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Main exchanges for global carbon emissions: EU carbon market, US Regional Greenhouse Gas Reduction Initiative (RGGI), South Korea, New Zealand, China carbon market

Core data for this article: pilot provinces and cities Cumulative quota transaction volume in the carbon market, national carbon emissions trading transaction price, EU carbon market transaction transaction price, US Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Initiative (RGGI) transaction transaction price

National carbon emissions trading transaction price on the first day Increased 6.73

In 2011, 7 provinces and cities including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangdong, Hubei, and Shenzhen were selected as carbon emissions trading pilot areas; in June 2013, 7 local pilot carbon markets began one after another Online trading; in 2016, Sichuan and Fujian started pilot carbon emissions trading systems; in 2017, the "National Carbon Emissions Trading Market Construction Plan (Power Generation Industry)", and in 2020, the "National Carbon Emissions Trading Management Measures (Trial)" (Soliciting Comments Draft) and "National Carbon Emissions Rights Registration, Trading and Settlement Management Measures (Trial)" (Draft for Comments), 2021 "Carbon Emissions Rights Registration Management Rules (Trial)", "Carbon Emissions Trading Management Rules (Trial)" and " The "Carbon Emission Rights Settlement Management Rules (Trial)" have been promulgated one after another, and the construction of a national unified carbon emissions rights trading market has accelerated.

On July 16, 2021, the national carbon emissions market went online for trading, and local pilot markets coexisted with the national carbon market. Before the establishment of the national carbon emissions trading agency, the national carbon emissions trading market trading center was located in Shanghai, and the carbon quota registration system was located in Wuhan. Enterprises registered accounts in Hubei and conducted transactions in Shanghai. Both of them were responsible for national carbon trading. The backbone of the system. The power generation industry became the first industry to be included in the national carbon market, and more than 2,000 key emission units were included. The carbon emissions of these enterprises exceeded 4 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

On July 15, 2021, the Shanghai Environmental Exchange issued the "Announcement on Matters Related to National Carbon Emissions Trading (Shanghai Environmental Exchange [2021] No. 34)". The trading method of national carbon trading adopts the protocol Transfer, one-way bidding or other methods that comply with regulations.

As of June 2021, the cumulative quota trading volume of the pilot provincial and municipal carbon markets has reached 480 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, with a transaction volume of approximately 11.4 billion yuan. On July 16, 2021, the national carbon market carbon emission allowance (CEA) listing agreement transaction volume was 4103953 tons (equivalent to more than 4.1 million tons), the transaction volume was 210230053.25 yuan (equivalent to more than 210 million yuan), and the closing price was 51.23 yuan/ton. An increase of 6.73 from the opening price.

There is room for growth in national carbon market prices

In 2020, the impact of the epidemic will have a negative impact on the carbon market. However, as various carbon markets gradually tightened the issuance of carbon quotas, and various countries formulated A higher voluntary emission reduction contribution goal has been set, "carbon emission reduction" and "carbon neutrality" are in a higher strategic position, and the carbon price is gradually rising.

In 2019-2020, due to the expected tightening of EU emissions trading system rules and the reduction of free carbon allowances, the ETS carbon price doubled from an average of 25 euros per ton to 50 euros per ton in early May 2021 about.

From 2020 to 2021, the U.S. RGGI carbon market price will show an upward trend. The initial quota issuance of the RGGI carbon market is mainly based on auction, and an auction is held every quarter. In the second quarter of 2021, the average US RGGI auction transaction price was US$7.97, an increase of 4.9 from the previous quarter, and the total transaction volume was 22.99 million tons.

Theoretically, when the carbon quota price is higher than the carbon price of the marginal cost of emission reduction, the carbon emissions trading mechanism can effectively play its role in promoting corporate energy conservation and emission reduction.

Currently, the national carbon market adopts a relative total control mechanism: taking the total power generation of enterprises included in key emission units as the benchmark value, the quota amount of each enterprise is calculated. Considering that the initial stage of national carbon emissions trading will not add too much cost burden to enterprises, the current carbon emission quota depends on the total power generation.

Judging from the latest transaction prices in various local carbon trading pilot markets, the transaction prices are in the range of 9-51 yuan/ton. Combined with the closing price of the national unified carbon trading market of 51.23 yuan/ton, with the With the gradual tightening of quotas, there is room for rising prices in the national carbon market.

According to the "2020 China Carbon Price Survey" jointly released by China Carbon Forum, ICF International Consulting and Beijing Zhongchuang Carbon Investment***, the initial national carbon emissions trading price is about 49 yuan/ton. It is expected to reach 93 yuan/ton in 2030 and exceed 167 yuan/ton in the middle of this century.

——The above data refers to the "China Forestry Carbon Sequestration Industry Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" by the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute