficiency. If China wants to be more competitive in the future, its energy efficiency needs to be further improved. In the context of the current financial crisis, China needs to increase investment to promote economic growth. Investing in new energy and energy-efficient industries is not only beneficial to the current economic development, but also very beneficial to China's future economic growth. "

Multi-directional interpretation I

For this financial crisis, we can think like this: How did this financial storm come about? How serious is the crisis? How long will it last? In addition to the harm to the financial industry, what other aspects have been affected? Through such questions, we can dig out its characteristics from its superficial phenomena and take countermeasures!

Applicable theme

Ask about the appearance and nature of the connection.

Multi-directional interpretation II

Crisis and opportunity coexist, and everything has two sides. Therefore, in the face of the crisis, we can't hold back because of its harm, but we should also see the development opportunities hidden under its harm. If we seize this opportunity, we may occupy an important position in the future world wave.

Applicable theme

Courage crisis and opportunity: dialectical view of crisis

Multi-directional interpretation 3

In the face of crisis, we can only do nothing, nothing? Of course not. We should use our wisdom, potential and insight to find ways to overcome it. Only in this way can we minimize the crisis and be safe in this crisis.

Applicable theme

The potential of wisdom gave me a pair of eyes.

Multi-directional interpretation 4

After the financial crisis broke out, many people talked about the color change of "gold" and thought that the world economy would go backwards for many years. The impact is certain, but we must have the mentality of facing the crisis. Some people are pessimistic and disappointed and only see negative effects, so they panic; Some people are optimistic and face it with a positive attitude, so they are calm. Different mentalities will determine different fates, so will people and countries!

Applicable theme

Facing pessimism and optimism positively determines fate.

Multi-faceted interpretation five

This is a global economic crisis, and no country can ignore it. To tide over the crisis, we must rely on everyone's joint efforts, unity and cooperation. In today's globalization, if you just turn a blind eye to your own self-interest, you will not only suffer from your own pain. Therefore, if we unite sincerely, we can achieve a win-win situation.

Applicable theme

Unity, cooperation, win-win, self-interest and altruism

The fundamental reason is the asymmetry between virtual economy and real economy. Including the asymmetry of economic aggregate and economic structure. And why there is asymmetry between virtual economy and real economy, which is the conclusion that Marx has drawn in the early days: the inevitable result of capitalist development.

1, subjectively, capitalism pursues the maximization of capital benefits, and the real economy is increasingly capitalized. However, the real economy and the increase of the real economy are limited, but the desire of capitalism is infinite. Although self-control has been achieved today, the greedy nature of capitalism has not changed. When capitalism is out of control in pursuit of maximizing capital benefits, it will produce the result that the total amount of virtual economy is greater than that of real economy. When this result keeps increasing, so that the virtual economy can't support the real economy, the economic crisis appears. In addition, because capitalism pursues the maximization of benefits, when capital is transferred to high-profit industries during the transition period, the capital of low-profit industries is scarce, which eventually leads to the imbalance between the virtual economy and the real economy structure, which will also produce economic fluctuations.

2. Objectively, with the development of productive forces, the proportion of production factors will be adjusted accordingly. With the development of productivity, when other factors of production increase or decrease slightly (such as petroleum energy), the function of funds will be weakened. This has caused the weakness of the capitalist economy. For a long time, capital has been very strong, which is based on sufficient raw materials and energy and surplus labor. Capital is in the seller's market and other factors are in the buyer's market. With the continuous increase of capital, and this increase is greater than the demand of other factors, the strength of capital will weaken.

In 2008, due to the accumulation of the last cycle, the crisis intensified. At the same time, the relative variables of production factors, especially raw materials and energy, have been relatively large in recent years.

Economic crisis in 2008

This autumn is more depressed than in previous years.

-Economic crisis in 2008

You are from Yale and I am from Harvard.

Working on Wall Street or Optics Valley

The hibernating bear wakes up and growls.

People threw away everything in their hands in horror.

The bar was crowded with unemployed friends.

Let's take a walk in the street.

At the gate of the government, I opened the cigarette case.

Light a new york 1929.

Tears, to no avail.

Splash of thousands of Margaret petals

Every piece of broken is asking:

Will definitely come. Tomorrow,

Would it be better?

