American aid to the Ukrainian "Patriots" is in great trouble.

The U.S. Biden administration recently approved the provision of Patriot air defense and anti-missile systems to Ukraine, which is regarded as a major breakthrough in U.S. military assistance to Ukraine and represents the beginning of providing the most advanced weapons and equipment for the United States. But not long after Ukraine celebrated, the US Congress poured cold water on it.

The website of the US Military Watch magazine 65438+1October 2 said that the report submitted by the US Congressional Research Service warned that Ukraine should not expect to use one of the most advanced air defense systems in the United States before 2024. To make matters worse, the Pentagon has not confirmed where the "Patriot" system to aid Ukraine came from. The report also urges U.S. lawmakers to conduct an audit because they are worried that the transfer from active service will directly affect the current missile defense capability of the U.S. military.

According to the report, although the Biden administration has approved the provision of the Patriot air defense and anti-missile system to Ukraine, its details have been vague and it is now facing a series of extensive and realistic problems.

First of all, where did the Patriot system provided to Ukraine come from?

Although the patriot system is advanced, it is not so fast to produce. Because the Pentagon is in urgent need of missile defense, the production schedule of Patriot missiles is already full, and it is impossible for Ukraine to get a brand-new Patriot system.

The Congressional Research Service stressed that the specific source of the "Patriot" system to aid Ukraine is still unclear, and therefore urged members to conduct a review. The report warned: "The air defense system and related interceptor missiles sent to Ukraine may come from the active forces and stocks of the US military. If it is transferred from combat troops, such as the troops under the US Central Command or the Indo-Pacific Command, to Ukraine, it may cause potential risks in these war zones. It is even more infeasible to transfer directly from the United States because it will hinder the relevant training and modernization cycle of the US military. "

It's not hard to understand. In recent years, the United States has paid special attention to strengthening its own missile defense capability because it is worried about the increasingly powerful missile capability of "equal opponents". For this reason, in 20 18, despite various criticisms at home and abroad, the US military insisted on deploying several Patriot systems from the Middle East to other regions, "to better cope with the threats from Russia and China". So far, the Patriot system has not been deployed in Guam, the Pacific land of the United States, which is largely related to the insufficient number of anti-missile systems related to the US military.

In this context, if the Biden administration wants to "harm others but not benefit itself" and transfer the "Patriot" system from the US military to help Ukraine, it will obviously make Congress angry.

Secondly, even if we use a set of "patriots" to help Ukraine, how useful will it be?

According to reports, the Patriot system is extremely expensive. The cost of a new Patriot system is about 1 65,438+0 billion US dollars, including a launching system worth about 400 million US dollars and an interceptor missile worth 690 million US dollars. The average price of each missile is about $4 million. In contrast, the cost of cheap suicide drones widely used by the Russian army is only a few thousand dollars, even for cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, the cost is about 6.5438+0 million dollars. It is not cost-effective to intercept these targets using the Patriot system.

Data map of Russian suicide drone attacking Kiev

What's more, considering that the total value of US military assistance to Ukraine is usually about $654.38 billion each time, the White House has actually approved a "Patriot" system to help Ukraine despite its fierce rhetoric. Considering that the urban area of Kiev is about 827 square kilometers, the maximum anti-missile interception distance of Patriot -3 is 20-30 kilometers. In other words, the Patriot system provided by the United States can barely provide air defense protection for the Ukrainian capital, and has little impact on the entire Russian-Ukrainian conflict situation.

The report acknowledges that "it is estimated that only 65,438+0 Patriot system will be transported to Ukraine, which also raises serious questions about its effectiveness in intercepting Russian aircraft and missiles, especially considering its poor combat record in other battlefields."

In addition, when it can be delivered is still far away.

Although it is speculated that the United States will deliver this Patriot system to Ukraine in the first half of 2023, the report mentioned that it takes nearly 1 year to train Ukrainian maintenance personnel. "Before Ukraine has 1 set of' Patriot' system in normal operation, there is still a lot of learning work to be done."

As a solution, it is speculated that after the Patriot system is delivered, the United States or other NATO countries may directly send active servicemen to provide maintenance and guidance, but the Russian Foreign Ministry claims that the United States has guaranteed that "the US military will not send personnel to the Patriot base in Ukraine". Another possibility is that the United States provides relevant combat services through private military contractors, but considering that these mercenaries do not have the official status of the US military, "Russia will have much less concerns about these positions."

The report acknowledges that with the rapid consumption of Ukrainian air defense missiles and the very small number of Patriot systems to be delivered, this means that they can only provide extremely limited air defense protection, and the fixed deployment mode of Patriot missiles may make this system very fragile in the Russian army.

Extended reading:

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine slides to 2023: Europe finds itself in the shadow of the United States.

