Why is the family planning policy a time bomb?

In 2005, there were 65.438+0.43 billion people over 60 years old in China, of which only over 40 million people enjoyed social pension in cities. Even so, the pension gap is equivalent to the total income of the national economy for one year. After 2030, the number of elderly people over 60 will reach 400 million, and the working population will be greatly reduced. At present, there are nine working-age people in China corresponding to one elderly population. In the future, there will be two working-age people corresponding to one elderly population, which will be an extremely aging country. The one-child policy has led to an increase in the sex ratio at birth. 1.996 The sex ratio born in 2005 was as high as 1.27. Plus some single women, it means that 30% of men will be single in the future, and 40 million single people without wives will be sentenced to jail!

The population problem is a question of right and wrong. Please pay attention to the population crisis from the perspective of saving the country and save the Chinese nation!

1. The security of population structure is the highest level of national security. The premise of social sustainable development is that the population itself must continue to develop, and to ensure that the population will not increase or decrease compared with the previous generation (generation replacement), at present, developed countries need women to have an average of 2. 1 child, while most developing countries need women to have an average of 2.5 to 3.3 children. Because the abnormal mortality rate and the sex ratio of the birth population are higher than those in developed countries, the total fertility rate (the number of children per woman of childbearing age) in China needs to be above 2.3. Considering infertility, singles, dink and other people, a normal society should be that mainstream families have three children, some families have one or two children, and some families have four or five children. If the mainstream families in a country refuse to have children, are unwilling to have children or can't afford to have three children, it shows that the country has lost the ability of sustainable development.

2. Population has its internal control mechanism. In ancient times, the population was controlled by the "left hand" (plague, war, famine, natural disasters, etc.). After Columbus discovered America, the high-yield crops in the New World of America were introduced to the old world, and the progress of modern agricultural technology increased the grain by several times. Coupled with the popularity of vaccines and penicillin, the average life expectancy in the world has been extended from 20 years in the past to 60 years now, and the population has increased dramatically. A young population structure is a necessary condition for the rise of all countries. However, industrialization oppresses the population through the "right hand", reducing the fertility will, nurturing ability and fertility, leading to a decline in fertility rate and serious aging, making it difficult for society to develop sustainably (the poorer it gets, the richer it gets, the less it gets), which is consistent with the old saying of China that "wealth cannot be immoral". This "two-handed" regulation mechanism makes the population change in an S-shape, with a low-level stationary period of several thousand years, a sharp rising period of about 300 years, and then a high-level stationary period or a declining period. Family planning made China give up the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of population development. If China did not implement family planning in the1970s, with the improvement of the human development index (a comprehensive index reflecting the level of social development), the fertility rate would plummet spontaneously and the population would not increase indefinitely. At the end of 2005, the population of China was only about1500 million. Even if family planning is completely stopped in 1980, the population in 2005 will only be about1400 million, but the population structure will be more reasonable and more conducive to the sustainable development of the country.

3. The increase of population in China is not because Mao Zedong encourages childbearing, but mainly because of the increase of life expectancy, which means "fewer deaths" rather than "too many births". The average life expectancy in China increased from 35 years in 1949 to 68 years in 1980, and the population increased from 550 million to1000 million in the same period. Mao Zedong's population policy stopped the downward trend of China's population in the world (from 40% in the world at the beginning of19th century to 22% in 1949), and the population of China in 1949 was 22% in the world, or 22% in 1980. According to Ma Yinchu's population theory, 300 million people were born less from 1959 1979 (actually 457 million), that is to say, nearly two-thirds of the population born after 1959 can't be born, and now the elderly are born before Ma Yinchu people put forward the population theory, so China may have collapsed because of aging. The population of China from11950s to11970s has become the current labor force, which is the real "demographic dividend" at present. The current economic development is largely "eating the food of ancestors", but the current family planning is "breaking the roots of future generations". At present, the global economy is benefiting from China's "demographic dividend", but China will face "demographic debt" in the future, which will also seriously affect the global economy.

