Analysis on the present situation and development trend of red wine industry. Who owns it?

In recent years, with the continuous development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of residents' income level, coupled with the implementation of the government's policy of promoting domestic demand, the people's future consumption ability and confidence have been boosted, effectively stimulating the consumption demand of China residents for wine.

At the same time, the support of the national industrial policy and the good development momentum of the wine industry have promoted the continuous expansion of the wine market in China. According to the data of "Special Consultation Report on Opportunities, Challenges and Coping Strategies of Internet for China Wine Industry" by Prospective Industry Research Institute, at the end of 20 12, the wine output of China wine enterprises above designated size (enterprises with annual sales of more than 20 million yuan) reached 138. 16 kiloliter, doubling every five years on average, with a compound growth rate of/kloc. The main business income of wine production enterprises above designated size rose from 4.768 billion yuan to 43.846 billion yuan, an increase of 86.5438+09.

Time magazine. In 20 13 years, due to the changes in the consumer market and the continuous impact of imported wine, the prosperity of China wine industry declined, and the output dropped to 1 178 kiloliter, and the main business income of wine enterprises above designated size dropped to 4081700,000 yuan. The development of 20 14 industry rebounded slightly. Wine production enterprises above designated size realized the main business income of 42.057 billion yuan, up by 3.04% over the previous year, and the output decreased by 1.44% to1161000000 kiloliters. By the end of 20 14, there were 2 17 wine production enterprises above designated size in China.

The rapid growth of wine demand in China attracts foreign wines to enter China continuously, which brings great impact to domestic brand wine producers. Since 2008, China's wine imports have been growing at a high speed, with annual growth rates of 24% and 365,438+0% respectively, increasing year by year to 426 million liters and 2,573 million US dollars in 2065,438+02. In 20 13, the total amount of wine imported from China was 406 million liters, down 4.65% year-on-year.

2.398 billion US dollars, down 6.83% compared with 20 12. In 20 14, the amount of imported wine in China was basically the same, with 409 million liters of imported wine, up 0.87% year-on-year, and the total amount of imported wine was $22/kloc-0.30 million, down 7.69% year-on-year. Imported wine still has a certain impact on the cabinet market.

Since 2006, the profit margin of domestic wine industry has generally maintained an upward trend, mainly because the sales price of wine products has risen steadily under the strong demand in the wine market, which basically offset the impact of the increase in packaging costs and other expenses. After the financial crisis in 2008, the industry profit margin fluctuated briefly, but it recovered to the best level in history at 20 1 1. In 20 12, the profit margin of China wine industry decreased, mainly due to the continuous increase of imported wine, which brought great impact to domestic wine enterprises. By 20 13, the domestic wine consumption market has changed, and the sales of high-grade wine have fallen sharply. The continuous impact of imported wine on the domestic wine market has affected the profit rate of the industry to some extent. 20 14 industry data shows that under the impact of consumption structure and imported wine, the profit rate of wine industry has further declined.

1. China wine market will grow rapidly in the next three to five years.

China has been civilized for thousands of years, and it is impossible without wine. "No banquet without wine, no joy without wine". Although this is more about liquor, with the rapid economic development and social progress in China, people's drinking habits are quietly changing. This change can be seen everywhere around us. The people who are still fighting for liquor on the wine table are almost sixty or seventy years old, and the body of forty or fifty years old has not allowed too much. However, the post-80s and post-90s are a new generation that grew up after the reform and opening up. Their drinking habits are obviously different from those of their parents: everything is deep and boring, and the passive drinking style is not easy to see in them. On the contrary, it is more active and free to drink.

In the next three to five years, the post-80s will gradually become the mainstream of society, and this generation will love wine far more than liquor, because the consumption habits of the post-80s and post-90s will change, and a large part of the liquor market will be replaced by wine in the future.

In recent years, domestic and foreign wine enterprises and wine knowledge dissemination training institutions are actively promoting wine knowledge. A few years ago, these were only the participation of a few elites, and wine was a luxury in a high-end atmosphere. But in a few years, we will see a lot of alcohol training going deep into second-tier cities, alcohol marketing going deep into third-tier cities, and coastal provinces such as Zhejiang and Fujian even reaching township-level markets. The popularity of wine knowledge is getting higher and higher. Wine is no longer so mysterious and unattainable in the hearts of China people. I believe that wine knowledge will become more and more popular in China in the next three to five years.

New media such as Internet, Weibo and WeChat have developed rapidly in China in recent years, and their influence has been recognized by Chinese people. New media has not only brought about changes in people's lifestyles, but also promoted changes in traditional business models. New media is a new fashion, and wine is a fashionable product, so when wine meets new media, it will definitely make waves in the industry. The combination of new media and wine, such as buying wine and wine beauty network, completely ended the profiteering era of wine industry; The rapid sharing of WeChat has turned countless rookies into less than half experts. Undoubtedly, these new media will continue to develop at a high speed in the next few years, which will greatly promote the development of China wine market.

According to industry statistics, the total market of Chinese liquor is only about 30 billion, which is still a "little brother" compared with the market of hundreds of billions of liquor. However, with the change of people's consumption habits, the popularization of wine knowledge and the promotion of new media, we believe that China wine will grow rapidly or even explosively in the next three to five years.

