What impact do human activities have on this round of climate warming?

Judging from the current scientific understanding, the understanding that "human beings are the masters of the earth" has almost evolved into a joke. In fact, human beings should treat those we rely on with a grateful heart. To survive the earth. American lunar landing astronaut Ruth. Campbell, when he landed on the moon aboard the Apollo, what stirred in his heart was his love for the earth and his joy as a human being: The strongest feeling I felt when I landed on the moon was my deep love for the earth. The Earth, with all its faults, is perfect for us. As advanced life forms, human beings should learn to grow from the insights of others.

/From China.com community club.china.com/

The United Nations Human Settlements Program points out that there are currently 3,351 cities in the world located at low altitudes (below 10 meters above sea level). Coastal areas will be affected to varying degrees if sea levels continue to rise due to global warming. It is these 3,351 cities that are home to more than 60% of the world's population and occupy an important political and economic position in various countries. Professor Liu Xiaohan, the Chinese national representative of the Earth Science Group of the International Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research, pointed out that as soon as 2050, the Antarctic ice sheet may completely melt, and the sea level will rise by nearly 70 meters, posing a great threat to coastal cities around the world! ”

In 2009, the United Nations IPCC submitted a conclusion report to the Copenhagen Climate Conference that gathered 5,000 climate experts from around the world to diagnose the global climate. The report stated that if sea levels rise by 1 meter in the future, If the Arctic Ocean melts between 2020 and 2037, two-thirds of the world's delta areas will sink due to rising sea levels, including sub-hazardous areas such as the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam, the Irrawaddy River Delta in Myanmar, the Ganges River Delta in Bangladesh, and the Yellow River Delta in China. , the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Rh?ne River Delta in France, and the Nile River Delta in Egypt are the most dangerous areas.

The latest research report from the University of Colorado in the United States shows that one-third of the world's 33 large and densely populated delta areas. Two (22) are facing the dual threat of subsidence and sea rise. In the past 10 years, 85 large delta areas around the world have suffered severe flooding, resulting in 260,000 square kilometers of land being flooded. If sea levels continue to remain as currently predicted. If the rate increases, the area of ??flooded land will increase by 50% this century. The delta areas are divided into five levels according to their degree of threat. China’s Yellow River Delta has an area of ??approximately 160,000 square kilometers and a population of nearly 100 million. The Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta have ranked among the most serious. The Chinese Academy of Surveying and Mapping pointed out that the Pearl River Delta is the most affected area in China.

The Pearl River Delta has a low altitude, with most areas having an altitude of less than 1 meter. meters, 1/4 of the land is below 0.4 meters above the Pearl River base level (the height of a point relative to the base level), and about 13% of the land is below sea level, including most of Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, and Dongguan. The regional elevation is about 0.5-2.0 meters above the Pearl River datum, and many areas are currently protected by embankments. In 2007, the "Guangdong Climate Change Assessment Report" stated that under current conditions, sea levels will rise by 30 centimeters in 2030, and the Pearl River Delta may have an area of ??1,153 square meters. Kilometers of land have been submerged, with the urban areas of Guangzhou, Zhuhai and Foshan being most threatened; without tide control facilities, the submerged area could reach 5,545.69 square kilometers, and the scope would also extend to Zhongshan, Dongguan, etc.

China’s 2007 National Assessment Report on Climate Change stated that in the past 100 years, my country’s average surface temperature has increased significantly, with a warming range of approximately 0.5℃-0.8℃. In the past 50 years, my country’s warming has been particularly significant, with the average surface temperature increasing by 1.1%. ℃, the warming rate is 0.22℃/10 years, which is significantly higher than the global or northern hemisphere average warming rate for the same period. The annual average temperature warming rate in Guangdong is 0.21℃/10 years, which is equivalent to the national average. Among them, the Pearl River Delta region is warming The rate is the highest, reaching 0.3℃/10 years. From this point of view, the rapid warming of the Pearl River Delta in the past 50 years has made it a major warming area in my country.

