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The psychological logic of werewolf killing (Part 1)

Foreword

One of the reasons for writing this article is that I have read a lot of books on psychology and logic recently. Reading fantasy is too metaphysical. At this time, we need a practical and practical solution. Theory is the process of analyzing practical problems.

"First-rate theories make predictions, second-rate theories impose bans, and third-rate theories provide ex post facto explanations."

Knowledge becomes valuable because it allows people to predict things that have not happened yet.

This is why people don't like "hindsight" and "hindsight" - theories that explain what has happened without predicting the future are meaningless.

1. The game of chess and cards

The essence of chess and cards is a conflict between two (or more) rational people. The player's goal is to win, which is the most direct conflict of interest. The outcome of chess and card games is the result of the game between people.

The foundation of chess and cards is rules. Victory is based on rules, and some methods evolved from the rules for victory become routines.

Therefore, in the game of chess and cards, two factors, people and rules, are indispensable.

In chess and cards, specific routines can indeed increase the probability of winning. However, for the purpose of training your thinking and psychology, the following article will focus on analyzing the game ideas.

Students who are interested in chess, Go, board games, and the fixed routines of Werewolf Killing that we will discuss can use Baidu on their own.

2. Information asymmetry - understanding of Werewolf from a game perspective

Werewolf is a multi-camp game based on information asymmetry.

One of the essences of werewolf killing lies in information asymmetry:

Villagers who know nothing, witches who know death information in advance, and werewolves who know each other's identities can check one person every night The prophet of human identity...

Therefore, the key to playing Werewolf well lies in processing information: obtaining, analyzing, and conveying (inducing/persuading).

3. Game analysis under rational conditions

Analyze from the simplest and most ideal scenario - put aside all off-site factors (personal emotions, personal tendencies), A completely just and competent God: In this case, we can analyze the thinking of each identity.

① Villagers’ thinking

Village names can only passively obtain information. The goal of the villagers is to analyze this information, protect the source of the correct information, and ultimately make the correct identification.

The villagers' speeches are to analyze the information given by each person, find contradictions, and raise their own questions.

② Werewolf thinking

Werewolves know each other’s identities and have the power of night swords. The purpose of the werewolf is to induce information, create conflicts, fish out the other party's strong gods, and ensure one's own survival. Based on the analysis of information, the werewolf's speech will have a tendency to induce, give hints, divert or create contradictions when conveying information (especially after dancing).

③ Prophet’s Thought

The prophet can designate someone to know his identity every night. His purpose is to provide the villagers with as much information as possible, and at the same time, he must gain the villagers' trust. The purpose of a prophet is to obtain key identity information, persuade good people to trust him, and provide information accurately.

4. Application of social psychology under rational conditions

Some social psychological analysis of speaking behavior derived from basic rules.

①?Persuasion: the way to influence

Any effective propaganda must be limited to a few points, and these slogans must be repeated until everyone understands .

—Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf

The central approach to persuasion: focus on arguments. If the argument is strong and convincing, people are more likely to be convinced. If the argument contains weak arguments, thoughtful people are more likely to notice this and mount a counterargument.

Therefore, as a prophet, when identifying yourself, you must give reasons and arguments to gain the trust of the villagers. As a werewolf, when jumping to the prophet, you should also pay attention to the fact that sometimes people are more willing to believe in well-founded and flesh-and-blood judgments than the naked truth.

The skill of persuasion is repetition and repetition (it is human nature after all). Implant your opinions deeply into other people's subconscious minds.

②? Intuition: a shortcut to thinking

Remember, changing your thoughts and following it in the right direction still means you are a free person

——Auleus, "Meditations"

Intuition is a shortcut to thinking.

Intuition is a set of independent methods of analyzing things that is independent of analyzing information based on rationality. It is a way of thinking engraved in the DNA of our ancestors through cruel survival of the fittest. The starting point of intuition is often the lowest goal of survival. It may not make you a better person, but it often prevents the worst outcomes from happening.

For most people, trusting their intuition is also a choice when encountering complicated situations. When villagers cannot distinguish between true and false, they can boldly trust their intuition and express their subjective thoughts. When the situation is unclear, stick to your idea regardless of whether it is right or wrong.

③ Conformity: changes in behavior or beliefs influenced by others

First, group influence

When most people will target When you identify a person, can that person make a strong rebuttal? Will the remaining people believe the majority or just one person?

You should choose to believe the truth.

When you play as a werewolf, use group influence pressure appropriately.

When you play as a villager, don't let the crowd cloud your judgment.

Second, the influence of authority

I love my teacher, and I love the truth even more.

——Aristotle

People with strong authority and influence can often influence the judgments of others.

In this game, this person can be a police sergeant with the right to return votes or multiple votes, or an old player who is proficient in the game. When you play a game, 80% of the initiative in the game is in their hands.

They can call for the wind and rain, divert disaster to the east; they can turn the tide and fight back; they control the rhythm of the game, and they are the authority. They tend to be thoughtful and hide their thoughts.

But gullibility and blind obedience are the weaknesses that dominate the human mind. No matter how reasonable they are, please keep thinking independently and don't let them take over your brain.