Russian scholar Du Jin: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the "first multipolar war" in the world, and the west is obsessed with the dream of hegemony.

World Wide Web reporter Zhang today reported in Russia that Alexander Dukin, a famous Russian scholar, was interviewed by the media on February 30th 10. Du Jin believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the "first multipolar war" in the world. In this conflict, Russia fights for the right of every civilization to choose its own path, while the West wants to maintain its totalitarianism, but the West is obsessed with the impossible dream of hegemony.

According to the report, Du Jin said in an interview that multipolarization "does not oppose the West itself", but "opposes the West's proposition as a model and unique example of history and human understanding". He believes that the current "Russian phobia" and hatred for Russia are the remnants of the Cold War mentality and "polarized understanding of the structure of international relations."

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Du Jin said, 199 1, 12 When the Soviet Union collapsed in February, "globalized western free civilization" took control of the world. This hegemony now refuses to accept such a future-that is, it is "not one of the two poles, but one of the few poles" and it is "only a part of mankind, not all".

RT went on to say that Du Jin described the West as "pure totalitarian liberalism", pretending to have absolute truth and trying to impose it on everyone. "There is inherent racism in western liberalism," Du Jin said in an interview, because it "defines western history, politics, culture and experience as universal."

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"Nothing is universal in multipolarization." Du Jin explained that every civilization can and should develop its own values. Du Jin mentioned that Russia, in particular, needs to overcome the dominant position of western ideology for centuries and create something "new, fresh and creative". Nevertheless, the emergence of these new things will still be "a direct refutation of western liberal hegemony."

Earlier this year, the murder of Du Jin's daughter caused a shock. On the night of August 20, a car exploded while driving on the outskirts of Moscow, and the driver died on the spot. Investigators then found an explosive device in the car. The deceased was identified as Dalya Dujinna, daughter of the famous Russian sociologist Alexander Du Jin. Du Jin has long been described by the United States and the West as a "far-right nationalist" and a "spiritual guide" for Russian actions against Ukraine. She has long been included in the sanctions list by the United States and other western countries, and her daughter was also sanctioned by the United States and Britain this year. Many Russian media believe that the initial target of the bombing was Du Jin. Some people quickly said that the Ukrainian government was behind the assassination. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zacharova said that if the "trace" of Ukraine's participation in this incident is confirmed, it will point to Ukraine's state terrorism policy. Ukrainian government officials firmly denied this. This incident has brought some uncertainties to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

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Will the Russian-Ukrainian conflict end in 2023? Expert: The intensity of confrontation may continue to rise.

More than 300 days have passed, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has slipped into 2023 unconsciously.

According to CCTV news, the Ukrainian national news agency reported at 65438 local time on February 29 that the whole territory of Ukraine was attacked by large-scale missiles. Podolyak, adviser to the Ukrainian President's Office, posted a message on the official social account that Russian troops fired more than 120 missiles that day. Ukrainian air defense system started and intercepted several Russian missiles. According to the Russian Tass news agency, air defense alarms sounded throughout Ukraine that morning. There have been many loud explosions in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.

At present, Russia has not responded to this.

Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Security Council Vice President Medvedev have frequently expressed their views on the situation in Russia and Ukraine.

What kind of signal does this send to the outside world? What new changes will occur in this conflict? In what form will it end? The National Business Daily interviewed Chen Haoyang, director of the research office of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Baltic countries of the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of China Academy of Social Sciences, Professor Zhao, executive director of the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of China, a military expert and a senior researcher of Taihe Think Tank.

The parties' statement is "more empty than real" and the possibility of negotiation is very small.

On February 28th, 65438, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in an interview about the situation in Russia and Ukraine that Russia was at war with the western collective headed by the United States. Russia's important goal is also to prevent any threat to Russian security from appearing on Ukrainian territory. At the same time, Lavrov said that Russia has never refused to reach a diplomatic understanding with Uzbekistan.

According to Russian TV and Putnik News Agency-Radio Today, Lavrov also said in an interview on 28th that Russia would not negotiate on the basis of the "peace plan" put forward by Uzbekistan. Lavrov said that Ukraine is not ready for dialogue, and Zelensky fantasizes about letting Russia withdraw its troops, pay reparations and go to the International Court of Justice with the help of the West. "Under such conditions, we won't talk to anyone." .

