"Live without speculation" remains unchanged, and the old community is transformed into a new urbanization focus.

The annual National People's Congress not only sets the tone for the annual economic activities, but also serves as a weather vane for many industries, including real estate. The policies and attitudes related to the property market in the two sessions have become an important basis for the industry to understand the future market development direction.

On May 22nd, the third session of the 13th National People's Congress opened, and People's Republic of China (PRC) Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China made a report on the government work. In this 10,000-word report, there are only 200 words related to real estate, which is of great significance, including: insisting that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market due to the city's policy; Newly started the renovation of 39,000 old urban areas, installed elevators, and developed diversified community services such as catering and cleaning.

This year's "Government Work Report" did not set specific targets for the annual economic growth rate for the first time. Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that this is mainly because the global epidemic situation and the economic and trade situation are very uncertain, and the development of China faces some unpredictable factors. He stressed that whether it is to protect employment, protect people's livelihood, achieve the goal of poverty alleviation, or prevent and resolve risks, it must be supported by economic growth, and stabilizing economic operation has a bearing on the overall situation.

Two years later, I reiterated that "housing is not speculation"

After a lapse of two years, "no speculation in housing" has been mentioned again, which is related to the recent frequent measures taken by local governments to stimulate the property market.

The orientation of "housing without speculation" in the property market first appeared at the Central Economic Work Conference in February 20 16, and then some regulatory arguments such as "no longer using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy" were put forward. Many places have successively introduced and continuously upgraded the property market regulation policies, and the regulation effect has become increasingly remarkable, laying the foundation for the relatively stable development of the property market in recent years.

As an important part of the national economy, maintaining market stability is the aspiration of the people and the general trend. Only by giving consideration to people's livelihood and obeying the overall situation of national development can real estate development be stable and far-reaching.

In the government work report of 20 18, "no speculation in housing" appeared, but it was briefly absent in 20 19. Although the report called for "implementing the main responsibility of the city" at that time, this year, with the effective containment of the COVID-19 epidemic, real estate enterprises resumed work, and real estate development and operation gradually resumed.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in April, the sales index of commercial housing in 50 of 70 cities increased month on month. Second-hand residential sales index, there are also three first-tier cities have jumped into the top ten, through real estate to stimulate economic development can be seen.

After a lapse of two years, "no speculation in housing" has been mentioned again. Recently, local government measures to stimulate the property market have appeared frequently, but most of these policies ended in "one-day trips". On March 4th, the relevant policies of Guangzhou Municipal Government on loosening the property market were suspended; On March 5th, the policy of 17 issued by Zhumadian municipal government to stabilize the property market was removed from official website. Guangzhou and Zhumadian successively removed relevant documents, which once again triggered public concern about the trend of property market regulation.

Ding Song, deputy director of China Urban Economic Expert Committee, told the reporter of China Business News that "housing and not speculation is the core policy of the national property market regulation. Although the recent epidemic has led to a relative economic downturn, it is not contradictory to emphasize housing and housing speculation. This is a long-term mechanism. "

Pan Helin, executive director of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, pointed out that "under the influence of the epidemic, local governments have the impulse to relax real estate policies, whether it is land revenue or bail-out for real estate enterprises. However, from the macro policy point of view, the central government still insists on' housing and not speculating', and the leverage of the current real estate market has reached a certain height. Once the policy is loosened, it may further squeeze the real economy. Therefore, how local governments deal with real estate control policies is more sensitive. "

The statement of real estate in this government work report is quite different from that in the past, and it clearly requires "to further promote new urbanization, give play to the comprehensive driving role of central cities and urban agglomerations, cultivate industries and increase employment." Insist that the house is used for living, not for speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market because of the city's policy. Improve convenience facilities and make the city more livable and suitable for business. "

Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, said, "Once again, the house is used for living, not for speculation, but it also clarifies the main tone of real estate because of the city's policy. On the one hand, it ensures the stable supply of the real estate market, on the other hand, it promotes the decentralization of urban functions through the comprehensive driving role of urban agglomerations, thus reducing the excessive real estate pressure brought about by agglomeration. "

This year, it is planned to arrange 3.75 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, an increase of10.6 trillion yuan over last year, and increase the proportion of special bonds that can be used as project capital. The central budget will allocate 600 billion yuan for investment. Focus on supporting the "two new and one heavy" construction that not only promotes consumption, benefits people's livelihood, but also adjusts the structure and increases the stamina, mainly including: strengthening the construction of new infrastructure, developing a new generation of information networks, expanding the application of 5G, building charging piles, promoting new energy vehicles, stimulating new consumption demand and helping industrial upgrading.

Strengthen the construction of new urbanization, vigorously improve the facilities and service capacity of county towns, and meet the growing demand of farmers for employment and settlement in county towns. Newly started the renovation of 39,000 old urban areas, installed elevators, and developed diversified community services such as catering and cleaning.