Dr. Du Yaodong, a disaster assessment expert from the China Meteorological Administration, said that the climate warming trend in Guangdong will further intensify in the future, and the temperature may increase by 1.5℃ by 2020 and 2.7℃ by 2050. This is not alarmist. Due to the expansion of seawater volume and melting of glaciers caused by global climate warming, sea level rise along the coast of Guangdong and even around the world is accelerating. At the same time, he also warned that rising sea levels will raise storm surge levels. In fact, in the past ten years, the frequency of severe storm surges along the Guangdong coast has increased by 1.5 times. In 2008, Guangdong suffered a once-in-a-century storm surge brought by the powerful typhoon Hagupit.

Shanghai is the largest city in China. Shanghai has long been regarded as a key research object on earth climate issues. It not only uses Taihu Lake water, but also lives on the sea. It is susceptible to various storm surges. Urban construction has brought a large number of high-rise buildings, underground transportation and excessive mining. The water source puts her at risk of subsidence and rising seas. In fact, global warming has had a very obvious impact on Shanghai. In the past 50 years, the temperature in Shanghai's urban area has increased by 2.35°C, which is more than twice the national temperature rise during the same period and nearly four times the global data. Compared with other similar estuary cities in the world (such as Amsterdam, Houston, New Orleans, etc.), it is also more obvious.

As part of the alluvial plain of the Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai is the center point of my country's north and south coasts, located at the confluence of the Yangtze River and Qiantang River into the sea. At present, the average altitude of Shanghai is only about 1.8-3.5 meters, and the lowest point is only 0.91 meters. In the past 30 years, Shanghai's sea level has risen by 115 millimeters, higher than the national coastal average of 90 millimeters. For example, many low-lying areas in Dongtan in Chongming and Pudong near the sea have shown a trend of decreasing land area. If corresponding measures are not taken, some ecologically fragile areas in Shanghai will also face the risk of being submerged to varying degrees. The average sea level in Shanghai is 4 meters, and the sea level of the Huangpu River rises to more than 5 meters once the tide rises. If it continues to subside by 2 meters, Shanghai will immediately fall into a vast ocean.

The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) reports that sea levels along the coast of Shanghai will rise by 30 centimeters by 2050, and other scientific organizations believe this figure is 70 centimeters. According to research by the State Oceanic Administration, if there are tide-proof facilities, if the sea level rises by 65 centimeters, based on the historical highest tide level, seawater may submerge 13 acres of land in the Yangtze River Delta, including Shanghai, and the coast of Jiangsu. In other words, the Yangtze River Delta is rich in Most cities in the country will be flooded, including about 54,000 square kilometers in Shanghai, which is more than half of the entire Shanghai. Paul Brown, former editor-in-chief of the environment section of the British newspaper "The Guardian" and freelance writer, believes that Shanghai is considered to be one of the cities with a higher risk factor when it comes to global warming causing sea levels to rise.

The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) is one of the world's most prestigious and largest independent non-governmental environmental protection organizations. Since its establishment in 1961, WWF has been committed to environmental protection and has many organizations around the world. Nearly 5.2 million supporters and a network active in more than 100 countries. WWF's mission is to curb the deterioration of the earth's natural environment and create a better future where humans and nature live in harmony. To this end, we are committed to: protecting the world's biological diversity, ensuring the sustainable use of renewable natural resources, and promoting actions to reduce pollution and wasteful consumption.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes that climate change vulnerability has great heterogeneity in geographical space; comprehensive vulnerability analysis shows that the most vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in Chongming Dongtan, Dongping National Forest Park, Sheshan National Forest Park and coastal buffer zones; sub-vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in the northern part of Chongming Island, Hengsha, Changxing Islands, Nanhuikou, Hangzhou Bay coastal beach wetlands and the main water system of Shanghai; other areas are weakly vulnerable area or non-vulnerable area. The Shanghai vulnerability index is positively correlated with temperature and precipitation, and future climate warming may make the Shanghai area more vulnerable.