The National Business Daily reporter noted that before Lavrov's speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted an exclusive interview with Kremlin Putin on February 25th, saying that Russia did not refuse to negotiate on the situation in Ukraine. He also pointed out that whether the negotiations can be carried out depends on them, and it is not Russia that refuses to negotiate, but them.

This is the second time in a week that Putin has talked about the possibility of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. He also said at the press conference on February 22, 65438 that Russia's goal is not to accelerate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but to end it as soon as possible.

On the same day, Medvedev, vice chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, published a signed article, claiming that the special military action against Ukraine will continue until the goal is achieved, and promised that Russia will do its utmost to prevent the outbreak of World War III or nuclear disaster.

In response to Putin's and Medvedev's statements, Zhao told the National Business Daily that the situation in Ukraine may continue to escalate in the first half of 2023, the intensity of confrontation between Russia and Ukraine may increase, and the possibility of negotiations is very small. There are four main reasons:

First, the two sides stand in opposition and lack trust.

Zhao believes that both sides regard the signing of the Minsk agreement as a mistake, and there is no need to make mistakes again, which will only give the other side a chance to breathe and regroup. On June+10, 5438, the National Security and Defense Committee of Ukraine decided not to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Second, although the two sides suffered huge losses on the battlefield, they did not completely lose their fighting will and combat effectiveness. Only when at least one of the two sides loses strength to a certain extent and is unable to continue confrontation will the two sides return to the negotiating table and reach a ceasefire agreement. Even so, it is difficult to reach a final solution to the territorial issue.

Third, both sides have their own shortcomings, and it is difficult to gain absolute superiority on the battlefield in the short term to end the war. It is difficult for both sides to choose compromise and concession at the moment. Both sides are ready to continue fighting and are full of confidence in the final victory.

Fourth, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is essentially a confrontation between Russia and the West. It is the strategy of the United States to use Ukraine to weaken Russia and stall Europe. The United States is gradually advancing and has made some progress, so Ukraine will not be allowed to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia and compromise with Russia.

According to CCTV news, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also said in an interview with Russian media on February 28 that Russia and the Western collective headed by the United States are in a state of war. Many American projects and theories claim that Russia is a direct threat. Regarding Russia-US strategic security consultations, Lavrov said that the United States is eager to resume the verification stipulated in the new strategic arms reduction treaty, but is unwilling to act honestly. From a strategic point of view, the United States has destroyed all the foundations on which this treaty is based.

"Therefore, at this stage, no matter which side proposes to negotiate, it is just talk, and there is no adjustment of position. Even if we sit down and talk, it's empty and more real. Whether a ceasefire agreement can be reached depends on the battlefield situation. " Zhao stressed to the reporter of China Business Daily.

Europe may "wake up" and not pay for the United States.

Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has been pulling Europe to help Ukraine.

Earlier this month, the Group of Seven, the European Union and Australia imposed a price ceiling of $60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil. CNN reported that the United States and Canada banned the import of Russian oil this month, while the European Union banned the import of Russian oil by sea. The sanctions were slightly different.

12 On February 27th, the pages of the official websites of the Kremlin and the Russian government showed that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree prohibiting the supply of crude oil and refined oil to countries and regions that restrict Russian oil prices for five months from February 27th next year. This move is unanimously regarded by the outside world as a "formal counterattack" by the West against the Russian oil price limit.

In the next year of 2023, will there be any new changes in the attitudes of Europe and the United States towards Ukraine?

In this regard, Chen Haoyang told the National Business Daily that since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the attitudes of Europe and the United States have also undergone three stages of obvious changes. At first, they lacked confidence in Ukraine and expressed their firm support after the war. Later, due to some economic and financial problems in the United States and the West, their attitudes have also undergone some subtle changes.

"Europe and the United States have imposed six to seven rounds of sanctions on Russia, and the sanctions have been exhausted. This shows that if Russia collapses under the sanctions of the United States and the West, it will be difficult to achieve its goal. " Chen Haoyang told reporters.

Ye Zhao told reporters that, relatively speaking, the United States has gained more and lost less, and it has stronger motivation to support Ukraine to continue its confrontation with Russia. Europe is close to the conflict site and suffers from the energy crisis, high inflation and refugee crisis caused by the conflict, so its motivation in supporting Ukraine against Russia is not as good as that of the United States.

