In the 2008 U.S. election, is the Democratic Party stronger or the Democratic Party is more powerful?

Two weeks after the official start, the intensive primaries in the first four states failed to make the situation of the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party and the party's primary primaries in the 2008 U.S. presidential election any clearer-the golden, Silver and bronze medals were evenly distributed among the two major front-runners.

On the Democratic side, the 46-year-old Illinois U.S. Senator Obama, a political "dark horse" of mixed black and white descent, broke the situation where former first lady and New York U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton was firmly on the Diaoyutai. In the first primary election held on January 3, he won Iowa, a central agricultural state with a white population of 97, with 38 votes. Hillary not only trailed Obama by 9 percentage points, but also lost to Edwards, who originally ranked third, by a narrow margin, which surprised outside observers.

Obama’s campaign slogans of “change” and “hope” attracted a large number of young people and minority voters who had never participated in a grassroots caucus (caucus) before, changing the political climate of the Democratic primary. A new look.

However, just as the national media was immersed in Obama's miracle, Hillary changed her campaign strategy and relied on the support of female voters and union voters to defeat the predictions of almost all previous polls. On January 8 Unexpectedly, by a narrow margin of 39 to 36, he took back New Hampshire's individual vote primary from Obama.

The election situation for *** and the party’s primary election is also confusing. Throughout 2007, it was former New York Governor Giuliani who maintained the highest range of national public opinion ratings. But in 2008, Huckabee, the previously unknown former Arkansas governor, won Iowa’s grassroots caucus primary with the support of evangelical Christians; five days later, Arizona U.S. Senator Mike In New Hampshire, Kenn regained the glory of the primary election four years ago; on January 15, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney got his wish again, winning the favor of Michigan voters with his image as an "economic problem solver."

The weather in state polls changes rapidly, making national approval rankings meaningless. A situation that has not been seen in American history for many years—candidates from both parties failed to emerge as an absolute frontrunner in the early primaries in several states—has become the most dramatic scene of the 2008 election so far. A fierce battle is inevitable.

The duel between "experience" and "change"

The competition between Hillary and Obama is, in the final analysis, a duel between "experience" and "change." The debate itself has escalated over time.

Obama’s ability to shake Hillary’s status as the “unchallenged” frontrunner in the eyes of Democratic voters at the end of 2007 largely depended on his questioning of Hillary’s “experience”—the “Washington ” experience or the experience of civil rights? Is the experience at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue a capital or a liability? Will Hillary's carefully accumulated qualifications and connections pose an obstacle to future reforms?

Obama's wife Michelle quoted her father's motto - "Evaluate a person not by what he does on camera; but by what he does when no one is aware of it."

She said: After graduating from Columbia University, Obama chose to work as an organizer in the poorest black community on the south side of Chicago; after graduating from Harvard Law School, he chose to go to the University of Chicago to teach constitutional law. After Hillary graduated from Yale Law School, she chose to work as a lawyer and partner in a private law firm.

Before the Iowa primaries, Obama achieved a breakthrough in his approval ratings by relying on his image as an idealist as a "unifier" rather than a "divisor." He not only advocates uniting Americans of different ethnic groups, uniting the Democratic Party and the Communist Party, but also advocates sitting at the same table with friends and enemies of the United States and negotiating.

For those voters who are struggling between idealism and realism, Obama's campaign slogan "We cannot be cynicistic, do not deny ourselves easily, and give 'hope' a chance" has a great impact on young people. People and intellectuals are very attractive.

Hillary repeatedly reminded voters to give up romantic fantasies and be more realistic - "The United States is in a critical period and needs a president who can get things done as soon as he takes office."

Hillary tried to prove to voters that "experience" is not just a resume, but a real basis for governing. Among the Democratic candidates, she is the only one who is most familiar with the rules of the political game in Washington. Only she understands the relationship between the White House and the House of Representatives best. Only she has deep roots among members of both parties in federal and state politics. - Jane In other words, only she can get things done.

As Hillary Clinton said when attacking Edwards in New Hampshire on January 6: "If you say you passed the patient rights bill but forget to tell everyone that the bill was never signed into law, then no. Change."

"Choose a man of action, not a man of words," Hillary warned voters.

After the Iowa grassroots caucus primaries, Hillary realized that voters were tired of campaign slogans such as "experience" and "change." In New Hampshire, on the one hand, she attacked Obama's "change" as unclear and empty, and on the other hand, she used practical actions to prove the importance of experience.

After a campaign speech in Nashua, Hillary spent nearly an hour and a half answering questions from the audience. From national health insurance, illegal immigration, tuition loans, fiscal deficits, fair trade, homeland security to the mental illness of Iraq war veterans, Hillary answered all questions without any ambiguity. There seems to be no issue whose causes and consequences she doesn't know, and no voter whose situation she doesn't care about. A day ago, at the same venue, Obama only gave a 20-minute regular speech and did not accept any questions. Although Hillary did not emphasize the word "experience" that time, the audience generally recognized her experience advantage in public policy.

Another important message that Hillary conveyed in New Hampshire is: In her 35 years in politics, her merits, demerits, and positions have been fully exposed to the public eye, but how many people know Obama’s background? Hillary said that her "changes" can be seen by everyone in history, but the direction and effectiveness of Obama's "changes" are full of uncertainty.

Looking back at the first two primaries, in Iowa, voters’ ears are still ringing with Obama’s encouragement: “There are always people who say we can’t do it, we can’t win, we can’t It's possible to run an aggressive campaign and we're going to prove those assumptions wrong." And in New Hampshire, hesitant voters were more likely to be thrown cold water on Clinton's assertion that the Obama craze was nothing more than a "fairy tale." What echoed in my ears was Hillary's confident words: "I am the only president who does not need on-the-job training."