Under the influence of global warming, the probability of precipitation disasters in Shanghai in the past 50 years has increased by 5.3 percentage points compared with the previous 50 years; extreme maximum temperatures have begun to rise since the late 1970s, especially in 2003. The extreme high temperature of 39.6°C; changes in temperature, precipitation, and airflow have intensified the possibility of storm surges, and at the same time, the losses caused by storm surges have also increased. The probability of extreme weather events like the New Orleans hurricane is increasing. Lin Shanqing of the State Oceanic Administration said that rising sea levels will intensify marine disasters such as storm surges, coastal erosion, seawater intrusion, soil salinization and salt tides.

Wang Pinxian, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and professor of marine geology at Tongji University, said, "Sea level rise caused by global warming is already a worldwide problem; however, among China's coastal cities, Shanghai and Tianjin face challenges The most severe problem is mainly due to land subsidence. "According to the media, land subsidence in China has become more and more serious in the past 20 years, spreading from Shanghai to the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan and North China, and 95 cities have been affected by ground subsidence. Threat of subsidence. The 2002 book "Shanghai Urban Geology Towards Sustainable Development" mentioned: In the 44 years from 1921, when land subsidence was first discovered in Shanghai to 1965, the average amount of subsidence in Shanghai was 1.69 meters, with the worst place reaching 2.63 meters. The subsidence area has reached 1,000 square kilometers.

Reuters reported in October 2008 that in the 1970s, the Shanghai government actively recharged groundwater, significantly reducing land subsidence and even raising the surface. But in the 1990s, construction began in full swing in Shanghai, and the ground surface began to subside again. Although Shanghai is now taking steps to prevent excessive pumping of groundwater, the mushrooming of high-rise buildings will cause the ground to sink. Xu Shiyuan, a professor of geology at East China Normal University, said: "In areas where groundwater is used a lot or where high-rise buildings are densely populated, the problem is more serious." According to Ampolis, an authoritative building information organization, there are about 10,000 buildings in Shanghai higher than 10 floors, 80 of which are recent. Built in 10 years.

Liu Shouqi of the Shanghai Geological Society said that before 2000, Shanghai’s subsidence rate was 6 millimeters and has now reached 10 millimeters, and the cumulative subsidence since 1921 has exceeded 2 meters. The main reason is overexploitation of groundwater resources. Shanghai is a typical soft soil area. The rapid development of the city has caused super high-rise buildings to rise from the soft soil area. Together with the extraction of groundwater, the three-pronged approach has caused Shanghai to continue to decline. Since 1980, township enterprises have emerged in the areas surrounding cities in the Yangtze River Delta, and the scale of groundwater extraction has been expanding. Land subsidence has occurred in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area of ??Jiangsu Province and the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou area of ??Zhejiang Province, and is connected to Shanghai regionally.

The prosperous Shanghai has recorded the changes in China since ancient times, retained China’s unique Shanghai style, and has played a leading role in China’s economic development. It’s hard to imagine what would happen if Shanghai, China’s financial center, sank. A hundred years are not far away. How can cities that are predicted to sink, including Shanghai, turn the tide? Standing at a historical turning point of global climate change, how can these future "Atlantis" save themselves from danger? Plato told the world in the "Dialogues" that "the price of wisdom is contradiction, which is a joke that life makes on the outlook on life."

The planet we live on is affectionately called "home." ”, because it was she who gave birth to mankind. We know very little about this. After all, the development from human enlightenment to the present is only a blink of an eye in the 4.6 billion-year history of the earth. But looking at the development of this "home", I can't help but feel that her existence is really wonderful. It seems to be accompanied by inherent periodicity and regularity, and it seems so fragile and sensitive. From a very distant time, within a period of time, this law seems to have oscillated between balance and imbalance, and brought different results.

