Where will Alibaba go from here?

Everything should be treated rationally.

12 On February 24th, according to the report, the State Administration of Market Supervision initiated an investigation into Alibaba Group Holding Co., Ltd.' s "two-in-one" and other suspected monopolistic behaviors. At present, as soon as this matter comes out, it has been on the hot search in the first time.

Ma Yun and Alibaba are really unlucky. First, the listing of Ant Group was stopped, then the construction of Lakeside University was stopped, and now it is suspected of monopoly. Ma Yun also changed from a hero worshipped and admired by young people to an evil "capitalist" overnight.

In a recent public speech, Ma Yun turned what people used to call "Father Ma" into a "capitalist" and a "vampire", and all kinds of opposing voices were heard. What people spit out the most is that Ma Yun said the most "996 is a blessing".

In just half a year, why is there such a big difference in the word-of-mouth between Ma Yun and Alibaba? How to treat it rationally?

First, there is more than one monopoly.

The expansion of capital will inevitably lead to monopoly, which Marx explained more than 200 years ago. Market economy is still the economic form dominated by capital production mode, but in the leading force, the state and public ownership are the deployment forces. If we don't understand this, we will graft the western mode of economic production to China, or expand capital in China in the western way, and there will never be a future.

In BAT, monopoly is an indisputable fact. The competitors of Taobao and Tmall are JD.COM and Pinduoduo, and Alipay owns half of WeChat payment. If you are hungry, it is not as good as the US Mission. Shrimp is also surrounded by a large number of software such as Netease and qq music.

The other two, one is that after Google withdrew from China, the other monopolized the domestic search engine market. China search engine who doesn't use Baidu? Who doesn't use Baidu everyday? There is a second one with such influence. However, Baidu's user experience is not satisfactory. Small software downloaded from the internet before can be used at any time. Who dares to use small software now? All advertisements, all kinds of viruses. As soon as I opened the web search, all kinds of swindler companies, false advertisements followed, and online medical care, each one was more scary than the other.

Tencent focuses on games, chat software and other businesses. Just saying a WeChat and QQ is enough for people to live without it every day. However, there are some random games in the criticized "king pesticide", which makes many parents very headache and demands to boycott bad games. Isn't this a monopoly?

But compared with the other two companies, Ma Yun acted too high-profile a few years ago, which is one of the reasons why he was shot.

Second, the times created Ma Yun, not Ma Yun.

Many people think that Ma Yun has changed the times and brought convenience to life, changes in consumption patterns and prosperity of e-commerce. So he was highly praised, thinking that he created a miracle of the times, and he once became a hero and idol in the hearts of teenagers. But many people don't understand that it is the achievements of 40 years of reform and opening up that have created Ma Yun, which is a big background of the times.

Ma Yun's success is made by the times. People who ate crabs at the beginning of reform and development have mostly succeeded today. It is not that they can really change history, but just catch up with the wheel of history. Without Ma Yun, we would see another Zhang Yun and Liu Yun.

Third, universities are not clubs, and businessmen cannot become consortia.

Lakeside university, which only recruits successful businessmen, is not a real university with a university signboard. Formally, it is more like a club between businessmen and a private club between the rich. The richest people in the country get together regularly to study, and people with a little financial resources are recruited one after another.

Businessmen are all profit-seeking, and they can't afford to get up early without profit. What will these people say when they meet together? What would you do? Will interest groups control the capital market and form a big monopoly group? Like American Trust? Even if there is no such idea, what will outsiders think? Businessmen are bound together to form a consortium, will they use this to overhead the market and capital?

This is a very dangerous signal. Whoever you are, don't touch it.

Fourth, the development achievements are obvious to all. Only by strengthening market control can we develop better.

For Ma Yun and Alibaba, it is a great contribution to the social development of China. Although his word-of-mouth has declined, his contributions to the convenience of payment methods, lifestyle changes, rural teachers and desert management are real.

Flower buds are not the culprit of early consumption, but people. Even if there are no flower beds, there will be various credit cards and various online loans. The situation will be more chaotic and more people will suffer. In recent years, the state has made every effort to crack down on online loans and campus loans, which is why.

