Who will take over Afghanistan’s 3 trillion “treasure”

In November 2007, Chinese companies made a "big news" in Afghanistan:

The international bidding joint venture formed by China Metallurgical Corporation and China Jiangxi Copper In one fell swoop, it won the complete mining rights of Aynak, the world's second largest undeveloped copper mining area, for a full 30 years.

Aynak District, Khanlugar Province, Afghanistan

The abundance of copper in the earth’s crust is only 0.01%, but it is inaccessible from daily life to industrial production. Important metals. Generally speaking, as long as the mining cost is low enough, copper veins with a grade higher than 0.2% are worthy of development. Once the grade of the vein exceeds 0.7%, it can be regarded as a standard rich ore. The average copper content of the Aynak vein in Afghanistan's South Lugar Province is as high as 1.56%.

In addition to its rich taste, its large scale is another characteristic of Aynak. A large amount of survey data shows that the total ore reserves contained in this vein are as high as 705 million tons. If converted based on average taste, this is almost 11 million tons of pure copper!

As the largest copper mine project owned by a Chinese company overseas so far, investors have placed high hopes on it. According to the construction plan, in addition to the refinery, a 400,000-kilowatt thermal power plant, a large water source pumping station, and a supporting fertilizer plant that processes associated phosphate rock into fertilizer will be built in the mining area. The preliminary construction work will take about five years, and once the Aynak copper mine is officially mined, it will have the ability to produce 220,000 to 300,000 tons of refined copper annually.

Of course, this is a standard reciprocal project, and Chinese companies are by no means the only ones to benefit. Because according to the agreement between the two parties, the main labor force required in the mining area will be recruited locally based on the principle of proximity. The basic labor force required in the mining area alone can provide more than 10,000 long-term jobs for the local area. In addition, the mine will also follow domestic customs and build public service facilities such as children's schools, exclusive hospitals, and even mosques to solve the worries of local workers.

For the poor people in Lugar Province, the Aynak copper mine project should have been an opportunity to change their destiny

In order to facilitate the early transfer of building materials and equipment, and For subsequent shipment of finished copper products, Chinese investors even plan to build a railway system connecting to Pakistan around the mining area.

According to estimates, MCC-Jiangxi Copper is expected to invest more than US$4.2 billion in the first five years of construction of the mine. However, once the project is put into production, its annual output value will reach more than 1.2 billion US dollars. Not only can it transport in-demand copper materials to the domestic market every year, but the huge economic benefits radiated from the mining area and the railway system will also spread to the entire Khanlugar Province, benefiting more than 100,000 surrounding residents.

Such a win-win project naturally makes the Afghan government extremely happy. Therefore, the progress of the initial stage of the Aynak project can be described as extremely smooth.

In May 2008, the MCC-Jiangxi Copper Consortium formally signed a contract with the Afghan government; in July 2009, the groundbreaking ceremony was held grandly at the project camp in Lugar Province. By the beginning of 2010, the road system leading from Kabul to the mining area had been completed, and the dormitories for construction workers were basically completed, waiting for the builders to move in.

The builders’ camp was beginning to take shape

But just before the full-scale construction was about to begin, something happened.

After preliminary surveys, the ancient ruins discovered on the edge of the Aynak mining area were confirmed to be the remains of an ancient Buddhist temple. It was built at least 2,600 years ago and is likely to be one of the early temples of Buddhism.

Out of a sense of responsibility, Chinese companies investing in mining areas have designated a protection area of ??up to 3,000 acres for the heritage site and promised to set aside three years for cultural relic protection. However, this good intention was scorned by the French archaeologists responsible for the preliminary survey.

The French expert declared: Because the cultural relics in the ancient Aynak Temple are so rich, "Ten years is not too much, and three years may be just enough to complete the recording of all the cultural relics."

