How accurate is the weather forecast?

The accuracy of weather forecast is probably above 80%

Weather forecast: prepare first, then be safe.

The weather forecast is only a probability forecast. Taking precipitation as an example, it is observed that the invasion of cold air is about to bring a rainstorm. This precipitation process can be accurately predicted, but it can only provide the probability of rainfall location. Maybe Beijing is below 80% and Tianjin is below 50%. Yang Guiming said: "At present, the accuracy rate of regional forecast of light rain and precipitation is around 50%, with the highest reaching 80% and the lowest only over 30%. The accuracy of heavy rainfall is only about 30%. However, compared with the accuracy of only 10% in the last century, great progress has been made. "

"The imagination of nature is beyond human control, and human beings can only explore and use it." Yang Guiming told reporters, "Only by understanding the weather forecast can we use it correctly. Just like earthquake warning, even if it is not accurate, you should believe it and take preventive measures. So is the weather forecast. Only when you are prepared can you be safe. "

Expert analysis: the accuracy is always greatly improved.

By 20 10, China will initially establish a comprehensive meteorological observation system, basically form a platform for sharing meteorological information between the industry and the whole society, and greatly improve the accuracy of weather forecasting.

Academician Qin Dahe, director of China Meteorological Bureau, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, China will also strengthen the construction of emergency systems and equipment such as comprehensive atmospheric detection, wireless information transmission, emergency meteorological information processing platform and video surveillance; For the public meteorological forecast with a forecast period of 7 days, the quality of meteorological forecast such as typhoon and rainstorm will be improved by 5% to 10%, the deviation of typhoon track forecast in 24 hours will be within 120km, the annual cold and warm climate forecast level of drought and flood will be improved by 5%, the accuracy of grain yield forecast will reach over 95%, and the atmospheric composition, lightning disaster and space weather forecast and early warning will be issued. Establish a meteorological emergency response system for major disasters, and issue early warnings of local sudden disasters such as thunderstorms, strong winds, flash floods and mudslides more than half an hour in advance. The public coverage of meteorological forecasts and warnings is 95%.

Whether it is accurate or not, let's see.

In fact, there is a psychological reason why people have a bad impression on the weather forecast: because of the characteristics of thinking, people always firmly remember the process that brings them unpleasant experiences and ignore the process that brings them pleasure, which is the selectivity of memory.