News about the Ukrainian Civil War

The latest news on the situation in Ukraine: overt and covert struggles in the Ukrainian civil war

2014-09-05 07:20 Source: People's Liberation Army Daily Author: Font Size

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On August 25, while the Ukrainian government held a grand military parade in Kiev, anti-government armed forces organized a parade of Ukrainian government captives in the eastern town of Donetsk; On August 31, just after the media revealed that NATO would form a large-scale rapid reaction force to deal with Russia, Putin said harshly: It is best not to mess with us...

This stark scene is the Ukrainian civil war. A vivid portrayal of the conflict between the warring parties and the great powers behind them. In this civil war, what was the composition and combat effectiveness of both sides' military forces? What role does the great power game play behind the scenes? What is the future trend of the Ukrainian civil war? People are looking forward to these question marks being straightened out.

Anti-government armed forces—

They are diverse but not a mob

Not long after the civil strife broke out in Ukraine, some analysts pointed out that although some states and cities in southeastern Ukraine were rebelled against The government armed forces occupied and controlled it and declared independence on their own. However, many problems such as inconsistent ideas, lack of unified organization, and lack of heavy equipment will make it vulnerable to the counterattack of the Ukrainian government forces. However, that doesn't seem to be the case. Half a year later, the anti-government armed forces not only performed well in urban offensive and defensive battles, but were even able to frequently destroy Ukrainian government fighter jets, transport planes, tanks and other equipment.

It is estimated that the current strength of the anti-government armed forces is between 10,000 and 20,000. Its composition is diverse and complex, and the majority are former veterans of the Russian ethnic group in the southeast, as well as local young people who have worked in mining factories, military factories and other enterprises. Many of these veterans have participated in the Afghan War, domestic anti-terrorism operations and other wars, and have considerable practical experience. Yuri, the commander of the 12th company of the "Donetsk People's Army", was a former Soviet special forces commander and participated in the battle in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Almost all of the soldiers in the company he led had served in the Soviet or Ukrainian infantry, airborne troops, special forces or anti-aircraft units.

The Ukrainian government troops and police who defected on the spot are also an important part of the anti-government forces. At the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, many Ukrainian government troops in the southeast directly changed their political affiliations due to their pro-Russian political beliefs and joined the anti-government camp. Especially at the beginning of this year, the "Golden Eagle" special force was announced to be disbanded by the Ukrainian authorities. In addition to a large number of members who swore allegiance to Russia, there were also a large number of people who joined the anti-government armed forces and became a force against the government forces.

The infiltration of foreign armed personnel also adds a mysterious color to this armed force. As early as April this year, observers discovered that among the Ukrainian anti-government armed forces, there were some established armed detachments. These detachments were well-dressed, well-armed, and highly professional. They were far different from temporary civilian armed forces. Some analysts believe that judging from their accents, equipment, technical and tactical characteristics, etc., these troops are likely to be Russian special forces that directly penetrated into Ukraine. An anti-government official in Slavyansk said slightly cryptically, "Of course the only people I can turn to are my former comrades. They come from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and even Moldova." But these armed detachments did not stay forever. In the Eastern Theater, its true origin is unknown.

Ukrainian anti-government armed weapons are diverse and come from several sources: first, civilian weapons, such as shotguns collected by combatants from civilians, as well as homemade artillery, launchers, etc.; second, the defected Ukrainian government The "dowry" brought by the army included many heavy equipment. For example, an armored unit of the Ukrainian government army defected and brought more than 10 tanks and multiple infantry fighting vehicles at once; the third was seized from the Ukrainian government army and police For example, during the battle to capture the Donetsk police station, the rebels obtained nearly a thousand pistols and rifles in one fell swoop. In addition, there have been rumors that some external forces, including Russia, secretly delivered a large number of advanced weapons to the Ukrainian anti-government armed forces, but Russia and other countries have always firmly denied it.

It is such a seemingly mixed armed force, but its combat effectiveness is more powerful than people imagine.