Liu Ce, chief strategy officer of Caesars Group, said, "It is expected that the regulation of real estate will not be greatly relaxed this year, but we can also see that the government report mentions new urbanization and the transformation of old urban areas, which is of great benefit to the field of urban renewal."

Solve the problem of old community reconstruction

The logic of real estate development in the stock age is different from that in the past.

The urbanization process is undoubtedly a major driving force for the development of real estate. In 20 19, the urbanization rate of permanent residents in China exceeded 60% for the first time.

With the acceleration of urbanization, the real estate industry has entered the era of stock. The first half of the real estate industry, originally represented by "incremental development", gradually transitioned to the second half marked by "stock transportation management". With this change, urban renewal has attracted more and more attention.

The logic of real estate development in the stock age is different from that in the past. Liu Ce said, "The incremental era may be dominated by residential development, and houses are sold out after they are built, but now the situation has changed. In the future, more attention will be paid to the holding and operation of the project. At this stage, profitable projects that can bring sufficient cash flow are very important, and urban renewal projects just meet this requirement. "

New urbanization will be one of the investment priorities this year. According to the report of China Index Academy, since the beginning of this year, the central government has repeatedly stressed the need to strengthen the renovation and upgrading of existing housing at important meetings. In this "Government Work Report", it is clearly stated that 39,000 old urban communities will be built and renovated, involving nearly 7 million households, twice as much as last year. While improving the living conditions of residents, it can also expand domestic demand and promote effective investment.

According to RealData analysis, according to the data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, 1.7 million old residential areas will attract 5 trillion yuan of investment. In proportion, the 39,000 residential areas promoted this time are expected to attract investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan.

It is not easy to transform old residential areas, and there are often problems that are difficult to adjust, such as the conflict of interests between high and low floors of elevators and the interest game between cars in the transformation of parking lots.

Yu Yu, a deputy to the National People's Congress, believes that it is very important to do a good job in communication and coordination in all aspects during the process of transformation. "In fact, the main difficulty is communication and coordination. Leaders are very important, including owners' committees or neighborhood committees should give full play to their coordinating role. In addition to the coordination of formalities, the most important thing is the coordination between neighbors and owners. "

Considering that many old residential areas are facing the situation of "aging population", Ming Jiang, a deputy to the National People's Congress, suggested: "In the renovation of residential areas, there can be 200 square meters to 500 square meters of space for the elderly to use, the government supports market-oriented operation, and families purchase services."

During the renovation of old residential areas, Wang Yuzhi, deputy to the National People's Congress and director of the Housing and Construction Department of Shandong Province, suggested that top-level design and financial support should be strengthened and a long-term service mechanism should be introduced. "creatively introduce some policies, such as land policy. Shandong has a policy that is organically combined with inefficient land use, which is mainly used for the construction of supporting service facilities for the renovation of old residential areas. Another is the planning policy, which can be moderately liberalized without violating the mandatory provisions of planning. "

According to the statistics of RealData, more than half of the top 50 housing enterprises have carried out urban renewal business, including Country Garden, Vanke, Evergrande and Poly. However, at present, the spatial distribution of urban renewal and old renovation projects is obviously unbalanced, and there is still a lot of room for housing enterprises to invest in this area.

Normalization of real estate regulation in the stock age

In the current economic uncertainty, real estate tax may be difficult to land in recent years.

In addition to the relevant contents of this "Government Work Report", issues such as when the real estate tax will be introduced and the decline in the financing interest rate of housing enterprises have also received much attention.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that last year, the national investment in real estate development was 132 194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. Among them, residential investment was 9707 1 100 million yuan, an increase of 13.9% compared with 20 18. In many places, there is also the pressure of rising house prices.

/kloc-In May, 2008, the State Council issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Improvement of the Socialist Market Economic System in the New Period, which mentioned "steadily pushing forward the real estate tax legislation". Chen, an analyst at Great Wall Securities, believes that this "Government Work Report" did not mention the property tax, which is the first time in three years. Last year's "Government Work Report" proposed that the property tax "steadily advances the legislation of real estate tax", and the process of property tax may slow down.

"Real estate tax is a major adjustment of China's tax revenue. With the listing of a large number of new houses, land finance is unsustainable in the era of real estate stock, and taxation through a large number of properties already held by residents is the future trend. " Ding Song pointed out that under the current economic uncertainty, it may be difficult to land in recent years, but as a general trend, the country has been improving and brewing, and it is estimated that there may be a big breakthrough in 3-5 years.

"The purpose of real estate tax legislation is to change the current situation that existing taxes are re-circulated and lightly retained, and achieve the effect of optimizing the real estate tax system. At present, the turnover tax restricts housing transactions on the one hand and reduces the supply of stock houses in disguise; On the other hand, the taxes that should have been borne by the seller are easily passed on to the buyer, which raises the house price in disguise. " Jaco, Dean of the Branch of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that after the real estate tax legislation, it will be more reasonable for whoever holds it to pay taxes. However, due to the great links and influence involved in the real estate tax itself, its promotion process not only needs the protection of the system level, but also needs to be combined with the development of domestic real estate.