In 219, a crude oil grab war broke out between Iran and Iraq! "Xinda Petrochemical Cen Sug Han"

As two major members of OPEC, Iraq is taking advantage of Iran's sanctions by the United States to seize crude oil buyers and customers and expand its market share, and the competition between Iran and Iraq in the crude oil field is becoming increasingly fierce. In May 219, after the United States terminated the exemption of sanctions on Iranian oil, former important Iranian customers such as China, India and Turkey turned to buy Iraqi crude oil.

according to the statistics of the general administration of customs, in July 219, China's crude oil imports from Iraq once again exceeded 1 million barrels per day, and the average import volume from January to July 219 reached 94, barrels per day, an increase of 1, barrels per day compared with the same period in 218 and 2, barrels per day compared with the same period in 217. As Iran's largest crude oil importer, China's demand for Iraqi crude oil is increasing. Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed? In a meeting with China's Ambassador to Iraq Zhang Tao on August 25, 219, Hakim praised China as "an important strategic partner of Iraq", and also emphasized the necessity for China to increase investment in the energy field in Iraq. After the meeting, China PowerChina and China Norinco International signed a contract to build an oil refinery in Fao, an Iraqi port in the Persian Gulf.

As the second largest crude oil importer in Iran, India's crude oil purchases to Iran fell to the lowest level in May this year. At the same time, India's crude oil imports to Iraq reached 1.15 million barrels per day, the highest level since January 218. In August 219, India's crude oil purchases from Iraq further climbed and exceeded 1.2 million barrels per day, setting a new high since January 217! Most of these import orders come from Paradip Refinery operated by Indian Oil Company and Jamnagar Refinery operated by Indian Trust Company.

In addition, as a former buyer of Iranian crude oil, Turkey's dependence on Iranian oil has also begun to weaken. In May 219, Turkey's purchase of Iraqi crude oil almost doubled compared with April 219, reaching 22, barrels per day, the highest level since mid-218. It can be seen that when Ankara protested against the decision of the United States to revoke the exemption, Turkey has turned to the arms of other crude oil suppliers.

It is worth noting that when Iraq increased its crude oil exports to China, Indian and Turkish countries, it reduced its crude oil exports to the United States. In August 219, Iraq's crude oil exports to the United States fell to 22, barrels per day, and the average crude oil exports from January to August 219 were only half of the same period in 218. We believe that this has something to do with Iraq's desire to take advantage of the growth in demand in Asia and the decline in the dependence of the United States on the import of offshore crude oil, especially light oil.

generally speaking, Iraq successfully took advantage of the blank period of U.S. sanctions against Iran, wooed former Iranian oil buyers such as China, India and Turkey, and took advantage of the huge demand and growth rate of crude oil in Asia. In August this year, its crude oil exports to China and India both reached new highs in recent years, and the trend of Iraq's crude oil export growth is likely to continue.

Risk factors, geopolitics and El Ni? o have great interference with oil prices.

the main point of this article is taken from the report on September 27th, 219, "In 219, a crude oil grab war broke out between Iran and Iraq! "(Cen Sug Han petrochemical industry analyst, practice number S1551981).

Cen Sug Han, petrochemical industry analyst. Peking University Institute of Mathematical Sciences (SMS) holds a bachelor's degree in financial mathematics, a double bachelor's degree in economics from National Development Research Institute (CCER) of Peking University and a master's degree in western economics. In July 217, he joined Cinda Securities Research and Development Center, responsible for petrochemical industry research.

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