In ancient times, human beings used rough and emotional records to tell the vicissitudes and great changes of the earth, and even gave various predictions about the future, although the most scientific explanation could not be obtained at that time. With the development of wisdom and technology, humans have gradually unveiled the earth. At the same time, successive disasters have prompted science to seek more reasonable answers.

Qin Dahe, chairman of my country's National Climate Commission, pointed out in January 2010 that global warming is an indisputable fact and is by no means a random guess! Regarding the concept of "global warming", many people believe that global warming means rising temperatures. In fact, global warming can cause both rising and falling temperatures, with large fluctuations. In short, it will lead to a significant increase in extreme weather events.

In March 2010, Kuang Yaoqiu of the Chinese Academy of Sciences stated that the general trend is still global warming, but the minimum temperature is falling and the maximum temperature is rising. Therefore, the average temperature is still rising. The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is unlikely to cause global warming simultaneously, but it will lead to climate extremes. Because greenhouse gases can only have a warming effect in areas exposed to sunlight. As the concentration of greenhouse gases increases, the greenhouse effect further intensifies, and the atmospheric circulation will undergo significant changes: the greenhouse effect in areas illuminated by the sun will increase and the temperature will rise, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the expansion of the atmosphere above it. As a result, the atmosphere will compress in areas without sunlight. The result of atmospheric compression and sinking is that the weather becomes colder. This statement is the feedback mechanism after the earth's climate warms, that is, the impact of the greenhouse effect on atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation.

On March 26, 2010, Ren Fumin, chief expert at the National Climate Center, believed that the overall feeling is that extreme weather is increasing, but there is a lack of more historical data to prove it. Science cannot determine that a single event is directly related to global warming, and there is no necessary link between the occurrence of extreme weather and global warming. Global warming is only a general background. Only by collecting these extreme weather events and analyzing them as a whole can we determine whether they are related to global warming. For individual events, we can only say that they are caused by abnormal atmospheric circulation.

In the cold winter of 2009, Ren Fumin outlined four main influencing factors: First, abnormal atmospheric circulation. The main body of cold air in the entire northern hemisphere moved out of the polar regions, with the center in Siberia. The continuation of this pattern led to Large areas are abnormally cold; secondly, El Ni?o is close to the central Pacific, causing the seawater in the central and eastern parts to become abnormally cold, so it has a cooling effect; thirdly, volcanic activities have been frequent in the past 10 years, and volcanic ash has acted as a barrier to the earth, reducing the impact of the sun on the earth. The radiation can also lower the temperature; fourth, when the solar activity is strong, the external radiation is strong, and when the solar activity is weak, the external radiation is weak. The activity cycle of sunspots is 11 years. In recent years, the activity has been at a low level, which is also conducive to the cooling of the earth.

In fact, the scientific community has reached a consensus on the impact of atmospheric circulation on extreme climates. The debate is whether global warming will lead to changes in atmospheric circulation. Two hypotheses, then, will persist while scientists don't have an answer yet and probably won't find out any time soon. Under the premise of looking at the two scientific conclusions objectively, does it mean that we can take it lightly or ignore the possibility that "global warming will cause changes in atmospheric circulation"? The answer is obviously no.

Just one day after the Yushu earthquake in 2010, Chen Xuezhong from the Institute of Geophysics of the China Earthquake Administration expressed his views on global earthquakes. He believed that the world has entered seismic activity since the 8.7-magnitude earthquake in Indonesia in 2004. At the same time, he also proposed a new view on the cause of earthquakes, which lies in the change of the earth's rotation rate. Because the Earth's lithosphere is composed of blocks of different sizes and masses. When the earth's rotation rate changes, it will cause differences in the movement of these blocks. This differential motion may cause "rearend", "separation" and "friction" between blocks, thereby causing earthquakes. The earthquake energy comes from the kinetic energy lost during collision or friction between blocks.

