Quantitative Analysis of the Outline of the Tenth Five-Year Plan

The 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development in People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Outline of Long-term Goals in 2035 are hereinafter referred to as the Outline, with a total of 19 chapters and about 65,000 words. In this paper, it is compressed to about 3700 words, and the reading time is about 6 minutes. Through the quantitative analysis of its details, I hope it can help my friends' life and work in the next five years.

? Master Drucker said that if things cannot be measured, they cannot be managed. Quantitative analysis is a good way to measure things. What are the priorities of China in the next five years? Throughout the full text, the outline can be summarized as 20 social development indicators, which are divided into five categories, namely, economic development, innovation-driven, people's livelihood well-being, green ecology, security and so on. Among them, economic development is the core indicator. From this indicator, we find the first feature of the outline, that is, by 2025, the country has no clear growth target, only that it will remain in a reasonable range, and each year can be put forward according to the situation of each year. Its meaning is clear.

Throughout the Outline, we get two cores, namely, improving efficiency and moving towards harmony. So what is the grasp of efficiency and harmony? We further quantitatively analyze 20 indicators, and the top five indicators with the biggest numerical changes in the next five years are:

First, the number of infants under three years old per thousand people will increase from 1.8 to 4.5, with a change rate of1.50%;

Second, the number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 population has increased from 6.3 to 12, with a change rate of 93%;

Third, the proportion of the added value of core industries in GDP in the digital economy has increased from 7.8% to 10%, with a change rate of 28%;

Fourth, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP decreased18%;

5. Energy consumption per unit GDP decreased13.5%;

It is not difficult to see that the three underlying variables that promote China's reform are population, science and technology and green, which lead to five major directions, while science and technology variables lead to scientific and technological innovation and digital China; Population variables lead to the development of one old and one small and urban agglomeration; Green variables lead to new energy, urban agglomeration and digital China, and also promote the expansion of domestic demand and industrial upgrading.

The synchronous transformation of domestic demand and industry, in turn, can lay the foundation for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, which is a big game for China.

The first is technological innovation. In the future 15, China will go all out to be driven by innovation. In 2025, the gross enrollment rate of higher education will increase to 60%, which means that the employment of college students will become the absolute focus of the job market. So how to avoid involution of college students? Only through scientific and technological innovation can we get rid of dependence and sail to the sea of stars with high added value. Everything here is based on scientific research.

? The outline is divided into seven major items: artificial intelligence, quantum information, integrated circuit, brain science and gene technology, clinical medicine and deep-sea base. It gives many details. For example, artificial intelligence mentioned the research and development of special chips and the construction of a deep learning framework platform. These two areas are the defensive points that China urgently needs to make up for the shortcomings; For example, quantum information mentions that quantum communication is a powerful attack point on China; For example, in the fields of integrated circuit design tools and advanced technology of material research and development, we have both defensive points and breakthrough points. For example, the flexible screen production technology we talked about before has become a breakthrough point in China.

Second, there will be industrial cooperation with R&D, so emerging industries have also set clear goals for the government. In the next five years, the added value of emerging industries will account for more than 17% of GDP, including a new generation of information technology, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, new energy vehicles, green environmental protection, aerospace and marine equipment, etc., which are also closely related to industrial upgrading. Among them, the manufacturing industry has the greatest potential for upgrading. Today, China's manufacturing industry is being completely transformed. This time, the outline clearly pointed out that the manufacturing industry should fill the shortcomings of the foundation, and China Manufacturing is setting off a big wave of conquering basic parts, basic software, basic materials and basic technologies. So what sub-sectors will emerge in this wave? The outline lists eight core upgrading areas, namely, high-end new materials, major technical equipment, intelligent manufacturing and robots, aero-engines and gas turbines, Beidou industrial applications, new energy vehicles and smart cars, high-end medical equipment and innovative drugs, and agricultural machinery and equipment. I believe that in the next five years, these eight fields will create a large number of new engineering research positions.

? Thirdly, there is another way to create new jobs, that is, the arrival of digital China, where there are not only science students, but also liberal arts students. In the future, the wave of digital economy, digital society and digital government in China will not stop, and digital technology and real economy will be deeply integrated, giving birth to a large number of new industries and new models. The Outline lists seven digital economy industries and 10 digital application scenarios. These seven industries are cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things, industrial Internet, blockchain, artificial intelligence and virtual reality/augmented reality. Of course, some of these technologies may not shine in the next two to three years, such as blockchain and AR/VR, but this does not mean that they have no future at all. Some technologies may wait longer than most people think. For example, artificial intelligence, 1956 only appeared, but it really matured for 60 years.

In addition, there is 5 G. By 2025, the penetration rate of 5G users will increase by 56%. It will be integrated with many industries such as cloud computing, Internet of Things, industrial Internet, Internet of Vehicles, etc., and generate 10 digital application scenarios, namely, intelligent transportation, intelligent energy, intelligent manufacturing, intelligent agriculture and water conservancy, intelligent education, intelligent medical care, intelligent travel, intelligent community, smart home and smart government affairs. Generally speaking, the road of scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading is doomed to be long, but the right path in the world is vicissitudes, which may be the only way for China to break through involution.