However, the nature of capital is profit-seeking. After the reform and opening up, economic development and market supervision are not in place. Just like a runaway wild horse, all kinds of competition and disadvantages began to appear. It is also common that bad money drives out good money. If the country wants to rectify the market, it is bound to strengthen supervision. Ma Yun acts in a high-profile manner, and it is logical for him to start rectification.

Rectification is only for better development. The people of China still want to thank the entrepreneur cloud for promoting social development, but no matter how much an enterprise or entrepreneur has done, they can't challenge the bottom line. They should bring blessings to most people and be modest and prudent. Only in this way can we have a better future and not be regarded as capitalists and vampires.

In my opinion, there are three possibilities for Alibaba's direction: either complete nationalization, reorganization and split, or eventual bankruptcy.

The best outcome of a completely domestic Alibaba is to be completely domestic or even nationalized. For Alibaba's current situation, this ending is the most favorable for it.

Let me talk about the composition of Alibaba's shares first. Presumably, many people are familiar with the entrepreneurial history of Alibaba.

1999, Ma Yun founded Alibaba in Hangzhou. In 2000, after a 6-minute meeting with Masayoshi Son, Ma Yun received a $20 million investment from Softbank of Japan. Ali also welcomed the largest shareholder, Japan Softbank.

In 2005, Alibaba welcomed its other major shareholder, Yahoo America. Alibaba and Yahoo announced that they signed a cooperation agreement in 2005. Alibaba acquired all the assets of Yahoo China, and at the same time obtained an investment of $654.38 billion from Yahoo, enjoying the exclusive right to use Yahoo's brand and technology in China. Yahoo gets 40% of Alibaba's economic benefits and 35% of the voting rights.

For a long time, Softbank of Japan has been the largest shareholder of Alibaba, while Yahoo of the United States is the second largest shareholder of Alibaba. These two foreign companies accounted for more than 60% of Alibaba's shares, so it was no exaggeration for Alibaba to say that it was a foreign company at that time.

However, the turning point of things happened at 20 10.

At that time, the People's Bank of China issued the Measures for the Administration of Payment Services of Non-financial Institutions. In order to obtain the payment license of Alipay, Ma Yun secretly split Alipay from Alibaba, and transferred the equity of Alipay to the pure domestic company "Zhejiang Alibaba E-Commerce Co., Ltd." under his own name, thus realizing the holding of 100% of domestic enterprises.

This is the famous "Alipay vie Incident". For a detailed explanation of this event, interested parties can read my article:

At the beginning, if there was no state supervision, Ma Yun would have lost the control of Alipay! Where is the chance to talk nonsense on the Bund?

Starting from this incident, Yahoo's share in Alibaba continued to decrease until it finally disappeared. As the largest shareholder, Japan's Softbank is also constantly reducing its shareholding in Alibaba.

According to Alibaba's 20 19 prospectus, among Alibaba's shareholders, Softbank currently holds 25.8%, Ma Yun holds 6. 1%, Cai Chongxin holds 2.0%, other executives hold 0.9%, and Volkswagen holds 65.2%.

Yahoo, the second largest foreign shareholder, currently has no shares in Alibaba. Softbank, the largest foreign shareholder in Japan, also has a sharp decline in its shareholding ratio, and its influence on Alibaba is completely different from before.

It can be seen that in the development process of more than ten years, Alibaba's management team is constantly diluting and reducing the proportion of foreign capital and constantly moving closer to the whole domestic capital.

Everyone understands this truth. With Alibaba's current influence, if it is controlled by foreign capital, its influence on China will be very significant. Therefore, if Alibaba wants to develop continuously in China, domestic investment is an inevitable choice.

Even at a critical moment, it is not impossible for Alibaba to be nationalized if necessary.

The second trend of Alibaba being reorganized and split is that it may be reorganized and split, which is also one of the most severe and effective ways to crack down on monopoly.

In 2020, it should be a very difficult year for Ma Yun and Alibaba. This year, Ma Yun and Alibaba kept negative news and fell into the whirlpool of public opinion.

First, Ma Yun's speech at the Bund Summit. He was criticized by the official media for his fierce words. What followed was that the listing of Ant Financial, led by Ma Yun and known as "the largest ipo in human history", was stopped by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Ma Yun has also experienced the indifference of the world and the warmth of human feelings. In the past, a large number of young people worshipped Ma Yun very much, and even affectionately called him "Father Ma". However, Ma Yun, who was at the forefront, immediately fell from the altar, and online criticism of Ma Yun was endless. Ma Yun also disappeared from public view for three months until recently.

