Why did wind power suddenly decline?

Actually, this question is not very accurate. The prospect of wind power industry is still broad, but it has entered a period of slow growth after a leap-forward development in previous years.

The data of 1. shows that during the period of 20 10-20 17, the scale of wind power continued to grow at a high speed, and the installed capacity increased from 3. 1% of 20 10 to 9.2% of 20 17, becoming.

2. The cost of wind power generation continues to decline, and it is already cheaper than the existing coal and natural gas power plants. According to Lazard's report, since 2009, the cost of solar energy has dropped by 88% and wind power generation by 69%. In the United States, the cost of onshore wind power can be as low as $29/kWh, while the average marginal cost of existing coal-fired generators is $36/kWh.

3. In recent years, the domestic wind power industry is affected by factors such as oversupply and coal-electricity competition, and the abandoned wind rate remains high, resulting in a long payback period and low income for operators, but this phenomenon has been reversed. For example, in recent years, the installed capacity of new energy in Xinjiang has increased by spurt, with the total installed capacity exceeding 27 million kilowatts, ranking first in the country in terms of scale and proportion, of which the installed capacity of wind power exceeds 6,543,800 kilowatts. Since 20 15, the rate of abandoning wind and light in Xinjiang has been rising continuously, becoming a serious area of abandoning wind and light in China. 20 17 Xinjiang and other six provinces and regions were judged as red warning areas for wind power development and construction, and it was forbidden to approve new wind power projects. However, there has been a marked improvement this year. In June of 5438+00, the abandoned wind power in Xinjiang was 490 million kWh, a decrease of 54.6% compared with the same period of last year. The wind abandonment rate was 14.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3 percentage points. Up to now, the abandonment rate in Xinjiang has been below 20% for four consecutive months.

Therefore, on the whole, the wind power industry has not declined and still has great prospects.

Working in the northwest a few years ago, I really felt the leap-forward development of wind power generation in those years. I remember the original slogan was to build the Three Gorges on land. In Hexi Corridor, windmills for wind power generation have sprung up like mushrooms after rain. At that time, on Lianhuo Expressway, large trucks with blades were often seen shuttling back and forth. My hometown is Baoding, Hebei Province, and many factories have been built to produce this kind of blades. I have an aunt's cousin who works in a factory, producing wind leaves, and the benefits are very good. She only has a secondary school education and is engaged in quality inspection. Her salary is not much lower than that of my graduate school, and her welfare benefits are also very good. At first, she said that in order to reduce the cost of long-distance transportation, her factory would also build a branch in Jiuquan.

After a gust of wind, the wind soon died down. Later, I saw an article. I forget what periodical it is. It seems to be energy. It mentioned the rise and fall of the wind, that is, it analyzed the gust. The general view is this.

Wind power generation is unstable. As we all know, it is obviously influenced by the wind. Therefore, in order to ensure the stable output of wind power, it is usually necessary to equip corresponding thermal power plants for peak shaving according to the scale of wind power. With such large-scale wind power, thermal power plants are a bit backward. In addition, electricity is delivered from power stations to users and transmitted through the power grid. At present, the State Grid simply cannot bear the impact of such large-scale wind power on the Internet. It seems that the professional name is that wind power will cause power grid impact and lead to off-grid. Because the places where wind power is generated are basically sparsely populated, the electricity consumption is very small, while the densely populated places use more electricity, so it is not suitable for wind power generation. Therefore, wind power is bound to face the problem of long-distance transmission. At present, the power grid is a big obstacle. From the perspective of national power grid, there is no incentive to carry out technical transformation or innovation of wind power. From the perspective of cost, long-distance transmission may not be appropriate.

The end result is that so many windmills are standing in the Gobi desert to bask in the sun. Even if some windmills are turning, most windmills are idling there. What is the use of electricity that cannot be transmitted and stored?

These problems should be considered systematically at the beginning of planning, but various departments and some leaders have been working hard for their own purposes. Leaders are eager to make achievements and produce results. Some enterprises try to earn subsidies. In short, various subjective factors have done a lot of things that do not respect objective laws. Therefore, it wastes human and financial resources. I wonder who's going to wipe my ass in the back.

The sudden decline of wind power generation is related to the following aspects!

First of all, wind power generation does have an effect on alleviating environmental pollution, but after all, wind power generation is affected by wind power. That is, when the wind is strong, the fan can rotate at full speed, and the power supply can be guaranteed, but when the wind is small or there is no wind, it will be troublesome! Therefore, wind power can not be directly connected to the power grid like thermal power and hydropower, and it is the main power source in the developed eastern provinces. Even if it is connected to the power grid, it is necessary to build a thermal power station to ensure the stability of power supply. In recent years, with the increasing environmental protection, the capacity of thermal power plants has been greatly limited, and it is even more difficult for unstable wind power to access the Internet!