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As a place where Eastern and Western civilizations meet, similar ruins are almost everywhere in Afghanistan. Many of them have not been looked at for decades. But only when Chinese companies started to work on projects, the ruins It became a relic

Although the main body of the site is outside the mining area, mining and protecting the historical monuments could not interfere with each other, but foreign experts with nostrils turned upward can always find reasons, such as: Changes in foundation stress may cause the hillside where the ancient temple is located to collapse, vibrations caused by heavy mining equipment may damage the ruins, and even the dust raised by the mine may contaminate the ruins of the ancient temple. These can all be cited as reasons for blaming Chinese companies.

< p> All in all, China’s copper mines must be shut down before the protective excavation of the site is completed!

It is purely a question of which side the European and American media will take between Chinese companies on one side and European archaeologists on the other. The issue of "butts will decide" soon filled newspapers and the Internet with all kinds of articles that smeared and criticized Chinese investment companies in Afghanistan. Major European and American media outlets did their best to cover environmental protection and cultural relics protection. 360-degree denigration and criticism of Chinese investment companies from various angles such as business ethics and human conscience.

In the eyes of European and American "white leftists", mining and blowing up the Bamiyan Buddhas are the same.

The media set the pace, which naturally triggered the carnival of European and American Internet mobs. As a result, a mining project that could have completely changed the local economy and lifted tens of thousands of Afghans out of poverty was favored by European and American media and people. In his mouth, it has become an existence comparable to the atrocity of blowing up the Bamiyan Buddhas.

What is secretly happy behind this public opinion frenzy is the US government that regards Afghanistan as its taboo. With public opinion in place, the U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan quickly jumped out from behind the scenes and began to take the stage to engage in various open-fire maneuvers.

On the one hand, it put pressure on the Afghan government. , calling for "protection of human cultural heritage"; on the other hand, the US Embassy announced that it would allocate a special fund of 1 million US dollars to support the "rescue excavation" of the ancient Aynak temple site.

Now that someone has distributed "dog food", you can imagine what will happen next.

Soon, a group of so-called "field archaeological experts" gathered and drove into Aina. Ke mining area. Under the leadership of an extremely lazy Polish "archaeological expert", this group of people started their "rescue excavation" in the spirit of "ten years is not a lot of time". , that is, a full 9 years

As long as the U.S. funds are in place, can we actually continue to use the ear spoon? 9 years

From 2011 to the beginning of 2020, this group of experts His work efficiency is so low that it is doubtful that he has been working on the site with a spoon behind his ears during these nine years. What's even more outrageous is that after the global outbreak of the new coronavirus, its Polish team leader used the epidemic as an excuse and flew directly back to Poland, never to return.

At this time, if we count the start of preliminary construction in July 2009, the Aynak copper mine project has been idle for twelve years...

As a Chinese enterprise so far, The largest investment in Afghanistan to date, the Aynak Copper Mine suffered so tragically that its entire process was sorted out and summarized as a negative teaching material by many domestic investment institutions. Of course, despite the suspension of operations so far, the mining rights of the Aynak copper mine are still in the hands of the MCC-Jiangxi Copper Consortium. In the past month or so, with the sudden change in the situation in Afghanistan, a turning point seems to have occurred.

A country begging for food with a golden rice bowl in hand

Contrary to many stereotypes, in fact, Afghanistan cannot be regarded as "poor" in terms of the distribution of natural resources.

Around 2008, led by the National Geological Survey and supported by the National Geographic Society, the U.S. government conducted a systematic natural resource exploration of about 30% of the Afghan territory under the direct control of the U.S. military. Distribute survey work. In 2010, the results of this two-year investigation were made public in the form of a report.

Here, let’s talk about the conclusion first – the report believes that Afghanistan is a country rich in underground mineral resources.

According to the exploration and analysis of the United States National Geological Survey, the mineral resources in Afghanistan include: iron, copper, cobalt, gold, silver, aluminum, mercury, lithium, rare earth and other important mineral resources. Within the US military-controlled areas alone, there are multiple iron and copper ore belts, containing 2.2 billion tons of iron (average grade exceeds 50%), 60 million tons of copper, and 1.1 to 1.4 million tons of rare earths. Especially for the latter, all reserves are located under an extinct volcano in the Khan Nassin area of ??Helmand Province in southwestern Afghanistan. Not only is it easy to mine, it is also rich in very precious medium and heavy rare earth minerals.

