Observation｜Rescues and wins: China’s automobile industry rescued by “real money”

Observation | Repeated rescues and wins? Chinese automobiles "real money" to rescue the market

The epidemic has hit the global automobile industry hard, many countries have issued emergency assistance plans, and the Chinese automobile industry is gradually resuming work. A wave of intensive bailout policies was implemented.

A twists and turns of "Oolong" incident

On March 24, the Ministry of Commerce website announced that Beijing would release 100,000 new energy license plates in half a year. Less than a day later, The Beijing Commerce Bureau apologized on its official Weibo for the content published on the 24th that "Beijing is studying and introducing measures to stimulate automobile consumption."

After the information was released on the 24th, automobile stocks collectively rose by 4.62, with Great Wall Motors A shares and BAIC Blue Valley hitting the daily limit, and Yutong Bus, SAIC Group, and Changan Automobile collectively rose by more than 7. The reason behind the twists and turns of the "Oolong" incident is that China's auto market continues to decline, suppressed demand, license plates, purchase restrictions and other long-term consumption pain points.

According to the latest forecast from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, if the epidemic is effectively controlled by the end of March, production and sales are expected to fall by about 45% in the first quarter and about 25% in the first half of the year. CICC expects China's passenger car sales to decline by around 12.5% ??in 2020.

In view of the difficult reality of the auto market, national ministries and commissions and local governments have successively introduced a series of policies, pouring real money into the auto market in an attempt to revive the auto market and boost consumption information.

The cycle goes back and forth? Repeated rescues and repeated victories

We are no strangers to talking about automobile bailouts. There is a data that must be mentioned here. In 2009, China overtook the United States for the first time. The cumulative sales of the domestic automobile market reached 13.64 million units, a year-on-year increase of 46%, making it the world's largest automobile producer and consumer.

At the same time, what measures were taken to rescue the Chinese auto market in 2009?

On January 20, 2009, the measure of halving the purchase tax for models of 1.6 liters and below was officially implemented; in March, the national "cars going to the countryside" policy was officially implemented; in August, the national car trade-in program was launched again. Scale starts. At the same time, the state has delineated the "four big and four small" industries to encourage automobile mergers and reorganizations.

Throughout 2009, the Chinese government took multiple measures to rescue the market, which directly stimulated the Chinese auto market in 2009.

If you use "car" plus "bailout" as keywords in the search engine, you will find that the call for bailout has always been there, and there have always been policies. However, judging from the effects, several of the most critical focus issues remain. Difficult to solve. There are objective factors, such as the pressure from local governments on environmental protection and vehicle emissions, the pressure from traffic congestion, and other factors.

Whether it is OEMs, dealers, long upstream and downstream industrial chains, or final consumers, it is an indisputable fact that they have benefited from the bailout policy and promoted the overall development of China's automobile industry. Domestic passenger car monthly sales chart in 2020, the dotted line indicates the predicted value. The picture is from CICC Automobile

Policies have been intensively introduced? What is most in demand

After sorting out, the main rescue measures in various places are There are the following eight:

Easy purchase restrictions and increase number plates

Purchase tax exemption

Cars going to the countryside

Direct car purchase subsidies

Extend the transition period to the National VI Standards

Adjust travel restrictions

Cancel restrictions on the movement of second-hand cars

Delay the exit of new energy subsidies

Policies to rescue the market are mainly divided into two types of car markets: cities with purchase restrictions and cities without purchase restrictions. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities have all implemented car purchase restriction policies to varying degrees. Residents in these cities must first obtain quotas through lottery or auction to purchase a car.

Judging from the policies that have been introduced so far, the release of restricted license plates, the extension of National VI regulations, and the exemption of purchase tax are the measures that consumers are most vocal about and most eager to see.

1. In cities with purchase restrictions, increasing the issuance of license plates or even relaxing purchase restrictions is what consumers in cities with purchase restrictions need most. Among the provinces and cities that responded to the call this time, only Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou are cities with purchase restrictions, and It has set an example, but Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Hainan Province still have no corresponding policies.

Take Hangzhou as an example. On March 25, in accordance with the "Hangzhou Municipal Regulations on the Regulation and Management of the Total Volume of Passenger Cars", it was decided after research that Hangzhou would increase the number of passenger cars by 20,000 at a time in 2020.

2.? Purchase tax halving policy.

Data show that my country implemented the purchase tax halving policy in 2009-2010 and 2015-2016 respectively. After the implementation of the policies, they have achieved immediate results in the market.