Judging from the will to fight, most of these people belong to the Russian ethnic group and have deep grievances with the Ukrainian government. The intention of independence does not form overnight. They have the decisive battle mentality to risk death and survive, and they are relatively resolute in fighting. From a technical and tactical point of view, in addition to those veterans of the former Soviet Union and defected troops who have relatively rich combat experience and professional training, since more than 70% of Ukraine’s military industries are concentrated in the eastern region, there are many local military industry employees, and those who participated in the battle of young people are no strangers to combat weapons. As one local young man said: "We learned how to use weapons when we were students, including throwing bombs and loading, unloading and using automatic rifles." In addition, being familiar with the combat environment and having the support and help of the local people are also factors for anti-government An important growth point for armed combat effectiveness.

The Ukrainian government army—

It has superior strength but cannot cover up its weaknesses

Whether it is in terms of organization and command, troop size, weapons, equipment, and material supply, The Ukrainian government troops are much stronger than the rebels.

However, at the beginning of the Ukrainian civil war, due to political beliefs and ideas, as well as the huge pressure exerted by Russia on Ukraine, the Ukrainian government troops were "unwilling to fight, unable to fight, and did not dare to fight". The mood was very serious, especially It was the Ukrainian government troops in the southeast that showed a large number of non-resistance or defections on the battlefield, which greatly shocked the Ukrainian authorities and formed a serious distrust between the Ukrainian government and the army. The Ukrainian authorities' insistence on disbanding the "Golden Eagle" unit is an external manifestation of this distrust. In order to solve this problem, the Ukrainian authorities' strategy is to make the military forces fighting the anti-government armed forces more diversified and decentralized, rather than placing their hopes solely on the government forces.

In April this year, the Ukrainian authorities established a new National Guard in addition to the government forces specifically to combat anti-government armed forces. This force is built for emergencies and has loose recruitment standards. Anyone who is committed to fighting anti-government forces, is in good health, has no criminal record, and is between the ages of 18 and 55 can apply to join the army. Since they were recruited voluntarily after the outbreak of the civil war, this newly formed unit has concentrated many ultra-nationalists who hate Russians. They are more loyal to the Ukrainian authorities, fight more bravely, and have performed well in several battles. .

Earlier, some observers believed that external military forces serving the Ukrainian authorities also appeared in the eastern theater of Ukraine. Analysts believe that this is probably because the Ukrainian authorities have outsourced certain combat tasks and combat areas to foreign security companies to enrich and strengthen their ability to combat anti-government armed forces. Although these information and analyzes have not been recognized by the Ukrainian authorities, the actual presence of external pro-Ukrainian armed forces in the war zone means that this possibility cannot be ruled out.

In terms of tactics, at the beginning of the conflict, the original strategic intention of the Ukrainian authorities was to eliminate the root causes and avoid future troubles, and to adopt positional warfare focusing on annihilation warfare against the anti-government armed forces. However, this method pushed the anti-government forces to a desperate situation to a large extent. The Ukrainian government forces encountered fierce resistance and suffered heavy casualties. In response to this situation, the Ukrainian authorities gradually adjusted some tactics and focused more on taking advantage of their obvious advantages in the size and strength of their troops. They adopted a combination of encirclement and attack to promote change in several important towns in the east. Currently, due to the siege by Uzbek government forces, severe food and energy shortages have occurred in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. Water and power outages are severe. The anti-government armed forces, especially the local people, are suffering unspeakably. The Uzbek authorities have taken advantage of this opportunity. The machine worked step by step and captured some important strongholds.

Although the advantages are obvious, the weaknesses of the Ukrainian government forces are also difficult to cover up. On the one hand, because Russia has mobilized a large number of military forces on the Russian-Ukrainian border, and armed squads suspected of being Russian special forces have continued to appear in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian government forces cannot let go of their hands and feet because they are worried about a direct military conflict with Russia. Push forward with all your might. On the other hand, the financial resources of the Ukrainian government, which is not wealthy, are even more stretched, and it may be difficult to sustain a long-term war of attrition. As early as July, the Ukrainian Finance Minister made it clear that due to insufficient funds, the Ukrainian government troops may be in the dilemma of "no pay" as early as August. Once the military pay is insufficient, the Ukrainian government army's fighting will is likely to suffer a serious decline.

