The report of the two sessions just mentioned real estate again! Extraordinary period, extraordinary signal

2020 is a crucial year for the economy.

This year is not only the closing year of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, but also the beginning year of building a well-off society in an all-round way. The impact of unexpected events will make 2020 face a more severe situation than before.

The more important things are, the more authority is needed to set the tone.

How high is the economic goal? How to stabilize domestic demand and foreign trade? Will the flood irrigation be staged again? Will the regulation of the property market be loosened? When will the real estate tax land? ...

These questions concern everyone.

0 1

Six guarantees are given priority, and GDP growth targets are not mentioned.

In 2020, economic growth targets are rarely set.

The reason behind this is not difficult to understand. As the report says:

What Liu Wen said is "stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment and stable expectations".

Six guarantees are "to ensure residents' employment, basic livelihood, market players, food and energy security, stable supply chain of industrial chain and grass-roots operation." "

Visible, relative to economic growth, stable employment and people's livelihood is the first, which is the embodiment of the bottom line thinking.

Whether it is "six guarantees" or "six guarantees", it is related to the basic economic fundamentals. This is the key, and a series of reform measures are needed, which can not be easily realized simply by stimulating the economy. Since GDP has been diluted, there is an urgent need to stimulate real estate.

02

Anti-epidemic special national debt, RRR cuts interest rates

How will fiscal and monetary policies work?

According to the report:

It can be seen that the fiscal deficit, special anti-epidemic national debt, RRR reduction and interest rate reduction have all been put on the agenda. Expanding finance and loosening currency are extraordinary moves in extraordinary times.

It is worth noting that the currency should be "more flexible and moderate", which is different from the "moderate tightness" in previous years.

The growth rate of M2 is obviously higher than last year's 8.7%, and it has climbed to 1 1. 1% in April 2020.

This shows that there is still room for expansion of monetary policy, and it is still possible to reduce RRR and cut interest rates.

03

Again, I mentioned housing, not speculation, nor did I mention real estate tax.

This time, the report once again mentioned that "housing is not speculation".

There are three main points here:

First, since the beginning of this year, "no speculation in housing" has frequently appeared in authoritative meetings, central bank reports and reports of the two sessions, which is enough to show that the bottom line of property market regulation is still there.

Second, the statement of the city's policy is consistent with last year. This means that local governments have certain autonomy in the regulation of the property market, and the whole country is no longer a chess game.

However, this does not mean that all localities can relax regulation at will. After all, "housing is not speculation" is the major principle, and "stable and healthy development of real estate" is the basic requirement.

Prior to this, the property market liberalization policies of more than 10 cities in China were embarrassed by the "n-day tour", which is enough to explain the problem.

Third, there is no real estate tax.

Not long ago, the central document once again mentioned the real estate tax, pointing out that "the real estate tax legislation will be steadily promoted", which shows that the real estate tax will definitely come, but "safe" means that it will not land so soon.

04

Fade out of the low tide and always relay.

Old change, relay shed change.

According to the spirit of the policy, the transformation of old residential areas is mainly based on the old residential areas completed at the end of 2000, which is commonly known as "the youngest" and is generally concentrated in the old cities of major cities.

The acceleration of the old reform is obviously conducive to the improvement of the old and young valuations.

However, just as the Central Committee mentions the renovation of old residential areas, what is the impact? The shed reform is a big demolition and construction, and the old reform is a minor repair. The shed reform is supported by the central bank's directional water release, and the old reform has only partial financial subsidies.

Without the endorsement of the mother, the old reform will lose the leverage amplification effect and will not produce huge energy like the shed reform.

05

China property market is a typical policy city. There is no constant property market regulation, and there is no property market that only rises or falls.

Therefore, we see that the regulation of the property market is loose and tight, and the policy adjustment is wide and strict, which is the result of changes in the economic environment and the property market environment.

Therefore, to understand China's property market policy, it is necessary to understand the current economic environment, and understand under which objectives the policy will be selected and weighed.

Looking back at the history, in 20 17, the key words were "destocking", "policy for the city" and "monetization of shed reform". In 20 18, the key words became "staying in the house without speculation", "property tax" and "both renting and selling", and the property market completed the transformation from loose to tight.

20 19, the key words have become "implementing the main responsibility of the city", "promoting the stable development of the real estate market" and "real estate tax". Since the beginning of this year, the main tone of property market regulation has become "stable", which should not only curb the skyrocketing, but also prevent the plunge.

In 2020, the economic environment in this year is completely different from the past, and GDP has experienced the first negative growth in more than 40 years, which shows that the situation is grim.

Even so, the property market still emphasizes that "housing is not speculation", which is enough to show the importance and determination to prevent real estate speculation in a relaxed background.

After all, finance is expanding, money is easing, RRR and interest rate cuts are continuing, the environment facing the property market is no longer as tense as it was at the beginning of the year, and some core cities are expected to stabilize.

Therefore, the house is not speculation, which is a fixed tone, but also a rainy day, which is a big principle.

After all, stable employment and people's livelihood are the first, domestic demand, infrastructure and real economy are the first, and the importance of real estate is secondary.