"In addition, there are some differences in the positions of countries within Europe. The continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will damage Europe's economic strength and internal cohesion, and it will not be conducive to achieving the goal of strategic autonomy in the short term. " Zhao further analyzed.

On the 29th, reference news quoted foreign media as saying that in the context of Europe's own rising energy prices and record inflation, their sympathy for Ukrainian refugees became less and less, and they insisted that Kiev sit down and negotiate.

According to the statistics of Poland and Germany, before June+February of 5438, at least 3.5 million refugees lived in Europe for a long time, including 1 0.5 million in Poland, a neighboring country of Ukraine, and110,000 in Germany. The Czech Republic received 453,000 refugees, while Spain, Italy, Bulgaria and Turkey each received 6,543,800+500,000 refugees. Frederic Paul, president of the German Christian Democratic Union, said in early February that the number of refugees was close to the tolerable limit.

"At present, Europe's losses have not reached its tolerable limit. At the limit, Europe will wake up, and at least some countries will not continue to pay for American hegemony. " Zhao believes.

165438+1On October 7th, in Moscow, Russia, people took photos in an open-air exhibition with the theme of commemorating the Soviet Union's 194 1 year Red Square military parade. Image source: Xinhua News Agency reporter Cao She

The hegemonic position of the United States will be consumed and the international order will be reshaped.

Ukrainian President Zelensky seems confident about the situation with Russia. Outside the battlefield, Ukraine is also trying to continue to exert its strength in the diplomatic field.

According to CCTV news, recently, Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered his annual State of the Union address in the Verkhovna Rada, summing up the internal and external situation in Ukraine and determining the goals that Ukraine needs to achieve in the new year.

Looking back on the changes in the past 10 month and how Ukraine has changed the whole world, Zelensky said, "Thanks to our unity, Ukraine has made achievements that few people in the world believe. Ukraine has become one of the global leaders. Ukraine helps the West find itself again and return to the global stage. No one in the West is afraid of Russia and will never be afraid. "

Zelensky further pointed out that this year, Ukraine won the status of EU candidate, but its diplomatic achievements did not stop there. "It is Ukraine that unites the EU. We show everyone that without Ukraine, no alliance in Europe will be strong. It is time to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU. "

In addition, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently issued a statement saying that Russia's succession to the Soviet Union's permanent seat on the UN Security Council lacks legal basis, so it called on the United Nations to deprive Russia of its status as one of the "five permanent members" and completely "expel" it from the United Nations.

However, according to experts, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is slipping into 2023, and the situation facing Ukraine is not so optimistic.

Chen Haoyang told the National Business Daily that there are indications that the Russian military's weapons and equipment and wartime mobilization capabilities are being exerted, and Russia is vigorously expanding economic and trade cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. If Russia's economy is guaranteed, equipment production can be brought into play, and the problem of soldiers on the battlefield can be solved, then the military superiority of the Russian army can be further enhanced in 2023.

According to CCTV news, Russian Finance Minister Shilu Anoff said in an interview with Russian media that the inflation rate in Russia will remain at around 12% in 2022. Shiluanov said that Russia has successfully maintained financial and macroeconomic stability and curbed the growth of inflation. 12% inflation rate is much lower than expected.

On the Ukrainian side, Chen Haoyang believes that the aid of the United States and the West and the domestic combat forces in Ukraine have long been exhausted. "The sixth round of conscription mobilization has expanded the scope of recruits to 60 years old, which shows that Ukraine's own military mobilization potential has reached its limit."

Regarding the impact of this conflict, Zhao told reporters that "the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not a simple military confrontation, but a thorough liquidation of Russia by the West after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and a comprehensive contest between Russia and the West." She further stated that this process will be very long and the radiation range will be very wide. In the future, regardless of the outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it will change the world power structure and reshape the regional political, economic and security systems, which means the beginning of a new international order.

If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues in 2023, Chen Haoyang believes that Europe and the United States will not "find themselves again" as Zelensky said, but will further weaken the position of the United States in international finance and dollar hegemony, which will inevitably lead the West to increase its investment in strategic forces.

"Generally speaking, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has gained many strategic benefits for the western world, but in the long run, its overall global hegemony and international status are actually consumed." Chen Haoyang further explained.