Will the peak of infection in rural areas lead to a sharp rise in the prices of pork, eggs and vegetables?

There are less than two weeks before the Spring Festival. I believe many friends can't resist the desire to return to China. In recent years, many people haven't been home for three years because of the epidemic. I believe that many people will choose to return to China after the epidemic is lifted this year. After returning home, they inevitably have to sit together for dinner and talk about family ties, so as to alleviate the suffering of lovesickness. COVID-19 is mainly transmitted through respiratory tract. This kind of gathering behavior is likely to cause people who get together overnight to be infected, which is likely to cause the peak of infection in rural areas.

As an important supplier of pork, eggs, vegetables and other agricultural products, once there is a peak of infection, I am afraid it will affect the normal supply of agricultural products during the Spring Festival. Will the possible peak of infection in rural areas lead to an increase in the prices of agricultural products such as pork, eggs and vegetables? Recently, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference on epidemic prevention and control in rural areas, and some reporters also raised similar questions. How to prevent and control the spread of the epidemic on a large scale without affecting the supply of agricultural products?

First, from a higher policy level.

Mao Dezhi, deputy director of the Rural Cooperative Economic Guidance Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and a first-class inspector, said that in order to ensure the production and supply of "vegetable basket" products such as meat, eggs and milk throughout the country during the holiday season, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has made arrangements and arrangements, focusing on three aspects:

1, do a good job in production, the production of vegetables and northern facilities in the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, and do a good job in livestock and poultry breeding.

2. Smooth circulation.

Strictly implement the "green channel" policy for the transportation of fresh agricultural products, and ensure the convenient passage of "vegetable basket" products transportation vehicles.

3, compaction responsibility.

Implement the "vegetable basket" mayor responsibility system, strengthen monitoring and early warning, and reasonably guide market expectations.

If the epidemic situation is serious, the higher authorities will also organize and mobilize agricultural socialized service organizations, new agricultural business entities and farmers' cooperatives. , for farmers to carry out farming and seed generation, custody, fertilization and other custody services to ensure that agricultural time is not delayed and agricultural production is improved.

Second, judging from the current market price.

In fact, after optimizing epidemic prevention and control measures in various places, the prices of agricultural products such as pork and eggs have been declining.

Although the price of vegetables has risen, the increase is not big, which is completely within the acceptable range.

According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from February 30, 2022 to October 5, 2023/kloc-0, the price of pork and the price of eggs declined to varying degrees.

Among them, the price of pork dropped from 26.3 yuan/kg last week to 25.5 yuan/kg, down 3% from the previous month.

The price of eggs dropped from 1 1.26 yuan/kg last week to 10.76 yuan/kg, a decrease of 4.4%.

The monitored average price of 19 vegetables was 4.57 yuan/kg, up 6% from last week, but down 2.6% year-on-year.

At present, in a supermarket in Xicheng District, the price of pork belly is 19.8 yuan/kg, and pork belly is 25.8 yuan/kg. In a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing, the price of lean pork is 18.98 yuan/kg, and the price of lean pork is 29.98 yuan/kg.

The retail price of pork is much lower than before.

In terms of egg price, the reporter found that the price of eggs in a supermarket in Xicheng District of Beijing was 5.68 yuan per catty, which was also significantly lower than the high level.

Although the price of vegetables has risen, the price is still within the acceptable range. The reporter found that the price of vegetables in Xicheng District was 2.98 yuan/kg for green onions, 0.98 yuan/kg for Chinese cabbage, 0/.18 yuan/kg for white radishes and 3.58 yuan/kg for tomatoes.

Third, from the perspective of market supply.

The current production capacity of slaughtered pigs corresponds to the number of sows that can be bred in July 2022. At that time, the number of fertile sows in China was 4298 10000, which was equivalent to 104.8% of the normal population.

Considering that the temperature in July is not bad, the survival rate of piglets is high, and the non-plague is stable in the second half of 2022, which has little impact on productivity. In addition, in September and June of 65438+ 10, the market price was generally optimistic at the breeding end, and property hoarding was irrational, which led to the current high level of fertilizer production.

Therefore, the market supply of live pigs is still relatively loose.

According to Zhuo Chuang data, in February 2022, the number of laying hens in China was165438+79 million, down 0.2% from the previous month and up 2.5% from the same period last year.

In addition, during the week of 65438+February 29th, the average inventory in Zhou Du was 1.75 days, an increase of 0.28 days compared with the previous week, and the average circulating inventory in Zhou Du was 1.28 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared with the previous week. This is mainly due to the low consumption of eggs, which leads to high inventory at all levels, which in turn helps to ensure the subsequent eggs.

Fourth, from the consumption situation.

With the end of the peak of infection in various places, the number of mobile workers has increased, the consumption of catering has improved, and the demand for eggs, pork and vegetables has increased.

In terms of pork price, the recovery of consumption will drive the rapid consumption of overstocked pigs in the market. After the superimposed pig price falls below the cost line, the pig price will be reluctant to sell, and the pig price will rise before the Spring Festival.

However, with the protection of higher-level policies and the relatively loose supply of pigs, the increase in pig prices will not be great.

On October 8th, 65438/kloc-0, the price of pigs increased in different degrees.

But at present, the pig price in East China is still 7.7-8.5 yuan, Central China is still 7.5-8.4 yuan, South China is 7.5-9 yuan, North China is 7.6-8.3 yuan, Northeast China is 7.3-8.2 yuan, and Southwest China is 7. 1-8.2 yuan.

In terms of egg prices, it has also ushered in a certain degree of increase recently. The average price of eggs increased from1.65,438+0% to 1.5 yuan/kg.

However, it is generally believed in the industry that the increase in egg prices is only the arrival of the peak season of Spring Festival demand, and the short-term stocking demand in the terminal market has increased, resulting in a slight increase in egg prices. Considering that the production capacity gap of laying hens is not large, and the inventory at all levels is at a high level, and the policy support from higher authorities is superimposed, the price of eggs will not rise sharply. Even in late June, 65438+ 10, with the arrival of the off-season of seasonal consumption, egg prices will have a high probability of seasonal decline.

In terms of vegetable prices, it is normal for vegetable prices to rise in winter, because the production of open-air vegetables in the north has ended, and vegetables are mainly greenhouse vegetables. Comparatively speaking, the cost of planting vegetables in greenhouse is higher, the planting quantity is lower, and the freight in winter is higher.

The Spring Festival will also enter the peak season of vegetable consumption demand, and vegetable prices will further rise. However, considering that the vegetable planting area this year is higher than the same period of last year, the price increase of vegetables will not be great.