Go down, give subsidies, battery, how is the motorcycle business of the giant?

Editor/Ye Lili

This article is jointly launched for 36Kr X-Connect Insight.

"* * * Why is the motorcycle gone?"

In Zhou Heng's memory, the area once full of motorcycles has now become a clearing.

The text message he received later explained the problem. Hello, a short message said, "In order to improve the service quality, mopeds in Hangzhou are all returned to the warehouse for maintenance."

But in Zhou Heng's view, it was not going back to the warehouse for maintenance, but retiring, because not only hello, but also the street rabbit and the Meituan motorcycle disappeared.

In fact, this phenomenon does not only appear in Hangzhou. Since the end of May, the number of motorcycles laid in first-and second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin has also decreased sharply.

At the beginning of 2020, the sidewalks of first-and second-tier cities were full of motorcycles, including blue and white hello, green street rabbits and yellow Meituan motorcycles.

"This change seems to have happened overnight." Zhou Heng told Wired Insight.

Where did the motorcycle go?

The answer is Quanzhou, Hefei, Yinchuan, Changsha and other second-and third-tier cities. * * * The competitive destination for enjoying motorcycles has shifted from first-and second-tier cities to the sinking market.

With the sinking, the giants began to exert their strength on motorcycle batteries.

Recently, Didi Green Orange cooperated with BYD's own brand "Fudi". In the industry's view, this is Didi's efforts to enjoy motorcycle batteries. Prior to this, Hello and Meituan had reached cooperation with domestic battery giants such as Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech on motorcycles.

* * * Although enjoying bicycles is favored by the giants, it turns out that it is a very difficult business to make a profit. And * * * enjoys the cost of motorcycles more. After retreating from first-and second-tier cities, how is their business in the sinking market? Is this still a good deal?

20 18 after a year of "rainbow wars", ofo*** enjoys riding, but its CEO Dai Wei doesn't want to give up his dream of "riding".

At that time, domestic two-wheeled electric vehicles and new energy vehicles ushered in a period of rapid development after a series of new policies were introduced. As a result, the desperate Dai Wei stared at the new track where * * * enjoyed motorcycles.

On February 9 of that year, just after obtaining Ali's first mortgage financing, ofo quickly announced that it had reached a strategic cooperation with BeeFly, a motorcycle brand enjoying * * *. At that time, in the eyes of the industry, it was Dai Wei who wanted to use all the resources of bicycles in exchange for * * * to enjoy motorcycles.

In fact, it's not only ofo that is looking for a way out, but also mobike. But when they entered the track, hello already had a certain layout.

Compared with * * * enjoying bicycles, Hello has changed from a latecomer to a pioneer on the motorcycle track. In 20 17, Hello began to put its Hello motorcycle on the market. Thanks to the riding experience, it seems to be familiar with motorcycles and soon won the market in Hefei and other cities.

After that, ofo quickly withdrew from the competition due to the break of the capital chain. Mobike was acquired by Meituan, which subsequently launched Meituan's motorcycle, and this market also ushered in the street rabbit motorcycle hatched by Didi.

The admission of the giants also attracted more players to join, such as the No.7 electric ticket, enjoy riding and GOGO motorcycle.

Although the motorcycle track was already competing with each other at that time, due to the policy of "don't encourage and don't develop", this track didn't cause much trouble and was basically in the trial operation stage.

Until April of 20 19, the Technical Specification for Safety of Electric Bicycles, which is known as the "new national standard" of the electric bicycle industry, was officially promulgated. This policy clarifies the standards of electric bicycles, and motorcycles that meet the standards will be classified as non-motor vehicles and do not need a driver's license to go on the road.

With the implementation of the policy, the motorcycle industry has officially entered a development period.

From July 2065438 to July 2009, Hellobike set up the internal electric vehicle platform division as a first-level department, which was mainly responsible for motorcycle business, and its business level was parallel to that of Hellobike. Coincidentally, in the same year, Didi announced that it would merge * * * to enjoy motorcycles and * * * to enjoy bicycles into a two-wheeled business unit.

