What would happen if the Japanese in the Midway naval battle believed the result of the war chess deduction and gave up?

1. Why didn't the Japanese army believe in the result of war chess deduction-

After all, the deduction of war chess is only a deduction, which often takes into account all possible situations, including some situations with low probability of occurrence in actual combat. It can provide some enlightenment for decision-making, but it does not represent all. In the previous "Battle of Bois" (the attack on Pearl Harbor), there were various situations in which the joint fleet was in distress before the war (for example, off the coast of Hawaii, the US Pacific fleet was unexpectedly hit hard, and the participating ships could not refuel at sea because of the bad sea conditions, which could not last ...), and at one time they even made pessimistic plans to hand over at least two aircraft carriers to Oahu. It was only then that the Japanese navy had made up its mind to go to war with the United States with all its might. In addition, Isoroku Yamamoto is not optimistic about the Japanese navy's battle plan of "gradually reducing the invitation to attack" in the past, and insists on preempting the Pacific fleet at the first time in the war to solve worries. It can be said that no matter how bad the result of the war chess deduction is, it is necessary to do it at all costs. The result is far from the most optimistic estimate of the Japanese before the war, and it has dealt a heavy blow to the Pacific fleet at a very small cost, which may have given some people in the joint fleet an idea: the last seizure of Pearl Harbor was scared for a long time, but nothing happened in the end. So this time it is estimated that there is something wrong with the deduction on the map, which is as insignificant as last time.

Needless to say, from February of 194 1 year to April of 1942, the Japanese army attacked the city and plundered the land all the way in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Ocean, achieving the goal of "the first stage of operations" ahead of schedule at a cost far lower than expected before the war, and hundreds of thousands of unprepared allies surrendered. In this case of triumphant progress, the whole of Japan has fallen into a narcissistic "victory disease", which inevitably overestimates itself and underestimates the enemy. In the Battle of Coral Sea at the beginning of May, the Fifth Air Force (Shoukaku and Ruihe) with relatively low training level in the first air fleet still managed to sink two fleet carriers at the expense of Shoukaku's serious injury (here, the Japanese army misjudged the result, in fact, only the Lexington was sunk and the Yorktown was injured) and several other enemy ships, including battleships and cruisers. In fact, only 1 destroyer and 1 fleet oil tanker were sunk, but the performance of American aircraft carriers in the battle was not so amazing (on the 8th, a considerable number of American aircraft carriers directly ran in the wrong direction and couldn't find the target, but the dive bomber group hit Shoukaku hard, while the torpedo fleet simply turned over a blank sheet of paper, and the wildcat fighters were struggling in the face of zero war, so it was not surprising that they were ignored by the Japanese). Therefore, it is reasonable for Yuyuan to react that "the US military should not be so strong" and "weaken" the combat effectiveness when the "US military" deduced on the local map raided the No.2 aircraft carrier of the mobile unit from the flank.

2. What was the real situation of pre-war deduction?

(Read more information before making a comprehensive revision. )

In many works, it is described as follows: When the "Japanese Army" attacked Midway Island with an aircraft carrier, the "American Army" aircraft carrier played by aviation staff Gong Ao Wu Zhi suddenly shot from the flank, and as a result, the mobile troops were caught off guard, and Chicheng and Kaga were judged to be "sunk" on the spot, which was almost exactly the same as the subsequent naval battle of Midway Island; However, Yu Yuanyuan, chief of staff of the Joint Fleet, was dissatisfied with this result and thought that the strength of the "American Army" was overestimated, so he forcibly changed the judgment that Chicheng was "injured" and Kaga was "sunk", and then inexplicably revived Kaga, who had been judged as "sunk", to participate in the next round of FS operations (the scheduled attack on the South Pacific in July after the completion of MI operations) ... But is this really the case? In fact, this statement confuses several different things. It is true that Yuyuan changed the deduction result out of his own will (actually representing Yamamoto's will), but the actual deduction process is not the case.

