Russia wants to invest more than 3 trillion rubles in domestic chips, why not cooperate with China?

In the past few days, it was reported that Russia has formulated a semiconductor localization strategy. It is estimated that by 2030, it will allocate a total of 36.5438+09 trillion rubles (about 250 billion yuan, about 39.3 billion US dollars) for semiconductor manufacturing, chip research and development, data center infrastructure and personnel training.

At the beginning of April, MIET (Moscow Institute of Electronic Technology) of Russia won a contract of 670 million rubles (about 565,438+0,000 RMB) from the Russian Ministry of Trade and Industry to develop a new generation of EUV mask aligner. The industry thinks that it is impossible to develop mask aligner with so little money, which has aroused heated discussion in the industry. For details, please see the book "Heavy! Russia invested 670 million to develop EUV mask aligner! What is the success rate? 》。

This paper first introduces the background and strategy of Russian semiconductor localization, and finally briefly analyzes why we don't cooperate with China and other countries.

After Crimea invested in Russia in March, 2065438+April, European and American countries successively issued a number of sanctions against Russia, prohibiting Russian financial institutions from entering the EU capital market, imposing an arms embargo on Russia, prohibiting the export of dual-use products to Russia, and prohibiting the export of high-tech equipment and high-tech products to the Russian energy industry.

At the same time, Russia's above-mentioned fields are highly dependent on foreign advanced technology products and international capital market financing. Medvedev pointed out at the Russian government working conference in April, 20 15 that Russia imported 90% machine tools and equipment, more than 80% civil aircraft, 70% heavy machinery, 60% oil exploitation equipment and 50% ~ 90% agricultural machinery. Due to sanctions, Russia imported foreign countries (including CIS countries) in 20 14. By 20 15, this amount has been greatly reduced to 81800 million dollars, only 40% of 20 14 years.

During the eight years from 20 14 to 2022, Russia has been subject to sanctions. In 20 14, the Russian central bank said that the GDP was about 1.03 trillion US dollars, with a growth rate of only 0.6%. By 20021year, Russia's GDP will be10.7 trillion US dollars.

However, after Putin came to power, Russia attached great importance to R&D investment in science and technology.

It mainly invests in the development and application of basic research, invention patents, advanced production technologies and achievements in the priority development direction of national scientific and technological innovation.

According to the information inquired by the author Challey, from 20 14 to 2020, the implementation effect of the federal special plan for giving priority to the development of Russian science and technology complex R&D has basically achieved the expected goal. During this period, it is planned to invest 654.38+0723 billion rubles, including 654.38+0395 billion rubles in the federal budget and 32.8 billion rubles out of budget.

Among the funds invested in the federal budget, capital investment accounts for 20.4%, and applied R&D investment accounts for 665,438+0.2%.

Most of the funds invested outside the federal budget are used for applied research and development, accounting for 96%. The results of implementing this special plan include: during the period from 20 14 to 20 19, * * * signed 28 12 contracts and agreements, with the amount of contracts and agreements reaching 1306 billion rubles, of which capital expenditure accounted for 65,438.

Scopus and Web of Science citation databases contain 7 core papers (70 1 article), with 5038 patent applications. The average age of researchers participating in the project is 40 years old, while the proportion of researchers under 40 is 6 1.5%. It attracted 60.5 billion rubles of extra-budgetary funds, and the extra R&D expenditure (including extra-budgetary funds) reached 654.38+0403 billion rubles.

However, by March this year, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the myth of "technology has no borders" was completely shattered.

Since March, from open source RedHat, Docker, SUSE and GitHub to Microsoft, Apple and Google. From chip suppliers such as AMD and Intel to semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC, all hardware and software, whether open source or closed source, have been withdrawn from Russia and restricted or sanctioned. It is even reported that with the help of cloud storage, data storage in Russia can only last for two months.