The human population has been fluctuating at a low level for thousands of years, and the quality of life has not changed much. In the past 300 years, the population explosion led to the explosion of science and technology. Population density advantage and scale advantage are necessary (but not sufficient) conditions for economic prosperity. With the increase of population, the consumption of existing resources is only an "additive" increase; But it is more important to change the current "non-resources" (such as nitrogen and sunlight) into new resources (nitrogen fertilizer and solar energy), but the increase of this new resource is "multiple". The history of human civilization is the process of constantly turning "non-resources" (such as coal and oil in the past) into "resources". This is why the modern population has been increasing and the living standard has been improving. This shows that the progress of science and technology and the growth of economy are much faster than the growth of population. Besides, the population growth has slowed down now (it is hard to stop the sudden decline of China's population), and the progress of science and technology is still accelerating. Who can assert the population ceiling of China? China's population decline is a tragedy all over the world.

5. Overpopulation in China is just a common lie. The total amount of all resources in China ranks first in the world: agricultural land area ranks first in the world, land area and mineral resources rank third in the world, forest area ranks fifth in the world, and fresh water resources rank sixth in the world. Because of the uneven distribution of resources, "world average" is of little significance, and being lower than "world average" does not mean that resources are insufficient. The population of the former Soviet Union, Oceania, the United States, Canada and Mongolia is less than 10% of the world's, but their land area exceeds 39% of the world's. The United States, Canada, Russia, Oceania and South America account for 13.7% of the world's population, but they own 36% of the world's cultivated land. Russia, Canada, the United States, South America, Oceania and Congo account for 14.5% of the global population, but they have 65.7% of the global forest area. South America, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, the United States, Oceania, Myanmar and Congo account for 18.8% of the global population, but they have 64% of the global water resources. The populations of Oceania, South America, the United States, the former Soviet Union and Mongolia are less than 14% of the global population, but they account for 48% of the global grassland area. The former Soviet Union, the United States, South Africa, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Germany and Britain account for 13% of the world's population, but they own 62.3% of the world's mineral resources. Except for a few resource-rich countries, China's per capita resources are not at a disadvantage. For example, except China, 40.9% of the world's population has more agricultural land per capita than China, and 59. 1% of the world's population has less agricultural land per capita than China. The per capita mineral resources of/kloc-0.6% population in the world are eight times that of China, but the per capita mineral resources of China are 1.56 times that of other 84% population. China's population density is 37% of India's, per capita agricultural land area is 2.55 times that of India, per capita cultivated land area is 73.5% of India's, per capita long-term crop land area is 1. 13 times that of India, per capita grassland area is 30. 14 times that of India, per capita forest area is 2.08 times that of India, and per capita fresh water resources are 650. The reason of China's "resource shortage" is mainly the extensive development model rather than the "overpopulation". The main factors affecting food security are agricultural policy and population structure, not cultivated land. Comparing the resource-rich and resource-poor countries, it is found that the economic level is not entirely determined by the per capita natural resources, because the population resource is the first resource and the largest advantageous resource in China. People are the "foundation" (non-resources can be turned into "resources"), and natural resources are the "purpose". To improve "per capita resources" by reducing population is to give up the foundation and get rid of the end point. Brazil is rich in natural resources and has a good climate, with an area of 85 1 0,000 square kilometers, which is equivalent to 9 1% in the United States, 89% in China and a population of10.90 billion, which is only equivalent to 63% in the United States and 4.6% in China. However, the level of social development is basically the same as that of China, and China is also facing problems in its development.