Secondly, although wind power has developed rapidly in Germany, France and other European countries. However, after all, these countries are completely different from China in terms of land area and balanced regional development! The provinces with large wind power production capacity in China are Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, while the eastern region is in urgent need of electricity. Therefore, the transmission line loss must be considered.

To sum up, the role of wind power in energy security and environmental security was obviously overestimated at first. Now just return to reason, don't make a fuss! I'm glad to answer your question. In our life, the demand for energy is everywhere, such as gasoline for driving. But gasoline is also extracted from oil, but there is a total amount of oil on the earth, and it is a non-renewable resource. In other words, there will be a dry day, which is why people advocate the use of electric vehicles now.

Compared with oil, which is a non-renewable resource, electric power resources are renewable. A few years ago, the concept of wind power generation was very popular. This way of power generation is environmentally friendly and economical, but why has wind power gradually declined in recent years?

In fact, there are still some technical problems. For example, the uncontrollable wind power will cause the power of wind power generation to be unstable, and it is necessary to configure thermal power plants for peak shaving, but this still increases the power cost. One more thing, wind power generation is generally distributed in sparsely populated places, because the noise is still relatively large. In this way, the long-distance transportation of electricity will also increase the cost.

In addition, the technology of long-distance electric power transportation in China is still slightly backward, which makes the technical end very difficult. Therefore, at present, China's wind power generation is still in the experimental stage, and it will take time for large-scale use.

Of course, if these problems are solved, wind power generation will reduce the cost of electricity. As ordinary people, they will also feel the benefits brought by this technology, but it is still too early to say.

Wind energy may be the main energy source. If you are interested, you can download a BP global energy statistics yearbook, and you will find the following facts.

First of all, due to the lack of disposable energy (coal, oil and natural gas) in Europe, the proportion of renewable energy in European countries far exceeds that in the world. France and Germany chose two different routes.

Germany is developing into a country dominated by wind power generation.

Important reason: The Hiroshima nuclear accident in Japan made Germany choose to give up nuclear power, and new renewable energy must be available to supplement the vacuum zone of nuclear power withdrawal. In recent years, wind power in Germany has grown at an ultra-high speed, and the cost of wind power has continued to decline. At present, the installed capacity of wind power in Germany accounts for 1/3 of the whole country, and the peak value can meet half of Germany's electricity demand. Therefore, Germany has proved that wind power generation is a reliable and sustainable renewable energy source that serves mankind (please don't spray "wind energy", a technology that can benefit mankind forever).

News report

Germany's onshore wind farms account for about 2% of the country.

Second, China's coal demand accounts for nearly 50% of the global total, and its annual coal output is about 3.7 billion tons, accounting for about 8% of the total freight volume (44 billion tons). Please note that the output of a single product accounts for 8% of the total freight volume. How much of the energy generated by coal is used to transport the coal itself? How much of the energy generated by coal is used to transport heavy chemical products in coal-related industries?

Only GDP logic and overcapacity are the main reasons for wind power adjustment. Energy is in the northwest and demand is in the southeast.

To what extent will the southeast region consider environmental protection and the future for GDP and local employment?

If we use wind power in northwest China, it is not only relatively expensive, but also equal to giving employment and GDP to northwest China.

This is the first factor.

With the decline of oil price (200 1-2008 bull market cycle of commodities), it is more economical to use thermal power than wind power in the southeast region.

This is the second and most important factor.

Wind power will eventually be the future fossil energy (coal, oil, natural gas) and one-time energy. The more you consume, the less you consume.

The cost of wind power generation is declining, and wind energy is endless and a sustainable energy source.

Believe in technology,

In the future, wind power, hydropower, nuclear power and solar energy will become the leading energy sources in China, and will be combined with electric vehicles to get rid of the situation that energy in China is controlled by people.

First of all, we need to reconfirm a proposition, that is, is wind power thriving?

In fact, since the wind power started, the risk has been buried, and it has not reached the stage of prosperity. The reason is that we support the start of wind power in policy, launch wind power projects regardless of technical content, development reality, power supply status, how to connect with the power grid after the completion of wind power projects, and conduct feasibility studies. How can we start large-scale investment in wind power projects without problems?

When we say whether an industry or a field is prosperous or not, we don't see how many projects have been launched, but what kind of benefits can be obtained after the project is completed. Including economic and social benefits, but also the role of economic and social development. Only when the functions and benefits are reflected can the development of this industry be prosperous and healthy. Otherwise, it can only be regarded as blind development and disorderly development.