Therefore, although the economy is still difficult, Russia has invested considerable funds in the localization of semiconductors. From March 30th, the Russian Ministry of Trade and Industry invested 670 million rubles to develop mask aligners, and now the complete localization strategy of 365,438+09 trillion rubles, we can see that Russia's determination is very firm.

The Russian government's localization strategy is mainly to formulate a brand-new microelectronics development plan, with an investment of 3. 19 trillion rubles by 2030 (rounded to about 250 billion RMB, about 39.3 billion US dollars, and the exchange rate will fluctuate around 2022.4. 19), which is mainly used to develop local semiconductor production technology, domestic chip development, data center infrastructure, training local talents and self-made chips.

This plan will be finalized on April 22, 2022 and submitted to Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev for formal approval.

It is planned to invest 420 billion rubles (about 565,438+77 million US dollars) for developing new manufacturing technologies and subsequent improvements. One of the short-term goals is to increase the output of local chips by using 90 nm manufacturing process before the end of this year. The long-term goal is to achieve 28 nm chip manufacturing by 2030.

However, TSMC did this in 20 1 1.

There are about 70 data centers in Russia. The plan is expected to invest 460 billion rubles (about 5.65 billion US dollars), and by 2030, the number of national data centers is expected to increase to 300.

It is estimated that 309 billion rubles (about 3.8 billion US dollars) will be invested to develop at least 400 prototypes of new electronic products and carry out more than 2,000 research projects.

Planners also hope to increase the proportion of "talent transfer" of domestic university graduates from the current 5% to 35%.

In addition, the plan also includes creating at least 1000 design teams on the basis of existing and newly-built design training centers in colleges and universities.

At the beginning of April, author Challey wrote, "Russia invested 670 million rubles to develop EUV mask aligner! What is the success rate? It is mentioned in the article that the Russian Ministry of Trade and Industry has invested 670 million rubles (about 53 million RMB, about 8.3 million US dollars) to entrust the Moscow Institute of Electronic Technology to develop a new generation of X-ray EUV mask aligner.

It is mentioned in the article that MIET has been developing X-ray mask aligner 15 years.

"We are talking about long-term research and development. On the bright side, it should have started 15 years ago, "said Alexander Meiniche, author of Stimulation Magazine. "

Although the investment of less than100000 dollars is very small, Russia has the world's top mathematics talents, and there are follow-up investments. Now, additional investment in follow-up talents and chip manufacturing will soon be formally approved. Then the probability of success of this plan is much greater.

However, Russia lacks sufficient market. If it can't be standardized with other countries/markets, even if mask aligner is developed, it will be difficult to popularize. Therefore, cooperation with China, Indian and other countries can complement each other in capital, market and technology, thus improving the success rate of R&D and making faster progress.

Then, why should Russia make localization independently, instead of cooperating with the scientific and technological forces of China and other countries?

This problem may need to be analyzed from many aspects.

The first is the technical system. According to the above new standard EUV mask aligner, Russia has developed an X-ray mask aligner. Although China also conducted experiments, it proved to be too inefficient to be used on a large scale. On the other hand, Russia's practice in some applications of semiconductors is different from the mainstream in the world.

Secondly, the market goal, Russia's goal, whether in the next few years or in the past few years, is to meet the limited domestic civil market and important military market. In the past, Russia has not fully integrated into the global semiconductor market, so its target market determines its different strategies.

In terms of foreign cooperation, Russia is well aware that if enterprises from China are invited to cooperate, enterprises from China and other countries will definitely require deep participation, and Russia keeps its research and development technology very confidential. This negotiation process is difficult and long.

At the same time, China enterprises will also consider whether to cooperate with Russia, because this will lead to sanctions against China enterprises in Europe and America.

So both sides are considering it.

In terms of cooperation mode, the opportunity for cooperation may not have arrived yet. For example, the Russian GLONASS satellite system and China's Beidou satellite system only began to cooperate when both technologies were mature.

In the future, Sino-Russian scientific and technological cooperation may also be this way.

This may also be the true meaning of Russia's complete localization.

Author: Charley