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The price of natural gas is soaring. Will the National Development and Reform Commission take action?

In recent days, the natural gas and liquefied natural gas markets have been quite active. On the one hand, the supply of natural gas is in short supply, and many places begin to limit gas. Shijiazhuang has launched an emergency plan for natural gas supply; On the other hand, due to the shortage of gas sources, LNG prices began to rise sharply and kept hitting new highs.

In view of the current market situation, the National Development and Reform Commission will hold an early warning meeting on LNG price today to ensure that the LNG market price is basically stable during the peak winter.

The industry believes that with the promotion of "coal to gas" and the increase of clean energy use, natural gas consumption will continue to increase in the future, and LNG prices are expected to enter a rising cycle.

Many places in Hebei Province are in urgent need of supply.

Due to the shortage of natural gas, many places in Hebei Province are in a state of emergency.

The reporter learned that recently, the Emergency Management Office of Shijiazhuang Municipal People's Government issued the Notice on Launching the Emergency Plan for Natural Gas Supply, saying that since the beginning of this year, with the strong promotion of air pollution prevention and control actions and clean energy substitution work such as "changing coal to gas" in our city, the demand for natural gas in our city has increased rapidly. Recently, due to the reduction of natural gas supply by upstream PetroChina, the supply of natural gas in our city has decreased, resulting in a shortage of natural gas sources in the natural gas market. According to the principle of "putting people first and giving priority to people's livelihood",

According to the Notice, Xinao Gas is responsible for stopping all industrial enterprises from producing gas; City Management Committee is responsible for stopping all social vehicle refueling services and restricting bus and taxi refueling services during off-peak hours; Financial operation of gas heating enterprises at low temperature.

Some citizens in Shijiazhuang have also received short messages informing them that they have received urgent notices from the municipal government and Xinao Gas Company that the city's natural gas is in an emergency and the natural gas consumption index of the heating company will be lowered in time. As a result, heating will be forced to operate at low temperature, and relevant responsible departments are actively coordinating.

In fact, before this, the Development and Reform Commission of Hebei Province has started the province's natural gas demand side management mechanism, and entered the orange warning of natural gas supply in the province from 0: 00 on1October 28th. This means that the natural gas supply in Hebei Province has been in a state of serious tension. The orange warning is second only to the red warning, indicating that the gap between supply and demand in the province is 10% to 20%.

According to the reporter's understanding, since September, the gas volume of terminal pipelines in North China and East China has been tightened, and PetroChina has taken gas restriction measures, involving Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other regions.

In addition to gas restriction, due to the shortage of natural gas, Beijing, Shanxi, Jiangxi and other places have successively raised the prices of non-resident natural gas gates by about 10%.

According to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, from June 5,438+10 to June 5,438+10, the natural gas consumption was186.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. In the same period, the natural gas output was 1, 2 1 .200 million cubic meters, up1,654,38+0.2% year-on-year; Natural gas imports reached 72.2 billion cubic meters, up by 27.5%.

Some analysts told reporters that since the beginning of this year, affected by factors such as increased prevention and control of air pollution in the north and clean heating, natural gas consumption has obviously picked up, and the growth rate has been faster since winter.

Development and Reform Commission or intervention

Against the background of natural gas shortage, the price of liquefied natural gas has soared since September. After entering the heating season, the price is getting higher every day.

65438+February 1, the listing price of LNG reached a record high of 9400 yuan/ton, and the average price of LNG in various places also exceeded 7000 yuan/ton.

The reporter learned that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the "Notice on Deploying and Holding a Reminder Meeting on LNG Price Regulations and Policies". In order to regulate the abnormal fluctuation of LNG price and ensure that the LNG market price is basically stable during the peak winter, NDRC will uniformly deploy the relevant provincial and municipal price authorities on February 4, 65438, and immediately hold a reminder meeting on LNG price regulations and policies to remind and warn LNG production and circulation enterprises and relevant social organizations within their jurisdiction to strengthen price self-discipline and standardize price behavior.

In the notice, NDRC also stressed that it is not allowed to fabricate and spread price increase information, maliciously hoard prices, drive up prices, collude with each other and manipulate market prices; Do not abuse the dominant market position, reach a monopoly agreement, and do not use others to commit price violations and price monopoly, otherwise the competent price department will severely investigate and deal with them according to the relevant provisions of the Price Law and the Anti-Monopoly Law.

The price of liquefied natural gas has been rising, which is caused by the shortage of natural gas.

"The main reason for the soaring price of LNG is the tight consumption and strong demand of natural gas." Liu Guangbin, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information, told the Securities Daily reporter that there are also some factors of rising cost.

"It is difficult for NDRC to directly intervene in prices. After all, LNG is a market-oriented product. " He also said.

Zhao Chen, an analyst in orient securities, believes that the fundamental reason is the rapid growth of natural gas brought by "changing coal to gas", especially the growth rate of LNG imports is much higher than that of domestic consumption.

He also pointed out that1480,000-ton industrial coal-fired boilers still need to be rebuilt, which is 3.6 times that of this year. There are still 27 million households in North China that have not been rebuilt, nine times as many as this year. According to the neutral hypothesis, this part of the transformation will be completed in the next five years. This will bring an annual total demand increase of11800 million cubic meters, which will drive the overall consumption growth rate of natural gas in North China to exceed 15% in the future. In the context of tight domestic supply in the future, demand is not a problem, and even in the long run, LNG prices are expected to enter a rising cycle.