Earlier, the 25th Air Mobile Brigade of the Ukrainian army that besieged Slavyansk became angry and defected to the local anti-government forces because it could not fill its stomach for several days.

External forces -

Military games will affect the direction of the war in Ukraine

Currently, the Ukrainian government forces and anti-government forces have each other's strengths and weaknesses, and the war situation is in a stalemate. In the future, the game between the big powers behind these two forces, especially the layout and use of military means, will have an important impact on the direction of the war.

From Russia’s perspective, there are roughly three options for its military use. The first is to continue to maintain the strategic deterrence trend of using large numbers of troops to suppress the situation. Russia's frequent military mobilizations and exercises on the Russian-Ukrainian border are considered to be the backbone of the Ukrainian anti-government forces, which poses huge strategic pressure on the Ukrainian authorities and government forces. More importantly, this enables Russia to be the first to take the lead when the war situation changes. Time to seize the military initiative. According to research and statistics from a military think tank in Kiev, Russia currently has a total military deployment around Ukraine of 80,000 people. Military equipment includes tanks, armored fighting vehicles, multiple launch rocket systems, artillery systems, fighter jets, armed helicopters and naval ships. etc. in almost every aspect. It is conceivable that Russia will not easily lift its high-pressure military posture against Ukraine, especially in the southeast, in the future.

The second is to carry out small-scale, covert military infiltration. As the Ukrainian anti-government armed forces are generally at a relative disadvantage, through small-scale military infiltration and relatively covert military consultation, intelligence supply, and even direct combat support, it is an important lever to maintain a relative balance in the Ukrainian civil war. Ukraine and Western countries have always accused that there is sufficient evidence that Russian troops have penetrated into Ukraine. Russia completely denied this and launched a public opinion counterattack. However, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Churkin’s statement had a different meaning. He said that there are indeed Russian personnel in Ukraine, but these people are “volunteers” who “use their own time to go to Ukraine” to support civilian armed forces.

The third is to carry out direct high-intensity military intervention. Once the situation in the Ukrainian civil war takes a huge turn that is not conducive to the Ukrainian anti-government forces and seriously threatens Russia's security interests, Putin's strategic style cannot rule out the possibility of direct and high-intensity military intervention by Russia. However, this approach also faces serious political and military risks and is not a strategic priority for Russia.

From the perspective of Western countries such as the United States and the European Union, since their stakes in the Ukraine issue are much lower than those of Russia, their strategic focus should still be to avoid direct military confrontation and conflict with Russia. . But this does not mean that the West does nothing militarily. It can exert force in at least two aspects to check and balance and retaliate against Russia's strategic offensive.

On the one hand, it is taking a long-term view, playing peripheral cards, taking the opportunity to promote the overall military strategic advantage in Eastern Europe, and continue to squeeze Russia's strategic space. NATO's 28 member states had earlier held a special military meeting on Russia's practices in Ukraine and designed a "package plan" to enhance its military presence in Central and Eastern Europe: increasing the frequency and intensity of military exercises in the region; expanding NATO's air force Air patrol operations in the Baltic countries; investing more military power in Eastern European countries; establishing permanent military bases in these countries, etc. In particular, the United Kingdom and the other six NATO countries will form the main body to form a rapid reaction force of at least 10,000 people. This force will include the navy, land and air forces, with the main task of consolidating the security of Eastern Europe.

On the other hand, there is indirect military assistance to Ukraine. This mainly includes the provision of military advisors, intelligence and financial support, non-lethal military resources and equipment, etc. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the United States has publicly provided two batches of non-lethal military assistance to Ukraine. In the future, NATO may also rely on its advantages in satellites, drones, etc. to strengthen intelligence collection and share it with Ukraine, strengthen its network power to help Ukraine gain an advantage in cyber warfare, and so on. In particular, Ukraine and NATO have reached an agreement to break the taboo that has been in place since Ukraine's independence for 23 years and invite several NATO countries to hold large-scale joint exercises in Ukraine before November this year.

Through this kind of exercise, NATO troops can go deep into the hinterland of Ukraine, more directly help the Ukrainian army improve its combat capabilities, and establish a series of cooperation mechanisms to fight against Russia.