If the project starts in April, how many people can withstand the economic pressure?

If we only look at personal savings, it should be no problem for at least 80% people in the country to start working in April. After all, it is not difficult for China people who love to save money to deposit a two-month income. But the reality is not as simple as we think.

If they really start work in April, at least one-third of them will not be able to hold on. Of course, this does not mean that their savings can't hold up, but that employers can't hold up and individuals are unemployed. However, it will be much more difficult for a large number of unemployed people to find jobs in a short time, so when they start working in April, many people will find themselves silent and unemployed.

According to the survey conducted by Tsinghua University's team on February 6th, 2020, it is predicted that 34% of enterprises in China can only maintain 1 month, 33. 1% for two months and 17.9438+0% for three months. In other words, as long as 67. 1% of enterprises can last for two months, nearly one-third of enterprises in the country will worship.

Many people may not understand that enterprises have been making money for so many years in the past. How can they not survive in just two months? Many enterprises don't have no money, but no capital flow, and the break of capital flow is the most terrible, which is why there is a concept of "cash is king" in finance to explain that cash is very important.

To give a simple example, the enterprise has earned 10000000000 yuan this year through its hard development in previous years, but this10000000000 yuan is not all in the company's account, including 40 million yuan in inventory, 30 million yuan in accounts receivable, 20 million yuan in various fixed assets investment and 500 yuan in advance payment. Assuming that an enterprise's fixed expenditure per month is 8 million yuan, excluding the cost of raw materials, in the past, an enterprise could extract 30 million yuan from its monthly sales. Assuming that the cost of raw materials is 20 million yuan, after deducting the cost of raw materials, it can always maintain a stable income of 6.5438+million yuan/month, and then deduct the fixed expenditure, it can save 2 million yuan per month, so there is no problem in enterprise operation, but once the enterprise stops working, it will lose its income. This is the break of the capital chain. In reality, many enterprises may have no problems in their own operations, but because of the break of the capital chain (usually caused by blind and rapid expansion), enterprises are overdue and owe interest, which eventually leads to the recovery of all suppliers' payment and the forced closure of enterprises.

Many people will say why the company doesn't leave more money in the account. When you become a boss, you will know that most people will be ambitious and want to continue to grow bigger, so they will keep investing. Of course, this does not mean that the company does not leave money in the account. Generally, more than 90% will leave enough money for 1 month. 70% will last for about 2 months; About 50% of enterprises are likely to stay for three months, and those who stay for six months will basically not exceed 5%. Because the business owner's belief is that it is the stupidest to put money in an account, and it is only wise to reinvest it.

To sum up, if the project starts in April, it should not be a problem to look at 80% of the deposits alone, but considering the subsequent impact, it is estimated that at most 60% of the people can hold on, so the later the project starts, the better. Not everyone is a civil servant or an employee of a public institution, a central enterprise or a state-owned enterprise.

It is unlikely that the project will be fully started in April. At least from the current trend, many parts of the country will usher in a wave of return to work in late February and early March. April is not impossible, and the relative probability will be much smaller.

As for the issue of deposits, I think the bosses of small and micro enterprises may be more untenable than ordinary employees.

Below, on this topic, I personally say some of my own views for your reference only.

Judging from the current trend, I think the epidemic situation is still developing in a good direction.

On the one hand, in other areas of the country except Hubei, the new cases of the epidemic have been effectively controlled, not necessarily decreased significantly, at least there are few obvious new cases.

Recently, let's look at the official data. Many provinces and cities have seen a decline in new cases for several days. Take Hangzhou as an example, it has been in single digits these days, and I believe it will soon return to zero.

On the other hand, the statistical caliber of new cases in Hubei province, especially in Wuhan, has also been adjusted, so the problems should be obvious. Excluding the cases that were not counted in the past, the actual number of new cases is also declining.

Moreover, "advanced" hospitals all over the country have gone to Wuhan, which is the most elite medical force in the country, and it is very rare to concentrate in one place.

In addition, we have academicians such as Zhong Nanshan and Li Lanjuan who have been fighting in the front line. It is believed that the epidemic will be controlled in the near future. By then, the conditions for full resumption of work will be met.

Regarding the time of returning to work, I think the probability is relatively high from late February to early March. Because if we drag on, the economy of the whole country will be seriously affected, and many enterprises will not survive.