The global financial system is facing the biggest crisis since 1929. How did the disease that started in the American real estate subprime mortgage market lead to a profound global crisis? Why is Wall Street so fragile? What role should the government and the market play in this crisis and how to save the global economy from collapse?

The subprime mortgage crisis finally completely broke the myth of Wall Street. After Bear Stearns was shot down, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States with a long history of 1.58 years, was also dying. Whether it is bankruptcy or rescue, Lehman, which once had a good reputation, has come to this step, which is definitely an indicator event in the post-war financial history. Because this is not a case, but a big outbreak of systemic risk.

At present, the world is experiencing a once-in-a-century financial crisis.

What is the financial crisis

The financial crisis, also known as the financial storm, refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institutions).

Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis, banking crisis and other types. Its characteristic is that people's expectations of the future economy are more pessimistic, the currency value of the whole region has depreciated sharply, and the economic aggregate and scale have suffered huge losses, which has hit economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil.

The causes of the financial crisis

The most fundamental reason for the financial crisis in the United States is that the decline in housing prices in the United States has led to the decline in the solvency of subprime borrowers. The savings rate of American residents has been declining. When the debt of American residents is too high to support the real estate bubble, the adjustment of the real estate market is inevitable, which in turn leads to a sharp increase in the default rate of subprime and high-quality floating-rate mortgages, and more and more mortgage borrowers are unable to repay their loans.

Once these mortgages are recovered, it will cause credit losses. The subprime mortgage crisis intensified, leading to the bankruptcy or takeover of major financial institutions on Wall Street, and the moderns on Wall Street finally came to an end.

15 In September, the US government refused to help Lehman Brothers, and Lehman Brothers announced that it would seek bankruptcy protection. The financial crisis caused by subprime mortgage will deepen, and the downward trend of the global economic boom cycle is almost a foregone conclusion.

So far, three of the five independent investment banks on Wall Street have disappeared within six months, and more financial institutions are waiting for fate. An ultimate question arises: has global financial capitalism come to an end, and should the government participate more in the micro-operation of the market?

Greed and fear are reflected in all aspects of the subprime mortgage crisis. Richard Bitner, an American real estate mortgage expert, revealed a terrible truth in the book The Truth of Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis-almost every link is full of lies and false assessments. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, accused that "a considerable part of loans in recent years are neither responsible nor prudent", which is almost synonymous with madness and irrationality in the language system of the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

But the fact is by no means so simple. The subprime mortgage crisis not only exposed the madness of financial institutions, but also exposed the madness of the economic development model led by the US government. Real estate loans in the United States are the basis for supporting loan consumption. Buyers buy houses through loans, obtain consumer loans through house appreciation, and sell real estate loan products to the whole world through various financial institutions-a chain of loans, consumption and production is formed with real estate as the center, and global dollar assets are constantly gathering in the United States in the form of liabilities or creditor's rights. In the chain of mortgage securitization, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play an important role in implicit government guarantee.

Isn't it? It was the intervention of the American government that made the American bond securitization market flourish in the late 1980s. It is through the use of mortgage loans to stimulate consumption that the economic data of the United States during the Clinton period are colorful. It is the implicit guarantee of the US government that allows billions of subprime mortgage products to be sold around the world through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It can be seen that the subprime mortgage crisis is not only the disillusionment of the financial capital market, but also the bankruptcy of the national policy of financial capitalism led by the American government to save the American economy and save consumption. If the financial market collapses, it is also the common collapse of the US government and American financial capitalism.

The innovation ability of American financial market is unparalleled, but no financial market can resist institutional fraud, and the subprime mortgage crisis just shows a large area of institutional fraud, from rating agencies to guarantee companies.

In the process of counterfeiting, financial assets have exploded. According to the data of McKinsey Global Institute, the proportion of global financial assets in global annual output has soared from 109% in 1980 to 3 16%. In 2005, the global core assets stock reached US$ 65,438+040 trillion. In the same period, the proportion of financial assets in Britain rose from 278% to 359%, while that in the United States rose from 303% to 405%. Josef Ackermann, CEO of Deutsche Bank, said: "I no longer believe in the self-repair ability of the market." The government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and saved Bear Stearns, which shows that the government's control ability has reached its limit.

