The pig price has returned to the second warning, and the risk of secondary fattening has increased sharply. Should the pig price bottom out again?

After a month, the National Development and Reform Commission released the latest news. During the week from February 27th to March 3rd, the domestic pig-grain ratio rose to 5.43: 1, and briefly dropped to 4.98: 1 compared with the beginning of February. The domestic pig-grain ratio hovered between 5: 1-6: 1 for three consecutive weeks.

The return of pig prices to the second-level warning also means that the price of live pigs has moved up. Judging from the market feedback, the ratio of pig to grain has rebounded!

On the one hand, the domestic feed raw material prices fluctuated downward, the corn market was concentrated in the wet grain market, and the spot corn prices fluctuated downward. At present, the listing price of mainstream enterprises in Northeast China is 1.28~ 1.36 yuan/kg, while the listing price of mainstream deep processing enterprises in North China and Huanghuai area is about 1.4~ 1.46 yuan/kg! The price of feed raw materials fell, and the cost of breeding fluctuated downward;

On the other hand, the price of live pigs is strong. According to market feedback, on February 4th, the price of live pigs bottomed out and rebounded to 13.87 yuan/kg, and the market began to rise. At the beginning of March, the average price of live pigs rose to 15.9 yuan/kg, but recently the price dropped slightly. On March 7th, the average price of live pigs hovered around 15.65438+.

Due to the weakening of the corn market, the price of live pigs has risen recently, the ratio of pig to grain has gradually picked up, and the pressure of loss at the breeding end has gradually weakened. At present, the loss of fattening pigs in China is about 1.25 yuan, and the loss of slaughter pigs under partial autotrophic mode has been reduced to less than 70 yuan/ton. In some producing areas, farmers have gradually entered the stage of "turning losses into profits"!

However, the ratio of pig to grain has rebounded, but farmers are still sad. So, what has happened to the market? The most worrying thing for farmers is coming!

According to the feedback from the live pig market, the pig price has been adjusted rapidly recently. Due to the reluctant operation of pig breeding, the downstream demand support is insufficient. But some slaughterhouses still have the operation of storing frozen meat. Therefore, the staged pig price is mainly sideways!

However, this time, the increase in the pig-to-food ratio is more dependent on emotional support. Due to the favorable storage and storage, farmers are reluctant to sell, while the frozen products storage and secondary fattening in slaughterhouses have temporarily improved the staged supply and demand pattern. The second fattening, as speculation, will further aggravate the shock of pig farms. Therefore, in March, with the fading of many favorable conditions in the short term, the pig market will return to the fundamentals of purchase and sale, and farmers are most worried!

First, I am worried that consumer demand will rebound less than expected! At present, the domestic consumer market is still in the off-season. Although students return to school and all walks of life recover, the demand for collectivization is relatively stable. However, as the weather turns hot, consumers' enthusiasm for meat products declines, and the terminal wholesale market is under greater pressure. As the pig market returns to the fundamentals of purchase and sale, farmers are worried about pork consumption expectations!

The second is to worry about the pressure of "strong supply and weak demand" in the market! Due to the lack of opportunities to boost the staged consumer market, there is no holiday promotion in the short term, the weather is getting warmer and the consumption support is insufficient.

In terms of the pig market, the pig slaughtering plan increased month on month, and an institutional survey showed that the sample size of pig enterprises and pig slaughtering plans increased by 2.39% month on month in March! According to the change of sow stock, in March, the scale of pig slaughter showed an upward trend month by month!

Superimposed, the second fattening loss was serious last year. In 2023, there were many empty bars for secondary fattening in many places at the beginning of the year. Due to the downward trend of pig price, the secondary fattening bar rose. Due to the warning from the past, the hot weather and insufficient consumer support, the market acceptance of large-weight pigs has gradually deteriorated, and the second fattening will be released ahead of schedule. In the past, the weight gain cycle would reach 2-3 months. At this stage, some secondary fattening bars will be low.

Therefore, the fluctuation of domestic pig prices will remain within a narrow range in the short term. However, with the gradual release of the market pressure of strong supply and weak demand, farmers are worried that pig prices will bottom out again under the disturbance of the secondary fattening market!

The pig price has returned to the second warning, but the farmers are very sad. The most worrying thing is that they are coming! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!