World War I was no accident: Britain and Germany were already at loggerheads.

The inevitable conflicts and even wars between emerging powers and established hegemonic countries are called "Thucydides Trap", and the confrontation between Germany and Britain in World War I is regarded as one of the most classic cases. Today, exploring the causes of the conflict between Germany and Britain is of great warning significance for the countries concerned to avoid repeating the historical mistakes, establish a new type of relationship between major powers and safeguard world peace and security.

Structural contradictions are difficult to reconcile.

Up to now, there are only two hegemonic countries that really have the ability to dominate the world, namely modern Britain and contemporary America. In a sense, they were roughly equivalent to the Roman Empire and ruled Europe, West Asia, North Africa and the Mediterranean for three or four centuries in ancient times. These three hegemonic countries start their businesses by "swords and shadows", and "blood and fire" are indispensable for their success. In the face of a rising country, its instinctive reaction naturally shows that it is restrained by its super strength. This is the inherent and unchangeable nature of hegemonic countries.

The British Empire is the largest empire in the modern history of the world, dominating the world for a century. 1900, the British empire owned 3 108 million square kilometers of land, accounting for a quarter of the world's population; It has the most powerful navy, the largest merchant fleet and the world financial center. 19 At the end of the 20th century, with the rise of the United States, Germany and Japan, Britain's strength declined relatively, and it faced the choice of how to get along with the rising countries. Although Britain is still the world's largest power, it has not completely suppressed the strength of other countries, so it adopted the strategy of differential treatment, reconciled with the United States, formed an alliance with Japan, and concentrated its efforts on dealing with Germany. In Britain's view, Germany has the strength and intention to challenge, and it is really worrying that it is close at hand.

187 1 After the victory of the Franco-Prussian War in and the reunification of Germany, Germany developed rapidly. By the beginning of the 20th century, it had become a big capitalist country with a large population, high cultural quality, strong military strength and strong economic strength. It has the strongest army in Europe, the second largest navy and the second largest merchant fleet in the world after Britain. Its industrial strength surpasses that of Britain, ranking second in the world (after the United States).

Germany, with such great strength, abandoned Bismarck's "continental policy" based on the European continent and began to implement the "world policy" after Kaiser Wilhelm II appointed Tilpitz as Minister of the Navy and Piloff as Foreign Minister in 1897. Its essence is to expand the navy, compete for sea control, expand colonies overseas, compete for the world and establish the Great German Empire on the basis of dominating the European continent.

There is an irreconcilable structural contradiction between Germany's "world policy" and Britain's world hegemony. Germany's attempt to dominate Europe runs counter to Britain's policy of maintaining the balance of power in Europe. Historically, Britain has been working with continental European countries to contain the most powerful country in the continent, and it is inevitable that it must oppose any country that tries to dominate Europe. Germany's expansion of the navy directly threatened Britain's maritime hegemony; Germany is fighting for "territory under the sun". When the colonies were almost divided up, Germany in the later period would inevitably invade the sphere of influence of Britain with the largest number of colonies. So Britain came to the conclusion that the contradiction between Germany and Britain is deeply rooted in the relative position of the two countries, and the armed conflict between the two sides is inevitable after all, so Germany must be contained.

Maritime competition

Maritime hegemony is regarded by the British Empire as a pillar of survival, a core interest that must be fully guaranteed, and must not be challenged. 1911may, British foreign secretary gray said at the secret meeting of the British empire: "what really determines British foreign policy is the issue of maritime hegemony." Germany greatly expanded its navy. In the last few years before World War I, 60% of Germany's military budget was spent on naval construction, which directly challenged Britain's core interests and led to rapid hostility between Germany and Britain.

Building a powerful naval fleet is the core of William II's political intention. As early as 1897, he declared that "Germany's future lies at sea", and only the fleet can ensure that Germany obtains the status of a world power commensurate with its economic strength and cultural level, and can guarantee to seize overseas colonies. 1898, the german parliament passed the first naval bill, and it is planned to form two sub-fleets with eight battleships each within six years. Later, a number of additional naval bills were passed, keeping up with the pace of Britain and vigorously building battleships. 19 14 When World War I broke out, Germany owned battleships and battle cruiser 4 1, and Britain owned 69 battleships and battle cruiser. The German navy jumped from the sixth place in the world in 1898 to the second largest naval force in the world after Britain.

