202 1 Transcript of the Press Conference on Financial Statistics in the Third Quarter

On June 5, 20021,10, the People's Bank of China held a press conference on financial statistics in the third quarter of 20021. Ruan, Director of the Survey and Statistics Department and spokesperson, Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department, and Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Markets Department attended and answered questions from reporters. Luo Yanfeng, deputy director and spokesman of the General Office of the People's Bank of China, presided over the press conference. The following is a written record:

Luo Yanfeng: Good afternoon, friends from the media. Welcome to today's third quarter financial statistics conference.

65438+1October 65438+March People's Bank of China released the third quarter financial statistics in official website and Guan Wei. After the release of the data, all sectors of society are very concerned about the economic situation in the third quarter and the trend of monetary policy in the next stage, hoping to get the interpretation of the central bank. Today, we are very pleased to invite Ms. Ruan, director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, Mr. Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department, and Mr. Zou Lan, director of the Financial Markets Department, to attend today's press conference to jointly answer your concerns.

Now please start asking questions.

Central Radio and Television General Station (Voice of Yang Guang Economy): What are the overall characteristics of current financial operation after the release of data in the third quarter?

Ruan: Since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has resolutely implemented the arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to a flexible, accurate, reasonable, moderate, steady and prudent monetary policy, maintained a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and enhanced the stability of total credit growth. From the data of the third quarter, the current financial operation is generally stable, the total financial volume is growing steadily, the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale is basically matched with the nominal economic growth rate, and the macro leverage ratio remains stable.

First, the total financial volume has grown steadily and the liquidity is reasonable and abundant. The financial system insists on serving the real economy in a more prominent position, maintaining the steady growth of the total financial volume and maintaining the overall stability of the economy. At the end of September, the balance of M2 was 234.28 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, 0. 1 percentage point higher than the end of last month, and the balance of social financing scale was 308.05 trillion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage point lower than the end of last month. The growth rate of M2 and social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate.

Second, the total amount of credit grew steadily. Since the beginning of this year, the prudent monetary policy has maintained continuity, stability and sustainability, and enhanced the stability of total credit growth. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 16.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 462.4 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of September, the balance of RMB loans was 189.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 1.9%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the end of last month and remained basically stable.

Third, the macro leverage ratio is basically stable. Since the beginning of this year, China has promoted epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development as a whole, effectively implemented macro policies, continued the economic recovery trend, and the total financial volume has grown steadily, and the macro leverage ratio has remained basically stable. In the first half of this year, China's macro leverage ratio was 274.9%, down 4.5 percentage points from the end of last year. The leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises, government and household departments decreased by 3. 1, 1 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, all of which decreased to varying degrees. Judging from the economic recovery and debt growth in the third quarter, it is expected that the macro leverage ratio will remain basically stable in the third quarter.

Shanghai securities news: What are the structural characteristics of the growth of social financing scale in the first three quarters?

Ruan: In the first three quarters, the scale of social financing increased by 24.75 trillion yuan, 4.87 trillion yuan less than the same period of last year and 4. 14 trillion yuan more than the same period of 20 19. Generally speaking, financial support for the real economy is in line with economic development. View structure:

First, financial institutions' credit support for the real economy has not diminished. In the first three quarters, RMB loans issued by financial institutions to the real economy increased by 16.83 trillion yuan, an increase of14 billion yuan year-on-year.

Second, the financing of government bonds and corporate bonds returned to normal, and stock financing increased year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the net financing of national debt was 4.42 trillion yuan, 2.32 trillion yuan less than the same period of last year and 427.6 billion yuan more than the same period of 20 19. In the first three quarters, the net financing of corporate bonds was 2.43 trillion yuan, 1.66 trillion yuan less than the same period last year, which was basically the same as the same period of 20 19. In the first three quarters, domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises was 8 142 billion yuan, 204.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year.

Third, off-balance-sheet financing has decreased more. In the first three quarters, off-balance-sheet financing such as entrusted loans, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 1.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 trillion yuan.

US International Market News Agency: With the process of downsizing of the Federal Reserve becoming more and more obvious, how should China's macro policies, especially monetary policies, respond? Thank you.