And this industry really ignited the war, starting with the entry of the US Mission this year. "Meituan is committed to becoming a leader in this industry," Wang Xing once said in a conference call. In order to achieve this goal, Meituan took the lead in seizing the market through subsidies.

"When Meituan motorcycle was first launched, the price was very cheap, and with subsidies, it was basically equal to free riding, which was very popular for a time," a Meituan staff member told the media. This style of play by the US Mission suddenly broke the pattern of Hello preempting the market.

According to Tech Planet, Hello's share was squeezed, not only because of Meituan, but also because Didi seized a lot of market share in those months through subsidies.

First Hello took the lead, then Didi and Meituan ran to catch up, and the giants competed for this industry.

According to the data released by Ai Media Consulting, in 20 19, the number of motorcycles enjoyed by * * * in China has exceeded 100000. In the next five years, users' demand for motorcycles enjoyed by * * * will be further stimulated. It is estimated that the number of motorcycles enjoyed by * * * will reach 8 million in 2025, and the revenue scale will reach 20 billion yuan.

This kind of industry potential is a "cake" that must be won for Hello and Didi, which focus on the field of travel. For the US Mission, it will also become an important source of traffic.

"Meituan enjoys the high-frequency consumption scene of motorcycle business, which has long-term strategic significance." Wang Xing, CEO of Meituan, has publicly stated this.

When the three giants fought fiercely to win this industry, the release of the "One Helmet, One Belt" policy plunged this industry into a "cold winter". Beijing and Shanghai have made it clear that they will not develop motorcycles. At the same time, motorcycles in other first-tier cities, such as Hangzhou and Tianjin, were forced to be scrapped one after another.

Just when the outside world thought that * * * enjoyed the silence of motorcycles, the giants quietly came to "outside the Fifth Ring Road" and continued to fight for it.

"Recently, several brands of motorcycles were found on the street, including Hello, Didi and Meituan, which seemed to appear overnight." A citizen of Hefei told the media.

This phenomenon not only appears in Hefei, but also in Yinchuan, Ningxia. According to the report of Future Auto Daily, after May 1 this year, almost overnight, nearly 7,000 * * * bicycles disappeared from the streets of Yinchuan and were replaced by 40,000 brand-new * * * motorcycles.

Although it has changed from a bicycle to a motorcycle, what remains unchanged is that the motorcycle is still the familiar color: blue and white hello, Huang Meiqun, green orange.

* * * The reason why enjoying motorcycles can "sink" smoothly also benefits from the support of second-and third-tier cities. According to Ningxia Daily, in order to encourage citizens to use and park bicycles in a standardized way and improve their bicycle management ability, * * * will gradually withdraw from Yinchuan market and enjoy motorcycles instead.

Not only Hefei and Yinchuan, but also second-and third-tier cities such as Changsha in Hunan, Kunming in Yunnan and Yancheng in Jiangsu have explicitly encouraged the development of electric bicycles.

With the support of policies, the giants are gearing up to launch an impact on the sinking market.

In April this year, according to relevant media reports, Meituan placed nearly one million orders for electric vehicle companies such as Fujita and Xinri. In the same month, Cheng Wei, CEO of Didi Chuxing, announced the "0 188" strategic plan, and will develop the two-wheeled vehicle business according to the plan. According to the data of the second quarter financial report of Meituan, Meituan invested nearly 300,000 motorcycles in the market in this quarter.

In August of this year, Didi launched the green orange motorcycle. "The main market for green orange motorcycles is second-and third-tier cities." The person in charge of Green Orange Bicycle told the media that Zhang Zhidong, as the general manager of Didi Biwheeler Division, even stated: "The goal of Green Orange Motorcycle is to have a certain leading edge in the industry."

In the face of the encirclement of Meituan and Didi, Hello is also adjusting its strategy. According to Tech Planet, on the one hand, Hello merged motorcycles and bicycles, on the other hand, it launched a franchise model in September this year to increase the laying channels of motorcycles.