The most common terrain features in Afghanistan: mountains, and occasionally mountain valleys and plains

The report finally concluded that only 30% of Afghanistan’s land was surveyed. , the total value of proven mineral deposits reached US$908 billion.

Of course, the report is also very forward-looking and does not ignore some emerging resources of strategic significance, such as lithium.

Around 2008, stimulated by the general trend of warming globalization, the new energy era has slowly begun. In view of the importance of lithium in the new energy industry, the US National Geological Survey particularly emphasized when writing the report that the lithium ore reserves in Afghanistan may reach tens of millions of tons. In particular, the Jamanakar-Ghazni mining area in Ghazni Province in the central-eastern region not only has spodumene reserves of more than 30 million tons, but the mineral conditions are suitable for low-cost open-pit mining.

Spodumene produced in Afghanistan

However, under the international order led by the United States, Afghanistan has no chance of "becoming Saudi Arabia".

Since the beginning of this century, the United States launched an invasion on the grounds of the war on terrorism and established the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. This country, which has long been under the wings of the United States military power, has been a United Nations development organization. A member of the "World's Least Developed Countries/Regions" list.

In 2020, Afghanistan’s national GDP was only US$19.807 billion, but its total population was 36.37 million, so its per capita GDP was only a ridiculous US$690.375, and 90% of the people lived on an average of less than US$2 a day. .

In this country, 90% of the people live on less than 2 US dollars a day.

What is even more sad is that the country’s national unemployment rate is between 30 and 40% all year round. fluctuation. The extremely high unemployment rate has caused a large number of young people with no future to gradually slide into the abyss of extremism. Therefore, it is a huge irony that this country, which is stationed by the world's most powerful anti-terrorism force, has become a breeding ground for new extremist forces...

The Afghan government during the US occupation was not No effort has been made for self-reliance and self-improvement. The farce of blood and tears at the beginning of this article about the development of the Aynak copper mine by a Chinese company is one of the most famous attempts that ended in failure. This failure also brought extremely serious consequences to the development of Afghanistan.

According to United Nations data, Afghanistan has received no new "greenfield investment" (that is, investment projects in which foreign companies establish operations in Afghanistan from scratch) in the past 2019 and 2020. Even since 2014, only four companies have made greenfield investments in Afghanistan.

U.S. military station in Kabul. Separated by a wall, there are two worlds

In 2017, the Afghan government released a follow-up report based on the US National Geological Survey's exploration report seven years ago. The report lists various new exploration resource projects in the country and claims that the country's total mineral wealth, including fossil fuels, is as high as US$3 trillion. However, this bait did not impress international investors. The reason is that it is the high-hanging "heads" of MCC and Jiangxi Copper in the Aynak mining area that make all investors instinctively distrust such a country.

It is true that the farce that happened in Aynak is not actually a crime of the Afghan government.

After all, American power is like a cancer rooted in the body of Afghanistan. As long as it continues to exist, this country will inevitably end up begging for food with a golden rice bowl in hand.

Afghanistan’s mess

When the time reaches the second half of 2021, things are changing.

Since July, with the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban (hereinafter referred to as "Ata") is rapidly filling the vacuum after the withdrawal of U.S. troops, and then seizing power across the country. In early August, as Atta moved into the outskirts of Kabul, the U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed. The change of political power in Afghanistan has become a foregone conclusion.

The Taliban fighters who first entered Kabul

However, what Atta inherited was a mess that was no longer bad.

"The Taliban will win the war, and now they have to govern Afghanistan," Ahmadi, the former acting governor of the Central Bank of Afghanistan who fled with the help of the US military, declared on social media a few days ago. He also warned Atta that even if he seizes state power, he will face unprecedented financial difficulties.