As for many enterprises mentioned, they are not allowed to resume work at present. It's not that companies themselves don't want to return to work. There are two main factors:

First, there is no sign of a turning point in the local epidemic, and the local government does not agree to resume work. At present, many cities require enterprises to declare and approve in advance. Without the government's approval, enterprises naturally cannot return to work.

Second, because of the characteristics of the industry, some business owners are worried about the risk of the spread of the epidemic after employees return to work, and would rather postpone it. This possibility is also there. For example, Xu Jiayin of Evergrande Group has repeatedly postponed the resumption of work, and the sales department and real estate projects should not be earlier than February 20th.

I don't know if you have noticed the news, but some enterprises have started to lay off employees recently.

For example, a media company, some hotel industries and so on.

You know, it's only mid-February, and if the country can fully resume work after a delay of more than a month, I'm afraid a considerable number of enterprises will close down.

This situation is not what the country wants to see, nor is it what business owners want to see.

Among these enterprises, the service industry is the first to bear the brunt, such as catering, entertainment, hotels, tourism, etc., and then real estate, construction and other industries will be greatly affected.

These industries have a large number of employees and cover a wide range of people. If the service industry collapses, employees will inevitably face unemployment, which is disastrous for the whole society.

So my point is that the state will not let enterprises return to work so late. Although the epidemic is terrible, the new government and people of Qi still have the ability to control it.

Many people say that the epidemic is so fierce that I can't go back to work. Should I tighten my belt to live?

I want to say that if you do what you can, you won't have much savings and you won't have enough surplus grain. Naturally, you should save a little. If you stay at home, you will not spend more money. Just reduce online shopping.

If you have a good economic foundation, there is no need to be so anxious. After all, the epidemic is only a short-term impact.

But I'm more like saying that at the moment of the outbreak, you need to think more about how to open up sources rather than cut costs.

What if the company can't pay your salary next month? How to repay the mortgage? Unfortunately, the company fired you again. What should you do at home in the face of unemployment?

These questions are very realistic. Only "saving" thinking can't make you stable all your life. You also need some creative thinking.

For example, if the epidemic is at home, you can do sideline business and earn a little money. Maybe you can make a name for yourself and turn your sideline into your main business.

For example, at home, learn more knowledge and invest in yourself. After the epidemic has passed, you can be more competitive in the workplace and earn more money.

At least, it's better than sitting at home and waiting to die.

The above is my thinking on this topic, and I hope it will help everyone.

Regarding the prevention and control of epidemic situation, it is recommended to listen to the opinions of experts. Professor Zhong Nanshan said that the epidemic peak will come at the end of February, and the epidemic may end before the end of April.

At present, many enterprises are caught in the crisis of shutdown, production suspension and layoffs. Many netizens have received the notice of termination of the labor contract from the employer or the notice of waiting for the post.

First, how to terminate the labor contract? If the employer wants to terminate everyone's labor contract through economic layoffs, it must notify the employees 30 days in advance, which means there is at least one month's buffer period. After layoffs, the employer shall also pay the economic compensation for the termination of the labor contract according to the working hours. The standard of economic compensation is to pay one month's salary for each year of work. There is no problem for most people to support it until April.

Second, how to arrange employees to wait for jobs? When an employer arranges employees to wait for posts, it does not stop paying employees' wages. According to the Interim Provisions on Wage Payment of the former Ministry of Labor and Social Security, if an enterprise stops production due to non-labor reasons, it shall pay the wages of the workers as agreed within a wage payment period. In other words, wages will not change at least in February, and will be implemented in accordance with local regulations after more than one wage payment cycle. Some areas require to pay 70%~80% of the minimum wage, while Shanghai requires to pay living expenses not lower than the minimum wage.

The employer shall continue to pay social security for employees during the waiting period.

The turning point of the epidemic is very important, which is related to people's safety. Generally speaking, we think that the inflection point of the epidemic is that the increase of the number of hospitalized patients is less than the increase of the number of discharged patients every day, which means that the cumulative number of people still hospitalized is gradually decreasing. At present, there are about 60,000 confirmed cases, including 65,438+3,000 clinically confirmed cases. The number of new clinical diagnoses in national standards of Hubei Province. In order to facilitate patients to receive standardized treatment according to the requirements of confirmed cases and further improve the success rate of treatment.

