After "hoarding grain", many countries began to "grab coal"! Coal prices continue to rise, focusing on three impacts

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The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified the volatility of the global energy market, with crude oil, coal, and natural gas prices fluctuating violently.

Although crude oil prices have fallen since they approached historical highs in March, they are still hovering above 100 US dollars per barrel. Recently, with the advent of summer, demand has increased and oil prices have risen again.

And natural gas is even more in short supply. Europe is highly dependent on foreign energy. The import dependencies of oil, natural gas, and coal are 72.30%, 59.61%, and 41.13% respectively, and Russia is Europe’s main energy importer. , especially the dependence on Russian gas is very high. About 40% of the natural gas in Europe comes from Russia.

Compared with oil and coal, the transportation and storage of natural gas is more difficult. It requires not only specialized LNG ships but also specialized LNG terminals. Therefore, when Europe is preparing to significantly reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas, it is necessary to Looking for alternatives, this is when the market started targeting coal.

1. Many countries have begun to "grab coal"

We already know that with the changes in the grain supply and demand pattern and the continued tight supply and demand, many countries have increased food protectionism and have begun to step up their efforts to Large food reserves.

On the other hand, in addition to "grain hoarding", the global market demand for coal has surged, and many countries have begun to "grab coal."

First of all, with the arrival of hot summer, there will be a peak of electricity consumption.

Take last year as an example. Affected by weather changes and other factors, the supply of new energy power generation was insufficient, and the market had to turn to dependence on natural gas and coal.

Extreme weather this year is still an uncertain factor. Therefore, in order to ensure sufficient power consumption, countries around the world have become more dependent on coal and natural gas.

Coal-fired power and gas-fired power can replace each other, but the cost advantage of coal-fired power is significant, so many countries have begun to "grab coal."

Secondly, the demand for coal substitution has surged.

In order to get rid of its dependence on Gazprom, Europe has successively suspended its coal phase-out plan, and the EU has decided to ban Russian coal imports from August 10.

This means that Europe must reserve sufficient coal before then, so Europe has begun to import large amounts of international coal. According to relevant estimates, Europe's coal gap will exceed 200 million tons.

Third, the impact of extreme weather continues.

For example, India, the world's second largest coal consumer, has experienced ultra-high temperature weather, which has doubled power demand since April this year and triggered the country's most serious power crisis in more than six years. China's largest coal company also announced last month that it would import coal.

2. The surge in coal prices has brought about three major impacts

As a result, under the influence of many factors, international coal prices have soared.

As of the end of May this year, the price of thermal coal in the three European ARA (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp) ports reached US$320.00/ton, while it was only US$69.25/ton at the end of last year, an increase of 362%;

The Asia-Pacific benchmark price, the thermal coal price at Newcastle Port in Australia, has also reached 436 US dollars/ton, an increase of 343% from the end of last year;

The thermal coal price at Port Richards, South Africa The coal price index is US$336/ton, an increase of 241% from the end of last year;

The price of coal in central Appalachia in the United States has reached US$136/ton, breaking through the highest point in 13 years.

As global coal prices soar, there will be three major impacts:

First, global power supply is tight and electricity prices are rising.

The first thing affected by the rise in coal prices is the power supply. For example, in Japan, there was already a shortage of power supply in March. The government has called on all people to save electricity and watch less TV. In the United States, 70% of the power grid is under high load operation.

The tight power supply will inevitably push up electricity prices.

European electricity prices rose at an alarming rate last year, and they are still continuing this year.

For example, in Italy, household electricity bills increased by 131% in the first quarter of this year. In Spain, electricity prices in February also increased more than 20 times compared with the same period last year. Many families in Germany said they could no longer afford electricity

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But obviously, this situation is getting worse, because with the arrival of summer, the temperature is rising rapidly, and a new round of power demand peak is about to usher in.

The second impact is the rising costs of coal downstream companies.

In addition to power generation and heating, coal is also an important raw material for many industrial products, such as cement, steel, fertilizers, etc.

Last year, with the rise in coal prices, the production costs of these companies were already rising, and they will continue to be under pressure this year.

Among them, chemical fertilizers have a greater impact on agriculture.

We all know that the supply constraints in Russia, a major fertilizer exporting country, have made the global fertilizer market extremely fragile. At this time, as the prices of coal, natural gas, etc. continue to rise, the cost of fertilizer production is further aggravated. , so it is expected that fertilizer prices will still be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the future.

Finally, let’s talk about the impact on our country.

As we all know, my country is a major coal consumer and the world's largest coal importer. Last year, my country imported a total of 323 million tons of coal and lignite. As international coal prices continue to rise, it also has a negative impact on domestic prices. had some impact.

First of all, as international coal prices continue to rise, they are in opposition to domestic prices and suppress import demand.

For example, the tax-included cost of transporting Indonesian coal to Guangzhou Port is about 2,262 yuan/ton, while the cost of transporting coal from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou Port is 1,241 yuan/ton. The price difference between the two is as high as a thousand yuan. /ton.

Affected by this, national coal imports fell by 12.7% month-on-month in May. It is expected that if the price difference continues to widen, imports will further decline.

Secondly, as the international coal price rises, it will provide certain support for the domestic coal market.

In particular, the proportion of imported coal in coastal provinces has always been relatively high. With imports shrinking, the market in coastal areas may remain tight in supply and demand.

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