It is also the two ultimate trends of Sequoia's shareholding, pat and thick capital …

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It is also the two ultimate trends of Sequoia's shareholding, pat and thick capital …

Text | Bottle Senior

In 2007, four outstanding graduates from Shanghai Jiaotong University got together and founded the first P2P platform in China-Paipai Loan.

In 20 12, Paipai Loan was invested in Series A by Shen Nanpeng, director of Shanghai Jiaotong University and partner of Sequoia Capital, and kept ahead in the subsequent Series B and C financing until the Paipai Loan Platform went public. Appeared in the list of shareholders of listed companies, holding 23.7% of the shares, and it is the second largest shareholder, second only to the founder Gu. According to the 20 18 annual report, the shareholding ratio of Sequoia Capital in the auction loan decreased from 23.7% to 9.4%, and a * * * sold the equity of 14.3% in the auction loan.

In 20 14, Sequoia Capital invested in another P2P platform, Houben Finance, with a shareholding ratio as high as 40%. The management team this time is not academic, but from Sunshine Insurance Group.

The same is Sequoia's shareholding, auction and loan, and thick finance. The former earns 2.5 billion yuan a year, constantly increasing the proportion of institutional funds and restricting retail investment; The latter is suspected of economic crimes and has been put on file for investigation by Shanghai Pudong Branch.

Almost at the beginning, why go to two extremes?

1

On August 20th, Paipai Loan, which has been listed on NYSE for nearly two years, released the second quarter financial report of 20 19. In the first half of 20 19, the operating income was 30.2 10 billion yuan, an increase of 50.67% compared with 2.004 billion yuan in the same period last year. The net profit reached 65.438+36.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.53%.

The following is the performance of the auction loan in the past three years, which has been growing rapidly. Even after the thunderstorm of 20 18 and the strong supervision of 20 19, it still maintained a performance growth rate of 50% and 30%.

At the same time, the proportion of institutional funds rose sharply in the second quarter, from 30.9% in the first quarter to 44.8%. It rose to about 53% in July. The number of partners of financial institutions increased from 15-20 in the first quarter of 2009 to more than 20 in the second quarter. The management predicts that the further growth of financial institutions' financing and the guidance of loan contribution will reach 70% in the third quarter, which will offset the decline of P2P loans.

On August 10, after the implementation of the "three reductions" requirement, the daily amount of auction loans dropped significantly. According to a preliminary estimate, there are only one million units per day, which can almost be regarded as a transitional period for suspending the issuance of bids.

However, while limiting the scale of P2P, the trust products of auction and loan began to appear in the market. XX trust products, the income is 8. 1 ~ 8.6%/ year, and the priority is low. The term is from 65438+February to 65438+August, and the loan consulting service is provided by the affiliated company of Paipai Loan.

Gradually, the auction loan will develop into the next "fun shop". There is no P2P platform, and the loan funds are entirely from institutions.

Almost all other well-run head platforms will move towards this mode, including Lexin, Xiaoyin, 5 1 and so on. Even second-rate piggy banks will sell trust products in the market.

Since then, retail investors can participate less and less.

2

Let's go back to Houben Finance.

On August 22, according to the response of the partner China Property Insurance, Houben Finance was suspected of economic crimes and has been investigated by Shanghai Branch Oriental.

What is suspected economic crime? Do I have to smoke?

Economic crime is a very broad concept, the most common is corruption and bribery, but "no smoking" is also the most common in P2P field. Before the specific police announcement, it is temporarily impossible to confirm the specific charges of the platform.

Houben Financial official website Operation Report shows that by the end of July, the loan balance was 654.38+065.438+005 million yuan, and the current lender was about 654.38+060 million yuan.

In addition, Houben Finance failed to disclose audit reports, audit results of key links, compliance review reports and other materials as required by the letter cover, nor did it dock with the letter cover system of China Mutual Gold Association.

Previously, according to investors of Houben Finance, it took Houben Finance three or four months to return the money due for the new tender. Even for the thick insurance covered by China Property Insurance, it takes 1.5 months to get the money back, and the liquidity problem is more serious.

Sequoia is also a shareholder and a platform in Shanghai. Compared with the pat-pat loan, which still maintains strong growth today, Houben Finance seems to have reached the end of the road …

three

Houben Finance was previously regarded as a "small but beautiful" platform by some investors for three main reasons:

First, Sequoia holds 40% of the shares;

The second is the entry of institutional funds;

Third, China Property Insurance underwrites.

Now:

Sequoia is still that sequoia. As a venture capital institution, there are often cases of investment failure. In addition to the loss of capital, the responsibility of not participating in platform operation is limited.

This institution is no longer that institution. It is understood that the institution that cooperates with Houben Finance is Nanyue Bank. 2065438+In July 2006, Guangdong Banking Regulatory Bureau announced that it approved Guangxin Holdings to invest 6,543.803 billion shares in Guangdong Nanyue Bank. It accounts for 17.28% of the total share capital after capital increase and share expansion, and becomes the largest shareholder of Nanyue Bank. Xinguang Holdings once became a hot topic in the market because of debt default, and Zhou Xiaoguang, the chairman of Xinguang Holdings, the richest woman in Zhejiang, also stepped down from the altar. As a result, institutional funds continue to decrease.

China P&C insurance is still the original China P&C insurance. As an underwriting institution, a lot of information is confirmed by China P&C Insurance official. The entire operation and customer service of Houben Finance under investigation are close to paralysis. Judging from the current communication between investors and China Property Insurance Company, property insurance companies have a more positive attitude towards the subject matter insured.

four

Houben Finance is one of the few platforms for filing the subject matter of insurance.

Generally speaking, once the platform is positioned as "illegally absorbing public deposits", it will be included in asset recovery. In this process, all the funds will be collected into the special fund account first. As an investor, you can't get the money back for the time being. Only when the case is clear and the court decides will it be uniformly distributed. In the current environment, as long as there is no serious self-fusion of false labels, the platform will generally not be classified as "non-suction".

Is there a platform that has been filed but is still in normal operation to continue repayment?

Yes, Dianrong, Lettuce Finance and Piaobao have all been put on file, but they are all in the normal operation stage and continue to issue bids to collect money. According to the response of lettuce financial personnel, there are many forms of filing a case.

Coincidentally, they are all platforms in Shanghai, and so is Houben Finance.

This matter, for Houben Finance, will not be thunderous immediately, but at least it will make debt-to-equity swap more difficult. The "post-insurance" contracted by China Property Insurance Company will also be paid according to the insurance clauses, and the non-insurance subject matter will bear certain bad debt losses.

As for the report, there is no report yet, but to be on the safe side, you can prepare relevant materials first.

five

No matter whether it is a well-managed loan or a poorly managed thick fund, the final outcome may be the same, and they must withdraw from the stage of online lending.

Only by relying on its own risk control level and profitability, the auction loan can be smoothly transformed, from P2P mode to loan-assisting mode, and then to "fun shop" mode.

However, the extremely high operating costs and heavy liquidity problems seem to be unbearable. Under the guidance of policies and with the assistance of public security departments, risks will be gradually eliminated.

In the next six months and a year, all platforms will probably go in these two directions.

The regulatory authorities have always said that filing or regulatory pilot is only the "cake" of the industry.

Ask incense, there is;

If you want to eat, the road is long and blocked.

I am a bottle.

Looking forward to growing up with you.

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