After the subprime mortgage crisis, the international financial market will undergo profound changes. The intuitive performance is that the volume of financial assets has declined and investors have become more and more conservative. Joseph Yam, president of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said: "In the end, everyone may find it necessary to go back to the basics and realize the fundamental purpose of financial intermediation again, and the regulators responsible for protecting public interests should also realize that the simplest method may be more cost-effective in the long run." In fact, we don't want to be deceived by Wall Street's complicated financial derivatives. The basic function of the financial market is to raise funds, not to let greedy people get huge profits.

Investors began to protect themselves, holding cash and investing in the most conservative assets in order to survive the severe winter: investors in all markets reduced their leverage positions; Investors turned to safe assets such as cash and US Treasury bonds. The subprime mortgage crisis shows that financial derivatives should have clear boundaries and financial markets tend to be conservative, which acknowledges the conservative trend. The global financial market will not turn around again until the current economic downturn caused by subprime mortgage is safely passed.

Those countries that once believed in the American financial innovation system will become more cautious. They don't trust the complex financial system that is difficult to control. The subprime mortgage crisis will make them see the destructive power of unregulated financial markets, and sovereign investment funds and financial innovation in various countries will be more cautious.

However, it can be believed that financial capitalism will not return to the road of government supervision, but will move towards the road of strengthening supervision. Otherwise, the US government will continue to help Lehman Brothers and dozens of financial institutions facing the threat of bankruptcy. Possible regulatory measures include tightening capital requirements, putting forward more transparent requirements for off-balance-sheet assets of financial institutions, controlling credit ratings of rating agencies, punishing counterfeiters more severely, and being cautious about government credit guarantees in financial markets.

The subprime mortgage crisis is a process of scraping the bones and curing the poison of American financial capitalism. Just as the Great Depression of 1929 gave birth to Roosevelt's New Deal and the bankruptcy of Enron and WorldCom gave birth to Sarbanes-Oxley Act, the subprime mortgage crisis will give birth to new control means and new financial products.

* For ordinary people, what they feel most is not the financial crisis, but the economic slowdown, the inability to borrow from banks and the inability to overdraw credit cards.

The current financial crisis in the United States is a once-in-a-century consensus.

The financial crisis, also known as the financial storm, refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institutions).

The subprime mortgage crisis finally completely broke the myth of Wall Street. After Bear Stearns was shot down, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States with a long history of 158, declared bankruptcy. The collapse of Lehman Brothers, once famous, is definitely a landmark event in the post-war financial history. Because this is not a case, but a big outbreak of systemic risk.

At present, the world is experiencing a once-in-a-century financial crisis. In the context of globalization, such a crisis cannot be only related to the United States or the rich. Everyone in China should pay close attention to the changes it will bring to our lives. ...

-Look at the international changes:

10 in 200810 on October 20th, the Korean government implemented a large-scale financial rescue plan.

On October 20th, 2008/KLOC-0, the Dutch government made a large-scale capital injection into ING.

On120/2008, 10, Latin American central banks will jointly deal with the financial crisis.

In June+10+July 2008, Germany adopted a rescue plan of 500 billion euros.

On June 65438+1October 65438+July 2008, Citigroup lost its title as the largest bank in the United States.

On June 5438+1October 65438+May, 2008, US stocks reappeared "Black Wednesday".

On June 65438+10/October 65438+April 2008, the United States announced the details of the first rescue plan.

June 65438+10/October 65438+March 2008, Britain injected 37 billion pounds into banks.

On June 5438+10/October 65438+February 2008, the euro zone countries adopted a large-scale rescue plan.

On June 10, 2008, the Spanish government approved the establishment of a fund with a scale of 30 billion euros.

/10 2008 On June 9, 2008, the Financial Supervision Committee of the Icelandic government announced that it would take over Kaupthing, the country's largest commercial bank.

On June 8, 2008, 10, Sweden announced that it would provide assistance to Kaupthing's branch in Sweden.

On June 7, 2008, the Icelandic government announced that it would take over Landsbanki, the second largest local bank in financial difficulties.

On June 7, 2008, at 10, the Dow Jones index fell below 10000 for the first time in four years, which was the first time that the index fell below 10000 since June 2004.

The Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis on China's Economy

First, it is the huge debts of American households that have absorbed China's expanding production capacity.