In fact, there were only 2022 newly confirmed cases on February 1 1 day, and the number of discharged patients reached 1 184 on February 12. I believe that if this trend continues, the peak of the disease will come soon. Outside Hubei Province, 365,438+02 cases were added on February 65,438+02, and the number of confirmed cases has been decreasing for 9 consecutive days. In fact, many provinces and cities have seen an inflection point in which the number of cured people is greater than the number of newly diagnosed people. Even the only confirmed patient in Tibet was discharged from the hospital, and the number of confirmed inpatients was cleared. I believe people will feel more secure and their lives will return to normal soon.

For individuals, unless there is a mortgage or car loan to pay back, the pressure is generally not great. Moreover, if the income drops sharply due to the epidemic, you can also negotiate with banks, and banks have also introduced certain preferential policies.

At present, many small and medium-sized enterprises rely on high capital turnover rate to survive. A survey of 995 small and micro enterprises jointly conducted by Peking University and Tsinghua shows that 85% of them can only maintain cash for less than three months. 34% of enterprises can only maintain cash for one month, and 33. 1% can maintain cash for two months.

If a large number of small and micro enterprises fail, it will definitely have an impact on employment. Therefore, various localities have introduced some preferential policies to help small and medium-sized enterprises tide over the difficulties. For example, some state-owned enterprise groups will reduce the rent for small and micro enterprises that lease their properties, and the social security department will allow small and micro enterprises to delay the payment of social security fees, and can also refund social security fees to enterprises that insist on not laying off employees or reducing layoffs, even up to 50% of the six-month social security fees paid by enterprises last year (including individual employees). The taxes that enterprises need to pay can also be deferred, and some areas are also exempted from urban land use tax. The state has also released about10.7 trillion funds through financial means such as reverse repurchase, and other supported financial policies and so on. Generally speaking, except for tourism, education, catering and other industries seriously affected by the epidemic, other industries are believed to return to normal soon.

If it can return to normal in April, I believe that with the help of the national assistance policy, many enterprises can persist.

If the project starts in April, how many people can withstand the economic pressure?

Most people can't carry it!

Why do you say that?

According to the survey report on the prospect of providing for the aged in China in 20 18, the average monthly savings of young people aged 18-34 is 1339 yuan. And for most families, there are loan pressures.

Therefore, if they don't have enough income, it is difficult for them to make ends meet.

The impact of the current epidemic is very serious. If the start date is postponed to April, most enterprises will go bankrupt, close down and lay off employees! That is to say, in the short term, there is actually no risk for everyone, because they are now in the state of paying wages at home, but in the long run, if the enterprise goes bankrupt, employees will lose their income, and it will be difficult to find a job at this time.

Therefore, if construction starts in April, enterprises close down and layoffs begin, many people will not only be unable to repay their loans, but also face the pressure of living expenses.

At present, the supply situation is still good, because the state makes overall plans for safety and gives support. However, if construction starts in April, a large number of materials, daily necessities and food can't keep up, and there will be some confusion, which will lead to unreasonable price increases.

So no matter from which point of view, there will be no construction in April. And many enterprises have resumed work in February 10 and February 17.

Then, on the one hand, the epidemic prevention and control, on the other hand, the needs of life, only good protection, in order to win this war.

Because economy and life are very important!

For me, there is basically no pressure. I set up a farmhouse restaurant at home. Annual rent 1500, others are built by ourselves. Although I prepared a lot of goods at the end of the year and refused to open, I ate my own new year's goods in the countryside. I didn't invite workers. My parents helped me when I was busy, and I didn't have a mortgage or car loan. How much do I have to spend? I don't like doing things with 100. Anyway, there is no business and income now, but all shops with low food and drink expenses can supply it for half a year. When I give myself a holiday, I have nothing to drink and sing. My farmhouse has ktv, watching movies (there is a projection in the farmhouse hall, and I don't go out) and accompanying my two twin daughters (the amusement park I built doesn't go out).

A few years ago, many people said that these post-90s young people were ahead of their consumption concept, with a per capita debt of 1.25 million. Although I don't know whether it's true or not, as a member of the post-90s generation, I'm really heavily in debt, which exceeds the average line of 1.25 million.

Great changes have taken place in my life because of heavy debts. Not only do I face the phone calls from financial institutions every day, but I also bear great pressure of life and dare not relax for a moment.

I believe many people are also facing debts. Some of them owe more than me, and hundreds of millions of people are here. Everyone is suffering, everyone is suffering, everyone wants to get out of trouble and go ashore as soon as possible, just want to live a quiet life, but it is too difficult for us who are heavily in debt!

