What is the current development prospect and direction of the automobile industry?

Problems and prospects for the development of the automobile industry:

As a large country with a large population, it is necessary to develop the automobile industry.

On the one hand, this is a technology-intensive and labor-intensive industry. If it develops well, it will have many benefits: solving employment problems; improving the overall technical level; promoting the comprehensive development of the automobile industry chain; and GDP growth. etc. But when it comes to how this industry develops, it's very complicated. From the perspective of the industrial chain, technology is essential to produce good cars early, which requires high investment from the government and the emergence of a large number of high-end talents.

The first step is raw materials. Including steel, magnesium, aluminum, alloys, plastics, and organic materials, these involve a variety of basic industries. Only when these are done well will the following things come.

The second step is the manufacturing of parts, electronic accessories and other accessories. These things are hard. There is a phenomenon that can be used as a reference, which is the current problem of domestically produced imported cars. Take Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi as examples. The price of Mercedes-Benz's domestically produced C and E cars has not dropped much compared with imported ones. The reason is because the domestic production rate is not high enough. That is to say, some of the domestically produced C-class and E-class cars come from China. Not many, because the quality of domestically produced parts and components does not meet the requirements of the German headquarters and can still only be imported. The import tariffs on parts and components are relatively low, but according to government regulations, once the total value of imported parts exceeds the entire vehicle 60% of the value (this is the number in my mind), then imported parts and components are taxed according to the tariff rate of complete vehicle imports, so the price of the final domestically produced car will not change significantly compared with the imported car. Looking at BMW and Audi again, the A4, A6, and 3 Series are imported luxury models that were domestically produced relatively early, and the domestic production rate is relatively high. However, one problem with these cars is that there are more minor problems. These three brands Taken together, it is easy to conclude that the quality of domestic spare parts cannot keep up. Finally, let’s look at many foreign brands. Most of the products with high technical content and high-end products owned by the company are not domestically produced. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi’s S-class, 7 Series, A8, various off-road vehicles, and sports cars, including Volvo S80 and so on, it is impossible for them to be made in China. They would rather produce in their own country and then ship it out, and they would not hesitate to bear all kinds of expensive taxes and fees from the exporting country. These are all projects that will eat into the company's profits. Would the management of such a large group not understand this? Why? Ensure quality and brand name! Looking back at these successful automobile companies, the cars they manufacture and sell domestically are durable and of first-class quality. One important reason is that they have high-quality suppliers.

Third, now that the parts and components are available, it is up to the automobile manufacturing companies to build their own cars. What do they rely on for development? Sell ??the car! The more you sell, the better your business will develop, the more funds you will have, and you will be able to build better cars later on. How can a car sell well? There are nothing more than three points: 1. Cheap; 2. Good performance; 3. Full-featured and easy to use; 4. Beautiful appearance. It's not impossible to achieve all three points, but there must be a limit. If you want to use QQ's price to buy a car that looks like a Lexus, runs as well as a BMW and is as comfortable as an S600, it is of course a fantasy. The choice of a manufacturer must be the best balance of these factors. How can it be cheaper? Cost control, including production and manufacturing costs (production process control, if there are too many steps, the cost will increase, if there are too few steps, the quality will not be good; if there are too many steps, the quality will be poor; if there are too many, it will be too expensive, but if there are too few, people will not work;...), management expenses (how to use the least amount of People do the most things, what kind of salary is the most appropriate...), sales expenses (how to spend the least money, use the least time, and hire the least sales staff to achieve the most sales... You can't stand on the road immediately Someone comes to buy a car just because there is a billboard, right? Why? His money is not stolen, even if it is stolen, it still requires time and effort, right?) How to build a car to make it go fast? This is a big technical problem, and I don’t know how to do it. Think about it, why is BMW’s Z4 (3.0 displacement) faster than the Mercedes-Benz SLK350 (3.5 displacement)? Do you understand? I don't understand anyway. How to have many functions, easy to use and practical? What kind of car is comfortable to drive? I really don’t understand this, but when you drive Fukang or Mercedes-Benz, you will understand everything. As for how to make it, you have to ask the technical experts of the two manufacturers.

What kind of thing looks good so that you can show off to your relatives and friends? This is an aesthetic issue, and people have different opinions. I don’t know anything about it, but probably no one would think that Alto is better-looking than Audi, right? A beautiful appearance must be designed by an excellent designer! What kind of car can be used easily? Apart from the functions, I guess no one wants to go to the repair shop and get coffee every now and then, right? Other factors include fuel consumption, brand, manufacturer promotion and other factors. These are small problems, but in many cases they also play a lot of roles.