The American financial crisis will first bring psychological impact. This crisis will inevitably create a pessimistic atmosphere in China's capital market. The assets of these financial institutions held by China will shrink, and overseas investors may also sell China assets in large quantities to save themselves at home, thus exerting downward pressure on China's capital market. But more importantly, China's economy is highly extroverted, and its total import and export value exceeds 60% of GDP. In the past, it was precisely because Americans borrowed money for consumption that China's excess capacity was digested, thus making both American finance and China's manufacturing industry prosperous. Now, the financial collapse in the United States will inevitably end the borrowing and consumption pattern in the United States, and China's manufacturing industry will be affected.

The dark clouds of the global financial crisis are gathering, and in the next two years, new financial crises will break out all over the world. The biggest victims of this financial crisis will be some emerging market countries, which brings challenges and new opportunities to the development of China.

Tao Dong: China has not been greatly affected by the subprime mortgage crisis.

Tao Dong said that fundamentally speaking, China is the only country that has not been affected by the subprime mortgage crisis on a large scale. Although capital account control has saved China again, after China's economy develops to a certain extent, financial opening and capital account opening are inevitable. ...

Shen Yin countries: The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis is limited.

Although due to the intervention of central banks, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States was once eased. However, with the further exposure of some problems in recent days, the situation seems to have become more serious, and the overseas securities market has also undergone drastic adjustments. ...

Citi Economist: The subprime mortgage crisis has no direct impact on China.

If the United States enters a depression, it is estimated that the American economy will slow down by 65,438+0% and the economic growth of China will slow down by 65,438+0.3%. The United States may cut interest rates by 0.25% in the second half of the year, and may continue to cut interest rates twice next year, and finally reach the neutral interest rate level of 4.5% by the end of 2008. ...

Ba Shusong: The subprime mortgage crisis has little impact on the China stock market.

Regarding the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the China stock market, Ba Shusong thinks that the impact is not significant. He believes that the subprime mortgage crisis has a greater psychological impact on the China stock market, and its direct contact channel is that companies listed in the two places may have price disputes. ...

Greenspan: The American financial crisis has never happened in a century.

In an interview with NBC, Greenspan said that this is the worst financial crisis he has ever seen in his career, and it may last for a long time and continue to affect the real estate prices in the United States.

Rogers: I don't think the financial crisis will bottom out in my lifetime.

Rogers said that this is a long road. In fact, it seems that we will never see it. He said: "Bernanke and his partners are coming to the rescue, which may temporarily cover up the problem." Of course, I don't know how long they can cover up, and then the disaster will continue. "

Bernanke proposed to transfer the non-performing assets of financial companies.

Bernanke proposed to transfer the non-performing assets in the balance sheets of American financial companies to a new institution. The plan is another effort by Paulson and Bernanke, who failed to restore confidence in the financial and real estate markets.

Paulson: I have confidence in the flexibility of the US financial market.

Paulson said that a healthy capital market is the main framework of a vibrant American economy and the key to the American economy and American family welfare. We should have confidence in the flexibility of American financial capital market.

Kahn: The economy will recover next year.

Kahn said that although the recent financial turmoil in the United States has increased the potential threat to economic development, the International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will gradually recover in 2009. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economic growth rate will drop to about 4% in 2008, which will be reflected in the economic slowdown of the United States, Europe and Japan, and the economic growth of most emerging market countries and developing countries will slow down.

Soros: Britain is next.

In an interview with a BBC reporter, Soros expressed his views on Lehman Brothers' application for bankruptcy protection and the plight of American International Group (AIG). He said: "I am worried that, to a certain extent, we are still in the process of entering the storm, rather than getting out of it."

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In response to the financial crisis, a series of national initiatives

China

Reduce the deposit reserve ratio and the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans.

Personal savings deposit interest tax will be temporarily exempted from 65438+ 10.

The Federal Reserve and five other central banks jointly cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

The Federal Reserve's 900-billion-pound blood transfusion banking system

Cut interest rates by 50 basis points together.

EU countries will raise the minimum deposit guarantee amount

The European Central Bank has increased its capital injection into the financial system.

Britain announced that the new rescue plan will cost 500 billion pounds.

The Japanese Prime Minister ordered the formulation of additional large-scale economic countermeasures.

The Bank of Japan injects funds into the money market three times a day.

Russia injected 950 billion rubles into banks on a large scale.

Russia sets a new price ceiling for the stock market.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 100 basis point, the highest in 16 years.

Spain set up a 30 billion euro fund to support banks.

