Wheat is near the bottom, and corn finally has two good news!

Original products, plagiarism is prohibited, and offenders will be prosecuted.

At the beginning, I still want to talk about Document No.1 first.

Document No.1 can be said to be the most important document in the agricultural field every year, and it has a clear plan for the development of various agricultural industries and fields this year, which is worth talking about again.

After fully understanding the contents of the document, we can grasp a major trend in policy this year.

So, let's talk about corn and wheat briefly.

The relevant expression of wheat in the document is "continue to raise the minimum purchase price of wheat", which has been raised for three consecutive years since 202 1, so it is very obvious for wheat to maintain stability and strengthen.

There are profound background reasons for this:

First, in the international environment, the supply and demand of wheat are still tight.

Although the market seems to have completely digested the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Black Sea port has resumed transportation, this does not mean that the risk of the food crisis has been lifted.

On the one hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and there is still great uncertainty. On the other hand, the Black Sea port is about to face the risk of expiration.

In the global market, Ukraine's production reduction is a foregone conclusion. Although Russia is expected to increase production, its exports may not be completely smooth. Although Australian wheat production is expected to record continuously, global wheat consumption has also increased, so global wheat supply and demand are still in a state of tension, and global demand for rations is still strong.

Second, the importance of wheat has increased and the cost support is strong.

After wheat played an important role in the field of feed substitution in 202 1, it withdrew from substitution in 2022, and the price went up.

Under the background of tight supply and demand in the international wheat market and strong demand for guaranteed rations, the importance of domestic wheat has increased.

The price difference between wheat and corn has also become one of the bottom supports of wheat.

On the other hand, with the increase of planting cost, the bottom support of wheat is obvious, and the policy has made it clear that it will continue to raise the minimum purchase price of wheat and release the strong wheat signal again, so the bottom price of wheat is basically foreseeable.

Then, according to our previous analysis, consumption has weakened and wheat prices have fallen, but it is expected that the bottom support will be strengthened after falling to the range of 1.57- 1.59 yuan/kg.

At present, wheat is approaching this range, which means that wheat is approaching the bottom.

Let's talk about corn

This year's document has little direct benefit to corn, especially after the expansion of beans, corn and soybeans love each other and kill each other. The market generally believes that the price difference between corn and soybean subsidies may further widen this year.

However, according to the new agricultural concept, this can't be the key factor, or the impact on corn is not great, because the price of corn is the ultimate impact on planting.

Although the news of corn market has been empty since 2006, there are two good news for corn recently, which may reassure friends who are worried about corn.

The first news is that in 2022, the consumption of corn by feed production enterprises in China will increase by 30. 1%.

As we all know, the bulk of corn consumption is feed, so the increase in feed demand is a big plus for corn.

There are several reasons for the increase in corn consumption in feed last year:

First, the substitution of wheat and barley decreased significantly last year, and the substitution of sorghum and broken rice increased, but it did not pose a great threat to corn.

Second, the output of pig feed last year was135.975 million tons, up 4% year-on-year.

We must know that the pig production capacity has returned to the normal range last year, and from the overall pig price trend last year, the first half of the year was also sluggish, and it began to rebound in the second half, which is similar to this year's trend.

Moreover, some institutions predict that the output of live pigs will exceed that of last year. No matter how high the pre-judgment probability is, at least after the prevention and control is fully liberalized this year, consumption will resume one after another, which should not be too bad compared with last year's demand level.

In addition, according to statistics, China's feed consumption reached about 380 million tons last year, accounting for nearly half of the total grain consumption.

At present, feed consumption in China is on the rise, which means that feed consumption will still increase.

Then, the growth of feed demand is the biggest benefit of corn.

The second news is that it is reported that the directional rice auction may be delayed because of the risk of corn quantity.

If this news is true, then the policy will be more clear about the price protection signal of corn.

After the news of the early directional rice auction came out, the corn market fluctuated, which also aggravated the bearish mood. However, if it is delayed, it will alleviate the huge selling pressure of corn.

In this way, the pessimism of corn is not so heavy.

More hot spots, welcome to collect the "new agricultural concept" and understand the new development of agriculture, rural areas and farmers in the new era.