American auto market under the epidemic: the annual sales volume may drop by 20%, and the three giants will join hands to fight the epidemic.

From March 8 to March 16, in just 8 days, the US stock market experienced three fuses, even when it opened on March 16, which was a phenomenon that Buffett, 89, had never seen in his life. With the fall of the weather vane of the world capital market, Mr. Chuan, who has always been confident, had to admit that the American economy may be in recession, began to pay attention to the prevention and control of the epidemic, and declared the United States into a "national emergency."

However, a wave of unrest has started again. Recently, Saudi Arabia launched an oil price war, announcing a sharp reduction in the price of crude oil exported to overseas markets in April. As soon as the news came out, the international oil price plummeted by nearly 30%, the biggest drop since 199 1. Whether the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil countries, will have an impact on American shale oil or even cause great changes in the international energy market needs to be questioned.

A series of events, such as epidemic spread, stock market crash and oil price war, followed one after another, which made the American capital market sad and caused heavy losses to the automobile industry. So, what about American automakers who are now caught in the whirlpool of the epidemic?

Three American auto giants set up a special working group.

In the face of disaster, no one is an island. With the spread of pneumonia in COVID-19, only when all forces unite to fight the epidemic can we win the battle better. After the United States entered a state of emergency, the three major American auto giants, General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler, responded quickly and jointly announced the establishment of a special working group with the United Auto Workers' Union (UAW) to jointly fight the epidemic and better protect employees and production tasks.

In a short period of time, GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler set up special working groups to make timely and comprehensive adjustments and plans for employee protection and production tasks, which can prevent the epidemic from spreading further in the automobile industry to some extent. In addition, the joint efforts of the three giants to fight the epidemic will also bring some confidence to the American auto market.

Since last week, these major automobile companies have begun to deploy telecommuting, but only for office employees who can telecommute, and factory production personnel still need to work in the factory. Although there have been cases of infection in the factory, the production of the factory is still going on normally.

Mark Truby, a spokesman for Ford Motor Company, said that although the current situation is rather unstable, he does not think that any of Ford's major factories will be completely closed. GM and Fiat Chrysler also expressed this attitude.

Judging from the current situation, the epidemic in the United States is in the early stage of outbreak, and automobile manufacturers have begun to strengthen prevention and control and deploy telecommuting, but they have not yet closed their factories.

However, if the epidemic spreads further around the world, I am afraid that American automakers will have to take more stringent prevention and control measures, including closing factories. At present, the automobile markets in China, Japan, South Korea and Europe are deeply affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. The production of automobile suppliers has been interrupted for some time, and the influence of supply and demand in the industrial chain will also spread to the American market, prompting the American automobile manufacturing industry to stagnate.

The CEO of the American Center for Automotive Research said that the epidemic will have an impact on American automobile production within 1- 1.5 months, and the impact on parts and services will be faster.

The American auto market fell.

Undoubtedly, the black swan of COVID-19 epidemic mercilessly extended its claws to the global automobile market, and a large number of parts suppliers stopped production, resulting in a decrease in automobile production and sales. Even if some automobile factories can survive for some time by relying on spare parts inventory, it is impossible for the huge automobile industry chain to return to normal order, at least not in the short term.

In addition, American automakers, which are in the center of the world capital market, have to face another cruel fact-the stock price has fallen. Since March, Fiat Chrysler's share price has fallen by 36.3%, and Ford and GM have both fallen by more than 30%. On March 16, the share prices of these three companies all fell to a new low of nearly 52 weeks. Even Tesla Motors, which had been rising before, fell by nearly 65,438+09% on March 65,438+06, which is the fourth consecutive trading day for Tesla.

Production and sales have declined, and the stock price has fallen. I believe that the financial report of automobile manufacturers in 2020 will not be too good.

In fact, after the outbreak of the epidemic, various analysis institutions made predictions on the global automobile market. Institutions are different, but the forecast results are the same, that is, a sharp drop.

The capital market of Royal Bank of Canada predicts that global automobile production will drop by 65,438+06% in 2020, and American automobile sales will drop by 20%. Morgan Stanley analysts released a report saying that the epidemic will lead to a 9% drop in US car sales this year.

Although it is impossible to know the final impact of the epidemic on the American auto market at present, judging from the situation of China auto market in February, March-April will be the darkest moment in the American auto market.

According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of automobiles in China in February were 285,000 and 3,654.38+0,000 respectively, down by 79.8% and 79. 1% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased by more than 80% year-on-year, which was higher than the overall decline of automobile production and sales. Since the end of February, upstream and downstream enterprises in the automobile industry chain have resumed production one after another, and the epidemic situation has been further controlled. In March, the decline of automobile production and sales in China is expected to narrow.

General Chuan said that the United States was safe, and Musk criticized the panic of the epidemic as stupid. It was only about a week before the United States declared a state of emergency and the defense of various industries was upgraded. The global spread of pneumonia in COVID-19 far exceeds many people's imagination. Compared with other countries, China has achieved epidemic prevention and control management earlier, but even so, China's automobile market can't stand it and has fallen sharply. China's auto market remains the same. It is conceivable that the United States, which did not pay attention to the epidemic at the beginning, or European countries such as Italy will face such a dilemma. With the "globalization" of the epidemic, the rhythm of the global automobile industry chain will be disrupted, which will bring more unknowns to the global automobile market in 2020. How much will the China auto market, which has been declining for two consecutive years, be affected? We dare not imagine.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.