What conclusions can be drawn from analyzing the data of the seventh population census?

The data of the seventh census was released a few months ago, so I want to look at the data again and see if I can analyze some interesting phenomena (you can look at the conclusion directly).

1. Changes in the total population-In 2020, the population growth rate of 20 10 was 5.38%, with an average annual growth rate of 0.53%. That is to say, during the period of 10, our birth rate was still slightly higher than the death rate every year, but during the period of 10, because of the second child policy, In my opinion, the decline in fertility rate is caused by two reasons:

1. The heat of the second-generation policy has been consumed, which can be understood as that the dam has been lowered by one layer and the original accumulated flood has gushed out. Therefore, when the policy was just liberalized, it was equivalent to selling the "accumulated goods" for a short period of time, which led to a sudden increase in the birth rate when the policy was just liberalized. Then, with the passage of time, after all the accumulated goods were liberalized, the birth rate would slowly decline.

2. In 2020, the epidemic situation in the whole year caused the national life to be blocked, the economy to be frustrated, and the birth rate to fall off a cliff.

It seems that there is a reason for the decline in the birth rate, but there is a concern that it is normal for the birth rate to decline for a period of time after the policy is liberalized, but the degree of decline is a bit too great. Before the release of the second child, the annual birth population was basically around16.3 million, 2017.86 million and 2017.65 million. It can be seen that the newly born population in 20 18 has a very significant cliff. Everything happens for a reason. I'm trying to find out if anything important happened to 18. At that time, the event of ofo should be felt by most people in the country. In my opinion, the thunderstorm of ofo actually indicates the beginning of the first bubble of the internet bubble-the internet can no longer say that it will succeed as long as there are many people. Under the cover of the nest, there is no end to the egg. The ofo incident will definitely make a large number of domestic companies re-examine their products, and at the same time, capital will be withdrawn from the Internet. The most intuitive impact of capital withdrawal on ordinary people is that some people's income will decrease, but most people are just some people. In addition, the other influence of ofo may be that people in this industry may feel less secure. The decrease of security will delay the process of men and women forming families. (However, compared with the whole country, the number of people affected by the ofo incident is still too small, which should not be counted as the main factor, just because I happen to be in this industry, so let's talk about it. Besides, I didn't seem to find anything that could affect the whole country (I graduated in 18, but my graduation should not affect the birth population), and then I went to find what happened before 17, and then I found 17.

It can be seen that the soaring housing prices in 16 and 17 in the past two years are very conspicuous. As for why house prices have risen so fast in the past two years, it is beyond the scope of this article. It can be said that the rapid rise of housing prices in the past two years has a high correlation with the cliff-like decline of the population born in 18. The internal cause may be that the rapid rise in housing prices has delayed the pace of people forming families (how can they get married without a house? )

From this, we come to a simple conclusion:

In the past ten years, the number of births has been decreasing continuously, even falling off a cliff. First, because of the epidemic, it is just an emergency, which can be completely alleviated in the later stage. Second, house prices are rising rapidly, which is difficult to reverse. If house prices continue to soar, the birth population should continue to decline. If it is a slow rise, the birth population should slowly decline and eventually remain at a relatively stable value. The forecast of the population born in the next few years should be improved, because the epidemic situation has eased and rebounded, and the total amount should be higher than 19, and the subsequent trend will be randomly determined according to the trend of house prices.

Then there is the death toll. According to the historical data, it can be found that the annual mortality rate is slowly rising (except for 16, two children have expanded the denominator). The main factors affecting the mortality rate are as follows:

1. Population age

2. Nutrition level

3. Food and shelter

Access to clean drinking water

5. Medical standards

6. The extent of infectious diseases

7. The extent of violent crime

8. Conflict

9. Number of doctors

10. Climate

Of the above points, only the first is a possible factor (other China will not go backwards in recent years, right? ), indicating that our population composition and the proportion of the elderly are gradually increasing in recent years. Looking back at the data of the seventh population census:

Compared with 20 10, the proportion of people aged 0- 14, 15-59 and over 60 increased by 1.35 percentage points, decreased by 6.79 percentage points and increased by 5.44 percentage points respectively.

It can be seen that in the past ten years, our age composition has shown the characteristics of an increase in the proportion of the elderly population, a decrease in the proportion of the middle population and a slow growth of the new population.