Since the earth’s rotation speed varies every day, it is necessary to find out the rules. IERS, an international professional organization, has recorded the Earth's rotation speed every day since 1962 and found that the Earth's rotation sometimes accelerates and sometimes decelerates, with relative regularity. The long-term rotation speed changes have a cycle of about 10 years.

From 1993 to 2003, the Earth's rotation was in a state of acceleration, and since 2003 it has been in a state of deceleration; in one year, January to March and August to October are in the Earth's deceleration period, and April to July and November to December are in the Earth's acceleration period. . He found that the proportion of earthquakes in March and April and August and September every year is significantly greater than the natural probability. Strong earthquakes are most likely to occur during the exchange period of acceleration and deceleration in a year.

At the same time, Zhou Fulin, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and an anti-seismic expert, also used statistical data to show that "global earthquakes have entered an active period." He said that since 2009, there have been an average of 2.6 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above globally every month. By comparison, the average was only 1.6 times per month over the last century. The century-old average of earthquakes above magnitude 7.7 is two per year, and in the past nine months (May 2009 to April 2010), six occurred worldwide. Global earthquakes have entered a period of high activity. He said that from our country's perspective, our country was in an active seismic period from the 1960s to the 1970s, with the Xingtai earthquake, Haicheng earthquake, etc. After the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, it entered a quiet period until the late 1990s. Be active again. Generally speaking, an active period of earthquakes lasts from ten to several decades. Therefore, it is not yet known when this activity will end.

One of the experts who disagrees with the opinion that "global earthquakes have entered an active period", Zhang Shaoquan of the Institute of Geophysics of the China Earthquake Administration said on the day of the Yushu earthquake that frequent earthquakes around the world can only mean that the current seismic activity is strong. However, there is no unified standard in the industry for whether to enter a period of frequent earthquakes. He believes that these seismic activities are always strong in one period and weak in another period, because seismic activity is an inherent property of the earth itself. Earthquakes are the earth's ability to release and are a symbol of the earth's vitality. It is normal for the earth to release energy under various influences such as the high temperature and high pressure environment, the external environment, and the impact of planets on it. And he emphasized that because it is a "modern earthquake disaster", that is, due to urban and economic development and high urban population density, once a major earthquake occurs, the impact will be relatively large.

We have witnessed the earth quietly launching one disaster after another, and human beings being caught off guard and encountering deaths one after another. Under all this, the debate has become pale. As an author named Luo Fei said, "Human beings are spoiled children of the earth. He obtained the favor of the earth very accidentally and excelled among the children of the earth. Then, this arrogant child thought that he The smartest and most capable, he just learned some skills and proudly called them science, thinking that science is omnipotent. Then he lost his awe and felt that he could stand on the top of the earth and do whatever he wanted.

Faced with this ultimate problem, will mankind still insist on advancing rapidly in the so-called modern civilization? Or is it a dispute over so-called interests? The expression of human beings' reverence for nature is a way of elevating human speech to international dialogue, because this is not caused by one person, nor can it be solved by one country alone, since lonely human beings have nothing to do with the earth. There is power at all, so in the face of this planet-level issue, responsible countries must work together to deal with it with an equal attitude.

Once upon a time, we were so proud that we dared to declare to the world: Human beings are the masters of all things. But today, in the face of the increasingly severe disasters on the earth, we understand the fear of loss. Today, we can still mostly control our own destiny, but if we ignore this right and obligation today, once we lose it, humans will never be able to turn back and embark on the path of saving themselves.

Scientists are more convinced than ever that it is human activities that affect the climate, and that the resulting climate change is further intensifying. Global warming is already destroying everything we have worked so hard for. Just as what we said in "2℃ Changes the World" lists out the malignant changes and even destruction that the earth will experience for every 1℃ rise. The reality is that various extreme climate and geological anomalies have appeared intensively. The 2007 assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) officially stated that in the past 35 years, climate warming caused by human activities has had a significant impact on natural and biological systems.

