How did Guan Yu die? The truth is terrible.

Guan Yu's death happened at the key point that Liu Bei and Sun Quan finally finalized, which triggered many speculations of later generations. History does not allow assumptions, but we can restore the truth of history step by step by proving or falsifying assumptions.

Guan Yu's death can be divided into three views.

First, the situation in the battle of Xiangfan changed dramatically, and Liu Bei had no time to rescue it. This was an accident. Guan Yu couldn't save himself, so he died between Scylla and Charybdis.

The second is a conspiracy: Liu Bei/Zhuge Liang killed Guan Yu with Sun Quan's knife;

The third is laissez-faire: First of all, the battle of Xiangfan changed too quickly, and Liu Bei made Guan Yu's life and death under various trade-offs.

First of all, the death of Guan Yu and the loss of Jingzhou are two events. Guan Yu's death has a strong correlation with Jingzhou's fall, but it does not constitute an absolute causal relationship; For Liu Bei, the death of Guan Yu may be acceptable, but the loss of Jingzhou is absolutely unacceptable. These are two important positions to look at this incident. Influenced by the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, folk beliefs and the legend of "Three Marriages in Taoyuan", it is not flattering to doubt the brotherhood between Liu Bei and Guan Yu. I don't talk about feelings here, just look at gains and losses.

The battle of Xiangfan took place after Liu Bei entered Hanzhong. At this time, Liu Bei crossed the favorable landscape and reached the peak of his own strength. However, from the perspective of "enter the dragon", it is far from reaching the level of "if the world changes, Jingzhou Army will turn to Wan and Luo". So Guan Yu's Northern Expedition violated Liu Bei's national policy. But the battle of Xiangfan was surprisingly good, so Liu Bei may be very contradictory at this time:

Not supporting Guan Yu, wasting the achievements of the Northern Expedition; Sending troops to support, on the one hand, involves the strategic situation of Cao Cao and Sun Quan, on the other hand, Yizhou and Hanzhong are unstable, and it is normal for Liu Bei not to release grain and send troops to help.

However, Liu Beiqiang is better than Sun Quan. When the Northern Expedition was good, Liu Bei did not share Sun Quan's stable allies, which paved the way for the reversal of the situation. At that time, sun quan must be very contradictory: if Cao Cao and Liu Bei died, sun quan could not live alone; To unite with Liu Bei depends on whether Liu Beifang really unites Wu against Cao. At this time, Sun Quan became a spy: he sent someone to propose to Guan Yu's daughter for his son.

It can be said that this proposal has become an important decision-making point in the history of the three countries. If Guan Yu agrees, the strategic goal of Liu Bei and Sun Quan sharing the world equally may be realized. But Guan Yu insulted and refused to get married. When the Sun-Liu Alliance needed unity most, it fell apart because of Guan Yu's pride, which directly led to the fall of Jingzhou.

It was proved that Liu Bei wanted to kill Guan Yu with a knife because he didn't send troops to help Guan Yu. This reason is not sufficient. On the one hand, the situation in the early stage of the battle of Xiangfan was too good; on the other hand, Liu Bei's headquarters was not well prepared; on the other hand, Liu Bei, Sun Quan and even Zhuge Liang underestimated Sun Quan's determination. For Liu Bei, Jingzhou is the foundation of reviving the Han Dynasty, but for Sun Quan, Jingzhou is also the premise of consolidating Jiangdong. If two people can't be in-laws, they can only be enemies.

Then the result gradually became clear: Monroe crossed the river in white, Guan Yu died in battle, and Jingzhou belonged to Sun Quan-since then, Liu Bei's plan to rejuvenate the country has almost become a bubble, and his attitude in the later period of the Three Kingdoms has basically taken shape. Liu Bei may accept Guan Yu's death, but he can never accept Jingzhou's loss, so the battle of Yiling is only a matter of time.

This historical event is complicated, but we can infer the following points:

1. If Liu Bei really killed Guan Yu with a knife, he would never have gone to Jingzhou for this. If Guan Yu really wants to die, Liu Bei will also strengthen the protection of Jingzhou, so as not to lose Jingzhou when Guan Yu dies. But Liu Bei did not strengthen protection.

2. Liu Bei did not strengthen the protection of Jingzhou. Maybe it's because the situation is changing too fast to respond (unexpectedly), or maybe he is too contemptuous of Sun Quan to believe that he will attack Jingzhou. Judging from the long-term contacts between Liu Bei and Sun Quan, the latter is unlikely, so the conspiracy is unlikely.

3. Guan Yu was the chief culprit in the breakdown of the Sun-Liu Alliance. The battle of Xiangfan developed into the battle of Jingzhou, and Liu Bei's feelings for this brother must be very complicated. There is still the possibility of letting him live and die.

To sum up, the conspiracy theory of Guan Yu's death and Jingzhou's loss is based on Liu Bei/Zhuge Liang's "kill the minister first and then destroy the enemy", and the strategy is very insufficient and impossible; There are possibilities of contingency theory and laissez-faire theory. Judging from the later Liu Feng incident, the Yiling War (two years later) and Guan Yu's title (Miao Zhuang), laissez-faire theory is quite possible.