Germany's expansion of the navy was aimed at Britain from the beginning. 1897, the memorandum submitted by German Navy Minister Tilpitz to William II clearly regarded Britain as an imaginary enemy: "For Germany, the most dangerous enemy at present is Britain." Britain is highly vigilant about this. 1902, Selborne, the British secretary of the navy, pointed out in a cabinet document that the cruising distance of the German fleet was very short, and it was specially designed to fight against the British mainland. 1904, the British Admiralty drew up the first battle plan against Germany. 1909, a "naval panic" broke out in Britain. Worried that the German navy would catch up, it decided to increase the number of "fearless" class battleships from the original plan of 4 to 10. 1912 In March, Churchill, the British Secretary of the Navy, took a tough stance in Parliament, clearly declaring that Germany was Britain's only maritime enemy. Every time Germany builds a capital ship, Britain builds two.

German Foreign Minister K concluded after World War I: "The political activities of Britain for many years before the war convinced K that the rapid expansion of the German combat fleet was the main reason why Britain stood on the enemy's side." The so-called "naval panic" in Britain is the result of excessive panic and even deliberate exaggeration by hegemonic countries for rising countries. "Germany * * *" is useful. Fisher, Britain's first maritime minister, later admitted: "It was the Admiralty that created this panic. The fact is that Britain must exaggerate its maritime disadvantages against Germany. "

Reckless diplomacy adds fuel to the fire.

187 1 to 1890 During Bismarck's administration, Germany pursued the "continental policy" and its diplomacy was steady and pragmatic, which won Germany a comfortable international environment. 1890 After Bismarck was forced to resign in March, Germany entered the "new route" period, and then began to implement the "world policy" in 1897. It was reckless and short-sighted in diplomacy and irrational measures were repeatedly prohibited.

At the beginning, Germany was obsessed with the alliance with Britain and had unrealistic expectations, hoping that Germany and Britain would cooperate to dominate European affairs. William II said to his uncle, King Edward VII of England, "Without the approval of Britain, a mouse can't move in Europe." From 1898 to 190 1, Britain proposed to establish a regional alliance with Germany in the Far East. Germany did not understand the diplomatic tradition that Britain would never join any unrestricted military alliance, and forced Britain to establish a comprehensive alliance with the triple alliance. As a result, negotiations failed. 1902 Britain turned to establish an alliance with Japan in the Far East. 1904 and 1907 successively signed the Anglo-French agreement and the Anglo-Russian agreement, and the German-Austrian group was surrounded.

The recklessness of the Kaiser and his diplomatic think tank is typically reflected in the Kruger telegraph incident. 1895 12.29, Britain sent Jameson and led a cavalry to invade transvaal province, and suffered a fiasco. Jameson was captured and Britain was extremely embarrassed. Encouraged by German public opinion and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,1October 3,1896,65438+William II sent a telegram to President Kruger of transvaal province, congratulating him on "successfully crushing the invasion of armed bandits by relying on his own people without the help of friendly countries". In Britain's view, this is Germany's humiliation and provocation to Britain, so it is greatly annoyed.

Moroccan crises twice before World War I showed that Germany only knew how to create a crisis, but did not know how to end it. From 65438 to 0905, with the support of Britain, France tried to turn Morocco into a French protectorate. In order to thwart the plans of Britain and France, William II publicly stated in the port of Tangier in Morocco that he would safeguard Morocco's independence and interests. Germany shouted: "If the French army crosses the Moroccan border, the Germans will immediately cross the French border." But Britain immediately warned Germany not to threaten France with war, and at the same time negotiated military cooperation measures with France. Germany was not prepared for this war, so it had to soften its stance and agree to settle the dispute through an international conference. In the moroccan crises of 19 1 1, Germany had to stop because of Britain's intervention, which led to the relationship between Germany and Britain and greatly narrowed the relationship between Britain and France.