As the saying goes, "It never rains but it pours." After Ma Yun stepped down from the altar, Alibaba was investigated by the state for adopting a "two-choice" strategy in competition with other e-commerce platforms.

To tell the truth, it is really not unfair that Alibaba was investigated by the state. Because everyone can see how many battles Ali and Tencent have fought and how many unicorn enterprises with great potential have finally declined in the ten years since the development of Internet in China.

From 3q war to taxi war, from * * * enjoying bicycle war to take-away group buying war. Up to now, the Internet in China is no longer the "multipolar pattern" in the past, but Tencent and Ali are now "sharing the world".

According to relevant statistics, at present, Ali has invested or acquired more than 500 enterprises in China, and Tencent has invested or acquired more than 800 enterprises. All fields and industries have Ali and Tencent. Their crazy expansion has seriously affected the healthy development of Internet in China, and even affected the normal life of ordinary people.

At many meetings, the state mentioned "preventing the disorderly expansion of capital". Ali was put on file for investigation, which should be regarded as a powerful action of the country.

However, monopoly and expansion have always been the original sin of capital.

Perhaps now, under pressure, the monopoly and expansion of capital have converged. However, once the favorable opportunity is seized, monopoly and expansion will continue.

Or, blatant monopoly and expansion may be criticized and suppressed. However, capitalists are very smart and will gradually transfer the apparent monopoly and expansion to the underground and carry it out in secret.

For enterprises suspected of serious monopoly, restructuring and splitting is one of the most severe and effective methods.

The United States leads the world in this respect. In American history, there are many enterprises seriously suspected of monopoly, which were eventually forced to split by the US government. For example, in 19 1 1 year, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that the monopoly of Standard Oil Company in the United States was illegal, and ordered the dissolution of Standard Oil Company and its division into more than 30 small oil companies.

Although there is no clear legislation in this regard in China at present. However, with the development of time, I believe that China will continue to improve in this respect.

Once Alibaba really has a serious monopolistic behavior and has a significant impact on the country or people, it is imperative to reorganize and split Alibaba.

Final Bankruptcy For Alibaba, final bankruptcy should be its most miserable ending.

In 2004, on the occasion of the 5th anniversary of Alibaba, founder Jack Ma delivered a passionate speech. In his speech, he mentioned that Alibaba wanted to be a 102 company, which was born in the last year of the 20th century. If it is completed in 102, it will span three centuries and Alibaba will surely become one of the greatest companies in China.

Whether Ma Yun's grandiloquence can be realized is still unknown.

But from 1999, Ma Yun founded Alibaba in Hangzhou. So far, it has been 22 years.

In these 22 years, the e-commerce industry in China has developed rapidly, and so has the Internet industry. In the tide of e-commerce and Internet development, Alibaba has grown from a little-known company to a giant that now affects China and even the world.

Alibaba's tentacles have extended to all industries and fields in China. Whether it is film and television finance or mobile payment; Whether it is tourism food or agricultural technology, Alibaba's investment can be seen everywhere.

Today Alibaba has grown into a towering tree. But its own problems are also very serious. The first thing to bear the brunt is crazy monopoly and expansion.

On the point of crazy monopoly expansion, Alibaba has aroused strong dissatisfaction from many people, and the state also launched an investigation in last year's Ultimate Revenge.

In addition to monopoly and expansion, Alibaba's popular "996 working system" and "end compulsory kpi elimination system" have long been vomited by many people.

Ma Yun's phrase "996 is a blessing" was scolded by many netizens. Alibaba's "forced kpi elimination system" was also opposed by many employees and finally had to be cancelled.

Alibaba's management team has been trying to recommend Alibaba's domestic processes for nearly ten years, and has also achieved good results. But it is still unknown whether the goal can be achieved smoothly in the end.

Once the nationalization of Alibaba fails, the shares will be controlled by foreign capital and will be subject to stricter supervision. At that time, Alibaba's road will become more and more difficult.

Under the leadership of capital, the original sin of Alibaba's monopoly expansion, if not effectively adjusted or reformed, will inevitably become a heavyweight bomb to detonate Alibaba.

