Look at the latest slogan.

# Shenzhen Longhua Mansion Owners collectively petitioned to return a house #

# Golden September, Silver and Ten Seasons of Exploration #

The profit-seeking atmosphere of China property market and the human nature under interests are the most typical and vivid models. Looking at the whole country, Shenzhen dares to say that no city can go ahead.

As the most mature special economic zone and demonstration city in China, Shenzhen has not only become a well-deserved weather vane in South China in the economic field, but also has a leading effect in the property market and housing prices, and even marketization, financialization and capitalization.

Therefore, Shenzhen, long known as the "first city of real estate speculation" in China, is the most incisive representative of human nature in China property market. None of them.

Come out and hang out, you have to pay it back sooner or later. Heaven has reincarnation. Who will heaven spare?

In any era, there are ebbs and flows, but there will always be losers who are stuck in the low tide season.

In 202 1 year, the property market in China was not very good. Of course, this is good or bad, which is relative to real estate speculators and arbitrage groups.

Finally arrived at the annual golden nine silver ten. I didn't expect the hot market to come, and there were many magical things:

The second round of two centralized land auctions in China was completely indifferent;

Many cities have issued "price limit orders", and the policies have promoted the property market obviously, including many provincial-level cities with high priority;

……

Well, before the peak season began, I poured a pot of cold water in advance.

I wonder if any of you who read this article have been to the local sales department during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.

202 1, when the China property market opened, the most magical thing was staged in Shenzhen:

All the owners of Shenzhen Longhua First Mansion collectively petitioned to return a house! The total price is above150,000!

In this article, I want to talk to my friends about the magical event of "collective check-out of luxury houses" in Shenzhen and the humanity behind it.

On September 18, a document entitled "Longhua Jinmaofu Collective Check-out Petition" was circulated in the WeChat group and friends circle in Shenzhen.

The whole petition is nearly 4000 words, listing several reasons and detailing the factual basis for the owner to return a house.

The owner listed several major "crimes" of the developer:

I don't know whether it is to make up the numbers or to highlight the seriousness of the situation. According to the screenshot circulated on the Internet, the owner added the property problem at the end:

The residential corridor is not cleaned once a week.

I don't know how friends who eat melons feel when they see this scene. Anyway, I personally think it's amazing.

The lowest total price is 6.5438+0.5 million, with a down payment of 5 million. What is the standard of 5 million? The absolute middle class is upward, and the top is not capped. I dare not say that it is a dragon and phoenix among people, but also an outstanding elite level.

How many fuel-efficient lamps can I buy when I buy a mansion in Shenzhen? Is that what happened?

The 4000-word essay is well-founded, well-organized and well-organized in language, but why does it all smell like a philistine?

It has been 202 1 year, and the construction of a legal society has been put in place. If we don't look at the form of expression, is there a smell similar to the frequent protests of the sales department because of the fluctuation of housing prices in previous years?

Reasoning, giving reasons, finding problems and making demands are much more civilized, but speculation is not allowed and the essence of expected disappearance cannot be concealed.

In a word, a friend in the real estate circle broke the news: "But those who have room for arbitrage in housing prices and expect price increases, even if they are only a few hundred yuan, can't be so United and check out collectively. Who says rich people pay attention to face and decency? The current interests are exposed ~ "

That's it. There's nothing worth repeating and discussing. Understanding causality is the key.

In fact, the most crucial phenomenon of collective check-out of luxury houses in Shenzhen is the guiding price policy of second-hand houses.

Undoubtedly, in 20021year, the most lethal and powerful means to regulate the property market in China was the "second-hand housing guide price" officially implemented on February 8th.

In the past six months, the guided price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has become a new killer of property market regulation. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Sanya are invincible wherever they go.

It's really hard to teach the real estate speculators in Shenzhen a lesson, from the original disapproval, cynicism, and even positive efforts:

After more than half a year's time, reality and market, the participants in Shenzhen property market finally realized their strength.

Unprecedented expected elimination and liquidity control, real estate speculators, overreached.

Second-hand housing guide price, the most powerful thing is not to clearly price the houses in the second-hand housing market, but to have two key points of force:

First, it directly affects bank evaluation and loans;

The other is the deep blow and elimination of market expectations and speculation.

Jinmaofu is a new housing project, and there is basically no problem in combining bank loans with regulatory rules. However, owners, including prospective owners, have no expectations for future housing prices.

That's the point.

To tell the truth, it is impossible to say that this subdivided and graded luxury house has a total price of150,000, which is really purchased from the perspective of just needing to live.

The worst is the improved house purchase, the vast majority of which are groups that invest in speculative real estate speculation, with demand in their mouths and business in their hearts.

When my business, business logic and return expectation are gone, I can only recover the loss from the demand-oriented transformation in my mouth.

This is the true essence of human nature's pursuit of profit. Looking at it from another angle, if the expectations and emotions of the Shenzhen property market are still restless, will there be such a thing as "picking faults with luxury houses and checking out collectively"?

To put it bluntly, as long as the market is expected to exist and the property market is hot, as long as the surface of the house can be seen in the past, no one will come out to make trouble, but none. I have done many projects, and this conclusion is definitely practical experience.

It has nothing to do with the quality of the house. It is the same from just needing low-priced houses (worrying quality) to high-end luxury houses.