"The main goal this year is to develop these channels. After all, Hello is still immature in this respect. In contrast, Meituan has advantages in channel investment and operation management. " A hello insider mentioned it in an interview with Science Planet.

With the sinking of giants, it is inevitable to meet small players who have been developing in second-and third-tier cities, including Xiaomi, Guo Song, Xiaoliu and Mango. Therefore, in Changsha and other cities, the competition in the motorcycle industry has become very fierce.

According to Changsha Evening News, at the end of 20 19, there were less than 654.38+million electric vehicles in Changsha, which exceeded 200,000 in April this year and 300,000 in May, with a monthly surge of 654.38+million vehicles, and now it is close to 400,000. * * The number of electric vehicle brands has increased from 4 to 4.

In order to seize more markets, the subsidy war is once again ignited on this track.

Meituan took the lead in launching free cards for novice gift packages in some second-and third-tier cities, which were used twice a day, 30 minutes before each use and lasted for three days; Not to be outdone, Green Orange also presented car users with experience coupons at a price of 10 yuan in some cities.

In contrast, Hello's subsidy is even rougher. In August this year, Hello announced that it would invest 50 million yuan to subsidize its business in mobike, mainly in the form of riding tickets or buying cards. Hello said that through such incentives, more people will join in a more environmentally friendly way of travel.

In order to gain an advantage in the sinking market, the giants have not only made great efforts in subsidies, but also reached cooperation with domestic battery factories in order to gain an advantage in motorcycle batteries.

In June last year, Hellobike announced the establishment of a joint venture with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Ant Financial, mainly to develop motorcycle power exchange stations and provide "power exchange services" for two-wheeled motorcycles and electric vehicles nationwide. When you are ready, the problem of "mileage anxiety" of motorcycles will be greatly solved by changing electricity.

In June this year, Meituan announced a cooperation with China Tower Energy Company. According to the agreement, the two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation in motorcycle power exchange services; A month ago, Didi Chuxing announced that its Green Orange brand and State Grid Shima, a subsidiary of State Grid Electric Vehicle Company, had cooperated around two rounds of travel energy services.

For a time, the battle for the enjoyment of motorcycles by the giants burned from the sinking market to the field of motorcycle batteries. However, is enjoying motorcycles still a good business?

The sudden epidemic at the beginning of this year made two-wheeled vehicles popular.

Before the outbreak, people can consider many means of transportation, such as buses, subways, and online car rides. However, with the emergence of the epidemic, all the above means of transportation have become the "best space" for the virus to spread between people, so that * * * enjoying a second-hand car has become the best choice.

"Due to the impact of the epidemic, the number of people who choose buses and get cars through the Internet during short and medium trips has decreased, and more people choose to ride bicycles, which has also spawned a new round of demand for bicycles and motorcycles." Sun Naiyue, an analyst of Analysys tourism industry, told the media.

After the previous "Rainbow Wars" baptism, * * * enjoys a stable bicycle industry, which is occupied by three giants: Hello, Didi and Meituan.

Even so, this industry has proved to be a bad industry. According to the data of Meituan's 20 19 annual report, * * * enjoys the bicycle business at a loss.

So since last year, Hello, Qingju and Meituan have started to raise prices, among which Didi took the lead in changing the starting price from every 30 minutes 1 yuan to every 15 minutes 1 yuan; Meituan and Hello immediately adjusted the starting price from 1 yuan to 1.5 yuan.

"Price increase is an inevitable choice for enterprises, because * * * has basically been unable to achieve profitability through refined operations, and can only make up for losses through price increase." Chen Duan, an associate professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, told the media.

So, is it a good deal for rising stars to enjoy motorcycles?

If this question is put before 2020, the answer is possible. At that time, the Hello family dominated the motorcycle market, accounting for almost 70% of the market. According to Tech Planet, Hello was running its business for profit at that time, so the number of motorcycles put in was limited and the cost was relatively controllable.