Sun Guofeng: We have noticed the recent stance of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. The market expects that the Fed may start to reduce its bond purchases before the end of this year. From the perspective of China, we have implemented a normal monetary policy since we responded to the epidemic in 2020. After May 2020, the monetary policy gradually returned to normal, and this year it basically returned to the normal state before the epidemic. Since the beginning of this year, taking into account the changes in the international economic and financial market environment and the possible monetary policy adjustments in major economies, the People's Bank of China has made forward-looking policy arrangements to reduce the possible spillover effects of central bank policy adjustments in developed economies such as the Federal Reserve. At present, China's financial market is running smoothly, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds is around 2.95%, which is generally at a low level. Cross-border capital flows are basically balanced, and the RMB exchange rate floats in both directions, maintaining basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level. At the end of September, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.49 yuan, an appreciation of 0.6% compared with the end of 2020. The CFETS RMB exchange rate index appreciated by 5% compared with the end of 2020.

In the next stage, a prudent monetary policy will be flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate, focusing on ourselves, taking the first step of stabilizing words, adjusting across cycles, and making overall consideration of policy convergence this year and next. The People's Bank of China will comprehensively use various monetary policy tools to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity and enhance the stability of total credit growth. Continue to release the effect of LPR reform, stabilize the debt cost of banks, and promote the comprehensive financing cost of small and micro enterprises to stabilize and decline. Give full play to the role of structural monetary policy tools, guide financial institutions to increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises, green development and other key areas and weak links, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, play the role of exchange rate adjustment macro-economy and balance of payments automatic stabilizer, guide market participants to establish the concept of risk neutrality, strengthen macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows, and maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

Nihon Keizai Shimbun: This year's China Financial Stability Report emphasizes that "the centralized management system of real estate loans has entered the normal implementation stage". Recently, the property market in several cities has cooled down. Economic growth is also slowing down. Excuse me, if the economic growth slows down further in the future, is it possible for the central bank to temporarily relax the management of real estate credit?

Zou Lan: Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the central government has insisted that houses should be used for living, not for speculation, and that real estate should not be used as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, so as to stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and accelerate the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism. While preventing and resolving the risk of "grey rhinoceros" in real estate and realizing the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, it has also effectively promoted the adjustment of China's economic structure and high-quality development, and reduced the overall financial risk level. The central government's strategy and policy on real estate regulation and control is a long-term follow-up for us to do well in real estate finance.

From the data point of view, in the first three quarters of this year, the amount of personal housing loans remained stable, which basically matched the sales amount of commercial housing in the same period. Among them, housing prices in a few cities have risen too fast, personal housing loans have been restricted to some extent, and the rate of housing price increase has been suppressed. After housing prices stabilize, the relationship between mortgage supply and demand in these cities will also return to normal. Recently, the risks of some large-scale housing enterprises have been exposed, and the risk appetite of financial institutions for the real estate industry has dropped significantly, resulting in a consistent contraction, and the growth rate of real estate development loans has dropped significantly. This short-term overreaction is a normal market phenomenon. After Baoshang Bank went out of danger on 20 19 and Yongmei and Brilliance defaulted on their debts last year, similar phenomena also appeared in the interbank market and credit bond market.

In addition, some financial institutions have some misunderstandings about the "three-line and four-file" financing management rules of 30 pilot real estate enterprises, and will require that the balance of interest-bearing liabilities of "red-file" enterprises should not be increased. It is misunderstood that banks are not allowed to issue new development loans, and after enterprises repay loans with sales income, newly started projects that should be reasonably supported can not get loans, which also causes some enterprises to have a tight capital chain to some extent.

In view of these situations, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission held a real estate finance forum at the end of September to guide the major banks to accurately grasp and implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, maintain the smooth and orderly delivery of real estate credit, and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

Securities Times: A large-scale MLF expired in the fourth quarter. How will the central bank deal with this maturity pressure? And how does the central bank predict whether liquidity will face large fluctuations in the fourth quarter? Including the recent reduction of the Federal Reserve's bond purchase program, have you observed the pressure of capital outflow in China?

Sun Guofeng: Since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has implemented a prudent monetary policy, and comprehensively used various monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction, refinancing, rediscount, medium-term lending facilities, and open market operations to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the money market and stable interest rates. In the first nine months of this year, the average repo rate of deposit-taking financial institutions in the inter-bank market was 2. 18%, which was very close to the 7-day repo rate of 2.2% operated by the central bank in the open market.