In the matter of knowledge and technology innovation, the country has firm determination and clear thinking, which is definitely a good thing for the vast number of young people. Next, the supply capacity released by innovation needs demand capacity to undertake. This "Outline" clearly puts forward a word, which is to expand domestic demand and promote the green, healthy and safe development of consumption projects, which will promote the entropy reduction of the whole social consumption field, so the rise of new consumption in the future is unstoppable. Such as information consumption, digital consumption, green consumption, customized consumption, experience consumption, fashion consumption and so on. At the same time, we should also encourage the rise of independent brands in China, on the one hand, develop Chinese time-honored brands; On the other hand, we should enhance the competitiveness of new brands. The outline clearly points out that priority should be given to cultivating high-end brands in China, such as cosmetics, clothing, home textiles and electronic products. Both the supply revolution and the consumption revolution mentioned above need population support, but today, the population born in China is declining all the way. The second child was born in 20 16, and the population born in that year was17.86 million, which decreased to17.25 million and 2015.23 million in 20/8. According to this trend, by 2050, the population aged 65 in China may be close to 30%, and there is no doubt that there is an aging society. Therefore, coping with the aging population has become a new module in this outline, and solving the problems of child care and child safety are two key points. China mobilizes social forces to build large-scale community services in 150 cities, and this field will see a 250% growth in the next five years. There will be many new opportunities to explore 100 cities for demonstration reform of child-friendly cities, such as releasing more public spaces and guiding children to carry out extracurricular activities. Frankly speaking, it is very wise for the government to start with the transformation of urban public resources and reduce the burden of parents' care. For the elderly, a home-based community pension system will be established, which means that the home-based community pension system will become the focus. This involves two aspects. One is community transformation, which will support the family transformation of 2 million elderly people with special difficulties, including barrier-free and anti-skid treatment of home improvement elevators; The other is to build an old-age service network. In the next five years, China will build a chain standardized service network for the aged in 500 districts and counties, which will become the largest service network for the aged in the world.

Then in terms of urban construction, the first is the household registration reform. On the one hand, urban settlement will be loosened as a whole, on the other hand, megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai will also streamline points projects; The second is to develop urban agglomerations and urban agglomerations. The development of urban agglomeration in China is divided into three steps. The first level has to be given more and further strengthened, such as the strength of the five major urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River; The second level is not strong enough to strengthen and develop urban agglomerations such as Shandong Peninsula, Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang coastal areas, Central Plains, Guanzhong Plain and Beibu Gulf. The third level is still small. To make it grow up, it is necessary to cultivate urban agglomerations such as Harbin, Changchun, central and southern Liaoning, central Shanxi, central Guizhou, central Yunnan, Baotou, Hohhot, Lanzhou, Xining, the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain and Ningxia along the Yellow River. For China today, the benefits of developing urban agglomerations are very obvious. It will make the efficiency higher, the cost lower, the industry divisible, and the infrastructure available, while satisfying the two contents of efficiency and harmony. Therefore, the trend of developing urban agglomerations in China in the future is irreversible.

Then, with the further advancement of urbanization, how to solve the high housing prices? "Outline" attitude is very clear, or insist on rent compensation. Specifically, it mainly depends on the responsibility of the government, financial regulation, tax regulation and the development of leasing. Among them, the details of developing lease are the most, such as expanding the supply of rental housing, expanding affordable rental housing, improving the legal protection of rental housing, and allowing renters to enjoy the same rights as buyers. The development of urban agglomeration will also promote rural revitalization. On the one hand, the improvement of urban efficiency and green consumption will ease the food pressure in China; On the other hand, China will strictly abide by the red line of 654.38+08 billion mu of cultivated land to ensure absolute food security.

At the same time, with the construction of new rural ecology, 123 industry will continue to merge, so the characteristic industries such as leisure agriculture, rural tourism and homestay economy will also receive a lot of encouragement, which will also give birth to more new opportunities. In addition, the outline also mentioned several key areas, such as the ecological protection of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, the revitalization of the Northeast, the development of the western region and the great rise of the central region. Among these four points, the ecological protection of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River is the most important, which also shows China's determination to move towards a green economy. In the green economy, new energy is the top priority, and the energy consumption per unit GDP will be reduced by 13.5% in the next five years. Carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by 18%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy should reach 20%. China's new energy revolution is giving birth to a rare super track that has been growing for 40 years. Next, similar wind power, photovoltaic power generation, distributed energy, offshore wind power, southwest hydropower and coastal nuclear power will all usher in huge opportunities.

? In addition to the above areas, the outline also covers thousands of details such as finance, ecology, education, medical care, rural culture, opening up, people's livelihood, security, national defense, the rule of law, and one country, two systems.

Finally, I want to talk about my feelings after reading this outline: First, China is forming many very definite slow variables, and the long trajectory is also very rare in the development history of New China. For example, industrial upgrading, new energy revolution, scientific research, domestic brands, child care and the rise of big cities mentioned above are all slow variables. If you bet 65438, they will be overwhelming and you will be disappointed. Second, there are really too many problems to consider in China today. Scientific research, finance, energy, national defense, currency, ecological education, medical care, foreign trade, safety, rule of law, food, transportation machinery, culture, children and the elderly are interrelated and mutually restricted, forming an extremely large and complex system, but we have found the optimal solution to deal with this complex system, that is, reform, which has built a dissipative structure. Zhang Lei, an investor, said that there is no end to running water being the first. And this kind of vitality is interacting with the once-in-a-century great change in the world and achieving mutual success.

References:

Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and its long-term goal in 2035.