6. Because the negative impact of population is direct, many "people of insight" complain about overpopulation and suggest controlling population. Now many demographers claim to reduce the population of China to 700 million, 500 million or 300 million. In 2005, there were 700 million people born after China 1970, 500 million people born after 1978 and 300 million people born after 1988. No children are born now. If the life expectancy is 76 years in the future, the population of China will be reduced to 700 million, 500 million and 300 million in 2046, 2054 and 2064 respectively. But by that time, the youngest women will be 465,438+0 years old, 49 years old and 59 years old, basically losing their fertility. Then the Chinese nation will be basically extinct around 2085. Improving living standards at the expense of sharply reducing population size and giving birth to abnormal population structure is tantamount to addiction and death. Needless to say, the population of China has been reduced to 700 million, even 300 million, even tens of millions. In order to ensure the existing quality of life, the existing non-renewable resources (such as oil) can only last for decades or hundreds of years. If we look at resources from the perspective of globalization, even if China doesn't have children, it will only take several decades to save resources for other countries. Therefore, there is only one way for human survival and development: to develop new resources (including renewable resources) by relying on scientific and technological progress, and to reduce expenditure is not as good as to open up resources, while scientific and technological progress relies on a high-quality population with sufficient quantity and reasonable structure.

7. From a global perspective, environmental pollution is not as serious as people think. Since 1960s, the overall ecological environment of China has been improving. However, the urban environment in China is indeed deteriorating, on the one hand, because of the extensive development model, and on the other hand, because of the urbanization in China. At present, 200-300 million young migrant workers are just overtures, which is the largest migration tide in human history. China has become the world's factory and the world's construction site, and this process is bound to be accompanied by the deterioration of the urban environment (if we take the road of refinement, modern science and technology can ensure that China will reduce the environmental deterioration to an acceptable level, and the "London fog and haze" incident of the industrial revolution in Europe will not happen). Even if we don't have children now, if the population is urbanized now, the environmental problems will be equally serious. The current environmental pollution in China is largely passed on by the international community. Family planning does not help to improve the natural environment, but it seriously pollutes the human environment.

8. The introduction of the family planning policy is very hasty and has not been scientifically demonstrated. All the predictions in those years failed (for example, 1980 predicted that "the phenomenon of aging will not appear until 40 years later at the earliest", but it actually entered the aging stage in 1999). Comparing the HDI of China and India, it is found that family planning has no contribution to the economic and social development of China. Amartya Sen, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, reached the same conclusion by comparing the per capita P of China and India. Family planning is ineffective at present and harmful to the future: inducing China to take the deformed and extensive development model of "material first" and weakening the sustainable development ability of material reproduction; Increasing the cost of childbearing and reducing the willingness to have children will make China enter the era of being unable to raise children ahead of time and weaken the sustainable development ability of population reproduction; Accelerating the aging of the population leads to "getting old before getting rich", which makes it difficult to establish a reasonable social security system in China (at present, there are 9 working-age people in China corresponding to 1 elderly; In the future, there will be two working-age population corresponding to 1 elderly population), which will make urbanization lag behind and reduce innovation ability and labor productivity; Waist cutting depends on improving the traditional culture and ethics of family structure; Completely change the ethnic structure of the world and China (the proportion of China population in the world dropped from 22% in 1980 to 19% in 2005, and will soon drop to 15%, and then continue to decline rapidly. Demographers such as Li Xiaoping believe that the world should continue to drop to 3%; In the five years from 2000 to 2005, ethnic minorities accounted for 42% of the new population in China); Improve the sex ratio at birth; Reduce the quality of the population (especially the psychological quality); Increase family risks (about 400,000-500,00010.5 years old children die every year in China, and a large number of children are disabled due to injuries); Labor shortage occurred in China before the completion of the first industrial revolution (unique in human history), which seriously hindered the transformation of industrial structure in the future; Reduce the national defense potential and threaten the border security of China; Intensified the contradiction between cadres and masses; Destroyed the international image of China; Threaten social stability and endanger sustainable development. Nightmares wake up in the morning, but it will be a long night for China people to wake up from nightmares. Three generations of gentlemen. The population problem is a time bomb, and the problems exposed now are only the tip of the iceberg (for example, only 40 million elderly people enjoy pensions at present, but social security has already gone wrong). As time goes on, the problem will become clearer and more serious. Just over 20 years later, more than 400 million elderly people are waiting to retire, and 40 million young and middle-aged bachelors are facing imprisonment without wives. If we don't make timely and decisive directional adjustment, it will seriously affect the sustainable development of China and shake the foundation of the country. The country is rich when young people are rich, and the country is strong when young people are strong, but the Chinese nation is aging rapidly and has reached the most dangerous time!

