What would happen if Zeng Guofan listened to his brother Zeng Guoquan's suggestion and raised troops to overthrow the Qing Dynasty?

Under the leadership of Zeng Guofan, the Hunan Army was invincible and defeated the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, which had just emerged and became increasingly powerful. According to common sense, the Taiping Rebellion established its own dynasty under the eyes of the Qing Dynasty, and powerful people dared to declare to the Qing Dynasty the abolition of the Qing Dynasty in Beijing. There is only one dynasty in the world, and that is the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom. But the Taiping dynasty was destroyed by Zeng Guofan's Hunan army. Hong Xiuquan of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom was flogged and Yang Xiucheng was arrested. The great Taiping Rebellion was ruined. This is enough to show the strength of the Hunan Army. What if Zeng Guofan had followed the advice of his brother Zeng Guoquan and gone to the battlefield to overthrow the Qing Dynasty?

First, let’s look at the military aspect. As we all know, the main forces in the Qing Dynasty that destroyed the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom were Zeng Guofan's Hunan Army, Zuo Zongtang's Chu Army (in fact, Zuo Zongtang's army was also a Hunan Army) and Li Hongzhang's Huai Army. At that time, there were about 100,000 Hunan troops led by Zeng Guofan himself, the main force of which was the Jizi camp led by his younger brother Zeng Guoquan, which numbered about 50,000. If Zeng Guofan rebelled against the Qing government in the south, what would Zuo Zongtang and Li Hongzhang do? First of all, we can be sure that Zuo Zongtang will never side with Zeng Guofan, and the two of them don't like each other on TV. Now look at Li Hongzhang.

At that time, the Huai army had come back to life. Although not as strong as the Hunan Army, it is still at the same level. In Li Hongzhang's style, it was impossible for him to risk the lives of his whole family to join Zeng Guofan's rebellion before the situation became clear. If Zeng Guofan went north, Li Hongzhang might respond to Zeng Guofan's call, and if the Qing Dynasty gained the upper hand, the Huai army might help eliminate Zeng Guofan. There is also the Hunan Army. I don’t think it is necessarily monolithic. After all, it is a matter for the nine major families. Those Hunan generals will not take it seriously. Then came the Qing Dynasty, when the capital city was captured, and the imperial court ordered Sengge Renchen to garrison in the north of the Yangtze River to prevent Zeng Guofan from rebelling. So I don't think if Zeng Guofan went to the north, he would take Beijing easily as some people said. Second, look at the political dimension.

Zeng Guofan founded the Confucius Institute with Kuang Fuxue, the political slogan of the Taiping Rebellion, to suppress rebellious officials and thieves and protect Confucianism from disaster. However, the Hunan Army was able to become the most powerful armed force in the Qing Dynasty, which had a lot to do with its values. If they rebel against the Qing at this time, they themselves will become traitors. This is politically untenable. How can we let those intellectuals work for us? All in all, if Zeng Guofan went to fight the Qing Dynasty, I dare say he only has a 60% chance at best. Of course, there are no ifs in history. I don't think Zeng Guofan, with his achievements in Neo-Confucianism, would have become a rebellious rebel, otherwise he would not have been praised by some as the first perfect man in history.

Why did Zeng Guofan refuse to wear a yellow robe? First, Zeng Guofan understood that the anti-Qing struggle heralded chaos. Zeng Guofan was a particularly introspective feudal intellectual. In such a profound and comprehensive reflection, Zeng Guofan re-established his power with great courage. In addition, the world powers at that time coveted China and regarded it as an untapped cake. The corrupt and incompetent Qing government could split at any time. It was already dead by then. I personally suppressed the Taiping Rebellion, witnessed and experienced the people's lives, and the scenes where the people had no life. And Zeng Guofan would never do that again. Maybe more sympathy for the world. Secondly, Zeng Guofan knew that civil strife would accelerate the country's demise. Zeng Guofan knew the Book of Changes very well and knew that a surplus was a loss.

In fact, Hunan seems to be the most prosperous, which may be the beginning of the decline of the Hunan Army. In 1864, Zeng Guofan controlled an army of 300,000 men on the surface, but in fact he controlled about 120,000 men. He only has 50,000 yuan. There are different factions, and the factions of Zuo Zongtang and Shen Baozhen are more influential. If Zeng Guofan rebels, Zuo Zongtang and Shen Baozhen will be the first to go. Nature struggles with its own people. Shen Baozhen and Zeng Guoquan had already encountered trouble when they attacked Nanjing. When Zeng Guoquan attacked Nanjing, there was a shortage of food and military pay. Zeng Guofan repeatedly asked Shen Baozhen to send people