The Netherlands increased the amount of guarantee for its bank deposit account to 654.38 million+Euro.

The German government has introduced many emergency measures.

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Behind the scenes of the 2008 financial crisis

The first culprit: investors who spend too much.

Behind the scenes is the infinite expansion of consumption and the desire to overdraw. The United States relies on the bubble in the capital market to maintain the overdraft behavior of consumers, and the market has been enlarged uncontrollably.

The second culprit: financial practitioners with bulging pockets

Under the banner of financial innovation, Wall Street launched various high-risk financial products and continuously expanded the market, resulting in a growing bubble.

The third culprit: regulators with eyes open and eyes closed.

The loose regulatory system in the United States has also led to this storm to a certain extent, and the entire regulatory system has obviously failed to keep up with the speed of financial innovation.

The fourth culprit: obedient Asian countries

The traditional economic growth model of Asian countries has given the United States unlimited power to implement loose monetary policy and transport liquidity, so that it has sufficient liquidity.

In 2008, the economic crisis hit the home furnishing industry, and the market in 2009 remains to be seen.

In the face of the sudden cold wind in 2008, people in the home furnishing industry have some reservations about the expectations in 2009, and it is generally said that it will take some time to adjust the favorable policies to produce results. Compared with the "optimistic" expectations in 2007 and 2008, this year's forecast for 2009 has been replaced by "to be seen".

There are only less than two months left in noisy 2008, and people are looking forward to a new beginning in 2009.

However, in the face of the sudden cold wind in 2008, people in the household industry have some reservations about the expectations of 2009, and generally say that it will take some time for favorable policies to be adjusted to produce results. Compared with the "optimistic" expectation for 2008 in 2007, this year's forecast for 2009 has been replaced by "to be seen".

Mr. Zhang, deputy general manager of Sino-Singapore Real Estate, predicted that this downturn will last until the end of 2009. Mr. Zhang's prediction seems to be not good news for the home furnishing industry. Liang, director of the Ceramics Division of Foshan Inspection and Quarantine Bureau, also thinks that the more difficult thing is yet to come: "I personally think that winter has not yet arrived, and now it can only be said that it is autumn. The impact of this crisis is quite large, and there will be more cold. "

"The real winter is coming soon. Some customers with orders have delayed the delivery time, and we will discuss that the situation will be more severe in the first and second quarters of next year. " Pu, chairman and general manager of Bai Tao Group, also said that there are more potential hidden dangers in the situation next year.

During the interview, the reporter also learned that due to many uncertainties in 2009, CB Home World in Zhuhai originally planned to open a store in Guangzhou, but due to the impact of the financial turmoil, the plan was temporarily slowed down.

According to industry insiders, accelerating competition is not a bad thing.

Regarding the unpredictable situation in 2008, insiders said that although the financial crisis struck suddenly and strongly, it was not groundless and market adjustment was inevitable. "The market will not always improve, and three years is an adjustment period. The real estate market was too hot a few years ago, so it is normal to have a buffer now. Don't be too pessimistic. " Insiders said.

Faced with great changes in the market situation, enterprises generally adopt two methods. One is defending and the other is attacking. After the cold wind in 2008, most enterprises have made full preparations for 2009, which is called the real winter.

The arrival of the crisis has prompted the home furnishing industry to make a new plan for its development strategy in 2009.

For enterprises, 2009 is both a reserve period and an outbreak period. Some excellent enterprises, going against the market, took the opportunity to inhale and expand their territory, and were far ahead when the market recovered after the crisis.

In addition to design, service is also a great weapon for enterprises to compete with the market in 2009.

Xingyi's "10" decoration after-sales service warranty has always enjoyed a high reputation in the industry. "Our decoration after-sales service warranty is 10 years, which is not a promise that ordinary enterprises can promise." Luo, chairman of Xingyi, said that in such an economic environment, maintaining a consistent service commitment is the foundation of sustainable development.

Postscript: In 2009, when the changing situation is even more unpredictable, the industry has made some predictions and preparations, which is no longer the helplessness caused by a storm in 2008. Is 2009 a "real winter" or a "low-key year"? Everything, the home furnishing industry seems to be ready, and the result depends on the announcement in 2009!

Select some papers I wrote the other day and copy them down.

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There are many, you can study by yourself, and I have read a lot, which is quite good.