As for the first point, analysts pointed out that among the seven provinces and cities with purchase restrictions, the demand is expected to exceed 8 million units. If this demand can be effectively transformed through policies, this will surely drive the automobile consumer market.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, said that increasing city purchase restriction indicators is the most direct and effective means. If the key measures to promote automobile consumption are to promote replacement demand but fail to effectively promote new purchase demand, they will have little impact on the total volume.

According to Cui Dongshu’s prediction, if the purchase tax halving policy is implemented in 2020, it may increase car sales by 2.59 million units.

On March 25, Chen Zepeng, deputy director of the Guangzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission, stated at the 53rd press conference on epidemic prevention and control held by the Information Office of the Guangzhou Municipal Government that the implementation details of policies to boost automobile consumption such as subsidies for new energy vehicles are being Make it quick.

"In crises, there are opportunities." For the Chinese auto market, which accounts for a quarter of global auto sales, China's rescue is to save itself and the global auto market. The introduction of relevant policies does not happen overnight. There is also a wave of bailout policies on the way.

Attached is a list (part) of the automobile market rescue efforts of relevant Chinese departments and local governments:

National ministries and commissions:

On March 23, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission The General Office of the Reform Commission and the General Office of the National Health Commission jointly issued a notice to support the resumption of business of commercial and distribution enterprises. Among them, item 6 expands traditional consumption, and item 2 clarifies that to stabilize automobile consumption, local commerce authorities must actively promote the introduction of new car purchase subsidies, automobile "trade-in" subsidies, cancel restrictions on pickup trucks entering cities, and promote convenient transactions of second-hand cars, etc. Measures,

On March 13, 23 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Consumption Expansion and Quality Improvement and Accelerating the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market" to all provinces and cities, proposing to promote automobile The purchase restriction policy has been transformed into a usage guidance policy, and areas with car purchase restrictions are encouraged to appropriately increase the car license plate limit.

On February 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on Orderly Promoting the Resumption of Work and Production of Industrial Communications Enterprises", which pointed out that it is necessary to actively stabilize traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles and encourage areas with automobile purchase restrictions to appropriately increase automobile license plates. quotas to drive consumption of automobiles and related products.

On February 20, the Ministry of Commerce also proposed in an online press conference to encourage areas with car purchase restrictions to appropriately increase car license plate quotas to drive car consumption.

Local Government:

On March 20, the 104th Executive Meeting of the 15th Guangzhou Municipal Government reviewed and approved in principle the "Several Measures to Promote Automobile Production and Consumption in Guangzhou". The COVID-19 epidemic has had the greatest impact on the automotive industry. In order to stabilize the automobile industry, Guangzhou has introduced new policies to boost new energy vehicle consumption, encourage vehicle upgrading, and create an automobile consumption environment. It proposes car purchase subsidies, bidding incentives, new cruise taxi indicators, and optimization of small and medium-sized passenger car indicators. Regulatory policies and other measures support the sustained and healthy development of the automobile industry, which is expected to boost the total output value to more than 20 billion yuan.

Zhejiang Province issued the "Implementation Opinions of the General Office of the Zhejiang Provincial People's Government on Boosting Consumption and Promoting Stable Economic Growth" (referred to as the "Opinions"). The "Opinions" encourage Hangzhou to relax car purchase restrictions in an orderly manner, formulate policies for replacing old cars with new ones and going to the countryside to benefit farmers, and deeply tap the potential of rural car consumption; Zhejiang Province will take advantage of its large car ownership, expand the circulation of second-hand car markets, and liberalize car modifications in accordance with the law. market, strive to tap the potential of automobile aftermarket services; innovate automobile consumer services, expand online and offline car purchase channels, encourage brand car dealers to provide online car viewing, car delivery and test drive and other services, and plan to hold a number of "Zheli Xing Online Car Buying Festival" "Waiting for promotions.

On March 25, in accordance with the "Hangzhou Municipal Regulations on the Regulation and Management of the Total Volume of Passenger Vehicles", it was decided after research that Hangzhou City will increase the quota of 20,000 passenger vehicles at one time in 2020.

Xiangtan City and Changsha City in Hunan Province also actively responded to the call and launched preferential measures for purchase subsidies. The new policy issued by Changsha to promote automobile consumption is more specific. It only targets the purchase of vehicles produced by local factories, and if the vehicle is registered and settled locally, a one-time subsidy of 3% of the naked vehicle price can be obtained.

On January 29, the People's Government of Foshan City, Guangdong Province issued the "Notice on Issuing Several Measures to Promote Consumption Upgrading in the Automobile Market in Foshan City (Trial)".

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.