The deterioration of German-British relations is determined by the structural contradictions between the two sides, but the clumsy actions of German diplomacy undoubtedly add fuel to the fire. Carrying out the policy of "uniting Britain against Russia" ruined the relationship between Germany and Russia and pushed Russia to the side of France, the old enemy. I don't understand the British diplomatic tradition and miss the opportunity to form an alliance with Britain. When dealing with emergencies, we were emotional and bluffing, and we failed. As the friction breaks out again and again, it is getting closer and closer to the final showdown.

When the soldiers meet each other, both sides lose.

A wise man takes precautions before they happen. Hegemonic countries usually attempt to destroy rising countries when they are not strong and will not rise. The essence of British traditional European policy is to crack down on the second child. Whenever a country tries to dominate the rise of Europe, Britain takes the lead in organizing other countries to knock it down. From 1793 to 18 15, Britain organized seven anti-French alliances to destroy Napoleon's empire. By the beginning of the 20th century, it was not soft on the rising Germany.

The preemptive attempt to destroy the German navy is a reflection of this policy. 1904165438+1October 18 The British newspaper Army and Navy published an article demonstrating the feasibility of destroying the German fleet by surprise attack. In the same year, Fisher, who became the first British Minister of Maritime Affairs, also made suggestions to King George V on this issue and began to comprehensively adjust the naval deployment. The Royal Navy has nine original fleets, eight of which are distributed overseas. After the adjustment, it was streamlined into five fleets, three of which were concentrated in European waters, especially the number of "Strait Fleet" battleships deployed in local waters increased from eight to 17.

Germany must always be vigilant. At the beginning of his tenure, German Navy Minister Tirpitz proposed that if the ratio of German navy to British navy reached 2: 3 in the North Sea, the British navy could defeat the German navy, but the losses it suffered would make it unable to meet the challenges of French and Russian navies, thus losing its maritime hegemony, which would prevent Britain from launching a preemptive war against Germany. Until then, try to keep a low profile and try not to disturb Britain. William II is also highly concerned about this issue. In the letter1October 23rd 1904+ 165438, the wives of British naval personnel "publicly declared that they would declare war on everyone, because the German navy is still weak, and Britain will not take any risks to destroy it. If it is two years later, it will be too late. "

1965438+The Sarajevo incident on June 28th, 2004 provided Britain with an opportunity to defeat Germany. This time, Britain is fully prepared and never wants Germany to come back from the cliff again. Churchill, the secretary of the navy, said: "In the past three years, we have never been so well prepared." For Britain, it is better to fight early than late, and it is not good for you to drag on. Germany's industrial production capacity is stronger than that of Britain, and it will always catch up in the naval competition. Britain is eager to defeat Germany through war, while still maintaining its naval superiority. Because Germany only dares to go to war with France and Russia, but has no courage to compete with Britain, once Britain exposes its intention to go to war, Germany may stop again, so Britain deliberately hides its intention to go to war and pretends to be neutral. On July 26, two days before the war broke out, King George V of England still said during his talks with William II's brother Prince Henrich of Prussia, "Everyone will try their best to remain neutral and not get involved in the war." But on July 29th, the day after Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, Britain made it clear that if Germany and France were involved, Britain "could not stand by for a long time". At this time, Germany wanted an emergency truce between Austria and Hungary, but it was too late. On August 4, Britain declared war on Germany on the grounds that Germany destroyed Belgium's neutrality. After four years of war, the goal of defeating Germany was finally achieved.

World War I ended the dream of Germany's rise and accelerated the decline of the British Empire. The history of conflict and war between Germany and Britain is a history of mutual loss. More than a hundred years have passed, and today's world seems to have reached a historical crossroads. Remember the past and learn the future. The countries concerned should adhere to the principles of non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation, build a new type of relationship between major powers and prevent them from repeating the historical mistakes and falling into the "Thucydides Trap". This is a big problem that politicians and peace-loving people should be alert to.