At the same time, because * * * enjoys the power-assisted function, it can make riders more labor-saving in the riding process, and it is deeply loved by the public after listing.

According to the data from the transportation department of Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, in 20 19 years, the frequency of motorcycle use in this city was 25 times that of bicycles. In Jiaxing, Zhejiang, there is also such a phenomenon. Each bicycle is used 0.9 times a day, while motorcycles are used 2.2 times.

However, with the entry of Meituan and the efforts of Didi, the whole market once again entered the competition of burning money and subsidies. At the same time, in order to seize more markets, the number of vehicles must be more, which will inevitably cause losses.

"In Foshan, the motorcycle orders enjoyed by Meituan * * * reached 65,438+0,000, but it was losing money, not to mention other cities." An operator of Meituan Foshan mentioned in an interview.

In addition to burning money to grab the market, it is another big factor that the user experience and operating costs are difficult to balance.

Although * * * exclusive motorcycles provide power and convenience that * * * exclusive bicycles do not have, many users will encounter problems such as less parking spots and inaccurate positioning when returning the cars, so that they need to pay dispatching fees to return the cars.

"I used a car once, and I couldn't return it for more than a dozen times. It has been shown that it has not arrived at the parking spot, but it has actually arrived, and finally it has to be returned by dispatching. " Zhou Heng told Wired Insight.

Compared with bicycles, motorcycles increase the work of charging and maintaining batteries, which are carried out by pulling them back to the warehouse in a centralized way. Therefore, if the platform increases parking spots, it will inevitably increase operating costs.

According to a staff member in charge of motorcycle maintenance, motorcycle maintenance is much more difficult than bicycle maintenance, and it is time-consuming and laborious from battery charging to vehicle maintenance and laying than bicycle.

According to LatePost's later report, the manufacturing cost of * * * bicycles is basically around 700- 1 100 yuan, but the cost of * * * motorcycles is as high as 2000-2500 yuan; In terms of operation and maintenance cost, the former only needs to spend 0.5- 1 yuan per day, while the latter needs 3 yuan. In addition, the cost of a battery with a battery life of 70km is around 1000.

Therefore, in terms of cost control, the user experience of mobike platform is contradictory. "If the number of change points increases, the operation and maintenance cost will increase greatly. But if it is not convenient enough, it will damage the convenience of users. " Zhang Yi, chief analyst of Ai Media Consulting, told the media.

In addition, like enjoying bicycles, motorcycles are easily restricted by urban capacity and local government policies.

According to the consulting data of Ai Media, in 2020, among the urban distribution of motorcycle users, first-tier cities only account for 1.8%, second-tier cities account for 27.4%, third-tier cities account for 36.2%, and fourth-tier cities and rural users account for 34.6%.

The competition between giants for the sinking market may have become a "zero-sum" game. "Basically, the market was almost robbed by the end of this year." A hello two-wheeled car later said this to LatePost. At present, there is still a problem before them.

That is, can you survive in a sinking market?

At present, first-tier cities are basically not allowed to develop motorcycles, and some second, third and fourth-tier cities are also increasing their control over motorcycles. In mid-August, several motorcycle companies in Shantou announced that their motorcycles would return to the depot for maintenance. In September, Jiangmen municipal government asked platforms such as Hello and Meituan to recycle all motorcycles they put in.

Now, * * * enjoys motorcycles as much as * * * enjoys bicycles, and the former model is even heavier than the latter. In addition, enjoying motorcycles is more easily restricted by policies and local governments.

Although the road ahead is full of thorns, the giants still spare no effort to lay out in this industry, because the potential of this industry has not yet been released. According to the first financial report, the daily order volume of the whole motorcycle market has not reached 6,543,800+million, and the market space is huge.

"Be a leader in this industry", said Wang Xing, founder of Meituan, and Zhang Zhidong, CEO of Didi Qingju.

Finally, can the giants prove that this is a business worthy of continuous investment? Who will have the last laugh?

(At the request of the interviewee, Zhou Heng is a pseudonym in this article. )