This year, the epidemic broke out suddenly and the audience had a wide influence. Not only the city, the village and the road are closed, but also people are required to be isolated, not to gather together and wear masks before going out.

Moreover, the epidemic was suddenly made public by ZF, and the time required for isolation was about 10 days before the Spring Festival. Many business owners and individuals are not prepared psychologically, so they are disturbed by this virus epidemic.

As we all know, many large, medium and small enterprises in China are not happy. Many enterprises have borrowed money from financial institutions, and they bear high rents and interest every day. Personally, many of us owe money to financial institutions such as credit cards and online loans. Now affected by the epidemic, everyone has no source of funds, just like the lack of blood supply to human organs, which is bound to have a great impact in the short term. In the next six months, some enterprises will go bankrupt due to financial pressure, some individuals will lose their personal credit due to absenteeism and salary income, and the bad debt rate of financial institutions will also rise, which is inevitable.

But don't panic, because the epidemic is national and everyone has a certain degree of influence. Only by cooperating with the arrangement of ZF organization to do isolation protection, I believe we can get through this difficulty before long! [Like] [Like] [Like]

Judging from the current situation, the epidemic prevention and control is in a critical period and will continue for some time, but many people may not survive. After all, it can last for a month or two, and most businesses may not last until April. A few days ago, it was reported that 96 housing enterprises went bankrupt on April1day. Although housing enterprises are struggling to survive because of the cooling of the property market, this incident has also given them great pressure and accelerated the rapid reshuffle process of housing enterprises. In fact, shops along the street are closed now, not only because of the influence of merchants, but also because of the impact of the incident on all aspects and the economy.

A friend of mine runs a grocery store. His shop has been closed for more than a month since the outbreak of the epidemic. He rented a small supermarket of more than 300 square meters, and the store rented hundreds of thousands every year. But according to the present situation, he loses a lot by closing the store every day. In addition, the backlog of goods is too much, which also makes him very upset. If the construction is delayed until April, he will also lose a sum of money, at least not this year.

1, many enterprises barely last three months.

You know, enterprises and individuals are different. Although the incident is still happening, if an individual has no income for three months, the pressure of various mortgages will appear. If you eat white rice instead of instant noodles, the bank can extend the loan period for you, but the enterprise may not last that long, because many small companies not only need labor costs, but also spend money without income. Many bosses are also worried. Once they stop working for too long, they will face the biggest blow.

In order to retain employees, these enterprises pay wages on time every month. In order not to face a greater crisis, they also need to pay various venue rents. Once they can't survive, they will take risks to start work, and those who can't start work will have to borrow money. Fortunately, the policy has also increased support for small and micro enterprises. It is ok to support them, but it is difficult to make big money this year.

2. The impact after the epidemic still exists.

If we say that during the epidemic period, many people will be affected if they can't do anything, most people's income will be reduced, and even some people can't afford loans without income. But after the epidemic, the impact still exists. Some catering, tourism, entertainment and other projects with concentrated traffic will take a long time to recover. Basically, it's good to break even after the epidemic this year.

At this time, it is suggested to try to increase revenue and reduce expenditure and save money. After all, this kind of incident is something that everyone needs to face. In that case, let's wait. I believe that in the short term, the incident will gradually start to improve, and it is not necessary to start work until April.

So if the project starts in April, in fact, most enterprises can't bear the economic pressure, many people are also facing various loan problems, and enterprises will also lose a lot. However, it is unlikely to start in April, so we are still waiting for news, and I believe it will gradually improve.

1. We just started a small company. At present, the four of us are at the end of our rope and can't support it. Now all the money is taken out to invest in the company to start a business!

2. If the project really starts in April, it is estimated that it is really forced to borrow money. Loans and banks may not open! I'm talking about online lending!

3. it's too difficult! ! !

Seeing this question reminds me of my mother. As long as I can remember, my mother often recited this passage about her learning Chinese, so this passage was printed in my heart; Seeing this question, I seem to hear my mother reciting this Chinese voice again: "If you have money, you often think about having no money. If you have no money, don't think about having money." There is an arsenal in the northeast. There is a worker named Zhou Zhenguo. He saves half of his monthly salary. Later, when the war broke out in the northeast, the factory stopped working and many workers had no food. Zhou Zhenguo can still live a normal life. "

No one is an exception. If the epidemic continues to spread and construction starts in April, no one can stand such a heavy blow to all people who are closed at home, especially rural people, which will make people worry and even bring the whole family to the brink of collapse.