As we all know, in the development process of wind power industry, there is no complete development plan, no industrial layout and no reasonable resource allocation. On the contrary, enterprises and investors follow the trend to grab the policy, which seems to be vigorous, but it is meaningless and valuable in essence. Especially in the case that some power supply is very sufficient, thermal power generation, hydropower generation and even photovoltaic power generation have been surplus, wind power projects are still being launched, and the wind power industry can only fall to the starting point.

More importantly, in some places, wind power projects have adversely affected the environment and management, and also destroyed the integrity and planning of land. Only because of temporary achievements, local governments agreed to its construction. Of course, when the power supply is already surplus, problems will arise.

Therefore, for wind power, there is no problem of fading. That is, there is no prosperity at all, but there is a false prosperity, that is, temporary excitement is regarded as prosperity and prosperity. On the contrary, it has left many problems in many places, and it will not work if it is demolished. The waste of resources in wind power industry is serious and typical.

It is also a profound lesson from the rapid development of wind power industry to the piles of problems left over now. The development of any industry can not be blind, can not make the Great Leap Forward, can not act indiscriminately. The lessons of wind power industry should attract the attention and attention of all localities and relevant departments, including enterprises and investors, and learn from them to avoid similar problems in other industries and fields.

First of all, wind power generation is the so-called "garbage electricity". There is electricity when there is wind, and there is no electricity when there is no wind, which is of low value but high cost to the power grid.

Second, the value of wind power generation is over-advertised, and there is a bubble. In fact, there are not so many places suitable for wind power generation in China. The so-called decline is just a return to normal.

I can't agree with the view that wind power generation is declining.

Wind power has many advantages, but it is one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world. Wind power is clean energy. Wind energy will not pollute the air, it does not depend on burning fossil fuels, nor will it cause human health problems and greenhouse gas emissions. Although there are some emissions in the process of producing wind turbines, wind power generation is clean and rich in wind resources, which is one of the most cost-effective forms of energy.

Wind energy is sustainable, and wind energy is actually a kind of solar energy. Wind is caused by the sun, the earth's rotation and the irregular atmospheric heating on the earth's surface. Wind turbines can be built on existing farmland, farmers can continue to cultivate on this land, and wind turbines only occupy a small part of the land.

Although wind energy has many advantages, it also has its limitations. There is no way to control the direction of the air, and wind energy is still an unreliable energy source.

In the competition with traditional power generation methods, high initial investment may not be cost competitive.

Areas rich in wind resources are usually located in remote areas, far away from cities that need electricity, so transmission lines must be built to transport the electricity from wind power plants to cities.

Wind turbines may cause noise pollution and may destroy local wildlife.

However, through the development of technology, most of these problems have been solved or greatly reduced. Since 1980, the price has dropped by more than 80%. Due to technical progress and increasing demand, it is expected that the price will continue to decline in the foreseeable future, and the challenge of more utilization of wind energy can be solved through technical research. For example, on 20 16, Nature Energy published the research result of the energy policy research team of Tsinghua University Nuclear Research Institute, The Grid-connected Potential Model of High Proportion Coal-fired Power Grid. Through effective power reform, the total amount of grid-connected wind power can reach about 26% of the total power supply by 2030. It is proposed that the resource potential and the distance from the power load center should be considered comprehensively in the future wind power layout, and a wind power supply curve model is put forward, and the supply curve of grid-connected wind power in 2030 is obtained.

Supporting the development of wind power has been supported by China for a long time and will continue to be supported in the future. We have formulated the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" for wind power development and the roadmap for wind power development in 2050.

Roadmap of Wind Power Development in 2050

Finally, the situation of cheating subsidies really exists, and it will happen in every new energy field. All kinds of new energy sources have their own shortcomings, the cost is not low, and they also need to rely on subsidies. However, clean energy is the inevitable trend of human sustainable development. As long as the policy is strong enough, there will always be money to spend on the cutting edge, just as corrupt elements at the grassroots level are widespread. However, since the new rural construction policy, the countryside has basically undergone earth-shaking changes, and basically every village has a cement road.

It is really unsustainable to rely on subsidies to develop an industry. As long as some enterprises or people who rely on subsidies do practical things, this industry does have prospects (wind power is undoubtedly there), and it will definitely be another scenic spot. High-speed rail is not said to be quick success and instant benefit, and the mobile network postal network all over remote villages is also inseparable from financial support. In a word, wind energy is still a very green and sustainable energy source. If we can make full use of wind energy, the use of non-renewable energy will be reduced, which will be a good sign for our future generations. I believe that with the progress of technology, wind power will become cheaper and less dependent on financial subsidies, and wind power will certainly play an important role in ensuring energy security, developing economy and coping with climate change. 2 1 century is the era of energy reform and innovation.