9. Population determines consumption, consumption determines demand, demand determines production, and production determines employment. With the decrease of population and consumption, where can there be employment? Family planning leads to abnormal family structure, shrinking families, maintaining basic household consumption with less income, resulting in wage growth lagging behind economic growth, making administrative costs (from 1.978 times in 2004 to 1.000 times), monopoly enterprises and capital taking most of ***P, and the proportion of wage income in China is declining. Now, under this "parasitic economy" mode, it will inevitably curb normal consumption, increase the space for corruption, widen the gap between the rich and the poor, and also bring huge profits to the real estate, education and medical industries, resulting in shrinking consumption, cheap export products, high dependence on the international market, controlled economy (China's "demographic dividend" is enjoyed all over the world, but China people can't enjoy it), insufficient domestic demand leads to sluggish employment, and people's living pressure increases. If 1980 completely stops family planning, the bottom line of family demand will be raised, and the proportion of wages in ***P will be forced to increase exponentially. Although there are more children, the labor participation rate of women will decrease (which can also alleviate the employment pressure; At present, China's female labor participation rate ranks 17 in the world, but the family living standard is higher than now, and the relationship between consumption and production tends to be reasonable, which greatly increases the employment capacity; Among the super-born population, only about 30 million (no more than 50 million) born in the early 1980 s entered the labor market, which is not high compared with the current working population of more than 900 million, and has little impact on the current employment. What is lacking now is the labor force of this age group, which means that the 20-year-old population basically does not compete with the 50-year-old population for jobs. Nowadays, college students can't find jobs, mainly because of the expansion of university enrollment. The number of college students increased fivefold from 1998 to 2006. Such a great leap forward will bring employment pressure in any country. Regardless of the expansion of population structure, many colleges and universities will go bankrupt in the future because of insufficient students.

10. Due to the declining fertility desire, the annual population growth in China during the Ninth Five-Year Plan and the Tenth Five-Year Plan period was less than two thirds of the expected. The fifth population census in 2000 found that the fertility rate had dropped to an extremely dangerous 1.2- 1.3, which was also confirmed by the 2005 annual population sampling survey and the 1% population sampling survey. This can also be proved by the sharp drop of primary school students and the closure of a large number of primary schools in recent years. Now low inertia growth is a precursor to a sharp decline in population. But because it involves interests and power, family planning is like wearing magic red dancing shoes, and it can't stop at all. The Family Planning Commission and some demographers will calculate the annual birth population at about 50%, thus modifying the objective survey fertility rate 1.2- 1.3 to 1.8. China's population fog is a kind of "artificial fog". China's population policy remains unchanged under the suggestion of the National Population Development Strategy Research Report. The report predicts that the population of China will reach 654.38+0.5 billion in 2033 under the existing policies. According to this forecast, the population needs to increase by more than 6.5438+0.3 million in 2006, but the data of the National Bureau of Statistics shows that it will only increase by 6.92 million (actually, it may only increase by two or three million). According to the Report, "in the next 30 years, the national average total fertility rate should be maintained at around 1.8. Too high or too low is not conducive to the coordinated development of population and social economy. " The central government has repeatedly stressed the need to "stabilize the low fertility level" rather than reducing the fertility rate. According to the data of National Bureau of Statistics, the population of China reached 654.38+300 million on October 6th, 2005. Zhang Weiqing said in June 2005 that "according to the current total fertility rate of 1.8, the total population of China will reach1.300 million in 20 10". It means that if the fertility rate is stable at 1.8, then from 2005 to 20 10, the population needs to increase by11670,000 every six years. However, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the population growth in 2005 was only 7.68 million, and in 2006 it was 6.92 million. This shows that the Family Planning Commission has no ability to stabilize the fertility rate, and the fertility rate in China cannot be stabilized at 1.8, but it is much lower than 1.8. The actual population of China at the end of 2005 was only about 654.38+0.25 billion, which was not as claimed by the National Bureau of Statistics. At present, there are about120,000 births and about10,000 deaths every year. With the accumulation of the elderly population, the death toll will increase sharply, and the population of China is close to negative growth. If the current population policy is continued, it will be difficult to reach the peak population of China even if it is 654.38+ 0.3 billion, and it is impossible to reach 654.38+0.4 billion, not to mention the 654.38+claimed by the Family Planning Commission and some demographers.