Also, the future Internet industry is full of many uncertainties. Although Alibaba now has an extremely powerful influence, who can guarantee that it will not slowly decline in the tide of the development of the times and eventually go bankrupt?

After all, there are really countless Internet companies that have been to the legendary swordsman, but ended in tragedy. For example, Tianya community, once a smash hit, is now half dead; Renren. com Com and Xin Kai. Com, which once swept the country, has disappeared, disappeared.

Therefore, the most serious and tragic trend of Alibaba is likely to end in bankruptcy. Although this possibility seems slim at present, it is not impossible.

Finally, to sum up, I think Alibaba will have three trends: either completely domestic, or reorganized and split, or eventually bankrupt.

Of course, the friendliness of these three trends is obviously that the first is greater than the second, and the second is greater than the third.

Alibaba's management team has continuously diluted and reduced the proportion of foreign investment in the past decade, which is the most powerful proof. Because they also know that Alibaba wants long-term development, domestic capital and even nationalization, which is king!

There is a strong feeling that if some capitalists do not restrain themselves and try to control people's livelihood with capital power, they will eventually shake the state machine and interfere in state affairs, which will not lead to a good end, and may only lead to a tragic end ...

Businessmen, chasing capital and profits is understandable, but they should do their duty. There is nothing wrong with having money in your hand, but you should do your duty.

In front of the state machine, even wealthy businessmen should keep their duties and don't do things that "mess up" the country beyond their duties.

If you are a big capitalist in a capitalist country, congratulations: you can really do whatever you want with money!

However, you are in China, which is a characteristic socialist framework based on1400 million ordinary people and based on public ownership. So, you still have to keep your duty!

Whether it is Alibaba or Tencent, as long as you know the law and abide by it, you will be "hello, I am good, everyone is good", but once you are "kidnapped" by capital forces and do something that touches the core interests of the country and infringes on the interests of the vast majority of ordinary people, then, unfortunately, you will be swept out of the house!

People who have no times, only people with times. No matter how great an individual is, he is just a hero created by the times. Don't be too inflated or even get carried away, otherwise the ending can be expected!

And capitalists, their ambitions expand rapidly with the snowballing wealth in their hands, which is their essence! There are many billionaires in China, but how many are entrepreneurs with state responsibility like Huawei, Fu Yaocao and Gree Dong Mingzhu?

I see some people's inflated ambitions. They expect not only bulging wallets and increasing bank balances, but greater benefits brought by power and power!

Watch, if you don't converge, some people will be unlucky and fall down until they are doomed!

Why do you ask?

What the state opposes is industry monopoly, especially the monopoly of the financial industry! Alibaba, including Tencent, Meituan and other enterprises, will have no problem as long as they operate legally, compete in an orderly manner, control barbaric expansion and are under the effective supervision of the state.

In short, the thinking of enterprises should not be too advanced and the pace of expansion should not be too fast. They must conform to the actual development level of the country at this stage, so ZYZF will definitely encourage and support enterprises including Alibaba to walk on the broad road of Socialism with Chinese characteristics.

There are three possibilities: 1. Go abroad for development. First, American listed companies, whose development depends on the attitude of the capital behind them. If China continues to make progress, it goes without saying that once China goes bad, foreign capital will definitely leave. 2. Great loss. Platform e-commerce, to put it bluntly, means inaction and no responsibility. It just provides a platform for others to sell things. After attracting people, it earns money from merchants and consumers by selling traffic and doing finance. In the past, the state opposed economic virtualization and anti-monopoly, and then there was competition for market share. The era of platform e-commerce with empty gloves and white wolves is gone forever. 3. Be divided or changed hands. The platform has little technology and is highly replaceable. There may be a lot of loans and investments in the early stage of IPO. The base camp here has been completely copied by a company, and its own logistics services can't keep up. This is not easy to get through, and it is inevitable that it will be split and changed by the controller.

Alibaba is here and can't go anywhere.

The listing of ants was stopped, and the national anti-monopoly seems to have begun to target Ali. The People's Daily also published an article asking Internet giants not to look at these two cabbages. At that time, it seemed that Ali was in danger.

In fact, everything is just an illusion. The state intends to restrain the influence of internet giants on people's livelihood and important pillar industries, but the restraint is not obliterated. Later, they said that they would look to the star of science and technology, which meant that it was only to correct the direction now.

