What impact will it have on you to raise the mortgage interest rate more often?

Recently, everyone in Dongguan property market is most concerned about the news of "raising mortgage interest rates in many places".

It is reported that it is a common phenomenon that the first home loan interest rate rises. Except for Xiamen, which still implements the benchmark interest rate, the mortgage interest rates of other key second-tier cities have been raised in different degrees, and the floating rate of over 70% cities is in the range of 10%-20%.

Among them, a number of banks in Hangzhou implemented the first benchmark to rise by 8%- 10%, and cities such as Nanjing, Qingdao, Hefei, Wuhan and Wuxi generally rose by 20%-30%.

In Nanning and Suzhou, the interest rate of the first home loan has risen by more than 20% due to the heat of the real estate market. At the same time, some banks have stopped lending in stages, such as Hefei, China Everbright and Minsheng Bank, which have suspended their mortgage business.

It is worth noting that the wave of "collecting loans and reducing loans" is still spreading to other cities.

Needless to say, the importance of mortgage interest rate to buyers. It determines the interest cost of your loan from the bank. Take Suzhou as an example. The loan is 30 years, 2 million yuan, and the mortgage interest rate fluctuates by 20%, which means that the interest cost will be 440,000 yuan more than the benchmark. 440,000 yuan is also a lot of income for wage earners.

Then why focus on raising the mortgage interest rate at this stage? What is the impact on the property market? How should buyers face it? Does it affect people who bought houses before? These are all things we need to see clearly.

I. Functions

Among all the means of regulation, the adjustment of mortgage interest rate is undoubtedly the most important measure, which directly affects the market trend.

For example, 20 15 cut interest rates for five consecutive times, which is equivalent to a 20.33% reduction in mortgage interest rate, the lowest since 19. Coupled with factors such as purchase restriction policy and RMB depreciation, transactions in first-tier cities rose rapidly, and transactions in second-tier property markets doubled. Formed a big bull market.

Later, in order to pull the property market back from the edge of madness, it began to adjust the mortgage interest rate. The last round of collective increase in mortgage interest rate was in March and April of 20 18. At that time, almost all cities were raising mortgage interest rates, especially Dongguan and Foshan, which rose by 40%.

Directly kill 20 18 xiaoyangchun in the cradle.

However, at the beginning of 20 19, the mortgage interest rate was relaxed as a whole, and many cities returned to the benchmark, which attracted a small climax of the multi-city property market this year.

Therefore, from the perspective of market performance, the mortgage interest rate and the property market are "negatively strongly correlated": the mortgage interest rate is raised, the transaction volume is reduced, and the house price is falling; The mortgage interest rate is lowered, the transaction volume is rising, and the house price is rising.

In other words, the increase in mortgage interest rate has curbed the demand for home purchase.

Second, the reason.

As for why we should raise the mortgage interest rate at this stage? We must be aware of this.

According to the situation and the current data, we can probably infer the following reasons:

1. Risk prevention

In fact, according to the normal situation, after Xiaoyangchun, coupled with the overdraft demand of the big bull market, after July, even if the mortgage interest rate is not raised, it is difficult for housing prices in most cities to improve again.

At this time, many cities raise mortgage interest rates, which is a way to accelerate the freezing of the market. Then it can only be said that the current high leverage ratio of residents has touched the warning line, and the market has been unable to withstand a new round of crit, so the umbrella was opened in advance.

2. Hedge the "grabbing war"

Someone asked: "The mortgage interest rate is raised to curb real estate speculation, but why is the first home loan interest rate raised?" Isn't this an accidental injury? "

But from a higher perspective, the increase in mortgage interest rates is mainly to curb demand. However, at present, in order to accelerate the process of urbanization, most cities are in full swing. Wuhan, for example, recently launched a goal of 20 million people. From the beginning, grabbing college students, as long as they meet the age of 45, can be settled in Wuhan, which can be described as loose.

Not surprisingly, zero threshold will become the trend in most cities. The newly settled population will bring new housing demand and boost the flames of housing prices. From this perspective, the war of grabbing people is just pulling the house price that just needs to be "supported". Therefore, it is common sense to raise the interest rate of the first home loan to hedge the rigid demand of the new population.

However, for the newly settled needs, the increase in mortgage interest rates is really hurting.