1 1. The game of all ethnic groups is the game of fertility culture in the final analysis. China has become the country with the largest population thanks to the traditional fertility culture (family culture). There are three kinds of unfilial, and there are great reasons for not having a son. Isn't the "sustainable development" proposed by the state the fragrance of national and ethnic significance? Family incense can't be passed down, can the incense of the country and the nation be passed down? According to the current "scientific" standards, China's traditional culture undoubtedly has many defects, but it has successfully continued our national civilization and population (while many other civilizations have died out one after another); Under the condition of ancient productive forces, human reproduction is equivalent to emergency hedging. If the current "perfect and fair" culture and system are adopted, even the population cannot continue, let alone others. However, industrialization has changed the traditional family model and shaken the two pillars of China's fertility culture (ancestral culture and ethical code culture), thus making the fertility rate in China cultural circle (Taiwan Province Province, Korean, Japanese, Singaporean, Hongkong and Macau) the lowest in the world. Comparing the declining trend of Japanese and Asian tigers' fertility rate with social development, after stopping family planning, the fertility rate in Chinese mainland can only be around 1.8 (far below the generation replacement level). Other parts of China cultural circle did not deliberately destroy the fertility culture, but only passively destroyed it; However, Chinese mainland's traditional fertility culture has been destroyed three times: a, the current economic system of material production and family model have dealt a blow to China cultural circle; B, socialist countries such as the Soviet Union take the initiative to crack down on traditional fertility culture; C. Decades of one-sided propaganda of family planning deliberately destroyed the fertility culture, and the population ceiling and ultra-low policy fertility rate formed the "flea crawling effect" of fertility psychology. Therefore, even if China stops family planning, it will not reach the fertility rate (about 1.8) of Japanese and Asian tigers at the current development level in China, which has been confirmed by many fertility desire surveys. The population problem is burning, and it is urgent. China's population policy needs a directional change, not a fine-tuning like "two children having children late". The task of rebuilding fertility culture and encouraging fertility will be very arduous.

12, a sound population structure is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition, for economic take-off, national rise and the establishment of a reasonable pension system; Abnormal population structure is a sufficient condition for economic recession. In recent years, the annual birth population in China has dropped to about 654.38+0.2 million (the number is far less than that in the 1960s), among which the number of girls is less than 6 million. India's annual birth population exceeds 24 million, including about120,000 girls. It means that in the future, India's material reproduction capacity (labor force) and population reproduction capacity (women of childbearing age) will be twice that of China. Now, under the circumstances of encouraging childbearing, the average woman in Hong Kong only has 0.95 children, and Taiwan Province Province and South Korea have 1. 1 child respectively (the development level of these areas is more than 20 years earlier than that of Chinese mainland; Chinese mainland's fertility culture has suffered multiple damages). If we just stop family planning and don't encourage fertility, we can't effectively curb the downward trend of fertility rate. If there are only 1.2 children per year for more than 5 million girls (less than 5 million women after deducting the infertile population) born in China, then the annual birth population is only more than 6 million, and the annual death population is nearly 20 million. Around 2040, more than 25 million people will die each year (1in the mid-1960s, more than 25 million people will be born each year), and for a long time, the population will decrease by more than 1000 million each year-an empty nest in a big country!