As for why the rumors are so serious, and even rumors to dismember Ali, it is just because Ma Yun has offended too many industries and people along the way.

After careful calculation, the impact on the financial industry forced the financial industry to reform, and the physical store was hit, which led to the market dying for a while. Coupled with a series of industries such as express delivery, it is even necessary to transform the vegetable market and grab the life business of vendors.

So the wall is crooked, and it is normal for people to push it. As for whether it can be pushed down, that is another matter.

What is the theory of too big to fail? It's too early to say. Ali's downfall should also be the result of market competition, and it will not be accomplished by administrative intervention or attack, which violates the original intention of the market economy.

There is no such thing as killing fat sheep, and there is no need to worry about these dark corners in the gutter.

Of course, the dragon slayer who has grown into a dragon slayer may not have committed the original sin of capital, and intervening in the vegetable market has violated the bottom line of morality and public welfare. It is unrealistic to just want to take the opportunity to liquidate Ali.

When China took off, China's attitude was always clear. It will neither slaughter fat sheep to thank the world guests, nor set norms and space restrictions for unicorn-like Internet giants.

The signal is not murder, so there is no need to interpret it too much.

Internet is not an anti-monopoly place, and Internet giants should have more social responsibilities.

After several domestic Internet giants achieved the leading market position by relying on innovation and subsidies, the concentration became higher and higher, and the whole market resources were accelerated to concentrate on the head platform, which had a huge negative impact on the whole Internet and traditional industries.

While driving industry innovation, these domestic Internet giants also gained a monopoly position through competition, and then started anti-competition and anti-innovation, which finally hindered the progress of the whole industry.

65438+February 65438+April 4, the State Administration of Municipal Supervision issued a paper of punishment and officially issued an anti-monopoly bill on the Internet. Hay Knife, Ali Investment, Tencent Reading Group and SF Honeycomb Box all violated the Anti-Monopoly Law because of their related acquisitions, and were each fined 500,000 yuan.

This can only be said to be a signal, which is far from the anti-monopoly measures in the United States. China people like to talk about openness, so it is obviously not enough to set the beginning of anti-monopoly strike hard with such strength.

Many years ago online shopping, users could choose the lowest and most favorable order, but now it is difficult to find the same thing on different platforms. Merchants are forced to adapt to the trend of "two choices" and simply turn the same thing into a different model.

In recent years, Internet giants have basically committed the original sin of capital, rampaging in many industries, trying to reshape the industry system, which actually conflicts with the functions of the government. Therefore, restraint and discipline are inevitable, and others really don't need to be over-interpreted.

The reform of the people's livelihood industry is good, but we must also take care of morality and vulnerable groups.

Ali's impact on the banking and financial industry eventually triggered a fierce counterattack from ants to suspend listing, indicating that the impact of electronic payment on the financial order has reached its limit, and further deepening may not be a good thing for the current national pillar industry financial industry.

It's too big a step. It's easy to say that.

All along, the advanced concepts of electronic payment brought by Alipay and WeChat are constantly attacking, and the traditional financial industry is struggling to cope. However, Ali and Tencent do not have the ability to reorganize the financial order after destruction, nor do they have the ability to sublimate the overall financial structure of China. The upgrading of China's financial industry is obviously not king.

As for whether Ali should engage in scientific and technological innovation, this is a matter of different opinions. Ma Yun personally said that he is not a scientific and technological talent. The People's Daily doesn't mean to let Internet giants rush to engage in science and technology, but to let them have a far-sighted vision. Don't continue to sink into the industry of national economy and people's livelihood, thus affecting and controlling the basic industries involving people's livelihood.

The most representative is the recent crazy community group buying. Under the crazy subsidies of the giants, the bottom vegetable farmers and markets bear the brunt, and countless ordinary people are directly deprived of their jobs. Some suppliers and places say no to this kind of low-price dumping.

The vegetable market does not need to be reformed, but it cannot be launched by Internet giants. It should be noted that the vegetable market, an ancient industry, also involves moral and public welfare issues. Many vulnerable groups engaged in the vegetable market industry, such as the elderly, are unable to adapt and change under the baptism of cruel price competition on the Internet, which will lead to many social problems.

Entering the people's livelihood industry, competing with the people and rebuilding the social structure may be the most wrong step of the Internet. The greatest thing about China's economy lies in its overall balanced development. When you rise, you also need to take into account morality and public welfare.