This warning is certainly not a lie or the vent of a frustrated person, because the current financial crisis in Afghanistan was dug by Ahmadi and others with his own hands.

Before fleeing Afghanistan, senior officials of the former government had already taken away and transferred all the small foreign exchange reserves. As for Afghanistan’s national gold reserves, they have been stored in the Federal Reserve’s underground vault at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan, New York, since 1939. The US government will never transfer this 22 tons of gold reserves to Atta.

Afghanistan’s 22 tons of gold reserves will not be recovered for a while

According to foreign media estimates, even if Atta quickly completes the regime change in Afghanistan, it will have heavy consequences for banks and banks across the country. Financial institutions have undergone a thorough clean-up, and all foreign exchange reserves they can control are only 0.1-0.2% of the original, amounting to millions of dollars.

Some people may want to say that if the foreign exchange is gone, it is just a matter of time to accumulate it slowly.

However, what must be emphasized here is that what Afghanistan needs in particular right now is money, hard currency. Because Afghanistan has always been short of food.

There are two main reasons for food shortages. The first is population problems. Since the mid-1990s, Afghanistan's population has entered a period of rapid growth. By the end of 2020, Afghanistan's total domestic population has increased from less than 15 million in 1995 to 36.37 million.

The population is growing rapidly, but the cultivated land has not increased, and even the growth rate of unit yield is very limited. Since the US military entered Afghanistan, the irrigation system in its southern grain-producing areas has not even undergone major repairs and maintenance. As a result, by 2019, Afghanistan's food self-sufficiency rate had dropped to around 50%.

Farmland on the southern plains of Afghanistan

For a long time, Afghanistan’s food gap was barely covered by aid from the United States. But now, with the withdrawal of American forces, this kind of assistance can no longer be counted on. However, if you want to purchase food from the international bulk market, you must spend hard currency. Faced with the Afghan treasury that was almost wiped out, Atta was powerless.

Another issue Atta urgently needs to face is the government's operating funds, which is also related to money.

In order to achieve a smooth transition of state power, Atta made multiple announcements earlier this month. Not only did it announce an "amnesty" for former government workers, it also required them to stick to their posts as much as possible to ensure the normal operation of the state machine. However, even if these civil servants are willing to change jobs, they still need to receive wages to support their families.

According to data released by the former Afghan government, the government’s annual operating budget was approximately US$2 billion. According to a 2018 United Nations Security Council report, the Taliban's highest annual income from 2010 to 2017 was only around US$1.6 billion.

In other words, with Atta’s current income situation, he is unable to maintain the operations of the national government.

What's more, people across the country are still short of half of their food rations, and millions of tons of food need to be purchased from outside to cope with the crisis.

"Afghanistan has rich mineral resources such as lithium, and South Korea leads the development of global electronics manufacturing. I believe both parties can win."

On August 23, Atta Abdullah Kahal Balki, a cadre of the Organizational Culture Committee, said so in an interview with Yonhap News Agency. This statement also sent two clear messages to the outside world:

The first thing to bear the brunt is the changes in this organization-after nearly two decades of development, the Atta organization has gradually transitioned to It is a relatively normal state power that intends to establish stable and good relations with other countries in the world. On the other hand, in the face of the current huge financial pressure, Atta is willing to exchange Afghanistan's natural resources for foreign funds and assistance.

So, who will go to Afghanistan to invest in lithium mines and other resources? Obviously not South Korea.

Where is the way out?

Although Afghanistan has a considerable amount of natural resources, there are only a handful of countries that are truly willing and able to pay for them. The main reason is geographical constraints.

As we all know, Afghanistan is a landlocked country with mountainous terrain. Various mineral vein resources are also distributed along the trend of the main mountain ranges in the territory. Therefore, whether it is to open a mine or transport minerals out of the country, how to open a road is the first serious problem that foreign investors must face.