Chief Investment Officer Commentator Menning:

China is a country with poor energy resources, so it has been investing heavily in new and renewable energy. Wind power generation technology and application are the most mature and industrialized, so wind power generation is naturally the first choice for developing new energy.

Before 20 15, wind power generation in China has been developing at a high speed. In 20 10, the newly added installed capacity exceeded 100000 kilowatts, 20 million kilowatts in 20 14, and reached a peak of 34190000 kilowatts in 20 15. After that, in 20 16 and 20 17 years, the newly added installed capacity continued to decline, which led to the decline of wind power theory.

As can be seen from the above figure, the installed capacity increased sharply in 20 15, and the newly added installed capacity decreased sharply in 20 16, which was mainly related to the national policy. Because of the policy requirements at that time, the on-grid tariff of wind power projects put into operation after 20 16 1 will be lowered; In order to cut down funds and put it into operation, everyone rushed to install it on 20 15.

The rush to install 20 15 has greatly released the demand for wind power and compressed the subsequent demand; Due to the rapid construction before 20 15, the new wind power has not been well digested, so the National Energy Administration issued the National Wind Power Investment Monitoring and Early Warning for the first time on 20 16, suspended the development and construction of wind power in the red early warning area, and concentrated on taking effective measures to solve the problem of stock wind power consumption; Except for wind power projects that meet the planning and are included in the annual implementation plan, demonstration projects organized by our bureau and market-oriented bidding projects, the annual construction scale will no longer increase, and projects that have been included in the annual implementation plan before can continue to be approved for construction.

This makes it impossible for some provinces (Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, etc.). ) are vigorously developing wind power and temporarily building new wind power projects, so it is not difficult to understand the decline of 20 16 and 20 17.

The weakness of two consecutive years has made many people think that the wind power industry has declined, and found out several reasons for the decline:

1, wind power is unstable, voltage and frequency fluctuate greatly, and it will endanger the conventional power grid if it is merged into the conventional power grid on a large scale;

2. The structure of wind turbine is complex, and the price of wind power is much higher than that of coal power. The unit power cost of wind power equipment in China is more than twice that of coal-fired power, so it is difficult for grid companies to accept or simply refuse to buy wind power;

3. The local ZF has made great efforts for its achievements, resulting in overcapacity of wind power.

These problems do exist, but it is undeniable that wind power is still developing. As can be seen from the early warning chart above, the early warning of several provinces has been cancelled, and wind power will once again usher in an inflection point after two years of adjustment.

First of all, with the development of technology and productivity, the price of wind power continues to decline, while the price of coal rises sharply with the supply-side reform, and the price of thermal power rises. The price disadvantage of wind power generation is weakening or even turning into price advantage.

Secondly, with the early warning weakening or downgrading in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Hebei and other places, the installed capacity of wind power will return to the upward trend.

Finally, it is the general trend that renewable energy and clean energy will replace high-pollution and non-renewable energy such as coal and oil, and the adjustment will not change the trend.

In the future, the four carriages of wind energy, hydropower, solar energy and nuclear power will eventually become new energy sources for China's development, freeing China from foreign energy control and taking its destiny into its own hands.

Wind energy is a hot new energy source in recent years. Its principle is to convert wind energy into mechanical energy, and then convert mechanical energy into electrical energy. The electricity generated by wind energy is alternating current. The global wind energy resources are very rich. Today, wind power demonstration bases have been built in most areas of China, and wind power construction is mostly in coastal areas and grassland pastoral areas. The development of wind power is still very rapid, and it has not declined on the whole. The data shows that from June to March this year, the national wind power generation increased by more than 33% year-on-year.

Of course, in the process of development, wind power did encounter some difficulties. The first is the grid connection of wind power generation. Because wind power cannot be idle, it will be put into use. Although micro-grid and distributed grid can be accessed, most new energy power generation will be merged into the main grid. However, a technical problem is that there will be harmonics and other phenomena in this process, which will interfere with the safety of the whole main power grid and even lead to the paralysis of the main power grid. Many electric power scientists are solving this problem. According to my interview, the research team of Professor Fu Yang from Shanghai Electric Power University has successfully solved this problem at sea in recent years.

Another difficulty is fragmentation, because it can't be unified. Even if the technology makes a breakthrough, wind power can be safely connected to the main power grid. However, due to the existence of local protectionism, wind power in some areas can only be idle and cannot be transmitted to the outside world, which leads to a lot of energy waste, losses for wind power enterprises, and investors' expectations for wind power are also greatly reduced.

However, these are temporary difficulties in the development process. With the continuous breakthrough of China's power core technology, the continuous improvement of power policy and the continuous optimization of power layout, many problems in the future can be solved. We should believe in the bright future of wind power generation.