It’s not just the visible facts that are worrisome.

The predictions of various civilizations in the world unanimously point out that 2012 will be the year of the return of the earth. The critical moment is approaching, and this topic has attracted more profound attention from the world. We don’t know what 2012 will be like at that time, but the ongoing problems on the planet are increasingly reminding humans how to save themselves.

The world's most intelligent scientists have called on different occasions: Humanity is step by step approaching the "irreversible point" of climate change - a 2°C rise compared to before the industrial revolution, and carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced immediately to reduce climate change. To slow down the rate of climate warming this century and beyond, given the lagging nature of the climate system’s response to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the best time to reduce emissions is today. Once the climate warming process exceeds a certain point in time, When climate change becomes significant, it will be very difficult or even irreversible for us to lower the temperature below the prescribed target value.

According to a Reuters report on February 7, 2006, the then British Prime Minister Blair pointed out in his speech that on the issue of climate change, if important policies and decisions are not made in the past seven years, Then it's too late. The time Blair mentioned is now only about three years away. Moreover, every year that is delayed, mankind will pay a greater visible economic price. Taking the losses from natural disasters caused by continued climate warming as an example, according to a 2006 report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), losses from natural disasters reached a record high of US$200 billion in 2005, and will continue to develop by 2050. , annual economic losses will reach 300 billion US dollars. The International Energy Agency predicts that every year of delay in curbing catastrophic climate warming will cost an additional $500 billion.

In a certain sense, we have lost yesterday, but we must not lose the future again. During the period before December 22, 2012, severe droughts, blizzards, hail, super heat waves, mudslides, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis and other meteorological and geological disasters will occur more frequently, as if to give us a warning Prophecy warns. Although scientists are working hard to crush the prediction of the end of the world in 2012, the deep harm caused to nature by human activities cannot be guaranteed to make the prediction come true if it is not corrected.

You can escape the first grade of junior high school, but you can’t escape the fifteenth grade. If we can escape 2012, can we escape 2016, 2056, or 2100? The world's top 10 predictions have all set the alarm clock for the Earth's disaster around 2012. Whether mysterious or absurd, the astonishing coincidences of predictions in ancient and modern times, at home and abroad, and in different historical periods are by no means accidental! Even if the clock rings normally on December 22, 2012, even if the sun rises as usual on that day, and even if the ten major apocalyptic predictions can be concluded as the ten major apocalyptic lies, human beings still cannot feel relaxed.

There is no need to clear away the mists of history or erase the dust of time. Human beings have already felt the pain of the earth. The alarm bells sounded by scientists in the past 20 years have never been questioned. The earth subsides and the sea rises, the tectonic plates shift, species become extinct... all of them are enough to throw human beings into the world of life and death without any effort! What's more, every kind of disaster on the precisely combined earth will not occur alone.

Looking back at the five mass extinctions of species in the 540 million years of the earth, those who were pushed to the guillotine were always the creatures who controlled the earth. At present, the door to the era of the "Sixth Mass Extinction" has gradually opened. Can humans beat time? Can human beings avoid being the tragic driver of their own destruction due to their own greed? Many scientists have sounded the clarion call for mankind to save itself: If mankind can rein in greed, stop harming the earth, and respect all life that is not just human beings, then the road ahead for mankind will be long and brilliant!

From the current scientific understanding, the understanding that "human beings are the masters of the earth" has almost evolved into a joke. In fact, human beings should look at the things they rely on with a grateful heart. To survive the earth.

American lunar landing astronaut Ruth. Campbell, when he landed on the moon aboard the Apollo, what stirred in his heart was his love for the earth and his joy as a human being: The strongest feeling I felt when I landed on the moon was my deep love for the earth. The Earth, with all its faults, is perfect for us. As advanced life forms, human beings should learn to grow from the insights of others.