In order to develop a mining area, investors must first build a road and then transport materials to the mining area through the road to start construction. As for how to transport the ore or refined semi-finished products after the construction of the mining area is basically completed, it is another issue that needs to be considered. When Chinese companies were developing the Aynak copper mine, they planned to build a railway from the mining area to Pakistan to transport copper to China through Pakistani coastal ports.

There is no doubt that anyone with a little common sense will understand that operating in the above mode will inevitably cost a lot of money. However, this is the only correct option when developing minerals in Afghanistan. After all, no one can afford to use planes to transport commodities.

Because of this, although South Korea’s new energy industry has extremely huge demand for lithium, Afghanistan is not an ideal source of lithium raw materials. Because Korean companies can easily obtain relatively cheap lithium directly from the "ABC Triangle" in South America or the "Seven Mines" in Australia through maritime transportation lines, so why bother to go to the deep mountains of inland Asia to work hard? What about the land for development and construction?

However, the same problem has a completely different perspective for China.

Compared with South Korea, which is small in size, China has a vast territory, extending deep into the hinterland of the Asian continent and directly bordering Afghanistan. In recent years, in order to bridge the development gap between different regions in the country, the Chinese government has continuously introduced new Taiwan policies to encourage the relocation of manufacturing and industrial bases to the hinterland. This is the so-called "Western Redevelopment." Many manufacturing companies are also attracted by preferential policies and relatively low labor costs in inland areas, and are gradually relocating westward.

Manufacturing is moving to China’s inland

Against the above background, the advantages of shipping raw materials are gradually being offset by the cost of inland transshipment. Especially for those industrial bases located in Xinjiang, if there is a railway starting from the Indian Ocean, spanning the entire territory of Pakistan, and reaching Xinjiang Province, the transportation cost will be higher than unloading goods on the eastern coast of China and transporting raw materials across mainland China. Shipping to Xinjiang will save at least more than 4,000 nautical miles of shipping costs. What's more, since China and Afghanistan are directly connected by the Wakhan Valley, if the proposed China-Pakistan Railway can build a branch line through this area, its effectiveness can be further amplified.

In recent years, with the continuous strengthening of infrastructure in Xinjiang, the local demand for steel has been increasing day by day. Even if the Bayi Iron and Steel Group located in Urumqi is operating at full capacity, the market is still in short supply. However, considering that Bayi Iron and Steel's local iron ore supply is only 60%, increasing production capacity must obviously be done with caution. At this time, the rich iron ore in Afghanistan showed its value.

Bayi Steel is working overtime, but its products are still in short supply

Similarly, with the advancement of my country's new energy strategy, whether it is the construction of energy storage power stations or the development of new energy vehicles, Soon, we will go deep into the hinterland of our country. If the lithium resources in Afghanistan can be used to develop the power battery industry in Xinjiang, then this province in China, which is farthest from the ocean, will have the opportunity to develop into a new energy industry center in western my country and even in Central Asia.

"The spiders are weaving their webs in Caesar's palace, and the night owls have finished singing their night songs in the tower of Afrasiab."

Not long ago, when Afrasia As the Tajik armed forces approached the Afghan capital, the "Saigon Moment" was repeated in Kabul after 46 years.

Tens of thousands of Afghans who had served for the U.S. occupation forces rushed to the airport frantically, trying to escape their fate on U.S. military planes. However, only a few people are destined to get what they want.

Saigon moment and Kabul moment

Although many people were unwilling to do so, they clung to the landing gear of the transport plane and forced it to take off without hesitation. However, they were destined to crash back to the ground shortly after takeoff.

"What fell from the landing gear of the US military plane were not only Afghan lives, but also Western values." Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova commented.

"It's time to roll up our sleeves and build Afghanistan."

"It's time to roll up our sleeves and build Afghanistan." On the night of August 24, Atta spokesman Suhail Shaheen This is what he said on his personal Twitter page. The tweet was accompanied by a photo of construction vehicles repairing the road. Afghanistan is entering an era of change. The same is true for the entire world.