In the preparatory stage of MI operation, some Japanese noticed a problem: Midway Raider had almost no warning force south of Midway Island-of course, the American fleet could not come from Japan in the west, nor could it come from Aleutian Islands in the north, which could not be reached by wind and waves. There is a submarine warning line arranged by the Japanese army in the east, and the mobile forces themselves will send reconnaissance planes to search the eastern waters, which can basically be covered by reconnaissance. Only the south is the blind spot for Japanese reconnaissance, because the raiders attacked Midway Island from the northwest, which means that it is impossible to effectively search the southern waters blocked by Midway Island before taking the island; However, because Midway Island is in the northwest of Hawaii, it is common sense that the Pacific Fleet is likely to take the shortest route to the south of Midway Island (but in fact, due to the insight into the Japanese military's operational attempt, the US aircraft carrier quickly left Oahu to ambush the northeast of Midway Island before the Japanese submarine warning line was in place, and suddenly launched a side attack on the mobile fleet attacking Midway Island from the northwest). So in the deduction, a staff officer (unknown) set that the US aircraft carrier suddenly appeared in the south of Midway Island at the beginning of the raider. As a result, the enemy who unexpectedly appeared in the blind spot of Japanese reconnaissance caused a "heavy blow" to the mobile forces and the Second Fleet. However, the upper level of the joint fleet does not want to see such a result. The script they want to see is that it was not until midway was attacked that the US military realized that it was in a hurry. When the U.S. aircraft carrier arrived, the Japanese army had already taken Midway Island as planned, and then it was natural to pull away and kill the U.S. aircraft carrier from a distance, thus denying this hypothetical situation that was not conducive to the Japanese army. Of course, considering that the Japanese didn't expect that their intelligence had been leaked, just setting the American aircraft carrier in the reconnaissance blind spot at the beginning of the Raiders really meant something like "anti-golden finger" (if the intelligence hadn't been leaked, I really couldn't think of the reason why the American aircraft carrier would wait for him in the south of midway in advance). Unfortunately for the Japanese army, however, Americans have just opened their "golden fingers" in intelligence.

(However, the American aircraft carrier did not appear in the south of Midway Island-aware of the strength gap between the enemy and the weak, Nimitz believes that the only hope for reversal lies in the Japanese aircraft carrier attacking Midway Island with all its strength from the flank, rather than confronting the enemy head-on. Later facts also proved that Nimitz's idea was basically correct. )

In the subsequent deduction, the other two hypothetical situations were also rejected. One is the inference of Matsuda, a fleet staff officer. When Song Tian played the role of "American Army", he chose to stay in Hawaii and could not avoid war. As a result, I was embarrassed immediately after the deduction. Some staff members criticized Song Tian for being too passive and lacking enterprising spirit. To be fair, if Nimitz didn't get the information in advance, in the case of a sudden attack on Midway Island, would he take the risk of sending an aircraft carrier fleet to attack and rescue, or would he choose to lay down his life to protect the car, just like the faction that represented the commander of the Pacific Fleet in the battle of wake island before (of course, the morale of the people will plummet again, and their jobs will definitely be lost ...), which is really debatable. However, I'm afraid that the reason why the joint fleet doesn't like this kind of deduction is that MI is not only fighting to win a few tiny islands, otherwise it's not worth fighting with the joint fleet in their nest. Attacking midway is only a means to lead the Pacific fleet to a decisive battle. If the Pacific fleet chooses to hang a war-free card, what's the point of the Mi operation that Yamamoto and others are wholeheartedly pursuing? Because Midway Island is too far away from any Japanese forward base, the supply is difficult to maintain, and the main fleet can only cruise here for about a week at most. In other words, if the US troops don't take the bait in a week, Yamamoto will leave the garrison on the island and go home with the fleet. Then the battle of rice was just to win an island with small land and little value, and the biggest goal was never achieved. In fact, it still failed (however, it is not good for Americans to come too early. If the American aircraft carrier appears too early, it is the problem of reconnaissance blind spot mentioned above, which is also an unacceptable script for the joint fleet. Therefore, in order to cooperate with Yamamoto's battle plan, the US military must appear neither early nor late ...). Therefore, Song Tian's interpretation was also rejected.

Finally, talk about the interpretation of the Olympic Palace. It is true that the "American Army" played by the Olympic Palace has dealt a heavy blow to the mobile forces, but it should be noted that the Olympic Palace actually plays the shore-based aviation of midway, not the American aircraft carrier. As a result of deduction, the plane taking off from midway "sank" Chicheng and Kaga. Yuyuan believes that this overestimates the strength of the US military, so it is "weakened". If this is taken into account, it seems that Yuyuan Garden's practice of changing the deduction result is not so bad. When the Japanese army thought that Midway Island was unguarded, only limited aviation power was deployed on the island, which was indeed the case in history. The Pacific Fleet only strengthened the Midway Air Force after the Japanese army decided to attack Midway in mid-May, and by the time of the war, there were nearly 100 assorted combat aircraft. But even so, the Midway Air Force lost more than half in the morning of the 4th under the fierce attack of mobile units (fighter units were wiped out in the first attack against Japanese carrier aircraft, bombers and torpedo units suffered heavy losses in the air raid on mobile units in the morning). By noon on the 4th, Midway had only two fighters available, leaving only about six SBD and six old SB2U bombers. There are also some B- 17 long-range bombers and PBY seaplanes, which have little effect on sea attack. If the U.S. aircraft carrier task force didn't win the naval battle, the second attack planned by Nanyun would completely destroy most of the combat effectiveness of the Midway Air Force, and the air strikes by shore-based aviation on mobile units during the whole Midway Campaign didn't achieve any noteworthy results. None of the bombs of shore-based aircraft landed on the Japanese aircraft carrier (only the PBY reconnaissance plane was on No.4). From this point of view, although tampering with the deduction result is an act of self-deception, the actual situation of this matter is not "prophecy" as described in some works.