The auto industry's bailout policy has been refreshed. How will the cold car market go in the future?

If car companies were still shivering in the cold wind of the car market two years ago, then the car market affected by the epidemic this year may be like a wind knife that abused everyone. Because the epidemic has been out of control for a long time, the domestic economy as a whole has declined, the imbalance between supply and demand in the automobile market, the stock market turmoil and many other factors have had a negative impact on the overall sales trend of the automobile industry.

Under the huge market pressure, car companies are eager for supporting policies in addition to doing everything possible to save themselves, just like the dry land is looking forward to rain. /kloc-in February of 0/5, Qiushi magazine published a programmatic guiding document on the epidemic situation at the central level, pointing out that "efforts should be made to stabilize residents' consumption. It is necessary to actively stabilize traditional large-scale consumption such as automobiles, encourage areas where automobile purchases are restricted to appropriately increase the number of automobile license plates, and drive the consumption of automobiles and related products. This seems to be a "timely rain", saving the car market anxiety.

It is worth noting that Foshan City, Guangdong Province is the first city to introduce measures to encourage automobile consumption after the outbreak. The specific car purchase subsidy rules are as follows: Foshan license plate owners buy new cars with old car sales invoices or car scrapping cancellation certificates, and each car is subsidized by 3,000 yuan; For the same consumer, one-time purchase of five or more large, medium and heavy passenger and truck vehicles (the unit price of vehicles is not less than 500,000 yuan), and each vehicle will be subsidized by 5,000 yuan; Consumers will get a subsidy of 2000 yuan for every new car they buy.

Now the epidemic has led to the national economic downturn, and policies to encourage automobile consumption have been continuously introduced. After that, I believe more cities will follow suit.

The auto market "Waterloo" has a wide range of accidental injuries.

As we know, since July 20 18, the automobile industry in China has experienced a continuous negative growth of 18 months. This trend is more obvious this year. According to the data released by the Federation of Passenger Cars, the national sales volume of narrow passenger cars in June was 654.38+0.69 million, down 265.438+0.5% year-on-year and 20.8% quarter-on-quarter. Regardless of the year-on-year comparison, this is the lowest growth rate recorded since 15.

According to the statistics of more than 20 car companies that have published production and sales data, except Dongfeng Honda, Changan Ford, Changan Passenger Car, SAIC Passenger Car and Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Car, the rest are on the rise.

As we all know, the automobile industry has a long chain, many links and wide coverage. Changes in the automobile market will first affect people who work in automobile-related units. We know that the number of employees in a slightly larger automobile enterprise will exceed 1 10,000. Of course, this is not the most important part. Those related groups, such as supporting enterprises, aftermarket service industries, logistics and transportation, which are closely related to automobiles, cannot estimate the losses involved. If this industry is seriously weakened, the loss of the whole national economy may be more than a few percentage points.

From the perspective of the industry itself, if it continues to decline, the intensity of market competition will further intensify, and our independent brands that we have worked hard to develop for many years will definitely be affected. Weak independent brands such as Lifan, Zotye and Haima, as well as emerging car-making enterprises such as Weilai and Weimar, will be more affected by the big environment. In the case that there is no way to make their own blood and the capital is hesitant about the automobile industry, the bankruptcy of individual independent brands will become a high probability event, which the whole industry does not want to see.

Will you buy a policy to stimulate car consumption?

Faced with such a market situation, both car companies, dealers and the government are trying to stimulate sales. From the central government's demand to stabilize automobile consumption to Foshan's offering of "real money and silver" to encourage automobile consumption, all these reflect the government's attention and sense of responsibility to the automobile industry.

In fact, China auto market is changing from "incremental era" to "stock era". When the "black swan" of COVID-19 virus appeared, the government's rescue of the market became full of challenges. In fact, before the epidemic, various favorable policies were released, but no signs of recovery were seen. For example, the "car going to the countryside policy" wants to tap the third-and fourth-tier rural markets, but farmers' income is limited. Except for light trucks, the sales of most models have not been greatly driven.

There are also documents to encourage cities with restricted purchases to release the number of restricted purchases. However, the congested traffic and scarce parking spaces in these cities are making some potential customers with spending power give up buying cars and choose Didi, Shenzhou and other travel services instead. With the deterioration of automobile environment and the increase of automobile cost, some people are giving up buying cars.

Lu Ge believes that although more cities will introduce policies to stimulate automobile consumption in the future, the driving force for the automobile industry affected by the epidemic is limited. Perhaps the most important thing is that China's economy will take off again. When ordinary people in China really have money in their pockets, they will buy it in buy buy.

Of course, something is better than nothing. Although the policy stimulus has limited effect on the auto market, now "confidence is more important than gold". As long as we firmly believe that the general trend of the automobile industry has not changed and we work together to overcome difficulties, everything will be fine in the future.

There is no doubt that more local governments will respond to the call of the central government and introduce various policies to stimulate automobile consumption, which is a big plus for consumers who are planning to buy a car. Although this is also beneficial to automobile manufacturers, they should do more detailed research on market conditions, consumer demand and new product research and development in order to enjoy the benefits brought by the policy.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.