Rough cancellation of e-commerce will not restore the glory of physical stores.

The existence of e-commerce is the supplement and enrichment of commodity trade, and e-commerce is a way of commodity trade. People like online shopping, which shows that it has a market.

The depression of physical stores is obviously a problem of economic structure. In economic development, productivity is underdeveloped and social dividends disappear. But the operation of e-commerce also has certain advantages. There is no tax and rent, and the cost is lower. But why should e-commerce be opposed to the real economy? Can't e-commerce and the real economy be unified?

At present, there is no case of perfect combination of e-commerce and entity in the world, because e-commerce in China has reached the forefront of the world. However, the state's tolerance of e-commerce development does not condone the disorderly development of e-commerce and destroy anything, unless that industry can be reborn after being destroyed.

At this point, the rude cancellation of e-commerce can not restore the glory of physical stores. But when it comes to e-commerce, it will only be rudely destroyed, and this financial unicorn is too underestimated. The purpose of the country is to correct and adjust, let e-commerce attack and rebuild the glory of physical stores.

As for how to rebuild, in fact, the handle is in the hands of e-commerce, and the direction, national policies and public opinion have been tilted.

Ali won't go anywhere, because its roots are in China, and it can't go anywhere. Without China's billion-dollar market, Ali would no longer have its past glory. The key is whether we can adapt to the adjustment of policies. As public opinion has said, looking up at the starry sky and the sea, we will no longer compete with the people for profits, and we will no longer just destroy and not build.

It's time to go! As long as the national government does not destroy him, Ma Yun and Alibaba can't help him. Alibaba is fine, don't worry!

Yes, where should Alibaba go from here?

This is also the country's love for Alibaba, and also a toast to it, pulling it back from the drunken dream to the edge of the cliff!

No matter how capable people are, they should also know who they are clearly. Follow the party's policies, and you can't override everything by yourself. This is an insurmountable red line!

In 20 17, Alibaba spent 177 billion yuan to acquire offline retailer Yintai. For such a major merger, Alibaba actually did not report to the national anti-monopoly agency, but directly took the lead.

The country didn't say, it was watching you perform, watching you toss, and watching how you stop.

In June, 2020 165438+ 10/0, the State Administration of Market Supervision issued the anti-monopoly guide for platform economy, aiming at the alleged monopoly of giants such as Ali, Tencent, Meituan and JD.COM!

This shows that the country's patience has reached its limit, and it has clearly seen the value of giant hegemony, monopolized the flow advantage, and mastered the power of life and death in the manufacturing industry. China is not a capitalist country, and the people's right to exist cannot be in the hands of a few people, which is the fundamental reason why we are different from a capitalist society!

As I said before, an excellent entrepreneur should have feelings and patriotism. We should look at the problem from the height of the times, not just the immediate interests. In fact, the country has already pointed out the direction for them.

Internet giants with massive data and advanced algorithms should have more responsibility, more pursuit and more achievements in scientific and technological innovation ... The sea of stars in scientific and technological innovation and the infinite possibilities in the future are actually more exciting! This is advice, this is comfort, and this is the greatness of national love. Remember, whoever you are.

Never challenge the bottom line of the country! The real king sees the world!

Personally, I think Alibaba will get better and better. Today, banks have many changes and changes that benefit the people. I think without Ma Yun, the bank will not change for at least 10 years. It is precisely because of Ma Yun's advanced consciousness and lofty aspirations that we have the benefits today. If Ma Yun wants to go far, change and develop with rhythm, he can't rush for success. After all, you have to give people a break. I support Ma Yunting.

Extremes must be reversed.

It is also an indisputable fact that Ma Yun will effectively crack down on the physical store business. In the face of the closure of a large number of physical stores across the country, we don't know whether the national tax revenue has increased or decreased.

When he touches various industries with his abundant funds with almost no cost (for example, four links and one delivery, Ma Yun has basically completed the equity participation in Tongda Department) ... We may see such a scene: a towering tree rises from the ground, but because the root system is over-developed, the antenna is too long and the radiation radius is too large ... So the weak plants around him are dying of thirst, and finally the desert begins to appear. ...

A tree in the vast sand sea,

Endless sadness draws loneliness,

One will be famous, the bones will dry up,

What does the old horse mean?