Change space

What we are mainly doing this year is to reduce taxes and fees, weaken the role of real estate, and let capital flow into the manufacturing industry, making it the main driving force for economic growth. But the reality is that the loan ratio of manufacturing enterprises is not high, funds are still spinning in the property market, and the leverage ratio of real estate has not declined.

So a few days ago, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a heavy notice: "It is decided to carry out special inspections of bank real estate business in 32 cities and severely punish financial institutions that illegally let funds flow into the property market."

Before the deadline, among the thousands of tickets issued by the banking insurance supervision system to banks, the ticket involving illegal blood transfusion in real estate increased by nearly 40% compared with the same period of last year, and the total amount of punishment reached 10 million. Among them, millions of fines involved state-owned banks, foreign banks, joint-stock banks, local banks and rural credit cooperatives, and CITIC Bank was fined more than 20 million for illegally transfusing real estate.

This kind of high-intensity attack on illegal real estate financing is unprecedented. It also proves that the current manufacturing development is of great significance to the economy, so it is common sense to increase the mortgage interest rate while tightening the loans of home buyers.

Third, the impact

In fact, through the second part, the reasons for the increase in mortgage interest rates are discussed. I believe you also have a general idea of the impact of the increase in mortgage interest rates.

In the next period of time, due to the increase in mortgage interest rates and the increase in the cost of buying a house, the market turnover will probably decline.

For housing enterprises, it has reached a difficult stage.

On the one hand, it faces the problem that funds cannot be withdrawn and profits decline. According to the latest data, the monthly sales of TOP 100 real estate developers decreased by 29% from June to July, while the sales of Country Garden, China Evergrande and Vanke Group decreased by 23% in July.

Even the three real estate giants in Wan Heng are so difficult, not to mention those small and medium-sized housing enterprises.

Second, facing the embarrassing situation of shrinking financing channels. In particular, the financing channel, which previously restricted the trust from transfusing blood to real estate, has caused some housing enterprises to get into trouble, and now banks are severely punished for illegally lending to real estate. It can be seen that in the future, housing enterprises with tight capital chains will fall in batches.

For them, the only hope for survival is to "exchange price for quantity".

Not surprisingly, in the month of 10, a large number of discount plates will enter the market, and the price of new houses will be reduced at a discount, which will affect the second-hand housing market sentiment and push down the price of second-hand houses. At that time, the news that local developers were forbidden to cut prices would frequently make headlines in the property market. These are all visible things.

(The picture shows the trend chart of the number of discount price reduction plates in Shanghai on 20 14-20 15).

Of course, this kind of market is quite difficult for buyers to operate.

The increase of mortgage interest rate will undoubtedly increase the cost of buying a house, and the discount market will reduce the cost of buying a house to some extent. At this time, we must weigh the gains and losses.

If there is a lot of discount space, for example, some developers are forced to sell new sites at a 20% discount in order to withdraw funds, and there is room for price difference with the surrounding second-hand houses, and the location is good and the resilience is strong, saving hundreds of thousands at once, which is undoubtedly a good time to pick up the leaks.

Besides, you don't have to worry, and then there is a buyer's market. Buyers have ample bargaining space. If you want to buy a house, you must recover the cost of raising the mortgage interest rate. Of course, those cities where the mortgage interest rate rises by 20% should be more cautious.

Because according to the current market situation, there is no incentive to continue to raise the mortgage interest rate, because the local government does not want the property market to enter the winter at once. If the property market is too deserted, the mortgage interest rate will definitely be lowered. This is a play that has been handed down before.

Finally, let's be clear:

"If the mortgage interest rate of the house you just bought a few days ago rises, does it mean that your monthly payment will also increase?" I believe many people have doubts.

Generally speaking, banks will have two ways to mortgage loans. First, the fixed interest rate, which means that the interest rate of 5% is fixed. No matter how the benchmark interest rate is adjusted, the bank loan interest rate will not change. The other is floating interest rate, which will change with the benchmark interest rate of the central bank. This is a common repayment method now.

To be sure, the bank's increase in mortgage interest rates has no effect on people who bought houses before. But the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate, which is different. Raising the benchmark means that the repayment amount will increase accordingly.

Therefore, the change of benchmark interest rate has a great impact on China real estate market. This is also why the Federal Reserve announced a 25-point interest rate cut a few days ago, and 2/kloc-0 countries around the world joined the army of interest rate cuts, but even if the RMB "broke 7", China's benchmark interest rate remained unmoved.