In the fourth quarter, the liquidity supply and demand of the banking system will remain basically balanced, and there will be no major fluctuations. With regard to the phased influencing factors such as the issuance of government bonds, tax payment, and convenient maturity of medium-term loans, the People's Bank of China will comprehensively consider the liquidity situation and the needs of financial institutions, flexibly use various monetary policy tools such as convenient medium-term loans and open market operations, timely and appropriately release liquidity of different maturities, smooth short-term fluctuations, meet the reasonable capital needs of financial institutions, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. At the same time, the implementation of structural monetary policy tools will also play a certain role in increasing the total liquidity.

Recently, the People's Bank of China has also promoted the reform of the operation mode of the Standing Loan Facility (SLF) and realized the electronic operation of the whole process in an orderly manner, which is conducive to improving the operation efficiency of SLF, stabilizing market expectations, enhancing the stability of liquidity in the banking system and maintaining the smooth operation of interest rates in the money market.

In recent years, the People's Bank of China has improved the framework of liquidity and market interest rate regulation, improved the transparency of operation, stabilized market expectations through monetary policy operation and expectation management, effectively reduced the preventive liquidity demand of financial institutions, and continuously reduced the total liquidity and excess reserve ratio required to maintain the smooth operation of money market interest rates. Subsequently, the People's Bank of China will continue to pay close attention to various factors affecting the supply and demand of liquidity, maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity, guide the money market interest rate to run smoothly around the central bank's open market operating interest rate, and provide a good liquidity environment for high-quality economic development.

Bloomberg News: The debt crisis of Evergrande Group has attracted wide attention from investors at home and abroad. How to treat the credit risk faced by China banks to real estate enterprises? Are you worried about systemic risks?

Zou Lan: The total assets of Evergrande Group exceed 2 trillion, of which real estate development projects account for about 60%, and more than 1,000 subsidiaries involved in/kloc-0 are independent legal persons. In recent years, this company has been poorly managed and failed to operate prudently according to the changes in the market situation. But blindly diversified expansion, leading to a serious deterioration of business and financial indicators, and finally the risk broke out.

Among the total liabilities of Evergrande Group, financial liabilities are less than one third. Creditors are also scattered, and the risk exposure of a single financial institution is not large. On the whole, its risk spillover to the financial industry is controllable.

At present, relevant departments and local governments are handling and resolving risks according to the principles of rule of law and marketization, urging Evergrande Group to intensify asset disposal, speed up the restoration of project construction and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers. In this process, the financial department will cooperate with the housing and urban-rural construction departments and local governments to provide financial support for the project to resume work.

The problem of Evergrande Group is an individual phenomenon in the real estate industry. After the macro-control of real estate in recent years, especially after the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism, the land price, house price and expectation of the domestic real estate market have remained stable, most real estate enterprises are operating steadily, their financial indicators are good, and the real estate industry is generally healthy.

Caixin: How are the supporting tools for carbon emission reduction made? When and in what form is it expected to land?

Sun Guofeng: Everyone is very concerned about carbon emission reduction support tools. According to the deployment of the the State Council executive meeting, the People's Bank of China is stepping up the establishment of carbon emission reduction support tools. Carbon emission reduction support tool is a structural monetary policy tool, which aims to help achieve the goal of peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality. The People's Bank of China provides low-cost funds to support financial institutions to provide preferential interest rate financing for key projects with significant carbon emission reduction effects. In order to ensure accuracy, carbon emission reduction support tools support three key areas: clean energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, and carbon emission reduction technologies. In order to ensure direct access, the direct access mechanism is adopted. Financial institutions make their own decisions and bear their own risks, and provide loans to enterprises in key areas of carbon emission reduction. After that, you can apply to the People's Bank of China for financial support of carbon emission reduction support tools, and publicly disclose relevant information on carbon emission reduction according to the requirements of the People's Bank of China and accept social supervision. The People's Bank of China will steadily and orderly promote the implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools, pay attention to the leverage effect, and incite more social funds to promote carbon emission reduction.

It should be emphasized that carbon emission reduction support tools support key areas of carbon emission reduction through "addition" and support investment and construction in key areas such as clean energy, thus increasing the overall energy supply capacity, rather than "subtraction". Financial institutions should still give reasonable credit support to coal-fired power plants, coal enterprises and projects in accordance with the principles of marketization, rule of law and commercialization, and should not blindly lend or cut off loans, and give full play to the supporting role of finance in energy security and supply security, green and low-carbon transformation, etc.

Xinhua News Agency: What are the new changes in the credit structure in the third quarter? What are the new highlights?