Here, according to our previous conclusion that the probability of birth population is slowly decreasing year by year, it can be roughly predicted that "the ratio of newborn population to middle population will continue to decrease, and the elderly population will continue to increase." In addition, the average age of China has reached 38 years old, and the future aging of China is almost impossible to reverse. "

However, the good news is that from this data, there is no big difference in the proportion of people of all ages in different provinces (although the brain supplement situation is that a large number of people migrate to first-tier cities and other surrounding areas, from the data point of view, this process is very slow, indicating that high housing prices still have their positive uses)

2. Population sex ratio: The sex ratio data of this census has little change compared with the last one, which is 105.07: 100, which is the most balanced one in recent censuses. It can be explained that people's concept of gender discrimination has not broken out in the past ten years, which is a balance in our country that once favored sons over daughters.

However, this data is too general, and the depth of the viewpoint that can be inferred is relatively shallow. Because the significance of the ratio of men to women is mainly related to the people who make up the family, I hope to get the data of the ratio of men to women in different ages and regions, but I haven't found the official official data (or maybe it hasn't been released yet). I found some sample survey data, which is of little significance.

Three. Per capita education level:

Compared with the sixth national census in 20 10, the number of people with university education per 100000 increased from 8930 to 15467. The number of high school graduates increased from 14032 to15088; The number of people with junior high school education dropped from 38,788 to 34,507; The number of people with primary education dropped from 26,779 to 24,767.

It can be seen that there are more and more highly educated people in China, which is certainly true. First, because there is output every year. However, due to the expansion of university enrollment in previous years, the growth rate is even higher.

However, it is worth mentioning that the enrollment expansion started from 1999. Assuming that according to the current admission rate of 1999 (the real situation is definitely increasing year by year), those college students should be around 40 years old now. It can be said that the first batch of people in China haven't quit the job market, and the word "involution" has become popular up to now. It is conceivable that the degree of involution may continue to deepen in the future. As a result, more and more people may feel that it is not easy to get a job and the pressure is getting bigger and bigger. They think that reading is just a "form" (graduate students can actually do it without this job in a cigarette factory, and the difference is such a diploma). In this case, the concept of "taking the exam" will become more and more solid.

There is a very good metaphor in the inner volume: a train, with more and more people pouring in, will eventually make everyone's ride experience very poor, leading us to go to the platform in advance to avoid crowding, but in the end we will spend more energy and take the same journey. In recent years, the internet can be said to be a new train, but this train is now full and there is no sign of a new train.

It can be concluded that with the continuous export of highly educated talents in China, but there is no new consumption space, the involution of China will gradually deepen in the future. If there is no big change in the admission rate and the number of trains, it is estimated that it will reach its peak when the first group of people leave, that is, 20 years later, and then the degree of involution will stabilize.

Four. Proportion of urban and rural population:

In the national population [3], the population living in cities and towns is 90 199 1 162, accounting for 63.89% (the urbanization rate of registered population in China is 45.4% in 2020 [4]); The population living in rural areas is 509,787,562, accounting for 36. 1 1%. Compared with the sixth national census in 20 10, the urban population increased by 2364 15856, the rural population decreased by 1643 1984, and the proportion of urban population increased by 14.2 1 percentage point.

It can be seen that the ratio of rural population to urban population is still rising, indicating that the ratio of rural population to urban population has not slowed down, and more people will turn from rural population to urban population in the next few years.

This shows that more people will flood into cities in the future, and there is still room for housing prices to rise. On the other hand, the population density in rural areas will decrease, and there may be a farming situation with fewer people and more people in the future (envy farmers' life haha).

To sum up: (the complete data has not been released yet, and may be updated when it is released)

1. During this decade, the number of births has been decreasing continuously, even falling off a cliff. First, because of the epidemic, it is just an emergency, which can be completely alleviated in the later stage. Second, the rapid rise in housing prices is difficult to reverse. If house prices continue to soar, the birth population should continue to decline. If it rises slowly, the birth population should decline slowly and eventually remain at a relatively stable value. The forecast of the population born in the next few years should be improved, because the epidemic situation has eased and rebounded, and the total amount should be higher than 19, and the subsequent trend will be randomly determined according to the trend of house prices.

2. The proportion of newborn population in the middle population will continue to decline, and the elderly population will continue to increase. In addition, the average age in China has reached 38, and it is almost impossible to reverse the aging in China in the future. "

3. With the continuous export of highly educated talents in China, there is no new consumption space, and the involution of China will gradually deepen in the future. If there is no big change in the admission rate and the number of trains, it is estimated that it will reach its peak when the first group of people leave, that is, 20 years later, and then the degree of involution will stabilize.

There will be more people flooding into cities in the future, and there is still room for house prices to rise. On the other hand, the population density in rural areas will decrease, and there may be a farming situation with fewer people and more people in the future (envy farmers' life haha).