Many New Hampshire voters interviewed by "Finance" reporters recognized this message of Hillary . They admit that Obama is an excellent presidential candidate and can be an excellent president in the future, but he can still wait, "at least until the end of Hillary's two eight-year terms."

"Let us Let’s have a female president first, and then a black president!” 91-year-old New Hampshire Representative Angelin Okopka told a reporter from Caijing.

After the dramatic primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, it is difficult to make a clear prediction about the final outcome of the Democratic nomination. For both Obama and Hillary, the road ahead is full of challenges.

*** and the Democratic Party each take the lead

Dick Armey, the former Democratic majority leader of the House of Representatives, said in an earlier interview with a reporter from Caijing: "Democratic candidates look at They look very different, but they are the same at heart; the candidates of the Communist Party and the party look the same, but are actually different. "The election situation of the Communist Party and the party since January 3 not only distinguishes the political opinions of each candidate, but also distinguishes them. It reflects the differences in demands of voters and party voters in different states in the United States.

Huckabee, a former pastor and former governor of Arkansas who defended the values ??of conservative Christian voters, was the first to win the Democratic primary in Iowa, where evangelical Christians account for 60%. This little-known governor of a small state with little campaign funds seemed to be transformed in the late fall of 2007, becoming a popular candidate for the Democratic presidential candidate. This fully demonstrates the power of evangelical Christians among the Communist Party and the Party in the agricultural states of the Midwest.

Romney, another popular candidate, has many different identities - the founder of the private equity firm Bain Capital, the former governor of Massachusetts, and a devout Mormon. In order to win the Iowa primary, Romney spent $17 million from his own pocket. From May to early December last year, Romney had been far ahead here; in the midsummer of last year, his approval rating once surpassed the second place by nearly 20%.

Under Romney's momentum, former New York City Mayor Giuliani and Vietnam War hero and Arizona Senator John McCain both decided to abandon Iowa and fight in other states. But in the end, Romney was abandoned by Iowa's conservative Christians because of his "Mormon" beliefs and inconsistent stance on abortion.

However, if you lose the east corner, you will gain the mulberry tree. In the Michigan primary election on January 15, Romney still relied on his business and management background to convince Michigan Republican voters that he was the best person to reverse the U.S. economic recession.

The latest polls show that the economy has replaced the Iraq War as the topic of greatest concern to Democratic and Republican voters here. When asked "What is the most pressing issue in the United States right now," 55% of Michigan Republican voters chose "the economy"; by comparison, only 18% chose "the war in Iraq" and "anti-terrorism" of only 10%.

As the birthplace of the American automobile industry, Michigan has borne the brunt of the wave of globalization and outsourcing. The state's unemployment rate is currently as high as 7.4%, which is 2.4 percentage points higher than the U.S. state average. Not only are Detroit's three major automakers, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, laying off employees, many auto parts manufacturers and service providers in surrounding areas have also declared bankruptcy.

When campaign opponent McCain proposed that "the decline of manufacturing is an inevitable trend, and Michiganders must face this cruel reality," Luo, who founded Bain Capital and turned the Salt Lake City Olympics from a loss to a profit, Mooney, immediately playing the "problem solver" card: "I'm not willing to lean back, put my hands down, and say, 'That's bad for Michigan. That's bad for the auto industry. Bad luck for the people who lost their jobs. That's not going to happen anymore.' . ”

Romney suggested saving jobs in Michigan through technological innovation while relaxing policy restrictions on industrial development. His confidence and optimism on economic issues clearly earned him a lot of points.

In New Hampshire, McCain, who won the Democratic Party primary election four years ago, once again relied on his tough anti-terrorism and homeland security stances, as well as more moderate social values, to win New Hampshire. Supported by the Democratic Party and moderate voters, it topped the list with 37 votes. In the recently released USA TODAY/Gallup Democratic Party national poll, McCain also ranked first, 14 percentage points higher than second place Huckabee.

Former New York City Mayor Giuliani, who had been favored in the polls last year, has been unexpectedly at a disadvantage since the beginning of the primary election. However, he doesn't have no chance at all. Although his iron-fisted management style dissatisfied some New Yorkers, during his tenure, he did greatly alleviate the pressure on immigration, employment, and public security in New York, and also successfully helped New York survive the aftermath of the "911" terrorist attacks. impact.

In addition, Giuliani’s small government, tax reduction policies and moderate social values ??still have great appeal to business people, middle voters and urban voters. One of the reasons Iowa and New Hampshire don't push much.

His campaign spokesman Jarrod Agen explained to the Caijing reporter: "Giuliani's campaign strategy is national, and he does not want to bet on something that is more symbolic than practical. Iowa. ”

Entering the “Trench War” Stage

Because candidates from both parties failed to gain absolute momentum in the early “momentum” primaries in several states. In the lead, the US presidential candidate nomination campaign will enter the so-called "trench warfare" stage. At this stage, candidates will face a fierce "war" that must be fought in each state. Currently, candidates from both parties are focusing on South Carolina (January 26) and Florida (January 29), as well as the more than 20 states holding primaries on February 5.

Among them, South Carolina is a crucial stop for Democratic candidates. In 2004, Edwards received a high approval rating here; in 1992, the state's vote for Clinton was as high as more than 60%. This year, to what extent can the mixed-race Obama win the votes of African-American voters in the state, who account for 50% of Democratic voters? This is the center of attention. Last fall, Clinton led Obama by nearly 15 percentage points in South Carolina polls. But since the beginning of this year, Obama's approval rating has risen almost linearly, and now leads Hillary by more than ten percentage points. Will Obama's advantage last until January 26? Will polling failures like those in New Hampshire happen again? I am afraid these questions will not be revealed until the moment the vote counting is completed.

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