Ruan: The People's Bank of China conscientiously implements the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, flexibly uses various policy tools, and constantly guides financial institutions to increase financial support for key areas of the national economy. From the actual investment of loans, at the end of September, the balance of medium-and long-term loans in all industries was 67.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%. This growth rate is 3.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all local and foreign currency loans in the same period. Among them, the balance of medium and long-term loans in manufacturing, infrastructure and service industries except real estate increased by 37.8%, 65,438+06.4% and 65,438+07.2% respectively, which were 2.6, 2.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year, and all maintained rapid growth rates.

Judging from the financing situation of small and micro enterprises in Pratt & Whitney, the loans of small and micro enterprises in Pratt & Whitney maintained a high growth trend and continued to maintain the characteristics of "increasing the quantity, expanding the area, reducing the price and optimizing the structure". Judging from the increase in volume, at the end of September, the balance of Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans increased by 27.4% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rate of various loans 15.5 percentage points. In terms of expansion, at the end of September, Pratt & Whitney Small and Micro Loans supported 40.92 million small and micro business entities, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%. Just now, Director Sun also mentioned that the financing cost of small and micro enterprises has steadily decreased. From the data point of view, the interest rate of new Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise loans in September was 4.89%, which was 0. 19 percentage points lower than that in 65438+February of the previous year. In terms of structural optimization, at the end of September, credit loans accounted for 17.4% of Pratt & Whitney micro loans, an increase of two percentage points over the end of last year.

At the same time, we also noticed that the credit structure showed new highlights in the third quarter. Finance has made great progress in supporting new kinetic energy, new industries and new formats. Financial resources are inclined to the national "specialized and innovative" enterprises, and the loan momentum of "specialized and innovative" enterprises is good. First, the loan ratio of "specialized and innovative" enterprises is relatively high. At the end of September, the loan ratio of "innovative" enterprises was 7 1.9%, and the average household loan balance was 75.82 million yuan. Second, the loan balance grew steadily and the cost continued to decline. At the end of September, the loan balance of "specialized and innovative" enterprises increased by 18.2% year-on-year, which was 6.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all loans, and the average interest rate of loan contracts was 4.52%, which was 0. 15 and 0.25 percentage points lower than the end of last year and the same period of last year respectively.

At present, while the financial system is constantly strengthening its support for key industries and small enterprises, it is also strengthening its support for "specialized and innovative" enterprises. The continuous optimization of credit structure will promote high-quality economic development.

Hong Kong Economic Herald: We have noticed that the overseas dollar bond prices of many real estate companies have recently fallen. What is the attitude of the central bank?

Zou Lan: Recently, due to risk events such as bond default of individual real estate enterprises, the price of US dollar bonds of overseas real estate enterprises has fallen sharply, which is a natural reaction of the market after the default event, and there are also many cases in history. For example, some time ago, after Huarong Group took risks, the market risk aversion rose sharply, and even the stock prices and bond prices of other asset management companies fell, making it difficult to refinance. With Huarong's successful introduction of war investment in August, the discount on overseas bonds narrowed rapidly and market sentiment was restored.

At present, the relevant departments have paid attention to the changes in the dollar debt market of overseas real estate enterprises, and will urge bond issuing enterprises and their shareholders to strictly abide by market discipline and rules, properly handle their own debt problems in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law, and actively fulfill their statutory debt repayment obligations.

We have also noticed that some China real estate enterprises have started to buy back overseas bonds, which reflects their confidence in their own development prospects and is expected to play a positive role in easing market tension and restoring market confidence.

American Consumer News and Business Channel: My question is about some recent power outages. Many economists have made predictions and prospects for China's economy. How does the central bank view this matter?

Sun Guofeng: Recently, we have also noticed the situation of power rationing, including the recent price increase. We believe that from the end of this year to next year, the increase of PPI in China will tend to decline. For the impact of CPI in China, CPI may go up, but it will remain in a reasonable range. Generally speaking, inflation in China is generally controllable. Therefore, in the next stage, the People's Bank of China will adhere to the normal monetary policy, focusing on ourselves and keeping the word steady. A prudent monetary policy is flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate. Grasp the strength and rhythm of the policy and stabilize social expectations.

China Business News: I noticed that the September CPI and PPI data released yesterday showed that the scissors difference between CPI and PPI reached 10 percentage point, a record high, which attracted market attention. At the same time, I also noticed that the means of production and living within PPI also increased year-on-year, which put pressure on the production costs of small and medium-sized enterprises. Is it possible that the market expects the central bank to lower the RRR again in the fourth quarter to support the development of SMEs? What do you think of this phenomenon? Is there room for RRR reduction in the fourth quarter?