Second, the three dilemmas of the domestic wine industry

China wine market can be simply divided into domestic wine and imported wine. In the future, who will have a better chance to catch the bullet train with the rapid growth of China wine market?

At present, domestic wines are mainly Changyu, Great Wall and Dynasty, which are traditionally regarded as the first camp in the industry. At present, the second camp is Wei Long and East China, and the third camp is mainly local brands, such as Yunnan Red, Hansen, Tian Tong, Huang Xuan and Yiyuan Mogao. In fact, the development of China wine industry is quite abnormal. There are three obvious phenomena in domestic wine industry: first, the first camp system is limited; Second, the second camp lacks stamina; Third, the third camp is difficult to break through.

In-depth analysis of the three phenomena is behind the three major problems existing in the domestic wine industry, which will still be the three major difficulties restricting the development of domestic wine in the next three to five years.

Difficulty 1: the system is closed. Domestic first-line liquor enterprises, whether liquor or wine, are mostly state-owned or influenced by the state-owned system. The most obvious domestic wine enterprises are dynasties. It should be said that the dynasty is indeed the representative of China wine brands, but because of the limitation of the system, it has hardly developed in recent years, and the reform in the south has been dragged to death by the framework of the system as soon as it has achieved results; Let's talk about the Great Wall again. After the merger of COFCO, there is still no misunderstanding. Changyu should develop better, and the reorganization has brought it surging development momentum, but if the first camp develops independently, it will still change the big pattern of the industry.

Difficulty 2: Insider. China liquor culture has been passed down for thousands of years, and it is endless and profound, so it can support the high added value of its brand. Compared with liquor, liquor in the modern sense has really developed in China for more than 30 years. Although people in the industry have been talking about the thousands of years of wine history in western China in recent years, after all, it is only in the industry, and the historical gap cannot be repaired. Compared with the history of wine development in Europe for thousands of years, our wine obviously lacks cultural background. It is this important reason that affects the promotion of the added value of domestic wine brands, which is also the most difficult point for Chinese wine to break through. Judging from the present situation of domestic wine industry, it is still difficult for the industry itself to form a joint force (this part is discussed in another article) to guide people to further understand the value of domestic wine. In fact, everyone in the industry knows that the wine from Ningxia defeated the famous Bordeaux wine in France in a blind tasting competition held in Beijing on 20 1 1, which reappeared the grand occasion of the 1976 classic American-French wine competition. This is enough to explain the development of China wine in recent years, but this information is only circulated in the industry. The author has been engaged in the marketing and promotion of first-line domestic wines for many years, and often encounters consumers' disapproval of domestic wines. When I first met them, I was very upset and calmed down a lot after rational analysis. This difficult breakthrough requires the joint efforts of domestic wine brands, especially the first and second camps, but the reality is that only Zhang Yu's family is desperately shouting, the dynasty and the Great Wall are still struggling in their own quagmire, while Weilong is focusing on the concept of "organic" to stand on its own feet. Therefore, this level will be the biggest insurmountable obstacle for domestic wines in the next three to five years.

Difficulty 3: Value consciousness. The dark side of domestic food exposed in recent years also exists in the wine industry. 20 1 1, CCTV exposed the fake wine incident in Changli, Hebei province, 20 12, and Changyu's drug residue incident was raging. Shandong Yantai generation can also provide a large number of so-called "ultra-low-cost original wine". The self-discipline of domestic food industry practitioners is still worrying, which comes from the processing industry. On the other hand, the disorder of competition in the domestic market has also led channel providers to reduce procurement costs again and again, forcing manufacturing enterprises to reduce manufacturing costs again and again, even shoddy, forming a vicious circle. These two problems come down to the lack of value consciousness and moral consciousness of industry practitioners, and the solution of this problem can not be realized overnight, so the next three to five years will also become a major difficulty affecting the development of domestic wine.

Third, the imported wine market has great potential.

We analyze that it is difficult to make a breakthrough in domestic wine in the next three to five years, because there are three major difficulties. However, the rapid growth of China wine market is inevitable, so there are huge opportunities for importing wine. This opportunity also stems from several advantages of imported wine: First, China people still think that imported brands have profound cultural connotations, especially those of the old world. There is a saying in the wine industry: foreigners watch and drink, while China people watch and drink more, which means it is unique to China people. Second, compared with domestic wines, imported wines are richer in categories and consumers can be more selective. Let's not talk about how many wine producing areas there are in the old and new world, and how many kinds of specialties each region has. For a simple example, there are almost no excellent sparkling wines in domestic wines at present, but sparkling wines are deeply loved by the younger generation. What do we do then, sparkling wines from all over the world have landed on the beach; Third, compared with domestic wine, the market price of imported wine is opaque, which is more conducive to maintaining channel profits, which is also a very important aspect. These three aspects boil down to one point: the development of domestic wine industry is limited, and the clothing industry is an obvious example. Ten to fifteen years ago, almost all the high-priced clothes in China market were foreign brands, but with the rapid development of China's clothing industry, now our real estate in Fujian, Guangdong and other places are almost national brands. If the domestic wine industry can get rid of restrictions and develop at a high speed, the future market structure will be completely different.