Characteristics of iron ore

Iron ore in China is mainly distributed in Liaoning, Sichuan, Hebei, Beijing, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Yunnan, Anhui, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang.

According to customs statistics, in 2008, China imported 440 million tons of iron ore, valued at 60.53 billion US dollars, up by 15.9% and 79 1% respectively over the previous year. The average import price was 136.5 USD/ton, up by 54.6%. In the month of 65438+February, China imported 34.53 million tons of iron ore, a year-on-year increase of1.2%; The average import price was USD 89.7/ton, down 27.7% year-on-year and 26.9% quarter-on-quarter.

The main features of China's iron ore imports in 2008 are:

First, since September, the average import price has been falling continuously. Since 2008, the average import price of iron ore in China reached a peak of 154.7 USD/ton in August, and then began to decline in September, and fell to 89.7 USD/ton in February of 65,438, the lowest point in the year.

Second, state-owned enterprises mainly import. In 2008, China's state-owned enterprises imported 320 million tons of iron ore, a year-on-year increase of 1 1%, accounting for 72.7% of China's total iron ore imports in the same period.

Three, mainly imported from Australia, Brazil and India. In 2008, China imported1.800 million tons of iron ore from Australia, up by 26. 1% year-on-year. Imports from Brazil reached 654.38 billion tons, up by 3.654.38+0%; Imports from India were 90.97 million tons, up by 14.8%. Together, these three companies accounted for 84.3% of China's total iron ore imports in the same period.

In 2008, affected by the spread of the international financial crisis to economic entities, the steel industry contracted, resulting in a sharp drop in iron ore demand. According to statistics, in the first nine months of 2008, China imported 346.47 million tons of iron ore, with domestic and imported mines totaling 632.47 million tons, which exceeded the demand by about 64 million tons in the same period, resulting in an oversupply situation. At the same time, because the domestic spot market price was higher than the import agreement price at the beginning of 2008, the huge profits brought by the price difference induced import traders to hoard a large amount of iron ore. As of June 2008, 5438+065438+ 10, the port inventory increased by about 90 million tons, and the inventory outside the port increased by about 28 million tons.

The situation of oversupply has prompted iron ore prices to start diving sharply. At the beginning of September 2008, the CIF price of Indian mines was 136- 137 USD/ton, and in mid-June, 10 fell below 85 USD/ton, which was nearly 60% lower than the peak in March 2008. For the first time in seven years, the international spot price of iron ore is lower than the long-term contract price. As the world's largest iron ore producer, Brazil's Vale said in June, 2008 +065438+ 10 that it had withdrawn its request to increase the price of iron ore importers in China by 12%. On February 7, 65438, the Indian government also announced the abolition of the export tax on fine ore and reduced the export tax on lump ore to 5%, which will further lower the spot price of iron ore. At the same time, the sea freight has dropped again and again, further lowering the average import price in China.

The reversal of supply and demand in the iron ore market has created favorable conditions for China's ore price negotiation in the new year. Whether returning to the traditional pricing mechanism or unifying the iron ore trade price, China, as the largest demander, occupies a relatively active position.

Iron ore is the most important basic raw material for iron and steel industry. With the growth of the national economy's demand for steel products, the scale of China's iron ore industry is constantly expanding, and the demand for iron ore is also increasing year by year. According to customs statistics, from June 5438 to July this year, the iron ore imported from Ningbo Port alone reached16.03 million tons, up by 0.7% year-on-year, with a value of1kloc-0/billion US dollars.

There are three major problems in iron ore import.

First, there is a lack of international pricing power for resource commodities. China is a "big buyer" of many bulk raw materials in the world, such as oil, iron ore and soybeans. However, it has no right to speak in the international pricing of bulk raw materials, so it is necessary to bear the risk of speculative price increases in the international market at any time. In the {TodayHot} negotiations that ended on June 20th this year, China Steel Plant, represented by Baosteel Group, was forced to accept the price increase agreement of 19% for iron ore raw materials of three international mining giants.

Second, it relies heavily on imports, and the growth rate of demand is higher than that of supply, forming a seller's market. According to the report "Investigation and Evaluation of Resource Potential of Crisis Mines" by China Geological Survey, most of the existing metal mines such as iron ore in China were built in 1950s and 1970s. After decades of mining, two-thirds of the mines are in an aging state, and the reserves are seriously insufficient. In addition, in recent years, the investment in mineral exploration in China has been decreasing year by year, which has led to the depletion of many mine resources, the lack of backup resources to replace the base, and the production of enterprises is in trouble.

Therefore, the basic pattern of iron ore supply and demand in China is as follows: on the one hand, the demand continues to be strong; On the other hand, the supply is seriously insufficient. If we can't make a breakthrough in the exploration and substitution of resources, the dependence of China's iron ore resources on the international market will further increase.

Third, the increasing dependence on iron ore imports has become the weakness of China's iron and steel industry development, which makes China's iron and steel industry and overall economic development subject to people to some extent. The risks mainly come from the following aspects: First, it may face the test of joint price increase by international suppliers. Many domestic iron and steel enterprises have the right to import and operate iron ore, and the production demand is urgent, but the procurement is too scattered and the suppliers are relatively concentrated, which makes domestic enterprises in a passive position in price negotiations with foreign iron ore suppliers; Second, it faces the test of rising ocean transportation costs; Thirdly, in the face of the test of international hegemony, terrorism and local wars, once the countries related to China's iron ore transportation line have political turmoil, the safety of China's iron ore transportation line cannot be ignored.

Although the international supply of iron ore is relatively sufficient at present, it is still necessary to nip in the bud from a strategic height and take comprehensive measures to minimize risks.

First, promote the diversification of iron ore import market, realize stable and reliable import supply, and ensure the production demand of China iron and steel enterprises.

Australia and Brazil are the world's largest producers of iron ore. With the continuous large-scale M&A activities in the international iron ore mining industry in recent years, a few multinational companies have dominated the global iron ore export trade rights, and iron ore has become a high-profit industry. At present, India, South Africa, Canada, Peru, Venezuela, Mexico and other countries have also started iron ore production, and gradually become the world's iron ore export reserve base. India, in particular, has proven iron ore reserves of 654.38+0.7 billion tons and annual output of 654.38+0.2 billion tons, making it one of the countries with the largest iron ore reserves and output in Asia. Moreover, the transportation distance between India and China is relatively short, so China enterprises should constantly expand their import sources according to the changes in the international market, focus on the future and diversify their risks.

Second, consider establishing import procurement trust, and strive to control import costs through joint procurement and signing long-term order contracts.

China is a big importer of iron ore. If we change the status quo of decentralized procurement, we are fully capable of influencing the international trade price of iron ore. In view of the rising price of iron ore in the international market, domestic trade associations and related enterprises should organize themselves to import iron ore uniformly and enhance their price negotiation ability with iron ore suppliers. Signing long-term purchase contracts will also help reduce import costs.

The third is to promote domestic iron and steel enterprises to "go global" and increase the intensity of overseas investment in mining development.

At present, some domestic iron and steel production enterprises have taken gratifying steps in overseas investment and development of iron ore resources, and achieved initial results. However, mine production requires large investment, long payback period and high risk. On the basis of full certification and careful planning, relevant enterprises should make strategic investment in mines in countries or regions with development potential to ensure the stable supply of medium and long-term iron ore.

In addition, we should strengthen the exploration and development of domestic mines, improve the competitiveness of domestic iron ore, appropriately control the scale of domestic steel production, avoid redundant construction, promote the coordinated and healthy development of domestic steel industry, and ensure the safe and stable operation of China's national economy.