Sun Guofeng: As I just introduced, PPI may remain high in the near future. However, considering that China is a major producer in the world with strong economic self-sufficiency, most of the energy products supplied by enterprises are guaranteed by long-term agreements, and the import impact of rising international commodity prices and rising inflation in various countries can be controlled, it is still a stage that PPI is still at a high level. With the recovery of global supply, the improvement of transportation efficiency and the emergence of high base utility, it is expected that PPI will tend to fall back from the end of this year to next year.

As CPI said just now, we expect CPI to go up, but it will continue to be within the target range expected at the beginning of the year. Of course, this process will have some impact on some downstream SMEs, and we can also see that various departments have taken many measures to support SMEs to meet the challenges. From the People's Bank of China's point of view, we have also introduced many measures, including the newly added 300 billion yuan small re-loan quota in the early stage, and the RRR cut in early July, all in order to increase financial support for SMEs. From the perspective of liquidity, the People's Bank of China should maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. From the whole fourth quarter, the situation of liquidity supply and demand should be basically balanced. The People's Bank of China will comprehensively use various monetary policy tools to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity and keep the interest rate in the money market running smoothly.

Zou Lan: Let me add. Because of the complex economic situation, small and micro enterprises are often under the greatest pressure. Just now, this media friend also mentioned the situation of small and micro enterprises, and Director Sun also answered. I also want to take this opportunity to introduce more information about financial support for small and micro enterprises.

Since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has resolutely implemented the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the combination of long and short, addressed both the symptoms and root causes, continued to deepen financial support to stabilize enterprises and ensure employment, and implemented two direct monetary policy tools. We will carry out two special activities to improve the financial service ability of small and medium-sized enterprises and financial support for the development of individual industrial and commercial households, optimize the local financing environment, and guide more financial resources to flow to small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. From the effect point of view, the effectiveness of the two direct monetary policy tools is still being further exerted, and the financing of small and micro enterprises continues to maintain a good trend of "quantity increase, area expansion and price reduction". At the end of the third quarter, the balance of Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans was 18.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. Support more than 40 million small and micro business entities, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year. In September, the average loan interest rate of small and micro enterprises with a new single loan of less than 6.5438+million yuan was 4.89%, which was 0. 19 percentage points lower than the end of last year. From last year to the end of September this year, the national banking financial institutions issued a total of 13.5 trillion yuan of loan principal and interest repayment, including 1 1. 1 trillion yuan to support small and medium-sized enterprises and 8.6 trillion yuan of all-inclusive micro-credit loans.

In view of the difficulties faced by small and micro enterprises, such as high commodity prices, rising production and operation costs, increasing accounts receivable, and epidemic situation, the the State Council executive meeting on September 1 arranged to increase assistance to market players, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. On September 7, Vice President Pan also introduced the specific arrangements for financial work at the the State Council policy briefing. The People's Bank of China will strengthen the implementation of various policies to benefit enterprises and further enhance the sense of financing for small and micro enterprises.

Here mainly includes several items:

First, pay close attention to the implementation of the new 300 billion micro-loan policy introduced by Secretary Sun just now. Second, we will continue to give full play to the effectiveness of the credit loan policy supporting the repayment of small and micro loans, make good use of refinancing funds, guide banks to issue more credit loans for small and micro loans, and coordinate policy continuity. The third is to carry out in-depth projects to improve the financial service capabilities of small and medium-sized enterprises, support small and medium-sized banks to issue special financial bonds for small and medium-sized enterprises, and broaden the sources of microfinance funds. Guide banks to continue to optimize internal resource allocation and assessment and incentive mechanisms, strengthen the use of scientific and technological means such as the Internet and big data, and promote the model of active credit granting and active loan repayment. Further improve the long-term mechanism of dare to lend, willing to lend, able to lend and willing to lend. The fourth is to support the supply chain financing of small and micro enterprises. On the basis of settlement with relevant departments, we will promote large enterprises to replace other forms of accounts with commercial bills, guide financial institutions to expand the acceptance and discount of commercial bills, and support and alleviate the pressure faced by small and micro enterprises due to capital occupation through rediscount and other tools.

Luo Yanfeng: Thank you to the three release guests today, and to the media friends present today. Thank you.