In addition to market factors, the government also needs to get involved in the above things, which I won’t go into. Anyway, it doesn’t have any good effect now, I think.

Travel restriction issue:

The starting point of the traffic restriction policy is to reduce road congestion and improve air quality, but the government should not be stupid enough to use this method to suppress the automobile industry. Development, what a source of tax revenue it is. The country needs to be built, and officials have to be corrupted. What can we do if there is less tax revenue? ! Now that GDP growth is slowing down, car transactions are at least five digits, and one sky-high price car can buy several yachts. Isn’t 100 Mercedes-Benz equivalent to a GDP of 100 million? How many Mercedes-Benz vehicles are sold in China each year? Besides, there are so many Mercedes-Benz cars priced at more than 1 million, what about other brands? Therefore, traffic restrictions are not intended to suppress the automobile market. Is it actually suppressed? Some people think that because they can’t make full use of it, they simply don’t buy it and take a taxi! But I don't think so. The above thoughts are the thoughts of people who have no money to buy a car, or who only have money to buy a car. What if you have enough financial resources to buy two cars? Compared with the negligible parking fee, would you buy a car again? Nowadays, the gap between rich and poor is increasing. Even if people who cannot afford a car are not restricted from driving, they may never buy a car in their lifetime. People who buy cars must be people with some financial resources. They will think: Why not buy a second-hand car? Right, let alone those who are richer: I have a Mercedes-Benz, but I can’t watch it every day anyway, so why not buy a BMW to play around with, since I still have plenty of money! -vice versa! Therefore, even if traffic is restricted, the number of cars on the street will soon increase and it will eventually become blocked again.

Secondly, what about government procurement? Those ghosts drive their Audi A6 and have banquets every day. Are you still afraid that one day they will run out of cars? The state always has a way to solve "difficulties" for these people!

These two factors are likely to offset the inhibitory effect of the policy.

One more thing, don’t forget, it’s only Beijing that restricts travel. You don’t know, I don’t know, whether other places will restrict travel. Only the government knows.

In fact, if we really want to see how China's automobile market will develop, this is a difficult question because there are too many factors. If there is really a clue, we might as well analyze it from the relationship between demand and supply. No matter what the thing is, no matter what the price is, as long as the demand is strong and exceeds the supply, it is inevitable that the market will compete for development. Even if this market is illegal, it still follows this law. Otherwise, you wonder why the drug trade continues to be banned? What's more, the development of the automobile industry has more advantages than disadvantages? What factors affect demand and how do they affect supply? The more comprehensive and in-depth you consider, the closer you will get to the truth of the matter. However, this truth can only be approached and is difficult to touch.

★If you want to collect paper information, I hope my point of view will be helpful to you, but you still need a lot of information. If it is purely for thinking and discussion, you are welcome to discuss it with us. ★

In addition, most opinions now believe that what can really inhibit or slow down the development of the automobile industry is not the automobile itself, but the construction of other public transportation facilities, such as subways. In an extreme case, if you buy a car purely for transportation, and suddenly one day the subway in your city can take you to wherever you want to go at any time, will you buy a car? I definitely won't. I don't have spare money, and I don't want to buy a car and leave it there just to calculate depreciation, pay endless parking fees, and various taxes. But when it really comes to that situation, only the fragile domestic automobile industry will be harmed, and those that can still survive are those cars that have been listed as luxury brands and the companies that own them.

A few final words.

If you really like this industry and really have the enthusiasm, then go there without hesitation. This is an aspect that China needs to revitalize. Looking at the world, any country with a large automobile group is a powerful country. The United States , Germany, and Japan are now basically a tripartite situation, and these three countries also constitute the world's three largest economies or the centers of economies, and the most powerful of them, Germany, BMW and Volkswagen, are now in Everyone can see how China's business is doing, and Mercedes-Benz is even more of a symbol of this country. In terms of group performance, Japan's Toyota is already the well-deserved number one in the world, along with Honda and Nissan. Although the three major American groups, General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler, are currently losing money, the U.S. government will not let them collapse easily, and a skinny camel is bigger than a horse. General Motors was the dominant player in the global automobile industry before Toyota and ranked first in the world for many years. Ranked first in the top 500 industries. Now China's automobile industry has just started. Compared with them, it can be said that there is no technical strength at all. Many experts predict that China's automobile companies will go through a period of adjustment in the future, including mergers and acquisitions between large companies and companies, resulting in the integration of brands and then the integration of production lines. Therefore, the future is still bright, but the road to national industry is still long, far away, and may still be difficult. I don’t know if I will be able to see the world divided into four parts by China, Japan, Germany and the United States in my lifetime.