On the 28th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered his annual State of the Union address in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine, summarizing the internal and external situation of Ukraine at this stage. Zelensky announced that Ukraine has become "one of the global leaders" and praised Ukraine for helping westerners find themselves. "Because of our unity, we have achieved the goal that few people in this world dare to believe." Zelensky said that in this 10 month, "we helped western countries find themselves and enable them to return to the international stage. No one in the West is afraid of Russia any more and will never be afraid of Russia. "

At the same time, it is reported that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine not only makes European countries "rally" against Russia as never before, but also makes European countries "rely on the United States as never before".

Europe: "led by the nose" by the United States

Dependence on the United States in many ways

In fact, before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European countries' views on Russia were not completely consistent: France, Germany and other countries advocated more contacts with Russia, while Poland and other countries with closer relations with Russia thought it necessary to take a tougher attitude toward Russia. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, European countries seem to have a common goal, that is, Ukraine must be armed against Russia. Although European countries have the same goal, they soon find themselves in the shadow of Washington and can only be led by Washington.

According to the analysis, Zelensky chose Washington for his first visit after the conflict broke out, which fully showed that Ukraine relied heavily on US military assistance.

It is reported that US President Biden is expected to sign a bill worth 45 billion US dollars, including assistance to Ukraine and NATO allies. The analysis believes that this move emphasizes the dominant position of the United States in aiding Ukraine. In fact, the EU has been providing assistance to Ukraine. Earlier this month, the European Council agreed to provide Ukraine with a loan of 654.38+08 billion euros. However, the report pointed out that despite this, European countries can only get hints from Washington on the core issues related to Ukraine in the future, such as how many weapons Ukraine should acquire and how many weapons the West transports to Ukraine will have the risk of escalating the conflict.

According to reports, Finnish Prime Minister sanna Marin said during his visit to Australia on February 2 12 that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exposed Europe's weaknesses and strategic mistakes in facing Russia, and Europe still relies on the United States in maintaining its own security.

Belfo, head of Carnegie Europe, a Brussels think tank, concluded that if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is compared to a complex band, then the United States must be the conductor of this band.

The report pointed out that in recent years, from the global financial crisis to the immigration problem, from Britain's withdrawal from the EU to the global spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the EU has been under constant attack, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is undoubtedly the latest impact on this land. According to the report, in view of the complicated process of dealing with problems within the EU, the EU's decision on economic assistance to Ukraine may be delayed or even put on hold for a long time, while Kiev has to rely on US assistance to support its budget. In the mid-term elections in the United States, it is reported that Europe is very worried that if the party wins the election, it may disintegrate the "Western United Front against Russia", because once there is a problem with American aid to Ukraine, it will be difficult for European countries to fill the funding hole.

In terms of military assistance, compared with the United States, European countries have relatively limited weapons reserves, which also makes Ukraine very dependent on American military assistance. According to the analysis, Zelensky chose Washington as his first visit after the conflict broke out, which fully illustrated this point.

Ukrainian intelligence official: Russia-Ukraine conflict is deadlocked

Russian Foreign Minister: Western policies have the risk of leading to direct armed conflicts among nuclear powers.

According to the report, some European allies of the United States are now beginning to worry that the cautious attitude of the Biden administration may lead to a long struggle between Ukraine and the European continent. Budanov, head of the Ukrainian intelligence agency, also said in an interview recently that at present, Ukraine and Russia have not made great progress for the time being, and the two sides are in a stalemate. He said that Ukraine is now waiting for Western allies to provide more advanced weapons.

Germany once insisted on complete nuclear abandonment in 2022. According to the data map reported by CCTV Finance 202 1,

Meanwhile, Paul Lin, director of the German Federal Radiation Protection Office, warned on Wednesday that German residents must be prepared for nuclear emergencies. Pauline warned that radiation would not stop at the border. "The conflict between Moscow and Kiev shows that we must be prepared for various nuclear emergencies." According to the report, Paul Lin also criticized those countries that have not eliminated nuclear energy. "Once these facilities have an accident, it may affect the whole of Europe." According to CCTV Finance 202 1, Germany insists on shutting down the last three nuclear power plants in 2022 and completing the complete nuclear abandonment. However, in view of the serious energy crisis in Europe, the German government approved the extension of the operation time of three nuclear power plants this year.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said a few days ago that the western policy aimed at comprehensively containing Russia is extremely dangerous and may lead to direct armed conflict between nuclear powers. Lavrov pointed out that irresponsible speculation about "Russia will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine" keeps appearing in the West, while Russia has repeatedly reiterated that there is no winner in nuclear war and "a nuclear war must never be launched". But at the same time, the rhetoric of western politicians on this issue is getting sharper and sharper. Russia is "deeply concerned" about the hype of the United States and the whole West around the topic of nuclear weapons.

Red star journalist Li

Tang Huan Editor Guo Yu