Frozen meat storage auction rate is 99%! Why does the country keep collecting? What signal is released behind it?

The pig price has been rising for 8 consecutive days, and it has entered an adjustment state in these two days. Nationally, the rising areas have decreased and most areas have declined.

Pig farmers are worried again, and the price of pigs has risen to the top? Let's take a look at the pig prices around today:

Judging from a series of market reactions, the rise in pig prices has not yet come to an end, and even pig farmers have high expectations for the market outlook.

As we all know, the price of live pigs has been in a low state since this year, especially in the first quarter, pig farmers have been in deep losses. In order to stimulate the pig price to rise again, the country has been purchasing and storing frozen meat, but the purchasing and storing situation is not ideal, especially in recent years, the auction rate of purchasing and storing is high, and the auction rate of purchasing and storing on May 20 exceeded 99%. Apart from some objective factors, the reason why the auction rate is so high is because the market expects that the pig price will be better in the future!

Then someone asked, since they have all been auctioned, purchasing and storage is equivalent to confiscation, why should the country continue to purchase and storage? If you don't accept frozen meat, will it boost the price of pigs?

This is going to talk about a fundamental factor-the ratio of pig to grain!

What is the ratio of pig to grain? To put it bluntly, it is the ratio of the price of live pigs to the price of corn (because corn is the main component of pig feed).

According to the relevant regulations of our country, the ratio of pig price to corn price is set at 6: 1 as the break-even point, that is, if 6 kg of corn can be exchanged for 1 kg of pork, it is just the break-even point for raising pigs!

So why did you make a profit when the pig price was in 6 yuan a few years ago? Why can't it work these years? This is about the price of corn.

The price of raw corn is less than 1 yuan/kg! Judging from 20 17, the highest price of corn in that year appeared in September, which was 1700 yuan/ton, that is to say, the price of a catty of corn was less than 90 cents. If the break-even point of the pig-grain ratio is calculated by 6: 1, that is to say, the pig price in 0.9 yuan is 6=5.4 yuan, then the break-even point is achieved, and the pig price in 6 yuan is profitable that year.

On the other hand, the average price of corn in China today this year is 2862 yuan/ton, which means that the price of a kilo of corn is 1.4 yuan (the price of corn is higher than that in 0.5 yuan five years ago), and now the pig price has to reach 1.46=8.4 yuan to break even.

Let's take a look at the price of live pigs today. According to the monitoring of a large number of data of live pigs, the average price of live pigs outside China today is 15.66 yuan/kg, that is, 7.8 yuan/kg, which is far from the breakeven line of 8.4 Jinyuan 0.6 yuan.

To put it bluntly, it is because the current grain price (corn price) is much higher, which leads to high breeding costs. Therefore, even if the pig price rises to 8 yuan/Jin, it has been felt that the pig price is much higher than in previous years, but it is still unprofitable for farmers!

The main basis for the state to store and store frozen meat is the ratio of pig to grain. Today, the ratio of pig to grain is 5.47: 1, less than 6: 1, which is also the fundamental reason why the country continues to store and store frozen meat! It can be inferred that even if the auction rate is high, the state may continue to purchase and store, because the core reason for the state to purchase and store is one: to stimulate the market, release signals, boost confidence, and then stimulate the pig price to rise until the pig-grain ratio returns to 6: 1 or above!

With this fundamental logic, the next pig price trend can be well known-continue to rise! But the sustained rise mentioned here is a general trend, which can be basically determined.

However, it does not rule out the occasional shock adjustment, because historical experience also shows that even if the pig price has been rising in the rising cycle, it will basically rise for a period of time and then fluctuate and even fall back for a few days. These are normal phenomena, don't worry too much!

During this period, farmers should seize the opportunity to slaughter in time at the rising stage of pig prices and strive for maximum benefits!