However, as long as there is a price comparison, for example, a project is developed in several phases, the price of the products in the latter phases is lower than that in the first phase, which is self-evident. As long as there is no obvious price increase, the sales department may be smashed and developers may be threatened by criticism.

Even if the quality of the house can't be picked out, even the high-quality construction projects certified by the Luban Prize can't escape this rule.

Give this example, just to show that China really doesn't buy a house to live in, it's all business ~

To tell the truth, there is no commodity or asset in China that can be compared with houses in terms of business and making money.

On psychological endurance, maturity of risk cognition and decent investment, the real estate speculators and speculators in China property market are really the ones with the lowest grade, the worst position and the ugliest eating.

In contrast, the friends of China stock market investors, at most, just "turn off the lights and eat noodles, feel sad secretly", which is very decent.

China's property market can be called a mirror of human nature: holding a group to raise prices, with sufficient reasons, well-founded, collective check-out, plain and clear.

All the losses are social, market and policy issues, and all the gains are their own.

This kind of eating, this kind of person's expression, can't afford to lose but want to earn more. How can there be such a good thing in the world?

Quick success and instant benefit, impetuous philistine, but that's all, right?

In fact, 202 1 Golden September and Silver 10 officially kicked off from the Mid-Autumn Festival, but according to the real first-line situation I learned in the industry, there is no good news and optimism at all, and it is not cold, but it has nothing to do with the "peak season".

There is an obvious feature, that is, holding money and watching, tangled contradictions and becoming the mainstream.

The grand occasion is no longer, expectations are lowered, and the heat is cooling down ... In the face of the property market under the new policy and rules environment, there is an obvious collective retreat of group buying houses.

Take Shenzhen as an example. Under the price limit rule, the price of new houses and the guiding price of second-hand houses are basically the same. The best case is slightly higher. For example, the guide price is 50,000, so the maximum number of new houses in the same area is 52,000-52,000.

This kind of environment simply strangles speculative real estate speculators and funds, and repeatedly rubs them face down on the concrete floor.

The collective check-out of Jinmaofu is a typical situation that is expected to disappear. Let me analyze it for you:

The price of new houses is 65,438+100000-165,438+100000, and the average house price in Longhua area is 60,000-70,000, which is before the guiding price of second-hand houses;

The guiding price of second-hand housing was introduced, and the housing price in Longhua area was generally 30% off, with an average price of 50,000-60,000. However, the price of new houses in Jinmaofu has been put on record and sold normally.

This makes people who snapped up in the high temperature stage of rapid housing price rise in Shenzhen unbearable. According to the guiding price style and market environment, if Jinmaofu enters the second-hand market, the reasonable price ceiling will hardly exceed 80,000. Even if the value can be preserved at 654.38+ 10,000, the mortgage interest during the five-year trading restriction period will be a real loss. ...

The total price150,000 is no joke. /kloc-what is the annual interest rate of 0/0 million loan for five years? You can know for yourself.

800 thousand a year, 4 million in five years ...

Who can guarantee the "official pricing" trend of the guiding price of second-hand houses after five-year trading restrictions?

Of course, no one can say what will happen in five years. According to the present situation, you can't run away from the high position, so it doesn't matter what your face is, what matters is whether you can run or not.

The influence of regulatory policies on China property market speculation expectation and real estate speculation sentiment has been verified in Shenzhen.

Of course, Shenzhen Longhua Jinmao House is the first representative of this round of regulation, but it will certainly not be the last one.

China's property market, north and south, has just begun to test the market and human nature under the new regulatory policies and rules, while the power of China's property market value subversion wave has just emerged.

Human nature, to put it bluntly, is not complicated, and the interests are related, but that's all.

Where are so many real estate problems and problems? Real estate is a traditional industry with little technical content. What kind of flowers can it play without assets and financial attributes?

In the final analysis, it is the money-making effect, full of uncertainty and uncertainty, which further leads to the emotional swing and action swing of the market.

In the era and expectation that buying a house can preserve and increase the value, even Shenzhen, the "first city of real estate speculation", began to fail. Then, even if other cities are made of iron, how many nails can be driven?

In fact, the China property market in 20021year had frequent precooling and magical performance, which actually revealed the reality of deleveraging and defoaming of China's real estate economy.

Two questions:

Do you want to buy a house?

Are there any valuable opportunities and spaces in the future house?

In fact, the significance of the latter question is not great, the policy direction remains unchanged, and there is no suspense in speculation with luck.

However, from the perspective of just-needed and long-term value investment, it is still an unavoidable choice for Chinese and China's economic environment.

Squeezing bubbles is actually a good thing. It can be said that there is a relatively rational and standardized environment to re-examine and think about your real needs, whether it is just needed or long-term investment.

But for speculative real estate speculators and arbitrage groups, it is necessary to pay back sooner or later. When the tide finally recedes, victims and losers are always needed to mark the ebb.

If you can't afford to lose money, you still want to make more money. Such an enterprise cannot exist.

Even if you write a small composition and cry, adults always have to pay for their ambitions and desires.

This expression of human nature may be an inevitable appetizer before the property market in China returns to normal.

According to the latest regulations of the relevant state departments, the contents and opinions in this article are for reference only, and do not constitute any clear suggestions on house purchase and investment. Enter the market at your own risk. )

The above text comes from @ Panda Beibei Cute.